In-depth analysis of the 2018 National Volume II college entrance examination essay: you may not understand it even after reading it several times

# College Entrance Examination # IntroductionThe essay topic of National Volume II should be the most controversial. Some people say it is a clear stream of test papers, and it is cool to see. Now we're going to follow along with the analysis of this a bit of a "pit" essay topic.

National Volume II

(Applicable areas: Inner Mongolia, Heilongjiang, Liaoning, Jilin, Chongqing, Shaanxi, Gansu, Ningxia, Qinghai, Xinjiang, Hainan)

Read the material, according to the requirements of writing. (60 points)

During World War II, in order to strengthen the protection of warplanes, the British and American militaries investigated the distribution of bullet wounds on surviving airplanes after combat, and decided to strengthen them wherever there were more bullet wounds. However, Ward, a statistician, argued that more attention should be paid to areas with fewer bullet wounds, as fighters that were heavily damaged in these areas would have little chance of returning to the air, and this part of the data was ignored. As it turned out, Ward was right.

Requirements: synthesize the content of the material and meaning, choose a good angle, determine the intention, clear style, write your own title; do not set work, not plagiarized; not less than 800 words.

Analysis of the essay

Let people "cool" college entrance examination essay

In fact, said the "survivor bias"

Jue Shaanxi high sense of the examination essay is the most people in all the college entrance examination essay cool! ...... June 7, 11:30 a.m., the end of the language subjects of the college entrance examination, and came to the time of all the people writing essays, but this year, Shaanxi college entrance examination essay, you may read a few times may not be able to understand.

Seems simple, in fact, the "pit" is very deep

Combined with the status quo in Xi'an to write

Yesterday, after the end of the language subjects, a candidate to the China Business News reporter said: "See the material to think of the first title is 'the truth is often in the hands of a few people'. In the hands of a few people', the final essay topic is it. After writing are very blind."

The essay topic also triggered a heated debate among netizens, "Is there anyone who is as hazy as I am?" The netizen "Kaka Xi" said, "even the title can not understand." Netizen "Ma Jianbin" said: "The feeling is several sets of examination questions in the coolest, let the heart cool."

Netizen "fat very sharp" said: "This topic seems simple, in fact, the pit is very deep ah, I estimate that many candidates will fall into the 'sheep mending', 'prevention is better than cure', 'truth is better than cure', 'truth is better than cure', 'truth is better than cure'. I think many candidates will fall into the pit of arguments such as 'mending the fold', 'prevention is better than cure', 'truth is often in the hands of a few', etc., which seem to be close, but in fact are fundamentally different from the arguments reflected in the material. Personally, I think the gist of this topic is: to see the essence through the phenomenon. Most people analyze the problem, focusing only on the phenomenon seen by the eyes, often do not take into account the essence behind the phenomenon, and those who do not see, think, hidden behind the phenomenon, is the most damaging problem. Ward saw the surviving airplanes, but thought about the ones that didn't fly back, and that's the key."

There are also people who say that you can write in conjunction with the current situation in Xi'an - Xi'an is a civilization and a deeper historical imprint of the city, in Xi'an's war for talent, there are benefits and disadvantages, the gathering of talent on behalf of the development of Xi'an, but the lack of logistics is difficult to make the talent to stay. Since we need talent, we should find a way to solve the logistical problems. This all stems from the ancient "soldiers and horses are not moving food and grass first" reasoning, no good living environment and transportation environment, so who will come? Although it is proposed to repair the warplane need to pay attention to the often beaten place, this is defense, only defense is not defending can not win the war, so there are also proposed to pay attention to the place that has not been injured, because the comprehensive protection of their own in order not to lose, this topic reflects a sentence - "sustainable development in order to win the ultimate victory".

Emphasis on logical discursive ability

Scientific rational character

Huashang essay lecture hall invited lecturer, Shaanxi Province Development Center researcher, the Ministry of Education "national training program" teacher training expert lecturer Guo Kai told the Huashang Daily reporter, from the review of the intention of the question, read the material, tightly key words is not difficult to Conclusion: ① "to be in agreement", respect for science dare to question; ② "uphold their own views", follow the logic of rational judgment; ③ "the results are correct", to avoid the pitfalls of empiricism. ④ "data neglect", through the appearance of insight into the essence.

