Sales are stagnant? In fact, there are huge opportunities hidden! Commercial vehicles in 2020 should be sold like this.

Finally, in 2020. This year, my brother not only cares about how badly Yang Mi sings disco the Wolf, but also pays more attention to the annual meeting of domestic commercial enterprises.

"The Age of Intellectual Creation" from faw liberation? Dare to start a new journey? Concentrate on controlling the situation? Dongfeng commercial vehicle's "heavy punch" and "full of trust"? Starting from the heart ",to the" cohesion "of Shaanxi Automobile Commercial Vehicle? * * * Creating the Future "and China Heavy Duty Truck's" New Era "? New heavy truck? New leap ",and finally Foton Motor's" focus on commercial vehicles "? Realize customer value? Leading marketing innovation " ...

It is not difficult to see that all commercial vehicle enterprises have tacitly adopted a unified tacit front in the choice of the theme of the annual meeting-2020 is a year worth fighting for. So, in 2020, where are the challenges and opportunities of the commercial vehicle market in China?

The commercial vehicle market tends to be stable, and the whole market is moving towards the stock market.

Let's talk about the most intuitive sales first.

According to relevant data, the commercial vehicle market also ushered in a bumper year in 20 18. Affected by the macro environment, the production and sales of commercial vehicles reached a record high. Although 4.28 million vehicles were manufactured, 437 1 10,000 vehicles were sold, up by 1.7% and 5 1% respectively.

There is no doubt that the automobile industry, as one of the pillars of domestic industry, plays an important role in promoting the domestic economy to a certain extent. Even under the premise that the automobile market has suffered many years of cold winter and the automobile consumption market as a whole is in a downturn, it is not difficult for the commercial vehicle market, which is closely related to national development and construction, to maintain a steady development trend.

But the luck of 20 18 doesn't seem to last until 20 19.

According to the data of China Automobile Research Institute, the production and sales of commercial vehicles in China are 3.863 million and 3.879 million respectively with 20 19 and11,with output increasing by 0.3% and sales decreasing by 1.6%.

○? Figure? Click on the picture to see a larger image.

Although the data of 65438+February has not yet come out, a simple prediction shows that the production and sales data of 20 19 should be similar to that of 20 18, and the whole should be the same as the latter.

Aside from the specific reasons for the appearance of such book data, what are the reasons? Or, what does this mean?

Don't scratch your head yet Imagine what is the standard for northerners to store Chinese cabbage in winter? That must be on the premise that the whole family is full. Only by ensuring enough weight, mothers of all families will wonder whether it is cabbage Huimian Noodles or stewed tofu with cabbage today.

Similarly, in the commercial vehicle market, the phenomenon of "hoarding cabbage" also applies. According to the above production and sales data, as long as we dig deeply, we will find that the new car market in China is gradually moving from the incremental market to the stock market, and gradually entering a mature and stagnant period.

This phenomenon may imply that the commercial vehicle market will enter a new development cycle of "stock upgrading" in the future, and there may be more interest points for enterprises to carve up in the post-market. Only when the consumer market is saturated can enterprises be forced to complete technological upgrading and stimulate post-market development.

Does benign infrastructure development contribute to the growth of construction vehicle market?

As we all know, the increase or decrease of commercial vehicle market is inseparable from its living environment. Therefore, when analyzing the future market situation of commercial vehicles, we might as well jump out of the industry itself and see what is the development trend of its application market and how much impact it has on commercial vehicles.

First of all, China's status as an infrastructure enthusiast is by no means a hollow reputation. Especially in recent years, from the completion of the first sea-crossing bridge in China and the world's first Gao Qiao, we can get a glimpse of China's strength in infrastructure.

Of course, China is by no means based on pure love. It is precisely because of its large land area that there are too many places to be built in order to maintain people's normal life, and it is basically built for construction.

Earlier, some media reported that "20 19 is not over yet, and the application for pre-approval of local special bonds has ended in 2020, and the estimated scale will reach 1.29 trillion."

In addition, it is worth noting that 2020 is also the first year to achieve a well-off society in an all-round way. Standing at such a time node, I believe that the functional departments have made all-round preparations and continuously narrowed the gap between urban and rural areas by strengthening infrastructure, checking and filling gaps.

If we want to improve infrastructure projects such as commercial buildings, oil and gas transportation, water conservancy projects and transportation facilities, we naturally cannot bypass our commercial vehicles. Otherwise, do you expect to use cars or trolleys to pull building materials to the construction site one by one? Under this premise, engineering vehicles and dump trucks can usher in explosive growth.

Six major trends guide the structural transformation of the industry, and the logistics vehicle market is expected to grow.

Secondly, let's look at another major application field of commercial vehicles-logistics.

20 19129-10, the fifth annual meeting of the national freight logistics industry was held in Beijing, and the 2019 freight logistics industry report released at the meeting pointed out six major trends of the logistics industry in 2020:

1) The growth rate of the road freight market has slowed down and the demand has escalated; ? 2) The freight market is developing in the direction of market organization and intensification; ? 3) The efficiency and refinement of freight enterprises continue to improve; ? 4) The freight industry is more digital, platform-based and collaborative. ? 5) The development direction of freight station and public rail multimodal transport; ? 6) The industrial policy environment is improving.

