Trends in the development of space technology

In the next 30 years, the world's space technology will continue to develop rapidly, and the investments of the major space-faring countries will be concentrated mainly in the following areas, with the focus of investment on space transportation systems and various application satellites with obvious economic benefits.

(I) Space Transportation System

Reducing the price of spacecraft launches is the main direction of effort. The existing price of low-orbit transportation is about 10,000 to 20,000 dollars per kilogram, which is far from the goal of 1,000 dollars per kilogram. Therefore, spacefaring powers are studying the development of new heaven and earth transportation systems. A variety of new space transportation programs have been proposed. One of the main points is to develop transportation tools that can be reused many times. According to its takeoff and landing mode, roughly divided into three categories:

1. Vertical takeoff, vertical landing. The United States McDonnell Douglas research triangular fast sail is a typical representative. It is a single-stage rocket, *** have 8 sets of main engine, takeoff 8 sets of all work, return to the landing when using one of the 4 work deceleration, recycling and reuse. Take-off weight of 463 tons, load weight of 4.5 tons, the total height of the arrow body 38.7 meters.

2. Vertical takeoff, horizontal landing. Typical representative of the United States is the existing space shuttle. But the space shuttle due to maintenance and other high costs, so the cost per kilogram of delivery is still big dry 10,000 U.S. dollars, than the design of 350 U.S. dollars over a lot. In order to reduce the price of transport, Martin is studying the new code-named X-33 "Adventure Star" program, which take-off weight of 1,000 tons, load weight of 20 tons, the price of transport is expected to be significantly reduced.

3. Horizontal takeoff, horizontal landing. Typical representative of foreign countries are studying the space plane. The use of suction engine, the use of oxygen in the atmosphere with its own liquid hydrogen as a propellant. Divided into single-stage (U.S. NASP program) and two-stage (German Sanger program) into orbit two kinds. The Space Shuttle can be used multiple times to send satellites into space and then return to earth like an airplane for reuse. It is still in the research stage because of the technical difficulties and the required investment.

While a variety of reusable transportation systems are carrying out research, but for quite a long time space launches are still inseparable from the disposable launch vehicle, so the development of non-polluting, high thrust, low-cost new launch vehicle is still the direction of the efforts of space powers. In China's 863 high-tech program, tracking research, conceptual research and some key technology advance pre-study have been arranged for the advanced heaven and earth round-trip transportation system and the new generation of large launch vehicles.

(II) Artificial Satellites

Application satellites will be commercialized more often due to their high economic benefits. In the next 10 years, 1,700 satellites are expected to be launched, valued at 120 billion dollars, 70% of which are commercial satellites with large benefits. Therefore, countries and companies developing space technology are first focusing their funds on the development of various artificial satellites. Various application satellites will continue to raise their level, lower their cost and expand their scope of application. In the area of remote sensing, in addition to the development of land and ocean resource satellites, the monitoring of the Earth's environment and disaster reduction activities will be strengthened. The U.S. Earth Mission Program, as well as the Earth environment monitoring programs envisioned by Japan and Europe, are designed to monitor global or regional environmental changes and to make forecasts of multiple disasters that may occur. In the area of satellite communications, in addition to the continued development of large-capacity, multi-spectral, high-power, long-life geostationary orbit communications satellites, the development and launch of personal mobile communications systems in medium- and low-orbit networking by small satellites is an important direction today. For example, the United States Motorola will build a small satellite cluster communication system. It consists of 66 satellites to form a global network, can be carried out in the global scope of personal cell phone direct communication.

A trend worth noting, in order to be able to obtain a variety of remote sensing information and navigation and positioning in real time at any location on a global scale, and to realize high-speed transmission, the space powers are studying the establishment of a space-based integrated information network. Its emergence will certainly have a significant impact on economic construction and military applications. The space-based information network will become an important part of the information highway. Some futurists predict that by 2010 satellite-fed information will be the most common mode of transmission throughout the world. It is low-cost and developing countries do not have to build costly hardware infrastructure.

The technologies in artificial satellites will continue to be revolutionized, and in addition to the development of comprehensive large-scale application satellites, the development of microsatellites is an important development trend in the future. Its small mass, low cost, fast development and other characteristics have attracted the attention of the relevant units.

In the next 15 years, China's application satellites will take a big step forward. The large communication satellites under development will not only have large capacity and long life, but will also have a variety of frequency bands to suit different purposes. The different remote sensing satellites planned included resource, meteorological, oceanic, environmental and disaster applications, which would not only provide domestic services but also contribute to the world. With regard to the use of satellites for microgravity scientific research, China is already among the world's most advanced, making full use of the favorable conditions on the ground and in space, and with the support of the relevant parties***, the prospects for development are excellent, and there is the possibility of making significant progress in the areas of microorganisms, plant breeding, semiconductor materials, and so on.

