Will pure electric vehicles replace gasoline vehicles in the next decade?

Don't worry! Pure electric vehicles will not replace fuel vehicles in the next decade. The United States, Japan, Britain, Germany and other western countries have enough technology! Several decades ahead of China. Look at how many pure electric cars they have running on the road, most of them are fuel vehicles. In fact, pure electric vehicles are not really environmentally friendly. Running batteries will also pollute the environment, and so will the exhaust gas emitted by all power plants. According to the current technology in China, there is still a long way to go for pure electric vehicles to replace fuel vehicles.

Prediction: It will take a long time to complete the transformation and comprehensive replacement within five years.

Although the popularity of diesel locomotives has spanned three centuries, it has only been a hundred years since it became a means of transportation on a large scale. In the long river of history, a hundred years is only a flick of a finger, but it is this "flick of a finger" that consumes billions of years of slowly formed oil to less than 35 years of service life, resulting in serious greenhouse effect emissions (comprehensive industrial emissions).

If it is not controlled, it can be said that fuel vehicles will inevitably bring disaster, and industrial emissions cannot be stopped because they are closely related to life; Therefore, fuel saving and emission reduction can only start from cars. To what extent has it been carried out at present?

Many people think it is unrealistic to ban the sale of fuel-powered cars. But it does not need to be analyzed based on environmental protection, energy reserves, emission hazards, conversion efficiency and other professional fields. The plan to stop fuel vehicles announced by major car companies is the most convincing proof.

It seems that the common low-end options of joint venture brands and luxury brands are ready for transformation. Changan BAIC, a self-owned brand, is a state-owned car company, and BYD Great Wall Geely, a private car company, can be transformed at any time (Great Wall Motor will be affected to some extent).

To sum up, it is a foregone conclusion that fuel-powered vehicles will stop production and sales in the future, and the time node is most likely in 2025. This is consistent with the signal released by the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology in the past two years. In fact, it was basically confirmed after the announcement of Changan Automobile Shangri-La Plan.

Therefore, in less than ten years, fuel vehicles will become a thing of the past. As long as the main car companies complete the first step, the remaining fuel vehicles will become "heterogeneous", and the reversal of consumption concept is actually only an instant.

In 2020, electric vehicles will basically solve the problem of high manufacturing cost of power batteries. The new LFP lithium iron phosphate battery has achieved the same volume energy density as the traditional NCM, and the safety level has been improved several times, reaching the service life of one million kilometers SOC ≥ 80%. More importantly, is the manufacturing cost only NCM's? ~? In other words, the same battery cost can double the capacity and there is no need to worry about battery life.

Hybrid electric vehicles will be divided into two types: PHEV parallel plug-in hybrid electric system will retain the internal combustion engine drive unit, and the vehicle performance can reach the standard of "1+ 1 > 2" for internal combustion engine and motor. REEV is also available for ordinary fast-moving cars that pursue low energy consumption. The manufacturing cost of this extended-range electric vehicle is lower, and even without charging, the equivalent energy consumption can be half lower than that of the fuel vehicle of the same class.

At present, what we need to wait for is the opening of comprehensive transformation. By then, electric vehicles with long battery life, extended-range trams with ultra-low prices and hybrid vehicles with ultra-high performance will wait for the bus one after another. At this time, even low-priced fuel vehicles will be eclipsed.

From the perspective of scientific and technological development, it is an inevitable trend that cars and planes powered by liquid fuel are replaced by "pure electric" power energy, not the cause of "oil" depletion, but the wisdom of human scientific and technological civilization.

"Pure electricity" energy power will also be different from the existing "battery" structure. It is a pure electric energy source driven by a new type of "magnetic" material "sprayed on the outer layer of the vehicle and the aircraft for photosynthesis and friction" and the "wave" and "ray" conversion of electric energy. This technology will make human space navigation no longer limited by fuel load, so "pure electricity" is the inevitable trend of human civilization development.

Pure electric vehicles will replace fuel vehicles, but it is impossible to completely replace them. It is planned to be implemented step by step in major cities, and fuel vehicles will be delisted before 2030.

Pure electric vehicles are suitable for short-distance traffic and fixed-line rail transit. Do not use complicated roads and long-distance transportation. Replacing gasoline vehicles is a gradual process. At that point, I stopped when I found it was not working. If the technology can't solve it, then stop.

The energy density of pure electric vehicle battery is the key, and the reliability of performance improvement should also keep up. Safe and reliable technology can be popularized.

The cruising range of electric vehicles has been improving, and the price will be cheaper later. The price cost of energy density batteries is declining, and the more market share of electric vehicles, the greater the cost advantage. Only when manufacturers make money can they continue to invest in research and development, accelerate technology output and promote electric vehicles to occupy the market. So as to ensure that the fuel vehicle is completely replaced.

Therefore, electric vehicle manufacturers should work hard on the needs of users and understand the market demand. Blindly follow the trend, no development.

Not for another hundred years.

Pure electric vehicles are a false proposition and will not replace gasoline vehicles in the next decade. Because the coal used for power generation is also polluted, and the pollution caused by waste batteries is greater than that caused by gasoline vehicles.

With the development of science and technology, anything is possible.

Substitution is impossible, but more and more attention will be paid to the marketing of non-fuel vehicles to reduce air pollution to the environment. In the future, not only electric vehicles, but also other energy sources will appear one after another. With the rapid development of society, it is not necessarily electric vehicles that will replace fuel vehicles in the next step.

I am very optimistic about the development of electric vehicles.

In the next five years, domestic electric vehicles will reach 15%.

In the next 10 year, the number of domestic electric vehicles will reach more than 40%.

In the next 15 to 20 years, it will exceed 80%.

By 2050, the bottom test of fuel vehicles will be out of the historical stage.

Become a souvenir in the museum.

After electric vehicles occupy the mainstream of the market,

Our traffic will be quieter, faster, safer and more efficient.

But what kind of energy will be used in the future, whether it is batteries, hydrogen energy or gas, will be converted into electricity first, and electricity will be used to drive the motor.

Because electricity is by far the cleanest, most efficient, safest and lowest transmission cost.

And there are many ways to obtain renewable and clean energy.

I am a green bee, spreading green energy! [Pray] [Pray] [Pray] [Pray]