From the spirit of connotation, Shaanxi volume (National II) to focus on the development of students' core qualities as a starting point, the examination of "cultural foundation" in the "spirit of science", the spirit of which mainly includes "rational thinking", "critical thinking", "critical thinking", "scientific research", "scientific research", "scientific research", "scientific research", "scientific research", "scientific research", "scientific research" and "scientific research". "

The spirit of science is mainly composed of rational thinking, critical questioning, and the courage to explore.

Post-test reflection: daily language composition teaching exists such as heavy form not content, heavy technique not writing, heavy explanation not reading, heavy set not thinking, heavy emotion not discernment, heavy random proposition not systematic training and other shortcomings, should cause us to pay enough attention to the future candidates is also a very important reminder: the development of thinking ability to enhance the quality of thinking is the basic core literacy The main point is that it is not a good idea to have a good time.

"Survivor's bias" is not a superlative

We can talk about one-sidedness and comprehensiveness

Mr. Zhang Jiancheng, deputy director of the teaching and research office of the Second Middle School of the Far East in Xi'an and a provincial teaching master, believes that the phenomenon in the material can be summarized as "survivor's bias", which is a refutation of the "survivor's bias".

The refuted logical fallacy is to see only the result of some filtering, without realizing the process of filtering, and therefore ignoring the key information that was filtered out.

It can be talked about from the following points:

1. a blindfold to see Mount Taishan - talk about one-sidedness and comprehensiveness. Analyze the material will find: after the bomb can fly back to the aircraft, indicating that the damage is not vital parts, the fuel tank engine damaged has been flying back, the beginning of the screening process is wrong, the results are bound to be wrong. Observed from the phenomenon of social life, such as the personal level of the Peking University talent to sell meat, education scores are king, science and technology self-indulgence ...... may be the result of one-sided screening. The article can be dialectical thinking from the positive and negative sides, so as to avoid survivor bias, rather than after the wrong screening of one-sided perception.

2. Strongly insist on the truth - talk about the spirit of scientific skepticism. In today's information explosion in the era of big data, analyzing information is more important than the possession of information, how to analyze and filter useful information is one of the necessary personal ability, which requires critical thinking and questioning spirit. For example, some netizens tend to be emotionally motivated before knowing the truth, and morally abduct others, will not calmly think, carefully analyze, or someone "pretends to understand", rubbing hot spots "pouring their own block", resulting in a lot of chaos on the Internet.

The material reflects the statistical theory of "survivor bias", can not be said to be beyond the cognitive range of students, it is precisely the integration of disciplines, the embodiment of comprehensive literacy. If students have a lot of reading should be exposed to these words, there are many more: the broken window effect, the Matthew effect, the black swan, gray rhino events and so on. Even if they are not covered in language classes, they will be covered in political science and math classes.

Don't "just read the book"

Comprehensive development of dialectical thinking

Shaanxi Normal University Affiliated High School high school language teacher Tian Jialin that this year's essay question did not set too many "traps" to examine the topic, focusing on the level of thinking and writing. The focus is on examining the level of thinking and writing ability of students. Candidates are required to abandon the "one heart only read the book" of the "small me", do have a comprehensive development of dialectical thinking "atmosphere" of the people.

Tian A Lin that candidates can at least from five aspects to consider the composition of the intention:

First, the importance of systematic thinking, a comprehensive view of the problem. Candidates can use the fable of the blind man feeling the elephant to think about how to avoid "a leaf blind, not see Mt." In fact, both in learning and life, the use of systems thinking to deal with the problem is very important.

Second, the failure of the sample should not be ignored. In real life, people are more likely to focus on the successful, but in fact, the failure of the sample is more worthy of observation and reflection, as mentioned in this material, the part of the bullet less once the bullet may not be able to return to the ship, it is to guide people from the failure to learn the elements of success.

Third, we can not be confused by the appearance. In the material, the military only focus on the bullet marks more places are in need of reinforcement, ignoring the bullet marks less places more need to be reinforced, which reminds us, headache headache and foot pain thinking should not be, to be more rational, in-depth understanding of things.

Fourth, the * people are confused, the onlookers clear. In this material, the military in the middle of the war, by the desire to survive, the desire to win the eyes, the bystander can more clearly see where the lifeblood is, where the core, so candidates can also be from this level of intention.

Fifth, do not be superstitious about data and the so-called professionals. The military in the material is experienced, and its survey has objective data, but the statistician was not led by the nose, but instead focused on the neglected, unadopted data, thus arriving at a more accurate judgment, so do not be superstitious authority, do not easily give up their own thinking and judgment is also a direction of the intention.

