What are the characteristics of the international financial crisis since 2008? Is there a financial crisis in China?

The financial tsunami that broke out in the United States in 2008 swept the world, and the world economy was affected to varying degrees, and the world economy experienced a large-scale recession. All countries in the world have taken measures to deal with the impact of the financial crisis. We can see that the sovereign debt crisis in Western Europe is still unresolved and the world economy is shrouded in a dark cloud. In this case, what should China do? When will the world economy recover?

In 2008, the global financial crisis triggered by the American subprime mortgage crisis affected everyone's life. Take our students for example, seeing their meager living expenses getting tighter and tighter! There are many explanations about the causes of this financial crisis. At present, a unified explanation is that the excessively loose credit policy of the US government led to the subprime mortgage crisis of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, and then the subprime mortgage crisis transferred to the financial market until the bubble of the subprime mortgage crisis burst, broke out in the United States and swept the world. According to Marx's Capital Theory, the financial crisis in capitalist countries is inevitable, because the contradiction between socialization of production and privatization of means of production has reached an irreconcilable level!

Looking around the world, we can find that this financial crisis has the following characteristics in addition to the original characteristics of previous financial crises in the capitalist world:

1, wide range

The financial crisis triggered by the American real estate market spread rapidly to the whole world, and the United States, Canada, Europe, Asia, Africa … spread to almost every corner of the world. With the development of globalization and the maturity of economic globalization, the economic ties between countries are getting closer and closer, and the economic division of labor and cooperation are becoming more and more detailed. If one link goes wrong, it will affect the whole world, especially the big economies in the world, such as China, Japan, Germany, France and Britain. In addition, the US dollar is the universal currency, which enables the United States to buy the world's wealth. All countries send their goods and services to the United States to reserve US dollars or buy US treasury bonds. If the United States wants to overdraw, it can start printing dollars when the money is not enough, so that the United States can exchange dollars for the wealth of various countries. This is the root cause of Americans' overdraft consumption and the hegemony of the dollar.

2. The crisis is very serious.

This financial crisis can be said to be a heavy blow to the global economy. From the beginning of 2007 to August this year, the Federal Reserve, the European Central Bank, the Bank of Japan and the Australian Central Bank rarely joined forces to inject capital. The European Central Bank injected 690 euros a day after its capital injection scale exceeded "9. 1 1" on August 9.

Since August 9, the Federal Reserve has injected capital to "rescue the market" four times in a row, with a total amount as high as 7 1 100 million US dollars. However, the crisis broke out. On June 65438+1October 2 1 day, 2008, the global stock market was in a state of "free fall", and the FTSE 100 index in London closed at 5578 points, down 5.5%. Frankfurt Xetra DAX index closed at 6790 points, down 7.2%; Paris CAC40 index closed at 4744 points, down 6.8%;

Tokyo Nikkei index closed at 13325, down 3.86%; South Korea's Seoul Composite Index closed at 1683, down 2.95%; Hong Kong's Hang Seng Index fell below 24,000 points to close at 238 18, a decrease of 5.49%. India's Sensex index closed at 17605, down 7.4 1%. On Monday, the A-share market recorded the biggest decline in the second half of the year, falling by 5. 14%, and the Shanghai Composite Index fell below 5 100 and 5,000 points in the afternoon.

3 o'clock and 4900 o'clock are three psychological points. Analysts exclaimed: The global financial crisis triggered by the American financial crisis has begun. At this point, the world was in a panic, financial markets in various countries fluctuated, and investors withdrew their funds to avoid risks. We have seen the Icelandic debt crisis after the subprime mortgage crisis, and the Greek debt crisis is already the debt crisis of the whole western Europe. Looking back at the United States, the whole United States has been shrouded in the shadow of the 2008 financial crisis, and the unemployment rate is as high as 9.0%, and it remains high. Some people even say that this financial crisis is worse than the Great Depression of 1929!

3. It has a profound impact.

The financial crisis in the capitalist world can generally be recovered within one or two years after the crisis. However, we can see that the financial tsunami triggered by the subprime mortgage crisis in the United States has not recovered for two years and is still spreading, affecting the development of the global economy. After the financial tsunami broke out, the China government immediately took measures and adopted a series of economic stimulus plans, such as injecting 4 trillion yuan into the market to expand domestic demand; The American government has also adopted two rounds of economic stimulus plans ... but what we see is that the world economy still shows no signs of rising, and the global economy is still shrouded in dark clouds! Some people even commented that the financial crisis has set the American economy back at least 10 years! Japan's economy has been in negative growth since the signs of recession appeared in 2008. Except for Germany and France, the European economy has maintained this weak growth. Other economies are in a serious crisis and the country is in danger of "bankruptcy". We see that the sovereign debt crisis from Iceland to Greece and even Western Europe is still worsening, dragging down the global economy! The road to world economic recovery is still confused!

