The ups and downs of China's stock market over the past 20 years!

Since 1990, when China's stock market opened for business, it has gone through a 20-year process. Looking back at the Chinese stock market 20 years of bulls and bears alternately, they are basically to ups and downs of the "symmetrical beauty" and show. Here, the author will be divided into four major phases of the 20 years: 1,000-point axis stage, 1,000-point bottom stage, 1,500-point bottom stage, the new axis confirmation stage. \x0d\ (a) China's stock market, the first stage: 1000 points of value axis stage (took 6 years) \x0d\ 1990 - 1996 6 years, China's stock market has always been 1000 points for the value of the axis, 1500 points has become an insurmountable in the minds of the shareholders of a "can " ("box top"). 6 years, the Chinese stock market has experienced frequent three rounds of ups and downs. \x0d\(1) The first round of ups and downs: 100 points - 1,429 points - 400 points (down more than 50%) \x0d\with December 19, 1990 as the base period, China's stock market started from 100 points. on May 26, 1992, the Shanghai Stock Exchange (SSE) index went on a rampage. On May 26, 1992, the SSE soared to 1,429 points, which was the "peak" of the first major bull market in China. In a year and a half, the index surged by more than 1,300 points. Then the stock market was a rapid and panicked fall, five months after the plunge, November 16, 1992, the index fell back to 400 points below, almost back to its original form. \x0d\(2) Second round of ups and downs: 400 points - 1,536 points - 333 points (more than 50% drop) \x0d\ The SSE index set sail from the 400-point trough at the end of 1992 and began its second round of "big ups and downs". This upsurge came more violently, from 400 points near the extremely fast scurry to February 15, 1993 1536.82 points to close (the SSE index for the first time to stand above 1500 points), only 3 months of time, the SSE index rose 1100 points. The index stabilized above 1,500 points for 4 days, then turned around and continued to fall. This decline basically did not meet any resistance, but the decline time is longer than the previous round, continued to fall as long as 17 months. July 29, 1994, the SSE index fell to the lowest point of this round of market 333.92 points to close. \x0d\(3) The third round of ups and downs: 333 points - 1,053 points - 512 points (down more than 50%) \x0d\ Due to the three major policies to rescue the market, August 1, 1994, a new round of the market started again, this round of the big bulls The market came more violent and short, just a month or so, the SSE index surged to the highest point of 1053 points on September 13, 1994, up 215%. An even longer bear market ensued. Until January 19, 1996, the SSE fell to a low of 512.80 points. This round of decline took a total of 16 months. \x0d\(ii) China's stock market Phase 2: 1000-point bottom confirmation phase (took 9 years)\x0d\until February 21, 1997, when China's stock market once again stood at 1,000 points, which was a major turning point and the beginning of a new phase, and from then on, China's stock market's closing index has been standing firmly above 1,000 points. Despite the fact that on June 6, 2005, the Shanghai Composite Index broke through the 1,000-point mark during the trading session, the stock index still stubbornly closed above 1,000 points on the same day. \x0d\ From January 1996 to June 2005, China's stock market experienced its fourth round of ups and downs, the main significance of which is that this round of ups and downs broke through the 1,500-point historical "box top" and turned the 1,000-point "value axis The main significance is that this round of ups and downs has broken through the historical "box top" of 1,500 points and turned the "value axis" of 1,000 points into a new market "box bottom". \x0d\(4) The fourth round of ups and downs: 512 points - 2245 points - 998 points (down more than 50%) \x0d\ In early 1996, this wave of the bull market was launched silently in the regular annual report disclosure. The SSE was launched from above 500 points on January 19, 1996. on June 14, 2001, the SSE surged to an all-time high of 2,245 points. the cumulative gain of the 5-year bull market was more than 300%! Since then, it was officially announced that the real end of this round of the great bull market in China, which lasted for 5 years. \x0d\ in the fourth round of the bull market in the upward channel, it showed "a wave of three twists and turns" of the market, the stock market stage of the process of the bubble gathered, which is very conducive to the extension of the bull market: 512 points (January 1996) - 1510 points (May 1997) - 512 points (January 1997) - 1510 points (May 1997) - 1510 points (May 1997) - 1510 points (May 1997) - 1510 points (May 1997) - 1510 points (May 1997) -1510 points (May 1997) - 1047 points (May 1999) - 1756 points (June 1999) - 1361 points (Jan 2000) -1361 points (January 2000) -2245 points (June 2001) \x0d\ Please note: Since each "pullback" in the upward channel of the bull market, the decline is not more than 1/2 of the previous high, therefore, I regard it as a "pullback", rather than an independent round of the "bear market". "Bear market" market. The fourth round of bulls and bears and the first three rounds of bulls and bears is the main difference: the fourth round of the market is a round of "slow bull" market, it is "a wave of three folds" to rise, but also symmetrically manifested as "a wave of three folds "down: 2245 points - 1500 points - 1200 points - 1000 points. It is the bull market "one wave of three twists and turns" zigzagging up, only later "one wave of three twists and turns" zigzagging down. It is also so that this round of bull and bear market can last, before and after the duration of 9 years. This is the only time in 20 years that the Chinese stock market has experienced a "slow bull, slow bear" pattern. \x0d\(c) China's