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Recently, the operation crisis of Wall Street investment banks has triggered psychological turmoil in global financial markets, the real economy and even people. China's trade and financial investment are closely related to the world, which makes us feel the huge impact of the bankruptcy frenzy on Wall Street across the ocean. China's economy has been moving forward in a difficult environment for more than half a year. What storms will it encounter next? How to deal with it?

The central government clearly put forward that maintaining steady and rapid economic development and controlling excessive price increases are the main tasks of macroeconomic regulation and control. Here are some views on how to accurately understand the central spirit and deal with the uncertainty of the world economy.

Grasp two key data of China's economic situation

The impact of the financial turmoil on Wall Street in the United States on China's economy is mainly the change in the valuation of its financial products, which leads to the decline in the investment price of financial institutions in China; Indirectly, the financial pressure of the United States leads to the slowdown of domestic and international economy and the decrease of consumption, which in turn leads to the decline of China's trade with the United States and Europe. The effect of indirect influence is obviously greater than that of direct influence. The reason is that at present, the external demand-oriented economy accounts for a large proportion of China's total GDP. Once it declines, the gap needs to be made up by the other two wheels that promote economic growth-domestic consumption and investment.

The central government clearly proposed to maintain steady and rapid economic development. According to the economic data of China in the first half of 2008 released by the National Bureau of Statistics, the GDP increased by 10.4%, and the growth rate dropped by10.8 percentage points year-on-year. CPI rose by 7.9% year-on-year, and the increase in June was 7. 1%, down 0.2% from the previous month. These are two key indicators of China's economy that have attracted the most attention at home and abroad for some time. The two major tasks put forward by the central government, namely, maintaining steady and rapid economic growth and curbing inflation, are also reflected in these two indicators. Judging from these two indicators, our economic fundamentals are positive at present, which is in line with the expected goals of macro-control.

There are still many difficulties. In the second half of the year, there are many variables in external demand, domestic consumption and investment. First, affected by the still depressed international economic environment, foreign trade exports will still show a cooling trend in the second half of the year; Second, the real income of residents continues to decline, and the consumption hotspots such as housing and automobiles have cooled down, which may lead to a slowdown in the actual growth rate of consumption; Third, the decline in corporate efficiency and cooling demand will change social investment expectations, and the willingness of enterprises to invest spontaneously will decline, which may affect their growth potential. Although these unfavorable factors are still controllable on the whole, the current economic development situation is more complicated, and some uncertain factors will make new changes in the economic trend, which needs close attention.

First of all, we should pay attention to the origin and development trend of current excess liquidity. Beijing Daily reported not long ago that China's foreign exchange reserves reached 1.68 trillion US dollars in the first quarter of this year. Experts predict that foreign exchange reserves are expected to exceed $2 trillion by the end of this year. Judging from the growth trend of foreign exchange reserves in recent years, foreign reserves are doubling every year. Some research institutions said that the open market operations carried out by the central bank offset most of the foreign exchange inflows. This shows that the "excess liquidity" caused by the excessive growth of foreign exchange reserves is still a difficult problem.

According to the report, if China sells a pair of socks worth 1 USD to the United States, 1 USD will flow into China. The exporter's foreign exchange bank buys 1 USD and sells it to the central bank as a foreign exchange reserve, and the exporter gets RMB at the exchange rate. The RMB generated by hedging operation is the new currency of the central bank, which may lead to inflation. The money can be held as a deposit or cash. The central bank controls liquidity by adjusting the deposit reserve ratio and credit policy. Researchers believe that the current deposit reserve ratio has been pushed to a historical peak, and monetary policy is in an embarrassing position in curbing inflation. According to China's management measures, foreign exchange needs to be settled and sold in RMB. In the first half of this year, the trade surplus was $99 billion, personal net foreign exchange settlement was $53.6 billion, and foreign direct investment capital settlement was $610.30 billion. A large number of foreign exchange settlements have produced liquidity in the banking system. For every $30 billion of foreign exchange purchased, it is necessary to raise the deposit reserve by 0.5 percentage point to hedge the spit-out liquidity.

