China's oil and gas security facing a serious situation characterized by

One, the contradiction between oil supply and demand has intensified

Oil consumption has entered a period of rapid growth, the gap between oil supply and demand will become larger and larger, and has become an important constraint on China's economic and social development. With the accelerated process of urbanization and people's living standards continue to improve, the consumption of petroleum and petrochemical products will grow significantly, the quality of products and varieties of requirements will be increasingly high. At present, the market demand for refined oil products is strong, and the refinery operation rate has reached 90%, but the supply is still tightening. It is expected that by 2020, the domestic demand for gasoline, kerosene, diesel fuel will reach 260 million tons, the demand for ethylene will reach 23 million tons, the demand for the three major synthetic materials will reach 92 million tons, all more than double the 2003 growth. By then, ethylene and other chemical products will have about 40% need to be imported from abroad.

Two, China's dependence on foreign oil to increase

According to the U.S. Department of Energy predicted that in 2010 and 2020, China's dependence on foreign oil were up to 50% and 60%; and the International Energy Agency (IEA) predicted a higher figure, respectively, 65% and 76%. According to the domestic analysis and forecast, the first half of the 21st century, China's oil and gas, especially natural gas supply and demand contradictions are very prominent, the degree of foreign dependence is getting higher and higher. Japan's comprehensive energy survey under the International Energy Subcommittee predicts that in 2010 China's oil consumption will exceed Japan to rank first in Asia. Was famous for "oil wind and clouds" masterpiece, now for the United States Cambridge Energy Research Society, chairman of the United States Strategic Energy Research and Development Special Research Group, Daniel Yekin is also very concerned about the new energy consuming countries in Asia, especially China's oil demand growth trend. He said: "The growth of the world's overall oil production capacity will have to be met by the growth in demand from developing countries, which is largely led by China and India." Although there is a certain discrepancy between the relevant forecast data at home and abroad, but the estimation of China's oil security change trend is consistent:Domestic crude oil self-sufficiency rate is declining, and the degree of external dependence is getting higher and higher.

The higher the degree of foreign dependence on oil, the more vulnerable the security of oil supply is likely to be. Some people say that China's future oil security problems in the "overseas" way out. From the perspective of development, this view seems to be a bit alarmist. But it has revealed a fact that can not be ignored: China's oil security problems, inseparable from the international oil market and the international economic and political environment; China's oil security strategy, in a sense, is a kind of oil foreign strategy or oil international strategy.

Three, by the international energy market changes in the influence of the oil import channels there are risks and pitfalls

China's ability to overseas energy transportation security is seriously inadequate. Energy security, in the final analysis, is the proportionate relationship between a country's energy dependence on foreign countries and its ability to participate in and control international affairs politically and militarily. The greater a country's energy dependence on foreign countries, and the less its ability to participate in foreign military and diplomatic affairs, the lower the coefficient of oil security in that country and the greater the risk of insecurity. For modern states, a central part of the state's ability to participate in and control world affairs is the ability of navies to operate freely around the world. At present, among the world's major powers, China's maritime political and military participation and control capability is correspondingly weak.

The sources of China's crude oil imports in 2006 are shown in Figure 2-4.

Figure 2-4 Sources of China's crude oil imports in 2006 (Source: Proceedings of China-Russia-Harbinia Oil Forum, 2007)

Figure 2-5 Major sources of China's crude oil imports (Source: Proceedings of China-Russia-Harbinia Oil Forum, 2007)

China's oil imports are mainly China's oil imports are mainly concentrated in the Middle East and Africa (Figure 2-5), with oil imports from the Middle East and Africa accounting for 46% and 29% of the total imports respectively in 2004. In addition, from Russia and Central Asia and Southeast Asia also have about 10% of imports respectively. Among them, the Middle East and Africa are the main regions where the international political and economic situation is currently in turmoil, with persistent localized conflicts and frequent terrorist incidents. After the two Iraq wars, with the United States in the Middle East more and more influence, China's oil imports in the Middle East is more vulnerable to constraints. 2004, more than 70% of China's imports of crude oil is through the Strait of Hormuz, the Suez Canal and the Straits of Malacca to reach the country, 90% of the imported crude oil transportation by sea, once the international relations of the tensions in the situation, China's maritime oil transportation channel will be a serious threat. The channel will be seriously threatened.

