To what extent will the medical industry be replaced by artificial intelligence in the future?

Artificial intelligence can only replace people in some specific scenarios.

In the AI field of the medical industry, part of it is the ability of big data and algorithms, which can establish more accurate analysis models. Powerful and complex computing power combined with visual display will definitely replace traditional medical care.

Then there is more sophisticated intelligent manufacturing equipment, which reflects the infrastructure of AI, which is also an equipment that traditional medical care cannot surpass.

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After reading it, you will know how unreliable modern medical diagnosis is from the perspective of probability theory. It can also be seen how difficult it is to be reliable. This is only a theoretical requirement, not including practical difficulties.

It is gratifying that modern medicine has greatly improved the survival rate of human beings.

The poor performance of human beings in the field of diagnosis does not mean that machines can adapt well, but depends on the root cause of diagnosis errors.

Modern western medicine likes to use laboratory indicators to treat diseases, which well abandons the uncertainty of data in the diagnosis process and quantifies more symptoms. But this level is still very low, so experienced old experts are still very valuable.

In the future, more symptoms will be quantified and more indicators will be replaced by daily monitoring of wearable devices. Human body representation diagnosis may become a function that can be launched at any time, and diagnosis will become trend monitoring. Going to the hospital may be completely unnecessary.

Even if we go, the trend of tens of thousands of indicators for a month in a row is not a job that human beings can be competent for. Manual diagnosis may completely withdraw from the historical stage.

Clinicians, pharmacy doctors, radiologists and even surgeons will almost always be replaced. If the cost of technical equipment is low enough, small-scale hospitals may disappear.

There are no more doctors, nurses and pharmacists.

Before answering the title question, I ask you to think about the following question. If you or your family are sick, will you allow a medical robot and artificial intelligence (AI) to check, diagnose and prescribe for you or your family? Will you accept a robot as your attending doctor? If so, what else will human clinicians do?

In the medical industry, we have always been fascinated by the possibility that artificial intelligence can understand, reason and learn, that is, help us make better use of information. If we simply look at individual fields such as clinical diagnosis, artificial intelligence can already replace doctors. For example, the application of IBM Watson has gradually matured, focusing on tumor diagnosis and achieving breakthroughs in nine major areas, such as chronic disease management, precision medicine and in vitro testing. For example, Invisalign orthodontics can partially replace the work of senior orthodontists. Artificial intelligence will be applied to all aspects of medicine. At present, artificial intelligence has many specific application examples in early detection, diagnosis, decision-making, treatment, hospice care, scientific research, training and so on.

Of course, people will also boldly infer that artificial intelligence can completely replace doctors. In particular, artificial intelligence and robots have always been the theme of science fiction. For example, the medical robot "Dabai" in Super Marine Corps, it is best to perceive, calculate and record your daily health, and provide you with health protection at any time, so that you can reach and maintain the "best" state of your body or mind or find abnormalities early. Frankly speaking, things like Great White are not just things in science fiction. Artificial intelligence and robots for support, diagnosis and treatment have been used in homes, workplaces and clinical environments all over the world. In the next 10 year, we will not discuss whether doctors will be replaced by artificial intelligence (the shortage of doctors is a problem in all countries), but how to supplement and strengthen the current medical services by using artificial intelligence and robotics, which determines whether we can provide more responsive medical care services, improve medical effects, and enable people to better manage their daily health needs.

Artificial intelligence can not completely replace real people in medical treatment, but can only be an auxiliary tool for people, or artificial intelligence can not work independently of people.

Generally speaking, artificial intelligence is incomparable in accuracy, speed and durability. However, all these must be controlled manually, and cannot be done completely independently.

In terms of emotion and friendliness, machines can't compare with people. For example, if the patient's anesthesia effect is not good, the machine can't perceive the patient's pain, can't grasp the severity of the operation well, and can't minimize the patient's pain like people.

Even if the machine "learns" and stores a huge amount of data and materials, these data and materials are based on the premise of not exceeding human intelligence. In other words, these things are made by people, and machines can be combined with these things indefinitely, but they can't be combined at will in medical treatment, so we must strictly screen out useful things.

I feel that artificial intelligence only plays an auxiliary role. Artificial intelligence can diagnose ordinary patients according to the patient's medical records and stored relevant information, so that rigorous work procedures can pick out what problems and prevent medical troubles.

Moreover, some precise operations can also use artificial intelligence, because the machine is more calm and will not be influenced by emotions, and the programmed steps are more precise, and dangerous operations are safer to implement.

Of course, the above-mentioned medical applications of artificial intelligence also need people as the main body.

When everyone is appointed as the governor, the medical treatment of hospital doctors has become the evidence of stupidity of modern people, and its stupid history in recent decades has become a memory and joke in people's hearts.

Speaking of artificial intelligence

People have been exploring its practicability.

I hope to play a role in more fields.

Let's take a look with Bo Sauce today.

AI+ medical treatment

What kind of collision will it be?