The focus of recent discussions has returned to raising interest rates, but raising interest rates cannot fundamentally solve the "excess liquidity" caused by the excessive growth of foreign exchange reserves, and it will still fall into a vicious circle of "buying foreign currency from the market and then putting RMB into the market". Therefore, it is very important to solve the "excess liquidity" caused by this channel. This analysis has important reference value for grasping the macro-policy regulation in China. Judging from some newly released figures, there is still a lot of liquidity at present. How to solve this problem requires countermeasures and suggestions. Including the long-standing foreign trade policy of "encouraging exports and restricting imports" and the policy of "lenient entry and strict exit", whether it needs to be adjusted and how to adjust it is the focus of investigation.

Judging from the current economic reports, we can correctly grasp the following relations: First, we must accurately grasp the relationship between economic difficulties and the ability of our party and government to solve difficulties. At the press conference after the two sessions this year, the Prime Minister said that this year is likely to be the "most difficult year". In his recent speech at the seminar on in-depth study and practice in Scientific Outlook on Development, the Prime Minister said that a series of targeted control measures taken in time this year are receiving positive results.

The next step depends on whether the overall situation of the world economy is accurately grasped, whether the economic policies are introduced in time and whether the implementation is in place. Among them, we should correctly look at the relationship between the influence of international economic factors and domestic blocking mechanism. At present, international factors are complex and changeable. High oil and food prices have caused many indicators of the world economy to rush to historical highs, which is still the biggest uncertain factor in the world. As far as the international situation is concerned, some truths cannot be explained by common sense. The United States should reduce the pressure on oil supply by using grain to make ethanol, but instead of doing so, it pushed up oil prices and food prices. Judging from the pressure of dealing with high oil prices and high food prices, the measures taken by China are effective, and the promotion of food prices and oil prices to domestic prices is basically controllable so far. Among them, the setting of some barriers between domestic and international shows that the necessary administrative intervention and the implementation of fiscal policy are effective.

As Premier Wen said, we have a vast domestic market, abundant capital, a labor force with constantly improving quality, a material and institutional foundation for 30 years of reform and opening up, and years of experience in coping with risks. We are fully confident and capable of consolidating the good momentum of economic development.

Observe specific economic problems from the overall situation

Economic reports have their own special laws, but different economic phenomena are highly correlated, which will lead to many social problems, and social problems often lead to political problems. It is difficult to grasp the current economic reports, and the key lies in how to grasp the social and political issues related to the economy. Its core is to pay attention to firmly establish the consciousness of social stability. When looking at some economic phenomena, we must have a view of paying attention to society and stressing politics. In a word, it is the overall situation.

Such as the property market. Some manuscripts applauded the decline of the property market from the perspective of safeguarding the interests of consumers. This makes sense in one way. But this needs to be considered from two angles: first, from the current macroeconomic situation, macro-control is to prevent ups and downs. It is not good to rise too fast, and it is not the purpose to fall too fast. In particular, man-made measures have led to decline, which is not what we want to see. Second, from the perspective of maintaining social and economic stability, the property market itself is a link in the economic cycle. We should pay attention to protecting the interests of consumers and the enthusiasm of producers. One end of real estate is investment, the other end is consumption, and the industrial chain is very long, accounting for about 20% of fixed assets investment for a long time. Especially as a capital-intensive industry, it is closely related to finance. If the decline continues due to human factors, banks will have bad debts, which will greatly undermine economic stability. On the other hand, if there is a way to keep the property market from falling too fast, which is a good way to maintain social and economic stability, it should be actively used. This determines the need to have a global perspective when reporting on the regulation of the property market.

This economic and social outlook not only appears in the property market. In the first two years, because the relevant departments did not notice the decline of producers' enthusiasm and did not take timely measures in pork production, the price of meat eventually rose, which fired the first shot of this round of agricultural product inflation. This lesson is worth learning. At present, there are two situations that must be focused on: First, the situation of the chicken industry. The supply of chicken, including eggs, is more prominent than that of pork, because the consumption of meat is replaceable, that is, chickens, ducks and fish are used instead, but people's consumption depends more on eggs, and the supply of eggs is definitely no problem. Second, the price of pork has declined at present, so we should pay attention not to drop too much. The sharp drop in meat prices will inevitably lead to a new round of enthusiasm for raising pigs. It is necessary to pay close attention to relevant market conditions and report them in time.