Four, the lack of good strategic oil reserves to ensure

Strategic oil reserves system includes the construction of oil reserve base and through participation in the international crude oil market operations, to achieve hedging reserves. The United States, Japan and other energy-consuming countries, the oil base reserve is about 3 months of national consumption. According to this standard, as the second largest energy consumer, China should reserve 37.5 million tons at present, 10 years later should reserve 75 million tons. At present, China has just begun to establish a national oil reserve system.

Fifth, due to the low efficiency of energy utilization and waste caused by man-made reasons, is the primary factor threatening China's oil security

To the unit of energy consumption to measure, China's energy efficiency is not only far below the level of the developed countries, and even far lower than the same degree of development of the country. 2000, calculated in terms of nominal exchange rate at that time, China is the unit of energy consumption per unit of output value is one of the highest countries In 2000, China was one of the countries with the highest energy consumption per unit of output in terms of nominal exchange rate at that time, reaching 1,274 tons of standard coal, which was 3.5 times that of the United States (364 tons of standard coal), 6 times that of the European Union (214 tons of standard coal), and 9.7 times that of Japan (131 tons of standard coal). Our energy consumption indicator is even higher than that of India (889 tons of standard coal). In addition to waste due to the low level of technology resulting in inefficient use of energy, waste caused by man-made reasons is particularly distressing.

Sixth, international political and military factors threaten oil security

China's Taiwan issue, territorial disputes with neighboring countries, may make the international political and military environment in a certain period of time to deteriorate, will have a direct impact on China's oil security. From the point of view of international strategy and geopolitical strategy, the United States feeds a huge offensive military force and controls 16 of the world's most important sea routes, and its main goal is to control oil resources. Attempts by the superpowers to use oil resources to contain China cannot be taken lightly. In the future, the contradictions between world oil supply and demand will be intricate and complicated, and the uncertainties that trigger political, military and diplomatic conflicts and contradictions will increase, which will have a direct and important impact on the world or regional oil market. Although the international environment is conducive to China's use of two kinds of resources, two kinds of funds to accelerate development, but must seize the favorable opportunity to clarify the strategic approach to oil security, and to be fully implemented.

Seven, the difficulty of overseas investment

China's oil overseas investment is difficult, mainly reflected in the overseas investment policy insurance system is not perfect, insufficient funds, the investment cost is too high, overseas investment management system limitations and so on several aspects.

1. Overseas investment policy insurance system is imperfect

Since many of China's petroleum projects are invested in some countries with high political risks, oil overseas investment faces risks caused by war, unrest, property confiscation, nationalization, foreign exchange control, such as the war in the Middle East. However, so far, no policy on overseas investment insurance has been introduced. In order to prevent these political risks, many developed countries have formulated policy risk policies for overseas investment; some international financial institutions (such as the World Bank) have also carried out guarantee business.

2. Insufficient capital constrains the development of overseas investment

Chinese enterprises in overseas development of oil fields are generally not too large. Even a relatively large-scale oil field like Sudan is invested by multiple parties*** together, thus obtaining a smaller share of the oil and revenue. At the same time, due to the lack of funds, financing channels are narrow, enterprises in the contracting of overseas petroleum projects loans and the issuance of letters of guarantee and other difficulties, sometimes have to give up some very good projects.

3. Investment cost is too high

In recent years, Chinese enterprises in order to win the overseas oil projects, generally offer low prices, and individual enterprises even bid for the price below the cost, it seems that once they win the bidding means that everything is a success. But when they fulfill a number of contracts, only to find that after fierce price competition to the hands of the project profit is too little, which is the most typical case is the acquisition of Kazakhstan oil fields by PetroChina. 1997, PetroChina invested 3.5 billion U.S. dollars to buy part of Kazakhstan's oil company's crude oil reserves, and plans to build a 3,000-kilometer-long pipeline, direct to the west of China. After the company won the bid, only to find that the project investment capital is too large, and rely on the income from the exploitation of local crude oil, can not make up for the huge expenditure, and finally forced to shelve due to the high cost, so that the enterprise has suffered serious economic losses.