Although the impact of the global financial tsunami on China is not as obvious as that of western countries, it still has extremely adverse effects on China's economy. With the financial crisis, international trade protectionism is rampant, China's exports are facing a large-scale decline, foreign capital markets are transferring the crisis to the China market for financing, foreign exchange reserves are shrinking, foreign investment is facing a severe test, the real estate industry is experiencing a huge bubble, and the mortgage market is in crisis. The most direct thing is that in 2008, China's economy ended the trend of double-digit growth for five consecutive years, and the GDP growth rate slowed down obviously! We see that the investment of China financial enterprises in American investment banks has suffered losses with the bankruptcy or business depression of investment banks; Some foreign-related enterprises or joint ventures and cooperative enterprises with the United States have reduced their profits due to the crisis; The international financial crisis has curbed the consumer demand in the US and European markets, thus affecting the growth of China's export industry; In the coastal areas of China's traditional export-oriented economic areas, many export-oriented enterprises are in danger of bankruptcy due to shrinking external demand. Since 2008, large-scale small enterprises in the south have closed down, and a large number of migrant workers have returned home, and many school-age employees are facing employment pressure; China's real estate market has also seen the phenomenon that the bubble is about to burst, and the financial market has fluctuated; The domestic stock market is weak and the investment enthusiasm is not high; National prices continue to rise, and the consumer index CPI remains high. Everyone in China's daily life has been hit by the financial crisis! We have seen that the price of food closely related to people's livelihood has risen sharply in two years, and some foods have even doubled. Many residents are on the verge of poverty.

Of course, China has said since ancient times that crises contain both dangers and opportunities. At present, we should not only see the challenges brought by the financial crisis to China's economy in transition, but also see the opportunities contained in it. The opportunities brought by the financial crisis to China are also rare. Compared with the world economy, China's economy has not suffered too much impact in this financial storm, which is mainly due to China's determination and correct economic policies in dealing with this financial storm. We must always keep a clear head and realize the deep-seated problems of economic development reflected by the world economic turmoil. We should scientifically judge crises and opportunities, turn crises into opportunities, ensure growth, people's livelihood and stability, and create a new situation of scientific development. This crisis has brought us the following opportunities:

1. provides an opportunity for the transformation from a big trading country to a big capital country.

After China's entry into WTO, its export capacity has been greatly enhanced, and the whole world is made in China, which also makes China a world trade power. However, most of the exported products are cheap or low-level products, not high-quality high-end high value-added products, so they are not trading powers. Then, a large amount of foreign exchange exchanged for export commodities only becomes foreign exchange reserves, which will fluctuate with the fluctuation of international exchange rate, and there will be a danger of sharp depreciation in the context of the financial crisis. Therefore, taking this financial crisis as an opportunity, we should use this money to buy stocks and bonds in crisis in the United States and western capitalist countries, and buy some large enterprises around the world, and purchase all kinds of such resources for reserve, so as to increase China's voice in important industries. This is a godsend opportunity for China to reserve foreign exchange in the world capital market and turn it into a kind of capital, an international capital, and then become a capital exporting country.

2. RMB may become an international currency.

With the increasing proportion of China's import and export, the trade between countries around the world and China is becoming more and more frequent, and the trade volume is also increasing. In addition, China has huge foreign exchange reserves, and the RMB has been very strong. All countries in the world are willing to reserve RMB, so it is very direct and convenient to do business in the international market. Many countries also hope that RMB will become the world currency. Therefore, in the context of this financial crisis, it is possible to make RMB a convertible currency. The significance of RMB convertibility: it means that we are in circulation with the capital markets of all countries in the world, and we can buy the goods we need all over the world. The internationalization of RMB will also affect our daily life, such as studying abroad, buying a house abroad, traveling abroad and other things will become easier, which will greatly promote the improvement of people's living standards and enrich people's life content to a certain extent.

3. There are favorable changes in attracting talents and purchasing technology.

The financial crisis caused a large number of bankruptcies of American financial institutions, which led to the unemployment of a large number of financial talents on Wall Street. With the appreciation of RMB, the domestic consumption level is relatively low. People who used to spend millions a year now only need a few hundred thousand RMB, and they can live well in China with an annual salary of several hundred thousand RMB, which is not worse than that in the United States to some extent.