The report suggests that a large number of young birds have been slaughtered recently in Yulin, a southern breeding base in Guangxi. Breeding enterprises in these places slaughter a large number of young birds because of the pressure of increasing costs and sharp decline in sales. May-June was supposed to be the peak season for poultry sales, but this year the wholesale price of live chickens fell instead of rising, and the slaughter price of live chickens dropped from11-/3 yuan per catty to 6.5 yuan in 6.8 yuan. According to the breeding cost, 7.5 yuan can't lose money if it is more than one kilogram; Since the second half of last year, the price of corn and soybean meal has increased by 50%, reaching 100%. In this case, we should be vigilant enough to prevent the mistake of pork falling and rising again.

Major adjustments in international economic policies can often be regarded as international political reports. The United States, in particular, has a systematic study and path choice in grasping the national strategy. To observe and study the economic problems of the United States and even the world, we must look at the problems from the perspective of international politics. The recent continuous depreciation of the US dollar cannot be simply analyzed from the monetary phenomenon, but we should study the "national policy" of the United States to resolve this round of economic difficulties.

According to the report, the research on monetary issues in the United States is still going on, and the high oil price has also forced the American rulers to actively face the upward trend of oil prices. President Bush finally announced that he would lift the administrative ban on drilling offshore oil wells. This incident, in the context of rising oil prices, shows the nervousness of Americans, which leads them to change their strategic view of oil resources. If left unchecked, high oil prices will inevitably lead to the collapse of the financial system, which will bring disorder to the global economic structure. The oil price hearing held by the US Congress is an important window to observe the adjustment of the US national strategy.

Many economic problems in the world also need to be grasped. At present, the diplomatic activities of state leaders are basically centered on economic issues. We should pay special attention to some important measures taken by Comrade Hu Jintao in the recent G-8 dialogue. We can clearly see that emerging powers, also known as developing powers, are having a significant and far-reaching impact on international relations and the world pattern. For example, the coordination mechanisms of China, Indian, Pakistani, South African and Mexican countries, as well as the BRIC countries, are playing an increasingly important role in international affairs. This trend is generally beneficial to me. Moreover, the three major problems of food, energy and finance, which are heating up at the same time in the current overall situation of the world, also depend on the active participation and contribution of developing countries to a great extent, so that they can be finally solved. After food security has become a new global focus, developed countries have made gestures and shifted pressure, blaming the current rise in food prices on the development of emerging powers, speculating on the "responsibility theory of developing powers" and demanding that developing countries assume more responsibilities. At present and in the future, it is necessary to refute the hype of the western media in a targeted way, and fully report how China responds to the world food security and its contribution to the world food security. Some reports and plans can be organized around these situations. /kloc-for 0/2 years, China has been the country that has suffered the most anti-dumping investigations in the world. We are under pressure in international trade, which is not only a major economic issue, but also a major political issue. According to the current complicated situation, reporting should play a role, especially foreign reporting should play a unique role. The key point is to widely publicize "China's theory of economic opportunities" and clearly explain the benefits and opportunities brought by China's development to the world, including the opportunities brought by the investment activities of China's "going global" enterprises to local employment and social development. As a model, we should strengthen publicity. Our own national consciousness based on national interests should be the main theme of leading economic reports.

Tip: In the first quarter of this year, there were as many as 17 anti-dumping and countervailing investigations against our products worldwide. The problem of foreign trade friction is developing towards normalization. Moreover, the economic and trade friction between developed and developing countries is developing, and the high-end industries in developed countries are beginning to feel the competitive pressure of coming to themselves; Developing countries think that the influence of our products on their low-end industries is increasing. Some politicians have made a big fuss about China's economic and trade issues, blaming me for the depression and unemployment of some domestic industries caused by various factors. RMB appreciation, financial and insurance liberalization, environmental protection standards and sovereign wealth funds have all become the focus of speculation.