4. Overseas investment management system constraints on the development of overseas oil investment

China's current management system, is the implementation of the approval system for overseas investment projects. In terms of the approval limit, its main content is the Chinese investment in 1 million U.S. dollars and above overseas investment projects, as well as more than 30 million U.S. dollars of overseas reinvestment projects, need to be approved by the state. In terms of approval procedures, two procedures are stipulated for the approval of project proposals and feasibility study reports. The above approval system was formulated in the early 1990s. At present, it is no longer adapted to the time-sensitive and high-intensity investment characteristics of overseas investment projects. In terms of the investment limit, projects of 1 million US dollars mostly adopt public bidding, and the prominent feature of bidding is its timeliness, so if the approval is too late to participate in the bidding, the time may be lost.

In addition, in terms of foreign exchange management, because China has not yet implemented the free conversion under the capital account, overseas investment enterprises are still subject to certain restrictions on the amount of foreign exchange.

Eighth, the pricing mechanism lacks flexibility

International oil prices are high, the healthy development of China's economy has been adversely affected. China's oil pricing mechanism lacks flexibility, making China's oil security in the changes in international oil prices suffered great risks.

1. The impact of rising international oil prices on China's macro-economy

Rising international oil prices will inhibit the economic growth rate and increase inflationary pressure. Rising international oil prices, China's economic operation and residents of life has brought some negative impact, high oil prices will increase foreign exchange spending, increase the cost of enterprises, increase consumer spending, inhibit economic vitality, exacerbate the potential for inflationary pressures, which will increase the difficulty of the national macro-control.

Rising international oil prices will increase consumer spending. Individual consumers will directly become the bearer of high oil prices. 2009, due to the international oil prices continue to rise, China's five times to raise the price of refined oil products, obviously increased some consumers in this area of expenditure, and led to some of the consumption of austerity or consumption transfer behavior. With the upgrading of the consumption structure dominated by homes, cars and high-grade home appliances, the growth of living consumption of oil has increased. Therefore, the future of oil and living consumption of the relationship between the increasingly close, more and more impact on the lives of residents.

Rising international oil prices will increase the production costs of related enterprises. With China's economy into the expansion period, the past two years, oil consumption growth rate of more than 10% above the elasticity coefficient of energy consumption has risen significantly, China's oil dependence on the outside world has reached 43.3, a sharp rise in international oil prices is bound to bring a great impact on the various sectors of the national economy. Oil is the main cost of transportation, transportation industry in recent years, the rapid rise in oil consumption, and thus the transportation industry bear the brunt of the impact of high oil prices; at the same time, fertilizers, pesticides, agricultural films, as well as agricultural machinery, and so on, but also due to rising oil prices to make the cost of production rise.

2. China's oil pricing mechanism to oil security risks

China's current oil prices, although the use of international oil prices, but the timing of the convergence is still regulated by the relevant government departments, in particular, whether the refined oil products with the international oil price convergence, to be approved by the relevant state departments, which indicates that the price of the right to decide the government in the hands. Since international oil price fluctuations sometimes do not reflect domestic supply and demand, the Government has not clearly defined the price difference between crude oil and refined oil products and the adjustment criteria, but only vaguely said that oil prices fluctuate to a "certain extent" and "appropriate adjustments". This is a manifestation of the lack of flexibility in our current oil pricing mechanism. Due to our oil pricing mechanism is not flexible enough, resulting in our country in the international oil price fluctuations are extremely passive, can not well avoid the risk, to China's oil security brings great risk.

Nine, the natural gas industry has entered a period of rapid growth

Foreign energy research organizations predict that the next 20 to 30 years, the world's total natural gas consumption is likely to exceed oil, becoming the world's largest energy source. By 2020, China's natural gas production will grow from the current 34 billion cubic meters to 120 billion cubic meters, natural gas demand will grow from more than 30 billion cubic meters to about 200 billion cubic meters, the supply gap of about 80 billion cubic meters. By then, the proportion of natural gas in the primary energy consumption structure will rise from 3% to about 10%, becoming China's third largest energy source after coal and oil.