(C) large space station

Manned spaceflight is the inevitable development of mankind's development of the cosmic space. Unlike the 1960s, the core of today's world human spaceflight program is the establishment of a long-life large-scale space station in orbit close to the Earth. The space station has the following main functions: (1) remote sensing and microgravity and other scientific research; (2) docking, maintenance and refueling of artificial satellites; (3) assembly work of components or complete machines at the space station; (4) material, astronauts and spacecraft transit base.

In the 1980s, the United States decided to develop a permanent space station, Freedom, weighing about 200 tons. The space station carries 6 to 8 astronauts. Europe, Canada and Japan participated in this program. The former Soviet Union in the late 80's completed the peace 1 space station, and decided to build in the 90's peace 2 space station, weighing 115 tons, with 6 cosmonauts. However, both the U.S. and the Soviet Union made slow progress due to too much investment and repeatedly revised and reduced the original size. After the collapse of the Soviet Union, the Cold War ended. The two countries explored plans to cooperate in a joint effort to build a large space station (the International Space Station) in order to save money. Sixteen countries participate, including Europe, Japan, and Canada***. The weight of the ISS is 423 tons, the electric power is 110 kW, the frame structure, the length and width is 108m X 88m, the experimental module 6, the sealed module volume 1202 cubic meters. There are 6 astronauts. Running orbit altitude of about 400 kilometers, orbit inclination 5l.6.

In-orbit life of 10 to 15 years. Originally planned to be completed in 2002, due to financial and technical difficulties, is expected to complete the program delayed 2 to 3 years. In addition, the operating costs and benefits of the space station remain a major problem.

In the weightlessness of space and other space environment, manufacturing semiconductor materials, special alloys, pharmaceuticals, optical materials and plant breeding, etc., the performance of its products than the ground production of much better quality, high value, it will be the future of space applications in the new areas, the relevant countries are actively carrying out research work.

In order to adapt to the development of China's space industry in the 21st century, the national 863 program has arranged for the research of China's future space station, in addition to the conceptual study of the space station, but also to support the development of the space station system of the key technologies and the space station application of the advance research work.

It should be mentioned that in order to make the space station more effective in its application, the development of space robotics and virtual reality technology is being studied. In this way, scientists and engineers will be able to work on the ground in order to perform the various actions that some people perform in the sky, which is an extremely important field that is being researched in a number of countries around the world.

(D) deep space exploration

The past 40 years in deep space exploration has made relatively large achievements, but it is still only preliminary. In the future, the United States, Russia, Europe and Japan will continue to carry out in-depth exploration of deep space. The two main areas are planetary exploration in the solar system and astronomical observation. Exploration within the solar system includes the sun and the solar-terrestrial space environment, as well as the exploration of Venus, Jupiter, Mars, Mercury, etc. and their surroundings. the focus of exploration in the early 21st century is the moon and Mars. In addition to launching orbiting vehicles to take pictures of the planet's surface, there will be landers, walking robots, and plans to build bases for manned activities on the Moon and Mars. The United States will launch the Mars Global Surveyor several times before 2005. As for astronomical observations, several orbiting observatories are expected to work in space in the future. Future plans for the Hubble telescope in the United States and Europe hold the promise of unlocking the mysteries of the Milky Way and will usher in a new era of astronomical observation. There are also infrared observatories to be launched, cosmic background radiation detectors and other projects that will be of great importance by the end of the century.

The next 30 years in the world will form a more complex international space relations, space monopolized by the superpowers of the era will be changed to a multipolar group of competitive development. Following the United States and the Soviet Union, Europe will gradually form a relatively large space system; secondly, Japan has accelerated the pace of becoming the world's space power, its space investment in the annual increase is very large; there are also a number of developing countries will also be actively involved in space activities. Future international space relations can be summarized in six words: cooperation, competition and confrontation. The joint development of space by all countries of the world should be advocated, but in the real world, cooperation is limited and may be facilitated in certain aspects such as deep space exploration, Earth environment surveillance, construction of the International Space Station and other projects of **** common interest. But there will be no full-blown cooperation in space. For launch services for launch vehicles, projects of commercial interest for multiple application satellites, there will be quite intense competition, and the competition is unlikely to be fair commercial competition, and political interference is bound to occur. And because of the existence of military needs in space, the big powers compete to develop military systems in space, so there is a confrontation lurking between countries.

Because the development of space technology is of great significance in economic, military, scientific and technological aspects, and politically space technology greatly enhances the comprehensive national power of the country and its status in international activities, so the developed countries in the world have put space on the important position of their national development strategy. Because the development of space technology involves global interests, many major issues discussed at the international level are related to it, and various organizations, both official and civil, have been established, and the United Nations has also set up the Outer Space Committee to coordinate space activities among countries and formulate all kinds of international treaties, laws and regulations concerning space activities.

China's space endeavors will continue to move forward. As a developing country with limited financial resources, we belong to the category of low-investment countries in space compared with the world's major spacefaring nations. Therefore, our country can only make contributions in some of the spaceflight fields. In order for our country to have a commensurate position in the world's space field, it should increase its investment. At the same time, China advocates the joint peaceful development and utilization of cosmic space by all countries, with equality and mutual benefit,**** contributing to the interests of all mankind.