Study on Economic Fluctuation from a Strategic Perspective

The economy is always fluctuating. One of the main points of economic news reports is how to capture these fluctuations keenly. This is a basic course that must be done well in the face of economic hotspots, difficulties and focus issues. The fluctuation of economic operation also determines that the general trend is always optimistic. Compared with the opportunities faced, the difficulties encountered in the current economy have more hopes than difficulties and opportunities than challenges. Therefore, we should attach importance to the macro-confidence analysis in the economic hotspot reports, and clearly analyze all kinds of supporting factors that China's economy can maintain sustainable development for 20 years.

This conclusion is actually not difficult to analyze. The characteristics of China people as labor force and the stage of "demographic dividend" determine that the economic cost is low all over the world; The undervaluation of RMB and the worldwide commodity exchange, in terms of global demand and supply, mean that China people are generally self-sufficient in most resources and surplus in most commodities, which determines that our surplus will not be less than the deficit; The continuous reform and improvement of the system, the continuous improvement of the level of science and technology, and the support of hard power and soft power will inevitably promote or promote economic development. It can be asserted that as long as there are no major wars and overall serious natural disasters, the most industrious citizens will surely become the richest citizens. This process should take 20 to 50 years.

How to concretely analyze how to see the confidence in difficulties from the economic hotspots that the society is generally concerned about? For example, at present, the whole society is generally concerned about how to accurately grasp the relationship between rhythm and other specific operational levels in the process of grasping the macro policy of "tight monetary policy". Adhering to the "tight monetary policy" for macro-control does not mean that the financing channels of small and medium-sized enterprises must be interrupted. The plight of small and medium-sized enterprises has recently attracted attention from all walks of life, and the central government clearly supports the credit policy of small and medium-sized enterprises. When analyzing the current economic situation, we often analyze the reasons from the results; In fact, it is not difficult to find some inaction mentality and simplified practices by restoring the workflow of some functional departments. If this mentality and practice are reflected through typical cases and reports, it will be of great reference value to decision-making. The measures recently announced by the central bank to reduce the "double rate" are obviously to support small and medium-sized enterprises. The implementation of these policies in various places also needs close attention.

According to the report, at present, enterprises in many parts of the country are facing many difficulties such as export tax rebate, rising exchange rate and rising costs. Coupled with financing difficulties, a large number of small and medium-sized enterprises closed down, stopped production and closed down. Small and medium-sized enterprises provide 75% employment opportunities for the urban labor force in China. If a large number of small and medium-sized enterprises close down, it will be difficult to achieve the goal of increasing employment by 10 million people a year. If this situation spreads further, it will inevitably lead to economic stagflation, which will bring heavy employment pressure, especially a large number of employed people are farmers, which will inevitably lead to the interruption of farmers' income-increasing channels. In the face of these problems, it should be clear that in the process of implementing the central policy, if we simply deal with it in a "one size fits all" way, the final result will inevitably be runaway inflation and economic injury. The key is to find out the cause of this inflation and prescribe the right medicine.

For another example, the current stock market downturn, from the highest point to the current level, is obviously abnormal. The main reason is that many people don't know how to grasp the relationship between the current stock market and economic fundamentals. The explanation now is that the situation that the split share structure was inconsistent with the interests of large and small shareholders at that time was not optimistic, so it was in a long-term downturn. At present, investors are generally depressed. The key reason is the lack of confidence, and the main reason for the lack of confidence is that they are not clear about the basic trend of China's economy and are seriously worried about the subprime mortgage crisis and China's macroeconomic prospects. In fact, China's overall economic fundamentals have not changed much. Foreign investors are optimistic about the China market, which is the basis for the stable and healthy development of China's economy. As long as we have such an understanding of the macro trend, some specific factors that lead to the stock market decline will naturally be solved.

