Advantages and disadvantages of exponential weighted average method

Advantages of the index weighted average method: the greater the comprehensive index value, the better the work quality, and the number of indicators is unlimited. When using the weighted average method, the choice of weight is a problem that should be paid attention to. Empirical method and trial and error method are the simplest methods to choose weights. Generally speaking, the latest data can best predict the future situation, so the weight is more important.

Advantages and disadvantages of moving average method: forecasting with moving average method can smooth the influence of sudden fluctuation of demand on forecasting results. Increasing the period number of moving average method (that is, increasing the value of n) will make the smoothing effect better, but it will make the predicted value less sensitive to the actual change of data.

Moving average method needs a lot of past data records.

basic content

Time series is a set of observed or recorded values arranged by the same variable in the order of events. There are two elements that make up a time series: one is time, and the other is the level of variables corresponding to time. The time series of actual data can show the development trend and law of the research object in a certain period, so we can find out the characteristics, trends and development law of variables from the time series, so as to effectively predict the future changes of variables.