Corn thundered and wheat rushed to 1.55 yuan. Under the storage of 40,000 tons of pork, will the pig price change?

See you in February, and hello in March! In the spring of March, the domestic agricultural products market, food prices and pig prices showed a "two days of ice and fire" trend. Food prices are sideways high, while pig prices are sideways at the bottom. Farmers not only face the loss of pigs, but also face the pressure of steep increase in fattening costs. Farmers are caught between Scylla and Charybdis! Due to the excessive downward trend of pig prices, the Year of the Tiger ushered in the first wave of pork storage and storage. After Hubei, Sichuan and Ningxia took the lead in opening pork storage and storage, the government will also launch a 40,000-ton pork storage and storage plan on March 3-4, which has certain support for short-term pig prices.

In the grain market, the prices of corn and wheat jumped after the end of February, and the prices of deep processing in many places in Shandong stabilized at 1.4 yuan/kg, while the prices of wheat continued to strengthen, and the prices of wheat stood at 1.5 yuan/kg! The specific analysis is as follows!

Corn prices soared!

Previously, the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, many people think this will aggravate the rise of domestic spot corn. In fact, domestic imports of Ukrainian corn are mainly concentrated from autumn harvest to this year 1 quarter. At this stage, more imported Ukrainian corn comes to Hong Kong, which has little impact on domestic corn prices! However, due to the complicated international situation, it is an indisputable fact that international food prices have risen, which has also pushed up the domestic corn import price!

In the domestic market, with the acceleration of corn sales in domestic corn producing areas, Northeast China and North China markets, the sentiment of selling grain among grass-roots growers has weakened and the bullish sentiment has increased sharply. However, with the shortage of domestic demand-side inventory, the mood of drying towers and traders in Northeast China has increased sharply, and the price of corn in the market outlook has risen sharply, and domestic spot corn has generally risen!

It is understood that the quotations for deep processing in many places in Northeast China have risen, and some factories have raised their prices by 40 yuan/ton. In Heilongjiang, Jilin and Liaoning markets, the bullish sentiment of deep processing enterprises has intensified, and the stimulus of price increase has increased. Some traders are worried that the low-priced corn in Northeast China will be diverted, which has the power to raise prices and also intensifies the strength of the Northeast market. After all, the surplus grain at the grassroots level continues to decrease, and the market is bullish!

In North China, Shandong, Hebei, Henan and other places, the quotations for deep processing generally rose. Among them, in Shandong, the arrival of deep processing continued to decrease, the inventory of enterprises continued to consume, and the ex-factory price rose sharply. In the Shandong market, factory quotations generally rose, and the quotations of some factories such as Jining Parkson, Qixing Lemon, Zhucheng Xingmao, Changle Xuan Ying and Yishui Dida rose to 2800~2850 yuan/ton!

In March, with the rise of domestic temperature, there may be a short-term corn supply peak in the northeast market. However, due to the rise in international food prices and the sharp increase in the sentiment of opening positions on the domestic demand side, there is a risk that corn prices will not fall sharply. In March, the corn market will be dominated by a narrow range of shocks. Coupled with the shortage of surplus grain at the grassroots level, traders' price sentiment will increase sharply, and the corn market will rise sharply in the middle and late stages!

Wheat stands firm 1.5 yuan/kg!

In the domestic wheat market, the price of wheat continues to rise. The quotations of mainstream flour processing enterprises have stood firmly at 1.5 yuan/kg, and some factories have increased their prices by 1.55 yuan/kg! The price of wheat has risen. Although the sales of flour entered the off-season after the year, due to the shortage of factory inventory and the bottoming out of domestic grass-roots surplus grain, the traders' inventory is low. In order to stabilize production, the factory can only passively raise prices and collect grain! Therefore, wheat stocks are very low. Personally, I think that the production capacity of live pigs continued to recover last year, and corn replaced more. After entering the Spring Festival of the Year of the Tiger, although the temporary storage wheat continued to be auctioned, the transaction volume was limited and the price reached a new high, which obviously supported the spot wheat!

Therefore, under the support of multiple factors, the quotation of Shandong mainstream flour mills in domestic areas reached 1.425~ 1.535 yuan/kg, and the quotation of many mills was stable at 1.5~ 1.53 yuan/kg.

In Hebei market, the purchase price of Daming Wudeli wheat rose to 1.55 yuan/kg! In Henan market, the price of wheat is stable at 1.48~ 1.52 yuan/kg.

Pig prices have fallen, and 40,000 tons of pork have come!

Now the grain market has suddenly gone up, but the price of live pigs has risen obviously. In the last two months, the price of live pigs has continued to be low and sideways. In March 1, the average price of live pigs was only 6.25 yuan/kg, and the domestic market has been fully and continuously stabilized. Only the price of live pigs in Heilongjiang province has fallen within a narrow range!

However, judging from the market performance, slaughter enterprises have the mood of keeping prices down! On the one hand, the arrival of pigs in slaughterhouses in the north has increased, and the procurement difficulty of slaughterhouses has weakened; On the other hand, the price of white pigs is too low, the slaughterhouse has obvious losses, and traders also have obvious resistance. There is a surplus of commodities in the wholesale market, and the downstream consumer demand continues to be sluggish.

Therefore, the market tends to be weak and volatile!

However, with the arrival of a new round of pork storage, there will be 40,000 tons of pork storage in two days, which has obvious favorable support for short-term pig prices. Therefore, the expectation that the domestic pig price will fluctuate strongly in early March will continue! However, after farmers reduced slaughter for more than half a month, pigs continued to gain weight, while the domestic feed cost rose sharply, and the fattening foundation of pigs was poor, and the loss of slaughter of farmers was still obvious. Therefore, some farmers may take advantage of the favorable opportunity of pork storage and eager to slaughter. It is expected that the supply of live pigs in the domestic market will increase substantially in the middle and late March, and the price of pigs will tend to fall. Personally, I think the price of pigs will drop around 65430 this month.

Pig prices rose, 40,000 tons of pork were purchased and stored, corn soared, and wheat stood firm 1.5 yuan! What do you think of this?

# Corn price #