Multiple technology routes synergize and progress Industry experts **** talk about the development trend of China's auto industry

(Beijing) On April 12, "Fusion-***Birth--China's Automotive Development Trend Forum" organized by Huanqiu Automotive Group was held in Beijing. On the scene of the event, Wu Yingqiu, Chairman and CEO of Huanqiu Automotive Group, Li Daokui, President of the Institute of Chinese Economic Thought and Practice at Tsinghua University, Xu Changming, Deputy Director of the State Information Center, Guan Qingyou, a famous economist and President of the Ruyi Institute of Financial Research, Cui Dongshu, Secretary General of the National Passenger Vehicle Market Information Association, Zhou Wei, Director of the New Energy Vehicle Policy Research Department of the China Automotive Industry Corporation, Mei Xinyu, researcher of the Institute of International Trade and Economic Cooperation of the Ministry of Commerce, and many others Researchers such as Mei Xinyu, a number of experts and scholars, around the automotive technology development trends to start a heated discussion.

Currently, China's automotive industry is in an important stage of energy, technology and product innovation, and in the new energy continues to push the depth of the node, the traditional fuel as well as the pure electric outside the technological routes, and the future of the technical route in the end how to integrate **** into the industry inside and outside the industry is highly concerned about the subject.

In particular, the price cuts triggered by Wuhan, Hubei Province in 2023 have objectively pushed up ordinary consumers' expectations of the value of automobile consumption, and even the phenomenon of "waiting to buy" has emerged. How to find the driving force of technological development in the intricate changes in the market has also become a subject of concern to the outside world.

Wu Yingqiu, Chairman and CEO of Huanqiu Automotive Group

In this regard, Wu Yingqiu, Chairman and CEO of Huanqiu Automotive Group, suggested that the introduction of the policy must listen to the consumers, and it is not a policy to deprive consumers of diversified needs. Banning combustion is a trend, it is one aspect of the problem, but the diversified needs of consumers is another aspect of the problem. This requires more scientific management and comprehensive co-ordination, including industrial layout, co-ordination, timing and many other aspects.

"Oil and electricity" short-term will **** exist

In order to respond to global climate change, to promote the strategic initiative of green development, automotive in the product side of the continuous promotion of new energy, clean energy and low-carbon fuel models. Especially in recent years, the world's automotive industry began to electrify the transition, the new energy vehicle product promotion and technology upgrades continue to accelerate the pace.

While the growth of new energy vehicles is changing the pattern of development of automobiles, the industry is gradually moving from traditional fuel vehicles to a new situation where fuel power, hybrids and purely electric vehicles dominate. But this does not mean that in the coming period of time, traditional fuel vehicles can be completely replaced by new energy vehicles.

From the point of view of automobile development, fuel cars have gone through the course of more than a hundred years so far, through the heavy test of the market, no matter the product technology or volume scale are relatively mature. And the oil car is a broad concept, including oil cars, alcohol gasoline, synthetic fuels, HEV, hydrogen power, etc., can rely on different technologies to form effective competitiveness in different market segments.

Of course, at a time of rising oil prices, traditional fuel vehicles must also make changes to improve cost-effectiveness based on technological upgrades. From the point of view of energy resources, China's dependence on oil imports is now close to 72%, in order to reduce automobile consumption of oil, and now gradually turn to the field of renewable energy, for the automobile industry is also a kind of electrification development. But if all electrification, that for lithium, cobalt and other rare metal resources is another challenge. In this regard, a related organization survey shows that when synthetic fuels, clean fuels and other ways **** with the support of the automotive industry development, and the scale of 500 to 600 million vehicles, which is the most secure for the operation of the resources.

Relevant statistics show that China's new energy vehicles in the past two years of rapid development, 2020 sales of only 1.27 million units, 2021 will reach 3.27 million units, 2022 to achieve 6.25 million units. Two years of time up 5 million units. In terms of penetration, new energy vehicle penetration rate last year was 27.6%, but just over 5% in 2020, up 20 percentage points between two years, new energy and cars show rapid growth trend.

While the subsidies for new energy vehicles are withdrawn this year, but with the leading companies have the ability to maintain price stability, the richness of the electric car use scenarios and the gradual deepening of consumer awareness of new energy vehicles, electric vehicles will also have a relatively rapid development.

At the same time, the market must also recognize that, based on the product characteristics of pure electric vehicles, low temperatures, high temperature and other areas of consumers can not be used for long periods of time, and pure electric vehicles need to be a perfect charging equipment as a prerequisite, which makes the application of the scene has been limited. With all these limitations, it is directly determined that pure electric vehicles cannot enter into various regions of China in the future like fuel vehicles. Even with the goal of achieving carbon neutrality, pure electric vehicles will certainly not completely dominate the Chinese auto market.

Judging the relationship between fuel cars and electric vehicles from an objective point of view is more of a technological path of competition, and who will ultimately be left behind depends on who walks faster. But from the development stage of the next five or even ten years, China's auto market will continue to show fuel and electric ***exist*** the development of the state, which is an inevitable trend.

Automotive industry needs a variety of technical routes to integrate development

Carbon neutrality is the ultimate goal of mankind, but for the development of the automotive industry, fuel and new energy vehicles is not an "either/or" selection question. In different stages of development of the automobile industry, as well as in different market environments and application scenarios, the existence value and scale of traditional fuel vehicles and pure electric vehicles are different, and even more irreplaceable.