According to the report, on the issue of "size reduction", the interests of large and small shareholders have tended to be consistent after the share reform. The major shareholder's reduction is not based on its original holding cost, but, like the retail investors, they will reduce their holdings more when they judge that the market prospect is not good, and sell them when the money is tight and the liquidity is insufficient. According to the investigation of China Securities Regulatory Commission, the "non-size" has pressure on the market, but it is not the main factor of fluctuation. In the future, we should further standardize the "non-size", increase the transparency of reduction, pay more attention to stabilizing market expectations, and guide the "non-size" to reduce its shares when asset prices are high.

Some people question that "listed companies in China don't pay dividends to investors", and many solutions have been put forward in the market. However, according to the law that the real and reasonable price of assets can be found in the stock market, in an emerging capital market like ours, it is sometimes better to put dividends directly into the stock price of listed companies to amplify the price. For example, a profit of 5 cents per share is 1 yuan at a price-earnings ratio of 20 times. Some investors believe that it is more cost-effective to add the 5 cents to the stock price according to the price-earnings ratio to become 1 yuan money than to distribute it in cash. Of course, this judgment can only be made on the premise that China's macro-economy is basically good.

Judging the sustainable development of China's economy is an inevitable trend, which does not mean denying the existence of a series of problems to be solved urgently.

Judging from the factors that plague the domestic economy at present, some of them belong to the immediate and long-term problems that must be studied and paid attention to, that is, the interweaving of "near worries" and "far worries". We should have a long-term vision to study the solutions of economic strategic resources. Comrade Zheng Xinli, deputy director of the Policy Research Office of the CPC Central Committee, recently said that several scarce resources that are highly dependent on imports are important and potential factors that cause price fluctuations in the domestic market. They are oil, edible oil, rice, and short-term metal deposits including iron ore, alumina and copper ore. We can focus on these resources and do some systematic research from the perspective of national strategy. In addition to paying attention to macroeconomic policies, we should also pay attention to technological progress, widely understand various suggestions and make valuable reports for decision-making.

Tip: 1. Oil: China will import10.80 billion tons of oil this year, and the high oil price has become a heavy burden on the national economy. According to China's resource conditions, we must get rid of dependence on oil and work hard on substitution. Coal-to-oil is a strategic measure suitable for China's national conditions. According to the experimental results, if the price of coal is calculated by 500 yuan per ton, its cost can be controlled below $50 per barrel of imported oil, which is highly competitive. If successful, China's coal, water resources and traffic conditions should be adjusted as a whole. According to the experience of developing biofuels in the United States and Brazil, combined with China's national conditions, we should vigorously develop non-food bioenergy, including planting refined fuels such as Jatropha curcas and cassava. Electric vehicles and hybrid electric vehicles should be the direction of structural adjustment.

2. Edible oil: Last year, China imported 29.5 million tons of soybeans, which is equivalent to 5.9 million tons of imported edible oil, and 8.38 million tons of direct imports, totaling 6.5438+0428 million tons, accounting for 62% of China's edible oil consumption. In the long run, solving the problem of edible oil supply based on domestic demand is an important strategic need to maintain economic security, just like grain. How to increase the domestic edible oil supply without competing with grain, we should find ways to tap the barren hills and wasteland resources and expand various high-oil crops. For example, tea oil trees yield 75 kilograms of tea oil per mu, which is superior to olive oil in quality and suitable for large-scale planting in the south of the Yangtze River. A large number of fruits, such as cherries, are planted in the mountainous areas of Wenchuan earthquake, which puts great pressure on transportation and preservation. If we switch to suitable high-oil plants after demonstration, our ability to resist market risks will be much stronger.

3. Rice: With the decrease of paddy fields and the increase of consumption in China, it is urgent to expand rice planting area and increase yield. It is also a feasible choice to establish overseas rice production bases in Southeast Asia and other places by using China's planting technology.

4. Pigs: It is increasingly difficult to resist market risks by relying on farmers' retail pig raising mode, and large-scale pig raising should be the policy direction of strong support.

