Present situation and development trend of oil and gas resources consumption in the world

North America, Asia-Pacific and Europe are the main oil and gas consumption areas in the world. For many years, American oil and gas consumption ranked first in the world. The regions where natural gas consumption is growing rapidly are Africa, Asia-Pacific region and Central and South America. From 65438 to 0999, oil accounted for 40.57% of the world's primary energy consumption, and natural gas accounted for 24. 19%. It is predicted that by 2020, oil and gas production in North America, Europe and the Asia-Pacific region will decline, while oil and gas consumption will increase steadily, so the imbalance between oil and gas supply and demand in the world will be further strengthened. The long-term trend of international oil price will change with the change of oil supply and demand.

First, the world oil and gas resources consumption status and consumption structure

Current situation of oil and natural gas consumption

North America, Asia-Pacific and Europe are the three largest oil consumption regions in the world. According to BP's Review of World Energy Statistics in 2003 in June, the global oil consumption in 2002 was 3.522 billion tons, including 654.38+65 million tons in North America, 265.438+50 million tons in Central and South America, 925 million tons in Europe and Eurasia, 992 million tons in Asia-Pacific region and 207 million tons in the Middle East. The proportion of these regions in the total world consumption is shown in Figure 4. In 2002, the United States was the largest oil consumer in the world, with a consumption of 894 million tons, accounting for 25.4% of the world's total consumption. China's oil consumption is 246 million tons, accounting for 7% of the world's total oil consumption. It is the largest oil consumer and importer after the United States, and China has replaced Japan as the second largest oil consumer in the world.

Figure 4-8 Distribution of Oil Consumption in Various Regions of the World in 2002

Natural gas is the fastest growing energy mineral in the world. In 2002, the global natural gas consumption was 2,535.5 billion cubic meters, 2.8% higher than that of 200 1. See Figure 4-9 for the proportion of world natural gas consumption. North America and the former Soviet Union are the largest natural gas producing and consuming areas in the world, while the United States, the former Soviet Union and Japan are the three major natural gas consuming countries.

Figure 4-9 Distribution of Natural Gas Consumption in Various Regions of the World in 2002

Second, the oil and gas consumption structure

In the composition of global primary energy consumption, oil and gas accounted for 63.8% in 1998, while it was 64.8% in 1999, an increase of 1.57%. Us energy information administration's forecast of the world's primary energy demand in the next 20 years shows that the annual growth rate of the world's total energy demand is 2. 1%, and it will reach 300 barrels per day in 2020, equivalent to 15× 109 tons per year. Among them, the annual growth rate of oil demand is 1.8%, and its proportion in the primary energy consumption structure will drop from 40% in 2000 to 37% in 2020; The annual growth rate of natural gas is 3.3%, and the proportion will rise from 22% to 29%. According to two American scholars (Ekmedes and Olgeni), natural gas will account for more than 40% of the world's primary energy consumption structure in 2020.

Their predictions are based on: first, a large number of fuel cells are commercialized, and now the technology is economically feasible. Secondly, the United States, Canada, Russia, Germany, Britain, Italy, France and Japan of the Group of Eight will take more active actions to increase the use of natural gas. The third is the pressure from environmentalists. Natural gas is cleaner and has higher calorific value than oil. Fourth, the international natural gas market is gradually emerging, and OPEC countries pay more attention to natural gas. Fifth, natural gas resources are extensive, and its utilization is more feasible than oil.

According to the World Energy Statistical Yearbook BP1999 and 1998 of British BP Company, the energy consumption structure of China is: natural gas consumption accounts for 2%, coal consumption accounts for 73%, oil consumption accounts for 23%, and others account for 2%. From 1988 to 1998, China's natural gas production and demand are basically balanced. China's energy consumption structure target in 20 10: natural gas consumption accounts for 4%, coal consumption accounts for 67%, oil consumption accounts for 2 1%, and others account for 8%.

