Nourishing soybean with natural protein for agricultural products futures

Yueqing Road _ Soft Hunger, Ask when the bean leaves are yellow?

-Su Shi's "Huanxisha"

plant melons and you get melons; sow beans and you get beans—as a man sows, so shall he reap; reap as one sows

(History of Soybean Cultivation in China)

"Boil beans and burn beans, and the beans cry in the kettle. This is the same root, why rush to speculate with each other? " The seven-step poem of the Three Kingdoms period before 2000 has been passed down to this day, which shows that soybean planting in China has a very long history. Sima Qian of Han Dynasty recorded in the first article of Historical Records of Five Emperors: Zheng Xuan said, "Five kinds, millet, chaff and rice." What is bitter is soybeans. Scholars believe that China has a history of 5000 years of soybean cultivation. However, the history of soybean cultivation in Europe and America is very short, and/kloc-0 was introduced from China in the late 9th century. From 265438 to 1930s, soybean cultivation has spread all over the world.

Although soybeans are planted in most parts of China, the characteristics of regional concentration are obvious. There are two main producing areas: first, the northeast region, including Heilongjiang, Jilin, Liaoning and eastern Inner Mongolia; The other is the Huang-Huai-Hai region, including Henan, Shandong, Hebei, Anhui and other provinces.

Since 1996, with the development of China's economy and the continuous improvement of people's living standards, China's self-produced soybeans can no longer meet the growing needs of residents, so China's soybean imports have increased year after year. In recent years, the annual import of soybeans is as high as 90-95 million tons, and the dependence on imports is over 85%. Imports come from the world's three major producers: the United States, Brazil and Argentina.

Seventy-two changes of a bean

(Processing and Consumption of Soybean)

As a kind of food, soybean is a high-quality and high-content plant protein resource. Its composition ratio of fat, protein, carbohydrate and crude fiber is very close to that of meat food, and it has a high position in the international agricultural products market. As an oil crop, soybean is the most important supplier of vegetable oil and protein cake in the world. The ratio of soybean meal to oil can be 8: 2 per ton of soybean, that is, 0.8 ton of soybean meal and 0.2 ton of soybean oil. Soybean hulls can be mixed with soybean meal to adjust the protein content of soybean meal. Protein is mainly used to supplement the feeding of poultry, pigs and cattle. A small part is used in industrial raw materials and pharmaceutical industry. Soybean oil made from soybean has good oil quality and high nutritional value, and is an important source of vegetable oil.

Soybean meal is the most widely used animal feed in protein and the most nutritious plant feed in protein. About 85% of soybean meal is used to feed poultry and pigs. In recent years, soybean meal has also been widely used in aquaculture. A variety of amino acids contained in soybean meal can fully meet the special needs of fish for amino acids and play an increasingly important role in aquaculture.

Soybean oil is another pressed product of soybean. From the appearance, soybean oil has a certain viscosity, is translucent liquid, and its color varies with soybean seed coat and soybean variety, from light yellow to dark brown, with soybean flavor. Soybean oil is one of the most commonly used edible oils in the world. Edible oil is the main use of soybean oil. The consumption of cooking soybean oil in the world accounts for about 70% of the total soybean oil consumption, while the consumption of cooking soybean oil in China accounts for about 78% and 35% of the total oil consumption.

Soybean oil can not only be eaten directly, but also be used for food processing. Soybean oil can be used to make various edible oils. Such as cold oil, frying oil, shortening, margarine, etc. Oil for food processing accounts for about 12% of the total consumption of soybean oil in China. Another use of soybean oil is for industry and medicine. Soybean oil can be processed into glycerol, ink, synthetic resin, paint, lubricating oil and so on. In medicine, soybean oil has the functions of lowering blood cholesterol and preventing and treating cardiovascular diseases, and is the raw material of traditional Chinese medicine for making linoleic acid pills and Yishouning.

Soybean "Three Kingdoms"

(Major soybean producing countries in the world and seasonality of planting)

At present, the total output of the world's three major soybean producers accounts for more than 80% of the world's total soybean output, of which the United States accounts for about 34%, Brazil accounts for about 33%, and Argentina accounts for about 15%. Soybean production in countries other than the three major producing countries accounts for about 18%.

The cultivation and production of soybean have strong seasonality. The main producers are the United States in the northern hemisphere and Brazil and Argentina in the southern hemisphere. The country where it is located is generally planted in spring and harvested in autumn. So globally, the northern hemisphere harvests one season of soybeans from September to June every year, and the southern hemisphere harvests one season of soybeans from February to April every year.

