Capital "kills" Lanzhou Lamian Noodles.

Lamian Noodles in Lanzhou is on fire, especially when I heard that every shopping mall in the inner ring of Shanghai has at least one Lanzhou Lamian Noodles brand, which makes the author, a Lanzhou native who grew up eating Lanzhou beef noodles, have an illusion: "Now I quit my job and go back to my hometown to learn beef noodles in the beef noodle training center, and I still have time to start a business and realize financial freedom!"

But after comparing the "Capital Lamian Noodles" with the authentic Lanzhou beef noodles, I decided to continue the code word.

Why can Lanzhou Lamian Noodles land in the whole country?

First of all, it is cheap, good in quality and low in price, but the entry of capital makes Lanzhou Lamian Noodles the "Hermes" in beef noodles.

Yidu Finance ordered a noodle (27 yuan), a beef (18 yuan), four side dishes (16 yuan) and an egg (3 yuan) at Zhang Lala store in Huang Zhuang, Haidian, and it cost 63.5 yuan.

In Lanzhou, Yidu Finance grinds beef noodles along the ditch in a popular shop, and orders one noodle (8 yuan), one beef (9 yuan), four side dishes (8 yuan) and one egg (2 yuan) for 27 yuan.

You may say, that snail powder is only 8 yuan in Liuzhou, isn't it expensive to sell it? But for Zhang Lala a bowl of 27, Chen Xianggui a bowl of 26 and Ma Jiyong a bowl of 26, what they sell is not expensive, but too expensive!

Compare the time-honored Northwest Restaurant Ximahua and Oriental Palace in Beijing, which have been played all over the country, and the price is only 15-22 yuan.

(The beef noodle prices of Ximahua and Dongfang Palace are slightly different in different stores, and basically fluctuate between 15-22 yuan).

The author who has eaten beef noodles all over Beijing also found that the amount of noodles in Zhang Lala is really small. If he is a boy with a big appetite, he will be a little hungry. It is said that he can renew his noodles for free, but there is no clear order reminder; The side dishes are also very small. The side dishes in Lamian Noodles are as big as girls' palms, while those in Zhang Lala are not as big as girls' palms.

On the left is the local beef noodles in Lanzhou, and on the right is Zhang Lala (to be fair, the bowls are almost the same size). Please compare the quantities yourself. Lanzhou beef noodles are very thick, and Zhang Lala beef slices are very thin.

Let's start with the taste. As a purebred Lanzhou native, the author reduced Zhang Lala's beef noodles by 50-60% (authentic Lanzhou beef noodles are still delicious, and the higher the reduction, the better the taste). The taste can only be generalized. After investigating several Lanzhou people who have eaten Zhang Lala in Beijing, it is generally believed that Zhang Lala is similar to all kinds of noodle restaurants with the signboard of "Authentic Lanzhou Beef Lamian Noodles" on the street, while Mahua, Oriental Palace and Mazilu in the west of Beijing can restore 70% to 80% authentic beef noodles.

On the left is the local beef noodles in Lanzhou, and on the right is Zhang Lala.

Finally, let's compare the amount of meat that everyone cares about: there are some torn beef strips in Zhang Lala's noodles, but we can't say a lot, which is a little more than the local beef noodles in Lanzhou, but the amount of meat is similar to the ordinary "Lanla" in Beijing and Shanghai.

Intuitive experience of meat quantity in Zhang Lala

There are also some small grooves: for example, four side dishes, baked bran and lotus root, should all come from cooking bags, and it is not certain whether the others are cooking bags; Some flies, big and small, flew over the table; The tendon meat is not cooked and then cut, but cut into ice cubes in the refrigerator. Not only is the plate too cold, but the meat is also a bit fishy.

There is another episode. When Zhang Lala recharges 200 yuan, it will send 200 yuan food coupons. The waiter said no to the guests at the dinner table who asked the waiter to exchange dessert coupons for candy. He questioned the little brother at the dinner table: "I didn't come again and again", and then he felt with his colleagues that this was the drawback of entrepreneurial enterprises.

In fact, I want to tell my little brother that many Lanla shops will not make candied fruit in winter after 10. I wonder if his drinks can be changed successfully in the future.

Some market participants believe that authentic Lanzhou beef noodles may not exist, but more importantly, how to make the industry bigger and stronger.

There's nothing wrong with that. For example, Haidilao, which has been listed, is not the most authentic Sichuan hot pot, nor is it an authentic desktop hot pot. Taier pickled fish is not even a local cuisine, and many Sichuan dishes all over the streets are innovative dishes.

But if I want to cash in Lanzhou Lamian Noodles, I really can't be too optimistic.

There are two main reasons for capital to support Lanzhou Lamian Noodles:

First, Lanzhou Lamian Noodles has been deeply rooted in the hearts of the people and does not need to do market education;

Secondly, the restaurant chain rate in China is still very low, only 65,438+00%, while that in the United States is more than 50%, which shows that there is still much room for growth in China.

The first one is fine. Let's focus on the second one.

Is it sure to succeed in making a chain? Or is it that raising the price of food and beverage will definitely make the chain successful?

27 yuan, a bowl of Lanzhou Lamian Noodles, has a lesson called Taoyuan Shijia Village, which is also the debut of Hermes in the field of soybean milk fritters. Fried dough sticks soybean milk is more deeply rooted in people's hearts than Lamian Noodles in Lanzhou, while Shijia Village in Taoyuan takes the same route as the present capital Lamian Noodles, raising the price to the high-end business district, and raising the original 35 pieces of soybean milk fried dough sticks to 10 yuan.

A bowl of soybean milk 8 yuan, a fried dough stick 6 yuan, a bowl of bean curd 16 yuan, and biscuits and vegetables in taoyuan village are almost all above 25 yuan.

