Guangdong is as rich as an enemy. Why is finance facing new troubles?

As the "vanguard" of China's economic growth, the GDP of Guangdong 202 1 region has been ranked first in China for 33 consecutive years, surpassing South Korea and Russia, and its volume is equivalent to the tenth largest economy in the world. The corresponding general public budget revenue has exceeded 1.4 trillion yuan, which is far ahead of the national 3 1 provinces and cities. Compared with other provinces, Guangdong's finance has distinct characteristics, such as: great net contribution to the central finance, serious regional financial differentiation within the province, relatively centralized provincial finance, high quality fiscal revenue, relatively concentrated tax sources of leading industries, low financial dependence on land, low debt risk, coordinated development between Guangdong and Shenzhen, but different financial systems, etc.

Guangdong's economic and financial development cannot be separated from the unprecedented changes in the world and China's accelerated construction of a new development pattern. Guangdong faces a series of major challenges, which have a great impact on its financial situation. First, anti-globalization and global trade frictions have led to a downturn in global economic and trade activities, which will inevitably affect Guangdong's fiscal revenue with obvious characteristics of export-oriented economy. Second, China's economy has turned from high-speed to high-quality development, from real estate prosperity to the era of technological and manufacturing power. Although Guangdong's overall dependence on land transfer income is not high, the absolute amount of income contributed by land transfer income and the high dependence of some cities such as Guangzhou mean that the downward trend of real estate will impact the disposable financial resources of Guangdong, especially some cities, and increase the pressure of provincial government regulation. Third, the urban agglomeration strategy of metropolitan area and the regional development strategy of Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area have been gradually promoted, and the population continues to flow into Guangdong, resulting in the demand for public services. The central government requires the improvement of the basic public service provision system in the permanent residence. The pressure of Guangdong's financial expenditure is obvious, and the rising demand for people's livelihood and social security puts greater pressure on some cities. The financial operation of districts and counties requires a large number of transfer payments from superiors. Fourth, promoting scientific and technological innovation and quality development, and ensuring food and energy security all need the strong support of financial expenditure. Fifth, it is even more arduous for Guangdong to achieve balanced regional development, promote rural revitalization and achieve common prosperity with other eastern provinces. Therefore, Guangdong, as an excellent "vanguard", will face a series of contradictions and problems in fiscal revenue and expenditure in the future, although it is rich in financial resources.

In the short term, "increasing revenue and reducing expenditure" and "pumping fertilizer to supplement thinness" are the methods to solve the contradiction between income and expenditure and regional imbalance under static thinking. However, regional coordinated development is not a simple absolute average between cities, nor is it to eliminate regional differences, but to narrow the per capita development gap between regions, and regional balance cannot be pursued at the expense of overall economic growth. In the medium and long term, promoting economic transformation and upgrading and adjusting the financial system below the provincial level are the fundamental solutions. On the one hand, further strengthen the overall planning and efficiency of Guangdong's finance, promote the reform of financial system and mechanism, and effectively reduce the financial risks of some cities and counties in eastern and western Guangdong. On the other hand, regional coordinated development needs to change "polarization effect" into "diffusion effect" based on comparative advantage. Guangdong needs to make precise policies according to local conditions based on natural endowments, give full play to the guiding role of finance in the transformation of industrial structure, and enhance the endogenous development momentum of underdeveloped areas.

I. General situation of financial system and tax source structure in Guangdong Province

The economy determines the tax base and profoundly affects the fiscal revenue. The local financial situation, especially the finance of cities, districts and counties, is not only closely related to the macro-economic aggregate and the meso-industrial structure, but also influenced by micro-enterprises and the financial system below the provincial level. According to the latest China Tax Yearbook and Guangdong Tax Yearbook, this paper analyzes the financial system and tax source structure of Guangdong Province, and draws four basic conclusions.

First, from the perspective of its net contribution to the national finance, Guangdong Province ranks first in the country in its net contribution to the central finance. The net contribution of local governments to the central finance is measured by the central tax revenue created by local governments and the central refundable revenue accepted by local governments. In 20 19, Guangdong's net contribution to the central finance led the whole country, reaching 830.7 billion yuan, which was higher than that of Shanghai (820.2 billion yuan), Beijing (73 10 billion yuan), Jiangsu (409 10 billion yuan), Zhejiang (327.4 billion yuan) and Shandong.

