What problems have been exposed by the impact of the financial crisis on China's banking industry?

The global financial crisis has further escalated into a global economic crisis. This has brought a huge impact on China's investment and export-led economic growth model that has lasted for many years. Since the second half of last year, China's economic growth rate has fallen sharply, industrial production has slowed down significantly, business operations have become more difficult, fiscal revenue growth has declined, and the asset market has continued to slump. The impact of the global financial crisis on China's economy has spread from export industries to many export-related industries such as raw materials, processing and transportation, from developed coastal areas to remote areas in the mainland, and from small and medium-sized enterprises to large and medium-sized state-owned enterprises. China's economy is facing the most difficult moment since entering the new century.

Because the domestic banking industry is not deeply involved in the international market, coupled with the isolation of commercial banks from the capital market in recent years and the effective implementation of prudential supervision policies by the regulatory authorities, the financial crisis has little direct impact on China's banking industry, and the direct losses suffered by domestic banks are limited. However, finance is a reflection of economy. If the economy goes wrong, it will definitely go wrong. At present, the impact of the financial crisis on the real economy is increasingly reflected in banks, and domestic banks are facing increasing risks, operating and profit pressures. From the perspective of business development, in the case of economic downturn, cold market and frustrated confidence, the functions of banks as social financing intermediaries, payment intermediaries and wealth management intermediaries have been greatly suppressed, whether it is general loan business such as corporate credit, personal credit and trade financing, or corporate bond business such as corporate bonds and interbank bonds; Whether it is payment business such as POS consumption, agency service, custody, settlement and clearing, or wealth management business such as QDII, foreign exchange investment and structured products, it is difficult to expand the market. From the perspective of risk prevention, under the superposition of the global financial crisis and the domestic economic downturn, the risks faced by banks are constantly showing systematic, chain-like and sudden characteristics and trends, including industry risks, credit risks, interest rate exchange rate risks, liquidity risks, operational risks, compliance risks and reputation risks, which are intertwined and mutually influenced. If the bank is not careful, it may fall into the abyss. From the perspective of profitability, the growth rate of bank's net profit will obviously slow down this year and even in the future. It is difficult to reproduce the situation of extraordinary growth in the past under the comprehensive effect of factors such as weakening effective credit demand, narrowing deposit-loan spreads, rising interest expense, weak growth of intermediary business, gradual increase of risk assets and substantial increase of provision expenses.

However, the crisis also contains the factor of opportunity, as the British writer Bridger said, "The Chinese word' crisis' is divided into two words, one meaning danger and the other meaning opportunity." Indeed, crises are always accompanied by opportunities, and crises are organic. As long as you are good at discovering, grasping and firmly grasping the opportunity in the crisis, the crisis will become a turning point. Judging from the development law of things, everything is a unity of contradictions, and the strength of both sides of contradictions will change with the change of the situation, and the primary and secondary positions will be reversed, thus making a qualitative change. The so-called "misfortune and happiness depend on it, and happiness and misfortune lie in it" is the truth; From the perspective of business cycle theory, the economy always operates in four stages: prosperity, recession, depression and recovery. After the depression, there is a new round of recovery. Therefore, the famous economist Schumpeter once said, "Don't worry about the crisis. For the market economy, depression is a good sobering agent "; From the historical and practical experience, it is precisely because of seizing the opportunity in the crisis that many enterprises have achieved leap-forward development, such as the global rise of IBM after the Great Depression, the glory of Japanese automobile industry after the oil crisis in the 1970s, and the take-off of Samsung Electronics after the Asian financial crisis. In short, crises often shake old rules and promote changes, thus becoming a turning point in major historical events.

It should be noted that although the current situation poses a severe challenge to the operation of China's commercial banks, it also contains many unprecedented opportunities. This is mainly reflected in the following aspects:

1, the strong implementation of the national policy of expanding domestic demand.

In order to ensure the steady and rapid economic growth in China, the central and local governments have invested heavily in infrastructure, livelihood projects, ecological construction and post-disaster reconstruction, and introduced a series of measures to accelerate the process of rural urbanization and agricultural industrialization. This will greatly stimulate the expansion of domestic investment demand and consumer demand, and the investment of 4 trillion yuan will provide corresponding credit demand, especially providing new opportunities for banks to intervene and expand government financing platforms, project financing, medium and long-term loans, syndicated loans and other businesses in a timely manner.