Policy boost, rapid development of the industry

In recent years, the state has issued a number of national and special policies on medical artificial intelligence, which fully reflects the importance attached to the AI+ medical field at the national level. On April 20 18, the General Office of the State Council issued the Opinions on Promoting the Development of "Internet+Medical Health" drafted by National Health Commission and other ministries. The "Opinions" released multiple favorable policies: recognizing the legitimacy of "Internet hospitals"; Support prescription outflow; Promote the "internet plus" medical insurance settlement service.

In addition, the research work of "confirming the right" of medical electronic information is under way; The "Opinions" clarify that by 2020, hospitals above the second level will generally provide online services such as time-sharing appointment, intelligent guidance, waiting reminder, inspection result inquiry, outpatient settlement, and mobile payment.

Driven by national policies and the demands of various medical fields, the market scale of medical artificial intelligence industry in China has expanded rapidly, with a compound growth rate of 3 1.98% from 20 17 to 20 19, which shows that the industry has great potential. According to the statistics of Chinese Institute of Electronics, by 20021,the market scale of medical artificial intelligence industry will reach 7.53 billion yuan.

Four medical application scenarios of artificial intelligence

AI+ medical imaging

Medical imaging is a qualitative and quantitative analysis of patients' image data, which is usually an important diagnostic basis for clinicians. The medical industry is a personal experience processing and judgment with a large amount of data, which currently depends on various tests, images and other data and information of patients by doctors. This requires artificial intelligence to process massive data quickly and efficiently, and analyze the data differences that people can't detect, which may determine the judgment of diseases; Secondly, through machine learning, artificial intelligence can transform expert experience into algorithm model, which makes expert experience copied at low cost.

AI+ aided diagnosis

The role of auxiliary diagnosis is to support doctors' clinical diagnosis and treatment decisions. Thanks to the accumulation of human early clinical diagnosis and treatment knowledge base, after the integration of artificial intelligence, the doctor's diagnosis and treatment level has been greatly improved, which not only improves the early detection rate of diseases, but also reduces the missed diagnosis and misdiagnosis rate in clinic; At present, the main application scenarios are guiding robot, electronic medical record and virtual assistant.

AI+ drug research and development

Drug research and development refers to the whole process of a drug from discovery, to preclinical and clinical research stages, and then to approval for marketing. Artificial intelligence can rely on excellent algorithm advantages to virtually screen drug candidate compounds, thus gradually reducing the research and development cost of new drugs; In addition, because it also has deep learning abilities such as language processing and image recognition, it can continuously optimize and analyze the potential relationship between drugs and diseases through big data.

AI+ health management

The concept of health management was first born in America. It begins with the systematic health management of some potential high-risk patients by medical insurance institutions, so as to achieve the purpose of controlling or delaying the occurrence and development of diseases, thereby reducing the probability of their own risks and reducing the corresponding compensation costs. At present, its main application scenarios focus on risk identification, virtual nurses, mobile medical care, wearable devices and so on.

The pain point of insufficient medical resources in China can be greatly improved after the combination of artificial intelligence and medical care. With its excellent algorithms and big data analysis, artificial intelligence can continuously penetrate into the data resource layer and technology application layer of related service platforms. In addition, it can also reduce the overall medical cost and realize the application in medical imaging, auxiliary diagnosis and treatment, health management, new drug research and development, disease prediction, virtual assistant, process management, research platform and so on. Improve the overall medical level in China.

Examination and traditional Chinese medicine can realize remote online diagnosis, the robot bull's-eye is more targeted, the drugs released by the robot are almost harmless to the body, and the robot is basically used to relieve the pain of chronic diseases. The operation doesn't need many nurses and doctors. One person directs, one makes decisions, and the other operates the mechanical arm. If it develops forward, it directly simulates the human body, and the arm is connected with the operation lever to perform the operation.

China medical big data has entered the initial favorable stage, and it is expected to usher in a good momentum of rapid development under the stimulus of policies and capital.

The application of big data in the medical field has not only brought profound changes to traditional medical care, but also fundamentally changed China's medical habits, from the original "treatment" to "prevention".

The development of medical big data can not only reduce the medical expenses of individuals to the country, but also effectively improve the efficiency and quality of medical and health services and expand the supply of resources. Many favorable feedbacks will further stimulate the formation of new formats and economic growth points.

For the development of medical big data, the attitude of our government is very clear. From 20 15, in just three years, a number of support policies have been introduced one after another. The Guiding Opinions on Promoting and Standardizing the Application and Development of Health Care Big Data issued by the State Council on 20 16 not only clearly stated that health care big data is the basic strategy of national development, but also clearly standardized the direction of the integration and opening-up of health care, medicine, public health and medical insurance big data. The national strategy promotes the construction of medical institutions, regional informatization and the application of medical big data, and accelerates the formation of medical big data industry.

Moreover, in the "Healthy China 2030" planning outline released on 20 16, the future development market of medical big data is clearly pointed out. It is reported that the total scale of health service industry will reach 8 trillion by 2020 and 16 trillion by 2030, and the industry prospect is extremely broad.

Today, medical big data has become an important basic strategic resource of the country. With the continuous promotion of "Healthy China 2030" and the construction of medical big data centers in pilot provinces and cities nationwide, the medical big data industry will continue to develop in a standardized way in the future.