More elites from all walks of life are also willing to come to China for gold. Taking advantage of the financial crisis, this talent transfer has saved us a lot of costs and greatly accelerated the pace of catching up with advanced countries. In addition, the technology surplus of American companies has existed for a long time, but these technologies can't pass because of some restrictions imposed by the United States on China. Now that the financial crisis has broken out, the United States is eager to transfer surplus technology, because on the one hand, it can solve the urgent need of lack of funds with surplus technology, on the other hand, once the technology is outdated, it will face a situation of not being sold. Therefore, we should take advantage of the decline of restrictions on technology transfer in the United States, the urgency of transfer and the rise of RMB ratio to greatly reduce the cost of technology exchange and pay close attention to technology exchange.

It provides conditions for adjusting the export structure and product structure.

The United States has always been the largest market for China's exports, and the13 destination of China's exports is the United States, which shows the dependence on the United States. The financial crisis has greatly reduced the consumption in the domestic market of the United States, which has had a great impact on China's export market. Therefore, it is urgent to find other markets to maintain China's manufacturing industry and gradually disperse the export structure of China market. The better choice is the developed capitalist countries in the west such as the European Union and Japan. Although their requirements are higher, we believe that as long as we do enough articles on environmental protection and price rationality, we will definitely get over this hurdle. In addition, the emerging markets in the world, such as the BRIC countries outside China, Russian, Indian, Brazil and South Africa, are also very large markets, with a large population and increasing consumer demand year by year; In Southeast Asia, we should step up the promotion of China-ASEAN Free Trade Area and realize zero tariff as soon as possible. Develop these markets as soon as possible, constantly adjust our exports and realize diversification. Another adjustment is the adjustment of product structure, transforming low-grade products into high-end quality products with high added value. Under this circumstance, our exports will undergo structural changes, from a big trading country to a powerful trading country, gradually reducing our dependence on the American market and enhancing our bargaining power and weight with the United States. [I]

5. Promote the reform of China's economic system.

The financial crisis in the American real estate market originated from the excessively loose credit policy in the United States. We should take a warning, and at the same time, we should see the shortcomings of our own market from the reaction of our market. First of all, China's economic development is heavily dependent on exports, and its economic growth is also export-oriented, which is vulnerable to the impact of external markets. We should adjust the economic structure of China, expand domestic demand, spend more money on domestic construction, effectively improve people's living standards, and transform the economy from export-oriented to internal consumption, so that people can enjoy the fruits of economic development! At the same time, speed up scientific and technological innovation, improve the added value of China's export commodities, and make high-tech commodities bigger and stronger. Secondly, China's economic structure is too single, and most export enterprises are concentrated in the fields of clothing, toys and daily necessities, and vicious competition is serious. The government should strengthen guidance and urge enterprises to adjust their structure, so as to diversify China's economy. Finally, the real estate market bubble is serious, and the crisis of the real estate market in China began to appear from the financial crisis. China should strengthen policy supervision, not allow the wanton expansion of the real estate market, and curb the situation that local governments rely too much on real estate to increase fiscal revenue. It is necessary to curb the rise in holidays, ensure the housing needs of residents, and crack down on investment in real estate speculation. The serious gap between the rich and the poor exposed by the real estate problem should also be solved, and the income distribution should be adjusted to ensure the quality of life of residents.

In order to cope with the financial crisis, the China municipal government has taken a series of measures quickly and decisively to ensure that the economy will not decline! We have seen that the government has implemented a two-year investment plan of 4 trillion yuan, actively promoting consumer goods such as home appliances to the countryside, adjusting product structure and expanding domestic demand. In order to cope with this crisis, we should proceed from the following aspects to ensure the stable development of China's economy:

1, give full play to the superiority of the socialist system.

As a big socialist country, we should first give play to our institutional advantages. There is no contradiction between socialization of production and private ownership of means of production in socialist society, and people all participate in the economic life of the country. It is necessary to give full play to the characteristics of socialism's concentrated efforts to do great things, concentrate the strength of the whole country in accordance with the national economic policy objectives, and build the weak links in the economy well. Give full play to the advantages of democracy, let groups participate in economic development and contribute to national development.

2. Strengthen financial supervision.

If a country doesn't know enough about preventing financial risks, or doesn't handle them properly, it will be difficult to get out of this wave of market when the financial crisis comes, and it is difficult to guarantee itself.

Economic security. Therefore, strengthening financial supervision is the top priority.

First, establish a strong regulatory body and improve the legal system for the supervision of foreign banks. The existing "Management Department of Foreign Financial Institutions" of China People's Bank can serve as the highest authority. Be fully responsible for the supervision of foreign banks and related matters. Local regulatory agencies can also be set up to supervise different foreign banks in Bubu area. And directly under the leadership of the local people's bank. Independent of local government.

Second. Supervision on market access, operation and withdrawal of foreign banks. Market prospective persons must abide by relevant laws and regulations and David's agreement; Be sure to pay attention to transparency in operation. The opaque operation of banks often leads to financial crisis, and the role of external audit can be strengthened in this regard.