Second, the reshuffle of the main structure of the market.

Under the impact of the financial crisis, the market mechanism of survival of the fittest will make profound changes in the market structure, and a new wave of mergers and acquisitions among enterprises will once again set off. The latest issue of Thomson Reuters Asia-Pacific M&A quarterly report shows that in 2008, M&A activities in other parts of the world declined, and the transaction scale fell by 29.6% to $2.9 trillion, while M&A activities in China remained strong, soaring to a record high of $654.38+0596 billion, an increase of 44% compared with 2007. This trend is expected to continue in 2009. At the same time, the characteristics of the rise and fall of the industry will be further highlighted, including eco-environmental, service outsourcing, e-commerce, new materials and new energy applications, and a large number of sunrise industries will rise rapidly. This not only broadens the development space of M&A loans, financial consultants and other businesses of banks, but also expands the potential value customer base of banks.

Third, accelerate the implementation of enterprise adjustment and transformation.

In order to effectively cope with the crisis, enterprises change their business model, optimize product structure, strengthen independent innovation, implement technological transformation and upgrading transformation, and pay more attention to multi-product, multi-customer, multi-channel and multi-market marketing strategies. For example, in the Pearl River Delta region, which was hit hard by the financial crisis, enterprises, especially small and medium-sized private enterprises, generally accelerated the pace of active adjustment and transformation, and accelerated the transformation from production-oriented enterprises to market-oriented and innovative enterprises by changing exports to domestic sales, improving product design capabilities, and increasing investment in scientific research. In only half a year, 47 processing enterprises with materials in Dongguan have been transformed into foreign-funded enterprises, and 52 enterprises have actively applied to create their own brands. In Foshan, more than 200 private enterprises have successfully transformed and upgraded in Nanhai District alone. On the other hand, local governments at all levels have solved practical difficulties for enterprises in terms of funds, land and taxes, and reduced the burden on enterprises. There are many preferential policies and strong support, which are rare for many years. Through its own upgrading and transformation and the strong support of the government, the ability of enterprises to resist the financial crisis will be significantly enhanced. This reduces the bank's operational risk and helps the bank to better expand its business, especially the financing business such as medium and long-term loans, equity financing and accounts receivable factoring financing.

Fourth, the dynamic adjustment of residents' asset allocation.

In recent years, with the continuous improvement of income level and the renewal of financial consumption concept, residents' demand for financial management and wealth management is increasing day by day, and this trend will not be reversed because of the financial crisis. According to incomplete statistics, the sales scale of wealth management products of domestic banks exceeded 2.3 trillion yuan last year, about three times that of 2007. Moreover, with the intensification of market volatility, residents pay more attention to the structural adjustment of their asset pools and are more willing to dynamically adjust asset allocation. According to relevant surveys, about 90% banks believe that stock market fluctuations have a great impact on savings deposits and interbank deposits, which fully reflects the distinctive dynamic transformation characteristics of residents' asset allocation. Therefore, as long as banks constantly enrich their product systems and actively adapt to the changes in customer needs, wealth management business and private banking business still have great development potential under the current situation.

Fifth, the pattern and strategy of horizontal competition have quietly changed.

Many large foreign-funded financial institutions have been impacted or damaged to varying degrees in this financial storm, which has made some high-quality and high-end customers choose to do business in Chinese banks, and the reputation of Chinese banks has been significantly improved. In the domestic banking market, many peers have implemented the strategy of adjusting customer structure and business structure, shrinking or withdrawing some businesses and markets, thus making room for other banks to selectively intervene. In addition, at present, the awareness of cooperation between non-bank financial institutions such as funds, securities and trusts and commercial banks is obviously enhanced, which brings great opportunities for banks to better expand their inter-bank business and cross-sell products.

Sixth, direct financing instruments have developed rapidly.

