Has the liquor industry entered a bottleneck period and what is its development potential?

I don't agree with the subject. The liquor industry has entered a peak rather than a bottleneck, and this market will continue for some time. Why is there such a view? Let's take a look at the data first:

65,438+0. The market value of liquor companies has reached its peak. At present, the market value of Kweichow Moutai is 1.4 trillion, Wuliangye is 489.2 billion, Yanghe150.2 billion, and LU ZHOU LAO JIAO CO.,LTD shares are1/7.7 billion. The market value of the four major companies has all exceeded 100 billion, and Maotai ranks first in A shares.

2. The sales of liquor rose sharply. In the first three quarters of 20 19, Kweichow Moutai sold 63.5 billion yuan, up/kloc-0.5% year-on-year, Wuliangye sold/kloc-0.25 billion yuan, up 32% year-on-year, and Yanghe sold 7 145 billion yuan, up/kloc-0.5% year-on-year. The sales of LU ZHOU LAO JIAO CO.,LTD Co., Ltd. was 3.79 billion yuan, up 37.9% year-on-year, and the sales of other brands also increased more or less.

3. Brand influence is getting stronger and stronger. Not to mention Moutai, Tian Fei series is in short supply, and it is hard to find a bottle on the market. In particular, the ex-factory price of Maotai is more than 900 yuan, and the guide price is 1.499 yuan. The price of a batch of maotai has remained above 2000 yuan all the year round. Even some places bought Wuliangye when Tian Fei Maotai could not buy it, which objectively promoted the sales of Wuliangye, and Wuliangye also increased its price this year. LU ZHOU LAO JIAO CO.,LTD Co., Ltd., on the other hand, raised prices twice in two months this year1October 165438+ and February 65438+.

Looking at the future development potential: First, the head liquor enterprises will maintain growth, and the sales amount will continue to increase through price increase, but the growth is limited. Second, the competition among second-tier wine enterprises is fierce, some brands will stand out, and some brands will be sluggish. Third, the third-line brands will continue to be maintained and the sales volume will gradually increase.

First, the first-line wine enterprises will continue to grow. Now the sales of red wine and beer have increased greatly, but Ma Yun once said: You will fall in love with Moutai after 45 years old, and you will understand. In fact, liquor is like this. You will not taste the historical details of liquor until you reach a certain age.

The competition among second-tier wine enterprises is fierce. Most of the second-tier wine enterprises sell a lot in this province. They should not only compete with the second-line brands of first-line wine companies, but also compete with other second-line wine companies. A good brand and good operation may stand out. For example, st Huangtai, the wine overlord of that year, was already delisted due to poor management.

Third, the third-line wine enterprises will continue to grow. Third-line brands are very famous in the local area because of their low prices. Just like today's Pinduoduo, the third-line wine enterprises still live a small life because of different audiences and small profits but quick turnover.

Generally speaking, "the bargaining power of first-line famous wines is great, which can be offset by price increases and subsidies by virtue of their own brand advantages and channel advantages. The second-and third-tier wine enterprises are actually price-oriented, with low product prices and sensitivity to cost changes. In addition, they do not have advantages in brands and channels, and they also lack certain bargaining power. The increase of consumption tax will inevitably lead to the decline of product sales rate and have a negative impact on enterprise management. When the differentiation trend of liquor industry becomes more and more obvious, it will even endanger the survival of enterprises.

I think the liquor industry is a very good industry. Liquor belongs to the category of food and fast-moving consumer goods. No matter how expensive a bottle of wine is, it will be gone as long as you drink it. If you want to drink more, you have to buy more. Moreover, one of the characteristics of liquor is the year. Liquor can be faked, but the year cannot be faked. Liquor will be based on the year. No matter how good the wine is, the taste will be much worse if the year is not up. It is not good wine. For example, three-year wine is three-year wine, and ten-year wine is ten-year wine. Even if you drink a bottle of wine for ten years twice, if you want to drink wine for another ten years, I'm sorry, you have to wait for another ten years.

The liquor industry has not entered any bottleneck period. We are a big country with a population of 65.438+0.4 billion and a big market with a population of 65.438+0.4 billion. Liquor is our culture. Even now, there is a saying that there is no wine and no joy. Although red wine has a certain impact on our market, white wine still occupies the main position. White wine and red wine are actually two different things, and red wine cannot replace white wine.