Li Daokui, director of the Institute of Chinese Economic Thought and Practice at Tsinghua University

In China's economic development, the automobile industry is the top pillar of consumption, and the traditional automobile plays a decisive role in promoting automobile consumption, not only to vigorously promote the development of new energy vehicles, but also to take into account the orderly development of traditional fuel vehicles. As Li Daokui said, China's economic development level will increase, the people's lifestyle is still pursuing diversification, but also poetry and faraway places, but also driving far away. At any time, China's policy makers still respect the market technology and the people's will, which requires automotive technology to take the road of intermingled ****sheng development.

Xu Changming, deputy director of the National Information Center

Xu Changming said in his speech, oil cars and trolley cars need not replace each other, electric cars have the advantage of electric cars, fuel cars have the advantage of fuel cars, both in the foreseeable future there is a large market space. The future automotive market must be a variety of energy modes coexist, and new energy vehicles and oil vehicles traditional car is a competitive relationship, is **** fusion relationship.

According to the country's development plan, it is expected to achieve the goal of peak carbon emissions by 2030, and as for the specific timetable for the retirement of fuel vehicles, it is still in the research stage, which means that the country's expectations for the exit of fuel vehicles are relatively conservative.

Famous economist and director of the Ruyi Institute of Financial Research, Guan Qingyou

To this end, Guan Qingyou's point of view is to let the market really return to the market, so that the market plays a fundamental role in the allocation of resources. At present, many first and second tier consumers have accepted to buy, practical pure electric vehicles, but there is still a large portion of automobile users stand in line with the fuel car. In fact, the development of automobile routes, technology upgrades should be based on market changes, consumer demand and change. Of course, car companies do not need to be overly anxious, whether it is overcapacity or sales model, everything is in accordance with the industry trend changes in the smooth development.

Cui Dongshu, secretary-general of the National Passenger Vehicle Market Information Association

Cui Dongshu expressed similar views in the on-site salon activities, he believes that it is not appropriate to sing the praises of the fuel car, and from the point of view of consumer demand, in fact, all types of models have their own use of the scene. Each user's needs are different, in this case everyone has their own reasonable choice. Especially for ordinary consumers, their use of the scene is more volatile, long and short distances, fuel car is a more appropriate choice.

Zhou Wei, Director of New Energy Vehicle Policy Research Department of China Automotive Industry Research Center (CAIRRC), said, "Whether it's a fuel vehicle or a purely electric vehicle, it will play an important role in the future of travel." Zhou Wei proposed, based on the development of the automobile industry, the existence and promotion of fuel vehicles is to ensure the stability of the economy, the market forward, so it can not limit the development of the traditional industry, so that the ups and downs. The industry should promote the traditional internal combustion engine industry and new energy vehicles both mutually empowering, synergistic and form a stable pattern of industrial development.

Mei Xinyu, a researcher at the Institute of International Trade and Economic Cooperation of the Ministry of Commerce

"The parallel development of fuel vehicles and electric vehicles is not only conducive to the stable development of the consumer economy, but also conducive to the practicality of diversifying the country's energy sources to ensure energy security". Mei Xinyu pointed out that the rise of the new energy vehicle industry is firstly to enhance China's energy security and reduce the use of oil in traditional fuel vehicles. But when the development of new energy vehicles to a certain point, if we want to continue to enhance energy security through the inhibition of traditional automobile consumption, we have to pay the price of the decline in the efficiency of the entire national economy, which is not desirable.

Car companies should make a rational choice

Currently, the fuel car is the mainstream of automobile consumption, new energy vehicles is the trend of the future, in the process of automotive energy power disruptive changes in the process, consumers are faced with new technologies, new products, and the traditional automotive companies need to stand in the pure electric vehicles, fuel cars, hybrid crossroads, to make accurate judgments, accept and embrace a series of challenges. a series of challenges.

At this year's forum, Huanqiu Automotive Group Editor-in-Chief Mr. Su Yunong invited Mr. Guan Qingyou, Mr. Cui Dongshu, Mr. Zhou Wei, and Mr. Mei Xinyu to have a salon discussion on the future automotive technology route. At the salon site, experts expressed their views and showed their prediction on the future development trend of automobile. The experts agreed that the future of the automobile can not be focused on a certain technology route, and should be open and inclusive of a pluralistic attitude.

The electrification of traditional car companies is like? "Elephant turn", when the automotive power to face a new choice, the car company's approach is not just "abandon it" "choose it" so simple, but in the two options for trade-offs, in a stable way to complete the transition between the two options The first step is to make the transition between the two choices in a stable way.

In fact, for Volkswagen, Toyota, General Motors and other traditional fuel car companies, new energy vehicles in the electrification of the initial period can not create profits for the car companies, the launch of pure electric vehicles need to invest a lot of research and development costs, in the product update at the same time, the traditional car companies in the short term may also be faced with the pressure from the production, equipment, etc., which all need to be carried out by the transition of fuel vehicles and electric vehicles.

In China's auto market, the traditional fuel-vehicle brands are a huge team, and if they "pull out" rashly, it will not only have an immeasurable impact on their own operations, but also on the market development, which will inevitably produce market vacancies.

Traditional car companies want to smoothly "pull out" from the fuel stage, which determines them in a long period of time in the "two legs" to walk. On the one hand, the need for traditional car companies in technology, products, services, a series of layout, and continue to meet the different categories of consumers' electrified travel needs. At the same time, they also need to continue to invest in fuel vehicles, continue to promote the development of the fuel vehicle market.

If electrification is the ultimate goal of the automotive industry, then before that, traditional fuel vehicles and electric vehicles will be in a long period of time in the *** fusion *** birth stage. At this time the internal combustion engine posture is not infinite decay, but to other forms of revitalization. Multi-energy era, the need for new energy vehicles and traditional fuel vehicles synergistic development, and more need them *** together to promote the overall scale of improvement.

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