Second, from the financial system of Guangdong Province, due to the unbalanced economic development in Guangdong Province, provincial finance needs to master certain financial resources for comprehensive balance, so the proportion of provincial income is higher than that of other provinces, and the retained income of cities and counties is relatively low, which belongs to a relatively centralized local financial system. Under the tax-sharing system, Guangdong cities (except Shenzhen) should share the tax with the central government and Guangdong Province. For example, the distribution ratio of value-added tax in the central, provincial and municipal governments is 50%, 25% and 25% respectively, and the distribution ratio of enterprise income tax and personal income tax in the central, provincial and municipal governments is 60%, 20% and 20% respectively. Shenzhen implements the financial management system of cities under separate state planning, and enjoys the authority of provincial financial tax management, which is mainly linked to the central government, sharing taxes with the central government, and accepting the transfer payment and tax refund from the central government. Zhejiang, which belongs to the eastern region, has a relatively balanced economic development and its tax distribution is tilted towards cities and counties. The distribution ratio of enterprise income tax and individual income tax among the central, provincial and municipal governments is 60%, 0% and 40% (that is, the province does not participate in sharing). Under the background of strengthening provincial financial co-ordination, in 20 19, the proportion of general public budget revenue in Guangdong province was 26.0%, 40.5% and 33.5% respectively, and the proportion of provincial revenue was significantly higher than that in Jiangsu, Zhejiang and Fujian provinces. It is worth noting that after the second distribution, the provincial and municipal governments will sink their financial resources to the county-level governments in the form of transfer payments.

From the perspective of expenditure, the county government bears the main expenditure responsibility. In 20 19, the proportion of general public budget expenditure in Guangdong province was 8.2%, 36.5% and 55.3% respectively. From the perspective of expenditure structure, except for education expenditure, which accounts for a relatively high proportion among governments at all levels, public security expenditure in Guangdong Province accounts for the highest proportion, reaching 20.9%; At the city level, urban and rural communities, general public services and other infrastructure and operating expenditures are the main ones, and county-level governments' urban and rural community expenditures and social security expenditures account for a relatively high proportion.

Third, from the perspective of industrial structure, Guangdong's tax revenue mainly comes from the secondary and tertiary industries, and the contribution of manufacturing, real estate, wholesale and retail and financial services accounts for about 80%. In 20 19, the tax revenue generated by the three industries in Guangdong province accounted for 0. 1%, 37.3% and 62.6% respectively, and the tertiary industry became the main source of tax revenue. Relatively speaking, the tax source structure of Shenzhen is quite different from that of other regions in Guangdong, and the tax revenue of the tertiary industry accounts for 8 1.8%, which is 29.4 percentage points higher than that of the whole province (excluding Shenzhen) on average. Among them, the financial industry contributed the most to Shenzhen's tax revenue, reaching 26.5%, which was 20.2 percentage points higher than the average level of the whole province (excluding Shenzhen), which was related to the gathering of the headquarters of financial institutions in Shenzhen.

Specifically, from the perspective of tax revenue generated by the industrial sector, the distribution of tax sources in Guangdong shows the characteristics of "small gathering" as a whole, which is highly related to the industrial distribution in the city. The manufacturing industries of the nine cities in the Pearl River Delta have their own characteristics and have made great contributions to tax revenue. For example, Guangzhou's automobile and chemical manufacturing industries, Zhuhai, Foshan and Zhongshan's electrical machinery and equipment manufacturing industries, Shenzhen and Dongguan's computer communication and other electronic equipment manufacturing industries. Western Guangdong, represented by Maoming and Zhanjiang, is rich in mineral resources, and fuel processing industries such as oil and coal, ferrous metal smelting and rolling processing industries contribute greatly to tax revenue. Wholesale and retail in eastern Guangdong are relatively developed. Shantou, Jieyang and Shanwei mainly export traditional light industry, and the textile and garment industry accounts for a relatively high proportion. The economic growth of northern Guangdong relies more on traditional industries such as tobacco and real estate, and the tax source structure is relatively single. Take Meizhou as an example. In 20 19, the tobacco products industry, real estate industry and construction industry paid a total tax of105.7 billion yuan, accounting for 52% of the city's tax revenue.