In addition, according to this report, with the adjustment of relevant national policies, the road freight structure will also be significantly optimized. Due to the change of consumer demand, the supply structure will also change from "large batch, small batch" to "small batch, multi-batch", the traditional vehicle business will be eroded by LTL business, and the special line will be separated by small ticket express delivery, which will accelerate the transformation of market structure.

As for the "last mile" terminal distribution in the express delivery industry, if domestic car companies want to share a piece of cake, I think they should enrich the product pedigree for this market segment as soon as possible. After all, to solve many problems in the last mile, logistics vehicles are the breakthrough.

Whispered: a wise man must have known what he would do in the future when he saw this ~

Commercial vehicle products usher in a new round of technical upgrading.

In 2020, it is also the first year that the toll of high-speed toll will be changed from charging by weight to charging by axis. Although the actual impact of the new charging standards on different industries is unknown, it is not difficult to find out from several explosions of "sky-high tolls" that the work of relevant departments has not been done well.

After the implementation of the new version of the toll road toll vehicle classification standard, all kinds of vehicles will develop to large tonnage very tacitly: two-axle yellow cards will be made into a total weight of 18 tons, and three-axle yellow cards will be made into a total weight of 25 tons.

The lighter the car of the same model, the greater the load. At this time, we can get a new balance point from the income and expenditure relationship between freight rate and vehicle cost, which will be more cost-effective to put it bluntly.

In addition, from the perspective of vehicle structure, with the development and change of economic structure, the supply of goods should also change accordingly. In the past, raw materials of low-end industries were used, but now more goods are consumer goods and electronic products, which will put forward higher requirements for the structure and performance of commercial vehicles in the future.

Various models meet the challenge, and the whole tends to be standardized and intensive.

For light trucks, it may be overloaded from birth, and now it is in an embarrassing situation, especially after "5.2 1". If the problem of "big tons and small standards" is not completely solved, the living space left for it in the future will become smaller and smaller.

Therefore, I think that the future development direction of 4.2 m blue light truck should be light weight and new energy, so it is only a matter of time before it is replaced by micro-trucks.

For medium and heavy trucks, multi-axle vehicles such as 6x2 and 6x4 may gradually disappear in the express delivery industry. After all, express trucks don't have to pull anything particularly heavy. Wouldn't it be more fragrant to switch to a powerful 4x2 vehicle?

On the other hand, for retail investors with unstable supply, it may be a good choice to switch from semi-trailer to 8x4 truck at the moment when the third car is about to withdraw from the historical stage. After all, in the case of bad market conditions, saving tolls is equivalent to increasing income and reducing the risk of car purchase.

As for the darling of the National Sixth Standard-new energy vehicles, it has not brought any good news, and the market performance has fallen sharply in recent years. (20191/month, the production and sales of new energy vehicles were completed 1 1 10,000 vehicles and 95,000 vehicles respectively, down by 36.9% and 43.7% respectively. )

The reason is also a bit intriguing. On the one hand, the technical barriers of new energy are rising, and it is difficult for manufacturers to keep up with the progress of technological upgrading; On the other hand, subsidies continue to decline, and the industry is generally worried that the number and proportion of subsidized vehicles will decrease.

To sum up briefly, with the implementation of a series of government measures, such as upgrading the national standard (OBD monitoring), standardized configuration requirements (GB7258-20 17) and high-speed installation of ETC trucks, it may be implied that the commercial vehicle market will gradually embark on a standardized and intensive development model in the future to maximize logistics efficiency.

Inventory upgrade creates the rise of commercial vehicle market.

After reading these, I believe careful friends will find an interesting phenomenon: the current commercial vehicle market, like the home appliance and mobile phone industries, has no basis for rapid growth, but has a basis for high-quality development.

As mentioned above, the commercial vehicle market has entered a new development cycle of "incremental stagnation and stock upgrading", which means that the aftermarket will attract more development space and drive the development of used car trading, commercial vehicle networking, driver's home and other industries.

Why is the second-hand car transaction also in it?

Quite simply, since the whole industry is carrying out standardized operation, the loss of vehicles should be controllable, and it is possible to increase the residual value rate when trading used cars.

If you dig deeper, you will find that this is one of the reasons why the potential of China's used car market is far from being tapped compared with developed countries.

Experts in commercial vehicle networking have published a white paper before, and interested friends can learn about it. Due to space reasons, I won't go into details here.

Write it at the end

2020 is the closing year of the Thirteenth Five-Year Plan, and whether the development goals previously set by commercial vehicle enterprises can be achieved will also be announced at the end of this year. Facing the future, how to set the goal of 202 1 and how to plan the development direction of the "Tenth Five-Year Plan" is the beginning of future development, and everything needs to be tested by the market.

The year 2020 is a different beginning. Whether the goal set by the commercial vehicle brand can be achieved will not be announced until the end of this year.

Finally, to sum up with the leaders' New Year greetings: Let's seize the day and live up to our youth! In the new year, while being full of hope for the future, we should also be careful in layout and avoid taking the wrong side.

This article comes from car home, the author of the car manufacturer, and does not represent car home's position.