In order to expand social investment and ease the financial pressure of enterprises, the government has increased the expansion of the bond market. In addition to actively encouraging enterprises to issue traditional bonds such as corporate bonds, corporate bonds and medium-term notes, they also actively promote the development of new debt financing tools such as detachable bonds, short-term financing bonds for floating rate bonds and small and medium-sized enterprises, and collective bonds. According to statistics, in 2008, the national circulation of credit bonds including corporate bonds, corporate bonds, short-term financing bills and medium-term notes reached 943.3 billion yuan, which was 1.72 times that of 2007. This year, the circulation is expected to reach 1.2 trillion yuan to 1.3 trillion yuan. Among them, the circulation of corporate bonds in the exchange market may reach 654.38+050 billion yuan. In addition to vigorously developing the bond market, the China Municipal Government will also accelerate the construction of multi-level capital markets, and the growth enterprise market and other emerging markets will accelerate their development. The rapid development of direct financing not only poses a severe challenge to bank financing business, but also promotes the development of investment banking business such as bank bond issuance and underwriting, special financial consultancy, and further expands the cooperation space between banks and enterprises.

Seventh, industrial regional transfer has been accelerated.

Under the double squeeze of increasing cost and shrinking market, labor-intensive and resource-processing industries in coastal areas are gradually moving inland, and more factors of production will be driven by profit-seeking to accelerate the flow to the central and western regions with high marginal returns. According to the analysis of relevant experts, it is estimated that the large-scale industrial transfer in the eastern coastal areas will be completed in about five years. By 20 10, the industrial output value to be transferred in Guangdong, Shanghai, Zhejiang and Fujian provinces alone will reach about140 billion yuan. This undoubtedly provides new opportunities for banks to provide supporting financial services and better expand the central and western markets.

Eighth, the space expansion of RMB bond investment.

In 2008, with the change of the tone of monetary policy from "tight" to "moderately loose", the bond market went out of a wave of rising prices, driven by the weakening of interest rate hike expectations and abundant funds. The average annual investment income of fixed-income products such as bonds reaches about 6.52%, which greatly exceeds that of stock financial products, and there is a bond investment boom in the market. This year, in view of the more severe macroeconomic situation, it is foreseeable that monetary policy will remain loose and the price level will remain low. In this context, continuous interest rate cuts will promote the continuous release of liquidity in the money market, which will create a new environment for banks to further optimize the RMB bond portfolio, expand long-term bond investment opportunities and improve the yield of RMB bond portfolio. At the same time, the regulatory authorities have started the pilot work of listed commercial banks participating in bond trading in stock exchanges, and actively studied the introduction of bonds with higher yields in the inter-bank market, which will greatly improve the activity and trading volume of China's bond market, help banks to further improve bond investment channels and improve investment returns.

Ninth, the demand for hedging and arbitrage of cross-border enterprises has increased.

At present, the trend of international commodity market and financial market is confusing, especially the fluctuation of foreign exchange and gold market is increasing, the risk of cross-border operation of enterprises is increasing, and the demand for hedging and arbitrage is also increasing. Authoritative survey shows that the demand for foreign exchange hedging of enterprises in China is rising, and nearly13 of enterprises hope that banks can provide more exchange rate risk management products. This is conducive to promoting the in-depth development of local and foreign currency, offshore and domestic and foreign linkage business of banks, and promoting the innovative development of structural hedging and value-added products based on the exchange difference and spread of local and foreign currencies.

10, a good opportunity to attract talents.

Due to the financial crisis, foreign financial institutions laid off a large number of employees, and many outstanding overseas financial talents chose to return to China for employment. For example, the "Guangzhou Science and Technology Exchange Conference for Overseas Students from China" held in Guangzhou at the end of 65438+February last year attracted nearly 1800 overseas students from 30 countries and regions. Among them, doctors accounted for 5 1%, which exceeded half of the total number of applicants for the first time; In the past, financial and legal talents accounted for a small proportion of 15%, and more than 80 of them worked on Wall Street. Undoubtedly, the return of foreign talents has further aggravated the buyer's market characteristics of oversupply in the domestic talent market, and provided a rare opportunity for banks to find and hire all kinds of professionals, especially senior financial talents.

In short, in the face of the current situation that challenges and opportunities coexist, difficulties and hopes coexist, as long as we strengthen our confidence, seek opportunities in times of crisis, learn to analyze problems, research methods and formulate countermeasures with dialectical and unified thinking methods, and adhere to "prudence and positivity", the domestic banking industry will certainly be able to successfully survive the severe economic winter and maintain sustained, healthy and stable development.