Third. Control the approval of financial innovation assets. The development of the financial industry needs some innovative assets, but to strengthen risk assessment management, the outbreak of the financial crisis in the United States stems from its endless financial innovations.

3. Do a good job in macro-control.

Monetary policy. Reduce the RMB loan interest rate and RMB deposit reserve ratio of some financial institutions. Exempt from personal savings deposit interest tax. China took the initiative to lower the benchmark interest rate of RMB loans and reduce the RMB deposit reserve ratio of small and medium-sized financial institutions, indicating that the primary goal of macro-policy has shifted from controlling inflation to promoting steady economic growth. At present, as far as the fundamentals of China are concerned, the macro-economy should continue to focus on maintaining steady growth. In the first half of this year, due to inflationary pressure, interest rates have been raised. With the advent of the financial crisis, the expectation of global economic recession is getting stronger and stronger, and the inflationary pressure brought by commodity prices will be alleviated in the next few months, so inflation should no longer be the primary problem in the future. Due to the impact of the financial crisis, private consumption in the United States has been fundamentally impacted, and China's economy will certainly be greatly impacted by these negative effects in the next year or two due to the substantial reduction in exports. The central bank's interest rate cut and deposit reserve ratio reduction are only preventive measures to stimulate economic growth.

Fiscal policy. In order to stimulate the growth of the real economy, fiscal policy should also

There are adjustments. For example, tax cuts for enterprises. Help them tide over the difficulties; For low-and middle-income families.

The ultimate goal of tax reduction and policy adjustment for urban and rural residents such as the people is to let residents fully enjoy the classics.

The income growth and the improvement of consumption power brought by economic growth will be driven by the growth of demand.

Drive the whole economic growth.

4. Solve domestic problems.

First, stimulate domestic demand and stimulate domestic consumption. The reason why countries in modern society rely on consumption to drive the economy is because industrial technology and agricultural technology are perfect enough. The material production capacity of human beings has been greatly improved, so it is not the lack of production capacity or investment that restricts the economic growth of human beings, but the lack of consumer demand, which is the bottleneck of economic growth. Due to many factors such as the decline in exports. China's industrial enterprises have to slow down production and reduce new investment. The current situation is: overcapacity, no external demand and no domestic demand. This situation has restrained the growth of China's material industry and made it face the problem of insufficient demand. Therefore, the state should take measures to stimulate domestic demand, and China can take measures such as increasing rural investment, realizing industrial upgrading, and strengthening education and medical expenditure. Stimulating rural population consumption in China is the key to stimulating domestic demand, and rural consumption is the core bottleneck of China's economic growth.

Third, we should adjust the distribution of income and expenditure to narrow the gap between the rich and the poor. Through a series of measures to increase the income of ordinary people, cut the excessive income of the rich. Only when people in the whole society can consume can the whole domestic demand market be opened and our policy of expanding domestic demand take effect. The whole society can be harmonious and stable!

Finally, accelerate the upgrading of industrial structure. Resolutely eliminate backward production capacity through technological upgrading, increase investment in science and technology, and improve the core competitiveness of China enterprises. Cultivate an innovative atmosphere in the whole society and promote positive growth through new technologies and new means. At the same time, it is necessary to formulate relevant industrial policies, support small and medium-sized enterprises and emerging technology enterprises, and enhance the international influence of China's economy by supporting a number of large enterprises with international competitiveness. [2]

5. Maintain good cooperative relations with major economies in the world. Maintaining good trade is a necessary measure for China's economy to maintain exports. By opening up emerging markets such as Africa, South China and ASEAN, we can expand the sales of American goods and bring new vitality to China's economic development. At the same time, the exchange and trade of gold is also an effective means to maintain good diplomatic relations between countries. Under the global financial crisis, we should maintain good relations with other countries. Avoid other countries transferring crises, transfer domestic contradictions by means of war or currency war, and achieve the purpose of resolving the financial crisis.

In today's world, peace and development are still the theme, and the world is still in a super-strong situation. World globalization has fully developed. The economic activities of countries are getting closer and closer, and this global financial crisis requires people all over the world to unite and deal with it together. We should fully respect the development path chosen by the people of all countries, oppose trade protectionism, interfere in other countries' economies and oppose currency wars. We believe that with the development of globalization, the links between countries will become closer and closer, and mankind should work together to solve various crises faced by * * *, not only economically, but also in terms of environment, resources, food and health.

China finds its place in international development, does not seek hegemony or alliance, and adheres to an independent foreign policy of peace. Contribute to building a harmonious world.

[i] Economic Forum-Analysis of the 2008 World Financial Crisis and Countermeasures of China Enterprises

[ii] Tong Jingyang, Liu Aihua-the formation of the world financial crisis and China's response.