The growth period of soybean is generally 4-5 months, and the planting and production process is divided into planting period, flowering period, filling period and harvest period. Take the United States and China in the northern hemisphere as an example, the planting period is May-June, the flowering period is from the end of June to the beginning of August, the filling period is from the beginning of August to the end of September, and the harvest period is from 10 to10. Due to the different latitudes of soybean planting in South America, there are some differences in planting periods between Brazil and Argentina.

All the routes to China

(International trade circulation of soybeans)

Soybean is planted and harvested by the three major producing countries and transported to the consumption places, forming the circulation of soybean industrial chain. Among them, the import and export trade of soybeans is the main one, supplemented by the import and export trade of soybean meal/soybean oil.

In the past 20 years, the world soybean export has increased from 45 million tons to1550,000 tons, an increase of1100,000 tons. Among them, China's soybean imports increased from 6.5438+million tons to 90 million tons, an increase of 80 million tons. The increase in other countries except China is around 30 million tons. China's imports are close to 60% of the world soybean trade.

As the largest soybean importer in the world, China has the following shipping routes to transport soybeans from the main producing countries to China: the west coast of the United States can cross the Pacific Ocean to China; Shipment from the mouth of the Mississippi River in the United States can enter the Pacific Ocean from the Panama Canal and reach China; Brazilian and Argentine goods can cross the Indian Ocean to reach China.

Brazil's soybean export has increased from 6.5438+million tons to more than 80 million tons, which is the fastest growing country in soybean export. In contrast, US soybean exports have increased from the initial 26 million tons to the current 50-60 million tons. Argentina's soybean export volume is about 6.5438+million tons, and the year of production reduction may be reduced to about 2 million tons, such as 2065.438+07-2065.438+08.

As the third largest producer in the world, Argentina produces about 55 million tons of soybeans in a normal year, and the proportion of soybean exports is not as high as that of the United States or Brazil, mainly because Argentine soybeans are squeezed at home and mainly exported as soybean meal. Argentina is the largest exporter of soybean meal in the world, with an annual soybean meal export volume of about 30 million tons, accounting for about 45% of the world soybean meal export volume. The importing countries of soybean meal are very scattered. The largest importers are Indonesia and Vietnam, and the annual import of soybean meal is about 5 million tons.

Golden beans grow on black soil.

(Factors affecting soybean prices)

There are many factors that affect the price fluctuation of soybean industrial chain, and the macro aspect is affected by the fluctuation of US dollar index, crude oil price and exchange rate of major importing and exporting countries. The agricultural industry is affected by the supply and demand relationship of related agricultural products such as soybean, corn and wheat. Soybean industrial chain includes the influence of competition in planting area in major producing countries, the crushing situation of domestic and imported soybeans, the supply and demand of soybean meal and soybean oil, the market system, national purchasing and storage, and the supply and demand of other alternative oils and fats.

The global soybean harvest is divided into two periods in the northern and southern hemispheres. The soybean harvest time in South America (Brazil and Argentina) is from March to May every year, while the soybean harvest time in the United States and China in the northern hemisphere is from 9 to 65438+10. So there is a centralized supply of soybeans once every six months.

The disastrous weather leading to reduced production has a great impact on soybean prices, especially in the United States and Brazil, because the soybean production in the United States and Brazil accounts for more than 30% of the world soybean production. Among the weather problems affecting soybean production, the market is more sensitive to the dry weather with high temperature and little rain, because soybean is a crop that likes water and fears drought. Rainy years are generally easy to cause a bumper harvest of soybeans, while dry years are often accompanied by a sharp rise in prices. Other planting period problems will also have an impact on the price, such as delayed sowing or inability to sow in some areas due to the rainy season, deterioration or failure to harvest soybeans due to the rainy season, and the impact of pests and diseases on soybean yield.

At present, Brazil's soybean production has been equal to that of the United States, and it is already the largest soybean exporter. Therefore, during Brazil's soybean export, the fluctuation of Brazil's real exchange rate has a great influence on the international soybean price. The sharp depreciation of the real exchange rate has a negative impact on soybean prices, while the sharp appreciation has a favorable impact on soybean prices. The fluctuation of soybean price is accompanied by all the influencing factors. In some years, there is a certain inverse relationship between the fluctuation of real exchange rate and soybean price, but this does not mean that the change of soybean price is affected by the fluctuation of real exchange rate. Because during those periods, there were other factors that affected prices.