Ten, the world's oil and gas resources have great potential, but uneven distribution

At present, the world's oil and natural gas resources proved rate of 60% and 40%, respectively, to be proved oil and gas reserves of 170 billion tons and 225 trillion cubic meters, respectively, resource potential is still very large, the world's oil and gas exploration is still in the more active period. The world's remaining oil and gas resources are mainly distributed in the Middle East, East Asia, Russia and a few other regions and countries. At present, these regions are actively implementing the policy of opening up to the outside world, and large foreign companies are carrying out a new round of restructuring and reorganization, which provides opportunities for our country to utilize foreign resources and take advantage of geopolitical and foreign policy advantages for foreign resource development. In addition, oil is becoming more and more relevant to the international financial market, international politics and diplomacy, and the military situation. Although the world's oil production overall will maintain sustained growth, supply and demand will remain basically balanced situation, but under the influence of a variety of factors, unpredictability is more obvious, the international oil prices will still be ups and downs.

Eleven, China's oil transportation capacity and demand for a greater gap

Chinese Shipowners Association only 10% of the maritime oil imports, especially in the Middle East east and West Africa on the eastbound route, the Chinese Shipowners Association of the share of the transport is even less. The reason for this is, first of all, related to the insufficient carrying capacity of the Chinese Shipowners Association. Compared with container and bulk carrier shipping, China's tanker transportation is small. At present, the large tankers controlled by Chinese shipowners VLCC 200,000 ~ 300,000 dwt and AFRAMAX 80,000 ~ 120,000 dwt are only about 10 respectively. Even if all services for China's crude oil imports, at best, the annual carrying capacity of only 30 million to 40 million tons.

Secondly, the low share of imported oil carried by the China Shipowners' Association (CSA) is also related to the lack of cooperation between oil companies and tanker companies, which have not established a long-term strategic partnership. China Merchants, for example, has been serving the international tanker transportation market since it began operating its tanker fleet in 1990, and in 2002, the China Merchants tanker fleet **** carried 31.068 million tons of oil for customers around the world, of which China's imported oil was only 2.273 million tons, accounting for 7.32% of the fleet's total capacity. In other words, 92.68% of the total capacity of China Merchants Tanker fleet is serving the international market.

Currently, China is engaged in the import of crude oil shipping business, mainly China Ocean Shipping Group Corporation, China Shipping Group Corporation, China Merchants Group Co. Ltd, China Yangtze River Shipping Group and China Foreign Trade and Transportation Group Corporation and other state-owned enterprises, as well as private enterprises such as Hebei Ocean Shipping Company Limited and Dalian Haichang Group Company Limited. With the increase of China's crude oil imports, maritime transportation enterprises show rapid development trend. As of 2006, the oil transportation capacity of China's maritime enterprises has exceeded 12 million deadweight tons, but most of China's imported crude oil is transported by international tanker transportation enterprises, and the proportion of domestic enterprises is only 10% to 20%. The main reason for this is that the number of Chinese tankers is limited, and it is difficult to match the sailing schedule of China's imported crude oil. Moreover, the overall equipment level of Chinese tankers is low, the fleet structure is unreasonable, the management is relatively backward, and the recognition in the international market is low. In addition, China has not yet acceded to the 1997 Protocol to the 73/78 MARPOL Convention, and thus has no right to issue relevant certificates to ships of Chinese nationality; meanwhile, ships of Chinese nationality entering the ports of the 97 contracting parties are subject to stringent inspections, and may even be refused to enter the ports or be detained. The above situation shows that there is a lack of long-term strategic cooperation between Chinese oil companies and Chinese tanker owners, and that there is a serious "mismatch" in terms of capacity and demand: on the one hand, 90% of China's oil imports are carried by foreign shipowners; on the other hand, 90% of Chinese shipowners, such as China Merchants, provide services to the international market. Provide services. This situation makes China's crude oil transportation constraints, once the international community political turmoil, resource countries (regions) political instability or emergencies, the safety of China's oil transportation will face great challenges