To write a profound intention

Thinking composition is difficult

Huaqing Middle School is a senior teacher, Shaanxi Province, special teachers Zhang Dechang that this year's college entrance examination essay questions based on the ability to cultivate students to understand and participate in society, focusing on the examination of students' discursive power to examine the ability of the students to deal with and analyze the problem.

Mr. Zhang believes that the composition intention is mainly reflected in the following three aspects:

First of all, look at the problem to be comprehensive, only a comprehensive understanding of the problem in order to make scientific conclusions. In particular, we should pay attention to the places that have been overlooked, like the material, most people only see the parts of the plane was seriously injured, but did not pay attention to the parts of the plane was slightly injured, but Ward analyzed the consequences of these minor injuries once seriously injured, the candidates can be from the angle of real life should be given to the ordinary groups of people to pay more attention to the angle of the derivation, although they are not very conspicuous from time to time, once the problem will be involved in a wide range of issues, for example. The city can be derived from the city without migrant workers breakfast sellers or cleaners or construction workers, whether it can still function properly.

Secondly, we must be brave enough to insist on our own point of view. As long as the conclusions reached after scientific analysis, must adhere to, do not be authority ****.

Third, the ability to prevent setbacks. The material in the plane was able to fly back because some parts were not injured, if these parts once injured, the plane can no longer fly back. The candidates can be derived from the education of anti-frustration.

Mr. Zhang Dechang believes that this year's college entrance examination essay questions focus on cultivating students' discursive, to have a sense of the big picture, the sense of truth, these are the essential elements of a person's success, both from the big aspects such as the development of the country, the formulation of policies, but also from the small aspects, such as the growth of human beings to talk about. Most students can write their own opinions based on the material, but it is still difficult to write a profound and thoughtful essay.

Proliferation of ideas

The issue of choosing a school

Easy to make the mistake of "survivor bias"

When I saw the Shaanxi college entrance examination essay topic, Professor Zhang Weiqun of the School of Statistics at Xi'an University of Finance and Economics and a few colleagues were in the middle of a heated discussion because the material embodied the theory of statistics, "survivor bias". The first time I saw this was when I was a student at the University of California, Berkeley, and the University of California, Berkeley. Speaking of the essay, Zhang Weiqun said, "The topic is very good, but it's a little bit difficult for high school students. If I were to write an essay for the college entrance exam, I would talk about the science of decision-making for individuals, businesses and governments from an epistemological point of view."

"Survivor bias was originally a statistical concept, also known as survivor bias, which was a way of circumventing the problem of decision-making bias such as 'silent data' and 'dead people don't talk'. Now 'survivor bias' has its allegorical interpretation in the disciplines of statistics, economics and philosophy. Statistically speaking, it is that the sample data from which decisions are obtained should be representative, and if there is a 'selective sample', inferences are biased and conclusions will naturally be wrong."

"Survivor bias" is a common mistake that people make in life. For example, a child said, my sister wore a flower shirt and drank milk and ate eggs to get into Peking University, I also want to wear a flower shirt and drink milk and eat eggs, can also get into Peking University. For example, when choosing a school, parents think that "if you go to a good university, you will definitely get into a good university", but in reality, getting into a good university is also related to many factors such as personal talent, hard work, and teacher training. Also see a doctor, friends and relatives suggested that my disease is to find a certain doctor good, may be 100 people in only one of the disease cured, is not necessarily the reason for the medical skill, there are individual differences in factors. These phenomena are biased information, resulting in a decision paradox.

In reality, companies like to learn from successful enterprises, research popular areas, but did not see the success of the enterprise in fact the essence of the information may be invisible things. For example, the success of Alibaba, in addition to depending on the personal ability of managers, but also depends on that era and the environment and many other factors. Corporate learning is important, but decision-making must be fully grasp the full range of information, otherwise, the conclusion may be wrong.

And a regional government to learn from the advanced experience of other regions, the success of the ****ity of the problem, but there are also factors such as geography, geographic location, etc., in the learning process, if you do not grasp the information is not sufficient, not comprehensive may also lead to decision-making bias. So whether it is an individual, business, government and even national decision-making, the first thing is to ensure that the source of decision-making information is sufficiently comprehensive, and secondly, should also be analyzed in the information to find out the intrinsic nature of the factors, and finally to develop a suitable strategy for decision-making. The opposite of the typical is "only see the trees and not see the forest" or "East is like the knitting knit" and so on. This requires that, in the era of big data to ensure that the information source and data source comprehensive and adequate and diversified, multi-channel information, effectively avoiding decision-making information bias, will not lead to "survivor bias".