As far as the domestic market is concerned, the annual output of Moutai is limited, and some of this limited wine is used for export, which can not meet the domestic market. Although there are many other wines, few of them are guaranteed in quality, and the price is expensive, which is not for ordinary people to consume.

With the growing strength of our country and the implementation of our Belt and Road Plan, foreigners know more about us and our products, and our market is not limited to the domestic market. Our Chinese food can conquer the world, and maybe one day, our white wine can conquer the world.

I think it is still a good time to make liquor and a good time to be a brand. Because even if the liquor market is very chaotic now, except for those big brands, the quality of most other liquors is still not guaranteed. Even the vintage wines of those big brands are not all true, and some clearly say "20 years". In fact, the content of a bottle of wine in 20 years is only one drop. Therefore, liquor can be made, but it must be true and not fake. Packaging design should also have characteristics, and it is best to extract national characteristics, which can be used for export and cooperation with foreign distributors; There is also the adoption of new marketing methods.

At present, the liquor industry is at the peak of its development. Whether it enters the bottleneck depends on whether China's economy enters the bottleneck.

Judging from the capital market, the valuation of liquor is already very high. Maotai, for example, produces 60,000 tons of liquor and 65.438+0.2 billion bottles a year. I don't believe that every 10 person will drink maotai in a year. More is hoarding, because the price difference is too big. One bottle of Tmall retail 1499, physical store 2499, price difference of one bottle 1000. Naturally, many people are going to fry.

In addition, there are a large number of private equity and investment companies around Maotai, doing nothing else, going to wholesale Maotai every day, doing it twice and three times. There are many doorways and complicated relationships. Recently, some maotai sellers and online sellers were arrested, which is related to this.

Therefore, alcohol is not in a bottleneck period, but has been artificially fired to a high point.

Take the capital market as an example. If the main force holds the market value of Maotai of 65.438+0 billion yuan, and takes out 65.438+0 billion yuan to set up a private equity or third-party investment company to sweep the goods at the retail end, the market will be out of stock. Then, the stock price will go up. Look at its trend. In three years, it rose from 2065.438+0200 yuan to 654.38+0200 yuan now. The market value of 10 billion has become 60 billion, and its investment is only 10 billion or even 2 billion. The goods are still valuable, and they are still valuable!

So when we look at liquor, we can't see whether it has any problems in production and sales, but it has a high degree of linkage with the capital market. Of course, once the bubble in the capital market bursts, the liquor industry will naturally be affected, and the downward trend will be a continuous decline for several years. The goods hoarded at the retail end will naturally be sold, and the price will naturally continue to decline.

After all, there are only a few people who drink Maotai. It is impossible to drink 1.2 bottles a year, even if 100000 people drink10 bottles a year.

Therefore, the future development of liquor industry, that is, it is impossible to double. A large number of gout people in China, as well as the younger generation's disapproval of liquor and people's rational consumption, can increasingly see that the bubble of liquor has blown to the point where it is no big deal.

In the capital market, it depends on who will take over.

See from which angle to understand.

Judging from the market demand, liquor is basically consumed by people over middle age, and young people drink less and less liquor, because beer, red wine and even foreign wine have taken a large share of liquor. But it doesn't mean that liquor has reached the bottleneck. Jiang is an example, which stands out from many liquor brands and fights its way out.

From the industry point of view, the competition between liquor brands has been very fierce, and they have carved up their own markets. At the high end, Maotai, Wuliangye, Guojiao 1573 have been occupied, and general brands have no chance; The competition in the low-end market is fierce, and it is a red sea. It is really rare to fight our way out like Jiang. It can be said that the liquor industry is very mature, and there are few opportunities for new brands, even internet brands are difficult.