5. The metal minerals in short supply include iron ore, alumina and copper mine. At present, China has a large amount of foreign exchange reserves, so how to make full use of various channels to participate in the control and joint development of foreign resources should be a top priority.

Judging from the main contradiction between global resources and human development, the pressure of resources must be faced by the whole world. Although the oil price in new york market has recently dropped after breaking through $0/45 per barrel, it is still hovering at a high level, which has attracted much attention at home and abroad. How to alleviate the worries about high oil prices and the factors that push up oil prices to a certain extent can only be found by developing new energy sources. As far as China is concerned, the national "Eleventh Five-Year Plan" has taken new energy as a key industry development. The 11th Five-Year Plan clearly states: "Accelerate the development of renewable energy such as wind energy, solar energy and biomass energy." The Renewable Energy Law encourages capital to enter new energy and renewable energy industries. The National Development and Reform Commission's Medium-and Long-term Development Plan for Renewable Energy further clarified the medium-and long-term specific development goals of renewable energy in China. Under the policy inclination, the industrialization scale of new energy and renewable energy such as solar energy, wind energy, biomass energy and fuel cells will continue to expand, and the new energy industry will show a high-speed growth trend. Recently, the Ministry of Agriculture explicitly requested in the "Three Definitions" plan approved by the State Council that the Ministry of Agriculture should strengthen the guidance service, supervision and management of agricultural biomass industry, and promote the rational allocation of agricultural resources and the sustainable development of agriculture.

The report suggests that giant grass and elephant grass should be planted as pilot plants for power generation in Lanxi City, Zhejiang Province, and the power generation of one mu of giant grass can be equivalent to 4 tons of coal. Hubei Province will build 6 million mu of woody biomass energy forest base in five years, and the main tree species are Sapium sebiferum, Tung oil tree and Robinia pseudoacacia. , thus transforming barren hills, slopes and low-yield forests. , the prospect is broad. Yunnan also proposed to build a woody oil base. These cutting-edge practices deserve in-depth investigation. From the overall situation of the country, the research report completed by Professor Lin Hu of China Agricultural University shows that the currently unused grassland is one of the most important reserve land resources in China. If bioethanol energy plants are planted on 3.6 million hectares of grassland suitable for planting, the potential bioethanol output will reach 1 1.5 million tons per year, which can replace the current gasoline consumption 1.5. Figures from the Ministry of Land and Resources and the State Forestry Administration show that there are more than 50 million hectares of firewood forest, woody oil forest and shrub forest in China.

Special attention should be paid to the attempt to develop biofuel raw material cultivation in various places to cope with the world energy situation. At present, there are roughly three ways: one is to use sweet sorghum, sugarcane, cassava and other non-food energy crops to produce fuel methanol and ethanol instead of gasoline; Secondly, biodiesel is made from oil crops such as soybean and rapeseed, oil-bearing fruits such as oil palm and Pistacia chinensis, oil-bearing aquatic plants such as engineering microalgae, animal fat, waste oil from restaurants and so on. The third is to use biomass to generate electricity, biogas engineering and biomass solid molding fuel. The total area of woody oil-bearing trees in China is more than 6 million hectares, and the fruit yield is more than 4 million tons. Except for a small amount of development, food and industrial use, most of them are in a barren state. If intensively used, it can be converted into target bio-fuel oil. For these problems, the research of related industries is not sufficient, and we can pay attention to them in the recent investigation and reporting planning in combination with the recent forest right system reform implemented by the state. (Author: Wu Jincai)

According to the media, there may be a new wave of SME closures in China in the next two months. People's Daily Online-International Finance News will be printed at 00:50 on February 5, 2009. There may be a wave of small and medium-sized enterprises closing down in the next two months.

According to the tradition in rural China, the Spring Festival lasts until the 15th day of the first month. However, the chill of the financial turmoil has blown to every corner of China, and the tradition of the New Year has to be changed.

The "Everyday Workplace" located in Shanghai Huxi Workers' Cultural Palace is open every day during the Spring Festival. Xiao Zhang, a young man from rural Hubei, came here to look for a job on the third day of the New Year. He worked in a factory near Guangzhou last year and was laid off at the end of the year. "Now the employment situation is so tight that I am afraid I can't find a job if I come out late." His eyes were full of anxiety.