Spending more than 35 yuan per capita, plus two hours of queuing time, makes Beijing full of curiosity about Taoyuan's family village.

On 20 17, taoyuan village completed a round of financing, with Junlian Capital and Yao Ming Assets as investors. At the same time, Taoyuan Village began to expand in Beijing, Tianjin, Hangzhou, Suzhou, Nanjing, Wuhan, Xiamen, Hefei, Chongqing, Chengdu, Shenzhen and other cities with financing. However, since last year, people's novelty for taoyuan village's high-priced luxury meals has passed, and Hermes in the breakfast industry has started its own closing tide because of its low cost performance.

And the author must pour some cold water on Lamian Noodles. Lamian Noodles in Lanzhou is too expensive for the primary market.

Take the author's visit to Zhang Lala as an example. It is planned to raise funds at a valuation of 390 million yuan. According to the author's statistics, 40 stores in Zhang Lala have opened in Beijing, Shanghai and Guangzhou, with an average store value of100000. There are 76 stores in Chen Xianggui with a valuation of 654.38+0 billion, with an average of over 654.38+0 million stores.

Of course, the capital invested by Lanzhou Lamian Noodles will be listed in the future. With reference to the market value of Haidilao or 99.9 cents lower than the number of stores, the market value of a store is more than RMB 1000 million, which should be valued at RMB 65.438+0 billion/store. Then the chain brands in Lamian Noodles should all be valued at10 billion. Sequoia's letter of intent for investment at that time was only 654.38+05 Ma Jiyong 654.38+00 Hospital, so we should adhere to this principle.

However, everyone with discerning eyes knows that Lanzhou Lamian Noodles has a low entry threshold and the market is in a state of complete competition. Obviously, it can't run out of several listed Lamian Noodles.

And if you don't go public, how long will it take to return the investment?

Taking Zhang Lala, Huang Zhuang, Haidian as an example, the author made detailed statistics. There are about 15 tables for four and 20 in the store, which can accommodate about 80 people. According to the author's observation, during the peak hours of 1 13, the turnover rate can reach about 3 times, and many people choose the one commented by the public.

Then it can be roughly estimated that the daily running water in Zhang Lala is 80x30x3x2 =14,400 yuan, and the monthly running water is 432,000 yuan. With the take-away income of 1 12000 yuan, the total monthly income can reach 544,000 yuan, and the annual income can reach 6.528 million yuan. With reference to the net interest rate of 99.9%, let's increase it.

Investing in a store at the price of100000, excluding the time value of funds, will take at least 15 years to recover the investment, and it is also necessary to ensure that the noodle restaurant can continue to operate during this 15 year, which is not a good deal for professional venture capital institutions.

The reason why Lanzhou Lamian Noodles can get the money is because the current single-store model looks better.

For example, Zhang Lala, Chen Xianggui and Ma Jiyong, the three "giants", all followed the popularity of carving beef brisket, Huang Taiji and taoyuan village when they started their businesses, telling the capital that "we can make money".

However, with the expansion, we can't multiply the current single-store model by the total number of stores in the future, and then look for capital withdrawal and expansion according to this valuation. The single-store model of "more stores and more money" has been overthrown by the big brother Haidilao, and Haidilao's once proud turnover rate has now become the biggest incentive for the stock price to dive.

Moreover, how can we ensure that the turnover rate will not decline when we open such a dense store in Lamian Noodles?

Take Chen Guixiang as an example. According to the statistics of public comments, Du Finance has 123 stores in Shanghai, and there are about 80-90 Xiaoyang fried, McDonald's, KFC and Barbie steamed bread which have been deeply cultivated in the Shanghai market for many years. This is just Chen Xianggui's family, as well as Ma Jiyong and Zhang Lala. In the future, more than 300 chain stores in Lanzhou and Lamian Noodles will spread all over Shanghai. In addition, if the turnover rate of the existing Jielan Lamian Noodles does not decrease, the model of "more shops and more money" can work. I think there is only one possibility-friends near these business districts in Shanghai eat a bowl of Lamian Noodles in Lanzhou, 26 yuan every day, and even Xiao Yang has no confidence.

Compared with the birthplace of Lanzhou, there are nearly 1, 700 beef noodle restaurants in Lanzhou. You can see a noodle restaurant within 5 minutes' walk. The city sells about 1, 654,380+0.98 million bowls of beef noodles every day. Lanzhou has a permanent population of 4.359 million, and one out of every four people eats beef noodles every day. The reason for supporting the number of noodle restaurants is the frequency of Lanzhou people eating noodles.

In addition, the expansion of Capital Ramen Restaurant will "kill" many street Ramen Restaurant. According to the big data report of Lanzhou Beef Noodles in 2020, there are 52 1 Lanzhou Lamian Noodles in Shanghai. If the Lanla market in Shanghai is occupied by more than 100 capital Lamian Noodles in the future, there will be no living space for street Lanla. Is this to repeat the mistake of community group buying monopoly?

If the monthly flow of a single store is to be maintained at 500,000-600,000, the annual turnover of more than 300 stores will be nearly 2 billion. According to the research of NCBD, the annual income of Lanzhou Ramen Restaurant in China is about 25 billion yuan. Based on this calculation, people who are afraid of eating Lamian Noodles in the future 10 are all in Shanghai.

Think about it, where did the capital of Lanzhou Lamian Noodles invest? Capital is to reverse the eating habits of friends in first-tier cities. According to this expansion idea, everyone will eat Lamian Noodles with a unit price of more than 30 in the future, so as to support the valuation of Lanzhou Lamian Noodles!

Stop it, turn off the lights and eat noodles!