stock market, the third stage: 1500 point bottom confirmation stage (took 3 years) \x0d\2005, the second half of China's stock market from the thousands of points above the re-consolidation, regained confidence, and once again opened China's stock market in the 20 years of the most violent up and down in the fifth round of the prelude to the ups and downs of the ups and downs of the prelude. \x0d\(5) The fifth round of ups and downs: 998 points - 6124 points - 1664 points (down more than 50%) \x0d\on June 6, 2005, the Shanghai Stock Exchange index fell below 1,000 points, as low as 998.23 points. Compared with the 2245 points on June 14, 2001, a total drop of more than 50%, therefore marking the official establishment of the bottom of this round of bear market. \x0d\\ in the second half of 2005, the Shanghai Composite Index from 1000 points near the start of a new round of super bull market, May 9, 2006, the Shanghai index finally once again stood on 1500 points. November 20, 2006, the Shanghai index stood on 2000 points. \x0d\ on December 14, 2006, the SSE index hit its highest record for the first time, closing at 2249.11 points. 8 trading days later, on December 27, 2006, the SSE index surged to the 2500-point mark for the first time. on February 26, 2007, the broader market for the first time stood at the 3000-point mark. on May 9, 2007, the broader market for the first time stood at the 4000-point mark. on August 23, 2007, the broader market for the first time stood at the 4000-point mark. on August 23, 2007, the broader market for the first time stood at the 4000-point mark. On August 23, 2007, the broad market stood on the 5,000-point mark for the first time. \x0d\ on October 15, 2007, the market stood at 6000 points for the first time. The next day it hit an all-time high of 6124 points. The market stood above 6000 points for only three days that turned down, which marked the official end of the current round of the bull market. \x0d\ In this round of bull market, the Shanghai Composite Index soared from 2245 points on December 14, 2006 to October 16, 2007, which took only 10 months; however, in the next big bear market, the Shanghai Composite Index fell from 6124 points back to 2245 points, which happened to also take only 10 months of work. This is the real meaning of China's stock market ups and downs "symmetrical beauty"! \x0d\but things are far from over. on October 28, 2008, China's stock market continued to plummet to 1,664 points, which is the absolute bottom of the current bear market! Some people say, from 6100 points down over a, down to today's 1600 points, should be almost; but some people say, at least to fall below 1500 points, and even more, some people predict that this round of the bear market will have to fall to 1200 points or retest the bottom of the 1000 points. Fortunately, this is all just a few people's conjecture or pessimism. \x0d\1664 points, really stopped! The great significance of this major signal is: it marks the Chinese stock market finally confirmed 1500 points of the history of the new "bottom of the box"; 1500 points finally built into the Great Wall of China's stock market! \x0d\\(4) China's stock market fourth stage: where is the new value axis? 2000 points or 3000 points? \x0d\1500 points is the future of the Chinese stock market market "box bottom", unbreakable! So, in the next three to five years, China's stock market value axis where exactly? How long do you need to wait to cross the historical peak of 6124 points again? It will repeat the Japanese stock market 20 years can not cross the 40,000-point historical peak of the "fault"? Or it will go back to the NASDAQ ten years can not exceed 5500 points of the historical peak of the old road? China's stock market 20 years of daily K chart may give us some kind of revelation, some kind of inspiration, or some kind of answer. Lastly, I would like to make a prediction that China's stock market will oscillate between 2,000 and 4,000 points in 2010. In the next three years, there may not be a real bull market in the Chinese stock market! Mainly based on the following three major background factors:\x0d\ First, in 2010, China's stock market will really step into the "full circulation" era, with the new stock issuance system "market-oriented" reform in depth, especially the launch of stock index futures, the ups and downs of the "symmetrical beauty" of the stock market. "Symmetrical beauty" will gradually fade out. What's more, it takes three years to build up the strength, regain the old mountain and build up the energy again, which is a necessary process and cannot be rushed! \x0d\ Secondly, the energy saving and emission reduction targets will stifle the expansion of the "two high and one capital" (high energy consumption, high pollution, resource) industry, "two high and one capital" industry, the central enterprises and state-owned enterprises profit growth will be greatly reduced. The traditional GDP command and high GDP growth will no longer work, and new profit growth points will be hard to find in the economic transformation and industrial upgrading! The quality of economic growth targets will fully replace the pure economic growth rate indicators Third, as China's economic barometer, the banking industry will enter a period of consolidation next year. On the one hand, the bank itself to "charge", the need for the second time to borrow the stock market, the issuance of additional capitalization; on the other hand, the post-crisis era, in the situation of the bank credit days of expansion is limited, take the opportunity to expand the capital markets, accelerate the expansion of the stock market, which is the GEM board and small and medium-sized boards rapid expansion of the heavenly gift of opportunity! This can greatly alleviate the huge pressure on bank credit, the traditional and single financing channel for Chinese enterprises

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