It is worth noting that crude oil, energy and other commodities also have an impact on soybean prices. Changes in energy prices will have an impact on soybean planting, trade logistics costs, processing and even terminals. The price of crude oil has a deeper influence on soybean oil-biodiesel, which is processed from vegetable oil and used as fuel.

In addition, the changes in the positions of managed funds in the United States cannot be ignored. The largest position in the history of management funds is near the net excess of 200,000 lots, at least near the net clearance of 654.38+ 10,000 lots. Compared with the US soybean futures position, it is generally 700,000-654.38+0,000 lots. Due to the large proportion of managed fund positions relative to soybean futures contracts, when the managed fund positions change greatly, it will have a greater impact on soybean futures prices.

In order to maintain the stability of agricultural production and prevent the sharp fluctuation of agricultural product prices, countries all over the world will introduce some subsidies or support policies in due course. National agricultural policy has certain periodicity in adjusting agricultural structure, increasing farmers' income and stabilizing agricultural product prices. The main source of domestic soybean crushing is still imported soybean, which makes the domestic soybean meal price affected by the international imported soybean price. In this environment, if the domestic oil meal price is abnormal, the state will often balance the supply and demand pattern of oil meal in the domestic market by collecting, throwing and storing soybeans to protect the interests of soybean farmers and consumers. The change of policy has a great influence on soybean price, which directly leads to the sharp fluctuation of soybean products in the short term.

The impact of influenza epidemic on the price of agricultural products is mainly reflected in the demand for feed by downstream products. The raw materials of pig feed are mainly corn and soybean meal, with corn accounting for 50% and soybean meal accounting for 20%. In particular, soybean meal is rich in various amino acids, which is very beneficial for pigs to absorb nutrition, and 85% is used for pigs and poultry. Experiments show that the amino acids contained in soybean meal alone are enough to balance the pig's diet without adding extra animal protein. Only when the unit protein cost of other meals is much lower than that of soybean meal, people will consider using substitutes. If there is swine fever or bird flu, the downstream demand will drop, which will directly affect the price of soybean meal.

Soybean pricing and futures

(soybean futures contract)

From 65438 to 0936, Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) introduced soybean futures contracts, which greatly promoted the development of American soybean industry. Although its history is not as long as corn, wheat and other grain futures, it has become one of the most successful varieties in CBOT trading history. In recent decades, the United States has been the largest soybean producer and exporter in the world. The industrial structure makes American soybean futures price play a benchmark role in the world, and soybean pricing in all countries of the world should refer to CBOT soybean futures price. At the same time, soybean futures have been listed in many places around the world. For example, Central American Commodity Exchange, Budapest Commodity Exchange, Tokyo Grain Exchange and India Multi-commodity Exchange (MCX) all offer different soybean futures contracts.

Dalian Commodity Exchange launched soybean futures contract 1993. In March 2002, due to the promulgation and implementation of the National Regulations on Genetically Modified Soybeans, imported soybeans were temporarily unable to participate in futures delivery. For this reason, Dashang Company divided the soybean contract into 1 soybean futures contract with edible quality non-GMO soybeans as the subject matter and No.2 soybean futures contract with oil-pressed soybeans as the subject matter. That is to say, soybean futures contract No.2 contains genetically modified soybeans, while soybean futures 1 contract does not contain genetically modified soybeans. Although the name of CBOT's soybean futures target is also Soybean No.2, the content is different. No.65438 +0, No.2 and No.3 refer to the quality grade difference between the same varieties.

Soybean futures is one of the commodity futures with the earliest listing time, the largest cumulative trading volume and the most standardized trading in China. Later, Dashang introduced soybean meal futures and soybean oil futures, and the joint listing of oil and fat "three brothers" not only complied with the requirements of integrating with the global futures market, but also provided domestic bean production, processing and consumption enterprises with tools to avoid risks, which greatly met their hedging needs (see the table below).

Dalian Commodity Exchange Soybean Table 1 and 2

Flowers look the same year after year.

(Seasonal consumption of soybean meal)

Soybean meal is the largest and most widely used of cottonseed meal, peanut meal and rapeseed meal 12 animal and vegetable oil meal feed products. As a kind of high protein, soybean meal is the main raw material of livestock feed, and it is not easy to be replaced. In addition, soybean meal is also the raw material for making pastry food, health food, cosmetics and antibiotics.