There are more than 10 million people waiting for job opportunities like Xiao Zhang. According to reports, Chen Xiwen, director of the Office of the Central Leading Group for Rural Work, said recently that the total number of migrant workers who left their hometowns for urban employment in 2008 was about 65.438+300 million, and the survey showed that 654.38+05.3% of them had been unemployed or had not found a job and returned home. This year, 25 million migrant workers are looking for job opportunities.

"My uncle and a dozen relatives, who used to work in Guangzhou like me, all quit their jobs and plan to visit Shanghai in a few days." Xiao Zhang said.

Can migrant workers who are unemployed in the Pearl River Delta find jobs in the Yangtze River Delta? Can the employment security measures introduced by local governments in the Yangtze River Delta help them?

The shortage of 20 million has turned into unemployment of 25 million.

Last March, the reporter interviewed Liu Kaiming, director of Shenzhen Institute of Contemporary Social Observation, on the topic of "Serious shortage of manufacturing workers in China". Yesterday, in an interview, he once again indicated that "before September last year, many domestic manufacturing enterprises were short of jobs, and the total demand was between 6.5438+0.5 million and 20 million."

Half a year has not passed, from a shortage of 20 million workers to an unemployment of 25 million workers. Why is the contrast so amazing?

"The main reason is that most of these laid-off enterprises are labor-intensive and export-oriented enterprises, relying on foreign markets. After the order is reduced, layoffs and closures often become the only choice for such enterprises. " Liu Kaiming said. The survey data also proves this point. According to relevant reports, since July last year, about 5,000 small and medium-sized enterprises operated by Hong Kong businessmen have closed down in the Mainland.

It shouldn't have been so bad. "In fact, after 10 last year, although some enterprises closed down, some enterprises were still short of people at that time. However, due to the decrease in income, many workers quit their jobs and returned to their hometowns ahead of schedule. After the New Year, when I want to find a job now, the situation is worse than before. " Liu Kaiming said.

In the next two months, there may be a new wave of SME closures in China. According to American media reports, in recent months, orders in Europe and America have decreased by 1/3 to 1/2 on average. In the next month or two, at least 3,000 factories in China will face closure. Liu Dabang, president of the Hong Kong Small and Medium Enterprises Association, estimates that about 40% of Hong Kong businessmen's factories in the Mainland will be delayed. The Hong Kong Federation of Small and Medium Enterprises also confirmed that two factories with more than 65,438+0,000 employees in Dongguan, Guangdong Province will postpone the start date to the end of March.

It is not easy to find a job in the Yangtze River Delta.

Can Xiao Zhang and his relatives find jobs near Shanghai? In fact, the employment situation in Shanghai is not optimistic.

There are many small and medium-sized enterprises in dachang town, Baoshan District. A carton factory owner recently complained in a small talk that business was difficult and planned to reduce the original 22 workers to seven. There is also a hardware enterprise supporting Baosteel's steel mills. Only three of the original 15 workers went to work, and it is doubtful whether the remaining workers can keep their jobs.

According to the reporter's understanding, high-tech enterprises in the Yangtze River Delta region also have layoffs. TSMC and Foxconn laid off large-scale employees in their factories in northern Jiangsu. "There may be more job opportunities in Shanghai and southern Jiangsu, and there are relatively few in northern Jiangsu and Zhejiang." Liu Kaiming said.

"Relatively speaking, the economic situation in the Yangtze River Delta may be better than that in the Pearl River Delta, and the demand for labor is greater. But now the overall situation is that the economic growth rate is slowing down, and it is hard to say that jobs in the Yangtze River Delta are easier to find. With the slowdown of global economic growth, the situation of oversupply of labor will become more severe, and the demand for labor will continue to decrease. " Ge Shoukun, director of the Yangtze River Delta Development Research Center of Jiangsu Academy of Social Sciences, said in an interview yesterday.

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