Third, the development trend of oil and gas consumption

World energy consumption is closely related to economic growth. The annual growth rate of world oil consumption in the future 1995-2020 is 1.9%. Compared with the annual GDP growth rate of 3. 1%, its growth elasticity value is 0.6. During the same period, the growth rate of natural gas was 2.6%. In contrast, the growth rate of oil demand is not large, which is basically the same as that of the whole energy demand (Figure 4- 10). Due to the different stages of economic development, the growth of oil demand in different regions is very different (see Table 4-5). From 1995 to 2020, OECD countries show a low growth rate, with an annual growth rate of 0.8%. However, there has been a substantial growth of 3.0% in developing countries. Among them, China has the largest growth, with an average annual growth rate of 4.6%, followed by South Asia with India as the center, with an average annual growth rate of 4.2%, followed by East Asia with 3.6% and Central and South America with 2.5%.

Figure 4- 10 Energy consumption depends on global economic growth

(Future energy consumption, unit: trillion British thermal units)

(According to Information Center of Ministry of Land and Resources, 2000)

Table 4-5 World Crude Oil Demand Table

(According to International Petroleum Economy 200 1.9)

It is estimated that the oil consumption of non-OECD countries will exceed that of OECD countries after 20 10, and the gap will further increase after 2020 (Table 4-6).

Table 4-6 Oil Demand Forecast by Region (unit: million tons of oil equivalent)

(According to International Petroleum Economy 200 1.9)

With the growth of the world economy, the demand for energy, especially oil and natural gas, is also increasing in various regions and countries. With the further aggravation of the imbalance of economic development in different regions and countries, the regional imbalance of oil and gas supply and demand in the world is also further aggravated. The contradiction between the unbalanced distribution of world oil resources and the market is intensifying. In terms of resource distribution, the remaining recoverable oil reserves in the Middle East-North Africa, Central Asia-Russia and North America account for 82.3% of the world, and the recoverable oil resources to be proved account for 72% of the world. Among them, the remaining recoverable oil reserves in the Middle East account for 64% of the world, and the recoverable oil resources to be proved account for 25% of the world. After 20 10, the share of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries in the world oil production will increase from the current 39% to more than 50%, and the world oil supply will be more dependent on the Middle East. It is predicted that in the next decade, the oil production in North America, Europe and the Asia-Pacific region will decline, while the oil consumption will increase steadily, which will inevitably lead to an increase in the gap between oil supply and demand, and the Asia-Pacific region will become the sharpest region in the world. From 1990 to 2000, the oil consumption in the Asia-Pacific region increased by 5.4% annually, much higher than the world average. 1992 surpassed Europe to become the second largest oil consumption area in the world. In 2002, the remaining proven recoverable reserves in the Asia-Pacific region only accounted for 3. 19% of the world total, oil production accounted for1.17% of the world total, and consumption accounted for 28. 1% of the world total. China has surpassed Japan to become the largest oil consumer in the region. In the future, the gap of domestic oil supply in China will continue to increase. It is predicted that by 20 10, China's domestic oil supply will be 654.38+77 million tons ~ 654.38+95 million tons; From 200 1 to 20 10, the average growth rate will be1.08% ~1.81%. However, domestic oil demand is increasing. By the year of 20 10, the domestic demand will be short by about1.1.700 million ~1.420 billion tons, and it needs to be imported from abroad.

According to us energy information administration's International Energy Outlook 2000, with the strengthening of human awareness of environmental protection, natural gas will be the fastest growing primary energy in the next 20 years. It is predicted that the average annual growth rate of world natural gas consumption will reach 3. 1%, the world natural gas consumption will reach 3.49 trillion cubic meters in 20 10 and 4.72 trillion cubic meters in 2020 (Liu Zengjie, 2020).

China natural gas will enter a new development period in 2 1 century. In 2002, China's natural gas consumption reached 3065438+ billion cubic meters, accounting for 1.2% of the world's consumption. The consumption of natural gas in the Asia-Pacific region is second only to Japan and Indonesia. China's consumption of natural gas will continue to increase in the future, because it will help to improve China's energy structure and ease the pressure of oil supply.