Fourth, from the micro-subject, Guangdong's private economy is active and is an important source of tax revenue. In 20 19, the tax revenue generated by Guangdong private economy exceeded 1.36 trillion yuan, accounting for 57.5% of Guangdong's tax revenue. This is mainly due to the strong economic vitality of Guangdong, the leading number of high-quality private enterprises, and the largest business scale in the country. In 20 19, the added value of Guangdong private economy (excluding foreign-controlled enterprises) reached 5.89 trillion yuan, accounting for 54.6% of the regional GDP. In 20 18, 65% of invention patents and more than 75% of innovation achievements in Guangdong came from private enterprises, and 80% of national high-tech enterprises were private enterprises.

Second, Guangdong 202 1 financial situation: the total amount is leading the country and the regional differentiation is serious.

First, the total fiscal revenue of Guangdong Province is relatively large, but the fiscal and taxation performance of 2 1 prefecture-level and above cities in the province is quite different and seriously divided. In 20021year, the budget revenue of general public in Guangdong province exceeded 1.4 trillion yuan, accounting for 12.7% of the budget revenue of local general public * *, ranking first in the country for 3 consecutive years. The budget revenue of the first 1 Shenzhen general public company in the province exceeded 400 billion yuan, accounting for 30.2% of the province. The last Chaozhou, just over 5 billion, Shenzhen's fiscal revenue is 82.2 times that of Chaozhou. From the perspective of per capita budget revenue, the number one Shenzhen (2 1875 yuan/person) is 16.5 times that of the last Jieyang (1326 yuan/person). From the perspective of districts and counties, there are 13 districts and counties with general public budget revenue exceeding10 billion, all of which are concentrated in Guangzhou, Shenzhen and Foshan, 6 in Shenzhen, 4 in Guangzhou and 3 in Foshan. Among them, Nanshan District of Shenzhen ranks first with the scale of 36 1 100 million yuan, which is 1.72 times that of Liannan Yao Autonomous County of Qingyuan City.

Judging from the quality of fiscal revenue, Guangdong's overall fiscal revenue quality needs to be improved. The proportion of fiscal revenue in the Pearl River Delta region is relatively high, and the northern part of Guangdong is highly dependent on non-tax revenue. In 20021year, Guangdong's tax revenue accounted for 76.5% of the general budget revenue, which was 8.8 percentage points lower than the national average. The Pearl River Delta region has the best fiscal revenue quality, among which Dongguan tax revenue accounts for 82.2% 202 1. The tax revenues of eastern Guangdong, western Guangdong and northern Guangdong account for 64.7%, 60.6% and 60.3% of the general budget revenue respectively, and Yunfu (50%) located in northern Guangdong has the lowest financial quality.

Second, the regional differentiation of financial self-sufficiency rate is obvious, and non-Pearl River Delta cities have poor financial self-sufficiency rate and high dependence on transfer payments. Except Zhaoqing, the financial self-sufficiency rate of cities in the Pearl River Delta is above 50%. Shenzhen (93.2%), Dongguan (88%) and Foshan (77.6%) rank among the top three in the province. Zhaoqing has the lowest level of financial self-sufficiency, but it also has 36.9%. The financial self-sufficiency rate of other non-Pearl River Delta cities is below 36%, and they are highly dependent on transfer payments. Among them, Shanwei (18.8%), Meizhou (2 1.4%), Jieyang (2 1.5%), Heyuan (24.4%) and Chaozhou (24.7%) have low financial self-sufficiency rates. Among them, the financial self-sufficiency rate of Jiexi County in Jieyang City is as low as 9. 1%.

Third, the core cities in the Pearl River Delta have a high urbanization rate, high housing prices and land prices, and a large scale of government funds, but overall, cities in Guangdong are not highly dependent on land finance. In terms of scale, the income of government funds in Guangzhou, Shenzhen, Foshan, Dongguan and Huizhou ranks among the top five in the province, with 2388.6, 1373.7, 1 163.5, 7022 and 531700,000 yuan respectively. The income of government funds in other cities is less, of which Yunfu has the lowest income scale, only 2.48 billion yuan, and the first place in Guangzhou is 96 times that of Yunfu. Based on government fund income/(government fund income+general public budget income), the dependence of Guangdong cities on land finance is estimated approximately. Shantou, Foshan and Guangzhou have the highest dependence on land finance, reaching 60.6%, 59. 1% and 56.5% respectively, while Shenzhen has the lowest dependence, only 24.4%.