When the price of soybean meal is too high, feed enterprises begin to reduce the proportion of soybean meal in feed formula and increase the amount of miscellaneous meal. Take pork batch as an example, the general dosage of protein soybean meal is 10%-30%. When the price of soybean meal is high, the substitution of miscellaneous meal will increase. However, if free gossypol and rapeseed meal are not treated properly, anti-nutritional factors such as glucosinolate, tannin, phytic acid and sinapine may reduce feed quality, so the replacement amount of miscellaneous meal is only 5%-65438+ in theory. This ensures that the annual demand for soybean meal will not drop sharply because of the sharp rise in prices.

In the past 20 years, China's soybean imports have been increasing. Up to now, about 80% of soybeans consumed in China are imported. Therefore, the production capacity of soybean crushing plants is mostly concentrated in coastal provinces, mainly in Guangxi, Guangdong, Jiangsu, Shandong, Hebei and Liaoning. Squeezed soybean meal will be transported from coastal areas to inland provinces to produce feed to meet the consumption needs of all parts of the country.

Because the United States and Brazil are the most important sources of soybean imports from China, and the two countries harvest soybeans every six months to supply the world market, China's soybean imports have obvious seasonal characteristics. About two months after soybeans are harvested in Brazil and the United States, China will import a lot of soybeans. For example, Brazil imports a lot of soybeans from May to August every year, and the United States imports a lot of soybeans the following year 1 1- 1. In addition to the supply from exporting countries, the month with low import volume is also affected by seasonal factors of demand in China.

The demand of aquaculture in China has obvious seasonal characteristics every year, and the time after the Spring Festival is the off-season of feed consumption every year, so the demand of soybean meal is the lowest every year, and soybean imports and factory crushing in China are relatively low. With the gradual recovery of demand, the crushing level of the factory continued to rise in the following months. The months before the Spring Festival every year are the peak season for feed consumption. The crushing plant will plan production according to the seasonal characteristics of annual demand, so the soybean crushing capacity of the plant will show obvious seasonal characteristics.

The most commonly used edible vegetable oil

(Consumption of soybean oil)

Soybean oil is taken from soybean seeds and, like soybean meal, is a pressed product of soybean.

Soybean oil plays an important role in the production and consumption of vegetable oil in the world. In recent years, the output and consumption of soybean oil in the world are on the rise. Soybean oil production ranks second in the world in vegetable oil production, accounting for about 28%. In the world vegetable oil trade, soybean oil trade also occupies a decisive position. In 20 18, the world soybean oil output was 57 million tons, second only to palm oil. The trade volume of soybean oil accounts for 15% of the total world vegetable oil trade volume, ranking second among all kinds of vegetable oils.

Soybean oil has a high status in China. In 20 18-20 19, the total supply of soybean oil in China accounted for 45% of the total supply of all vegetable oils. In China, soybean oil is the most consumed vegetable oil commodity every year. 95% of soybean oil supply is produced by domestic crushing, and the import supply only accounts for about 5%.

The production of soybean oil is squeezed from soybean, so the major soybean producing countries in the world are the main sources of soybean oil supply. China imported 2-2.5 million tons of soybean oil every year from 2000 to 20 10. In recent years, with the gradual increase of soybean imports, more and more soybean oil is produced by crushing in China, so it is not necessary to continue to import a large amount of soybean oil to meet consumption, so the import of soybean oil in recent years is 600,000-800,000 tons.

International energy prices have a great influence on vegetable oil prices. Biodiesel refers to fatty acid methyl ester or ethyl ester formed by transesterification of vegetable oil with methanol or ethanol, which can be used as fuel. In the past 20 years, the consumption of biodiesel to soybean oil has grown from scratch. At present, industrial consumption accounts for nearly 20% of the total soybean oil production, and the proportion of palm oil refining biodiesel is even as high as 27%. Once the price of crude oil rises, the output of biodiesel can easily increase rapidly. Therefore, soybean oil has the property of bioenergy speculation.

Soybean meal and soybean oil futures contracts on Dalian Commodity Exchange

Dalian Commodity Exchange launched soybean meal futures contract in 2000 and soybean oil futures contract in 2006 (see table below). At this point, the futures contracts of raw materials and products in the soybean crushing link have been improved, meeting the hedging needs of processing and consumption enterprises. On March 3 1, 2065438, Dalian Commodity Exchange launched soybean meal futures option contract. The introduction of soybean meal futures option not only conforms to the requirements of the global futures market, but also provides a tool for domestic bean production, processing and consumption enterprises to avoid risks.

Soybean meal futures and soybean oil futures contracts of Dalian Commodity Exchange