Fourth, in 20021year, the balance of local government debt in Guangdong province exceeded 2 trillion yuan, ranking first in the country. However, Guangdong's economy is large, and its debt ratio is only 16.5%, which is far below the international warning line of 60%, ranking second from the bottom among the 3/kloc-0 provinces in China, and the overall debt repayment pressure is not great. The debt scale in the Pearl River Delta region is generally high. The debts of Guangzhou, Foshan, Shenzhen and Dongguan are all above 100 billion yuan, of which Guangzhou ranks first with 372.77 billion yuan, accounting for nearly one-fifth of the total debt of the province. The debt balance of western Guangdong and northern Guangdong is generally between 40 billion and 70 billion yuan, of which Zhanjiang's debt is relatively large, reaching 69.95 billion yuan. Except Shantou (62.84 billion yuan), the debt scale in eastern Guangdong is generally small, with Shanwei, Jieyang and Chaozhou all below 40 billion yuan. At the same time, Guangdong province completed the goal of "clearing hidden debts" as scheduled, becoming the first province without hidden debts in China.

Fifth, considering the level of economic development in various places, although the scale of urban debt in the Pearl River Delta is large, the debt ratio is generally low; The debt ratio in northern Guangdong is generally high and the debt pressure is high. Shenzhen (4.6%), Dongguan (10. 1%), Guangzhou (13.2%), Zhongshan (14.7%) and other cities in the Pearl River Delta have gradually got rid of the investment drive, and their economic growth is less dependent on debt, and the debt repayment pressure is lighter. Comparatively speaking, the debt ratios of the five cities in northern Guangdong are all above 30%, among which Meizhou is the highest, reaching 47.4%, and Meizhou, the county with the highest debt ratio in the province, accounts for 6. Some cities and counties with backward economic development, such as eastern and western Guangdong, have greater debt risks.

Third, promote balanced regional development in Guangdong Province.

First, establish the basic understanding that regional coordinated development is a relatively balanced development strategy. Regional coordinated development is not a simple absolute average, it is not to eliminate the differences between regions, but to narrow the per capita development gap between regions. Instead of pursuing regional balance at the expense of overall economic growth, we should enhance the rationality of primary distribution, strengthen the secondary distribution of the government, encourage the development of tertiary distribution, and promote prosperity with * * *.

The second is to start with the reform of the financial system and promote the reform of the division of expenditure responsibilities among provinces, cities and counties. At present, the income from land transfer is declining, and the rigid expenditure in the field of people's livelihood is not decreasing, which will increase the financial pressure of some cities and counties in Guangdong Province. Further enhance the overall planning and efficiency of Guangdong's finance, promote the reform of financial system and mechanism, and effectively reduce the financial risks of some cities and counties in eastern, western and northern Guangdong.

First, we will accelerate the reform of the division of expenditure responsibilities among provinces, cities and counties in the field of basic public services, with the overall proportion tilted towards underdeveloped areas such as the northern ecological development zone, where basic public services such as basic education, public health and social security will be realized first, and the central and provincial funds will be borne by the provincial finance as a whole, and will gradually expand to the coastal economic belt.

Second, the higher-level finance will increase the financial transfer payment subsidies and increase the basic financial resources at the county level, which will be used by the county level in combination with local conditions to better invest in areas such as "ensuring wages, ensuring operations and ensuring people's livelihood".

Third, give full play to the guiding role of finance in social capital, increase financial support for finance in eastern and western Guangdong, and promote the balance of financial resources in the whole province.

Third, based on comparative advantages, we will promote economic transformation and upgrading in an orderly manner, change "polarization effect" into "diffusion effect", make precise policies according to local conditions, optimize the business environment in eastern and western Guangdong, and enhance the endogenous development momentum in underdeveloped areas.

First, for the relatively developed Pearl River Delta region, we should give full play to Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area's important role as a window connecting the mainland, Hong Kong and Macao and an important engine of Guangdong's economic development, constantly promote industrial upgrading and sustainable development, and help build a new pattern of development.

Second, for the "coastal economic belt" with high population density in the east, west and north of Guangdong, we should make full use of the favorable conditions of coastal bays, speed up the construction of two new growth poles, Shantou and Zhanjiang, give play to the role of radiation, and jointly lead the development of surrounding areas.

Third, for the mountainous areas in northern Guangdong with low population density, we should focus on precision poverty alleviation and rural revitalization, taking into account the development of characteristic industries.

Note: This article only represents the author's personal views, and it is the author's "Walking the Financial Map of China" series.