The liquor industry has indeed entered a bottleneck period. First, during the liquor dividend period in previous years, a large number of repeated construction of liquor enterprises led to homogenization competition in the market. For a long time in China, almost every county has its own winery, and even some state-owned enterprises and some state-owned farms in some towns have set up their own wineries and owned their own liquor brands. Secondly, with the changes of the times and the consumption environment, people's scenes of liquor consumption have also changed greatly. For example, due to the strengthening of the government's anti-corruption efforts, the market for high-end liquor as a gift has shrunk dramatically. For example, the growth of the younger generation has changed the scene of liquor consumption. Internet accelerates the pace of life, reduces social costs and enriches lifestyles. Let liquor become a pastime tool, and this kind of scene will become less. There are few liquor consumption scenes with high frequency and high consumption for entertainment. After 90 s and 00 s, you won't set a big table and drink a few boxes of wine like the previous generation and two generations. The third is that the era of incremental market has passed and the era of stock has arrived. The market is saturated. What the liquor market needs is more optimized product quality, more diversified consumption scenarios, higher requirements of consumers for product culture and demands, and the era of consumption upgrading is coming. Liquor enterprises that don't know the changes of consumer market, consumer psychology and business model reconstruction will be eliminated. Fourth, with the shrinkage of the high-end gift market, the liquor market has been reduced in price, and high-quality brands have seized the middle-priced market, while medium-sized brands have occupied the lower-priced market, and products in the reserve market no longer have consumers. Due to price competition, the pressure of liquor cost increases, competition brings marketing channels, and the cost increases sharply, resulting in a serious decline in product quality. Liquor will be farther and farther away from people's consumption table.

Liquor has been really outstanding recently. In recent 1 year, the liquor sector increased by about 65%, while the consumption of CSI increased by about 53% in the same period. Liquor has obviously increased even more, and has now entered a high valuation area. In the short term, liquor is a high point at present, but it does not mean that liquor has no investment value, because in the long run, liquor has the attribute of having to be consumed. As long as the demand is stable, the price of liquor will rise.

At the same time, with the improvement of consumption level, the consumption structure of liquor is gradually changing, showing a trend of high-end, which means that if you want to invest in liquor and profit from it, it is more appropriate to choose high-end liquor.

1. Liquor is currently overvalued, but investment can also be profitable. After several years of continuous rise, the liquor sector has entered a high valuation area and is currently at a high point. At first glance, liquor may not have investment value, but it is not.

So wait and see in the near future, after falling for a while, add positions on dips, in fact, it is to buy at a low point, and the profit in the later stage of liquor will be less!

2. High-end liquor has more investment value. Everyone can personally realize that our consumption level is improving and our consumption concept is changing. In the past, we were full, and then we ate meat. Now we eat healthily and tastefully, which can be said to be getting higher and higher.

The demand of consumers is changing, so the demand for liquor will naturally change, and it will also change in the high-end direction. For example, those who drink Erguotou now, such as giving gifts, annual meetings and visiting relatives and friends, mostly choose high-end liquor, such as Wuliangye and Maotai.

Then the change of demand structure will inevitably lead to the change of liquor growth structure. In the future, the growth of high-end liquor will accelerate, and low-end liquor may fall. Therefore, in the future, the probability of investing in high-end liquor is greater and the income is greater.

Liquor has certainly entered the bottleneck period, because it is a consumer product and belongs to a subdivision in the post-economic cycle. So when you look at the profits of liquor enterprises in the past five years, it is obvious that there is a periodic fluctuation.

Take Kweichow Moutai as an example. It reached the peak of the last cycle at 20 13. In fact, the overall economy was not very good in 20 14, so the interest rate cut at the end of 20 14 started this economic cycle, and Kweichow Moutai also started a three-year decline cycle. It was not until 20 16 that the new cycle of Maotai began. Maotai achieved a quarterly growth rate of 60% in the third quarter of 20 17. The last such increase occurred in the third quarter of 20 13.

Now Maotai has not grown for a quarter, so Maotai is now doing everything possible to distribute goods through channels. The price reduction indicates that the growth period has passed.

Look at Yanghe and Niulanshan in low-end wine. Basically, there is no growth this year compared with last year, but there is still a certain decline. Judging from the earnings per share. Therefore, this round of wine cycle can basically be judged to the top.

It is a foregone conclusion that the development of liquor has entered the bottleneck period, and there is no development prospect. Mainly young people drink less and less liquor, and liquor is only drunk by middle-aged and elderly people. The population of China will enter a period of negative growth in the coming year, and the population will decrease year by year, which indicates that there will be fewer and fewer potential consumers of liquor in the future. What do you think of the liquor industry? In the future, how to improve the quality of liquor and reduce operating costs is what the liquor factory should consider. Increasing production is not a dream. Maintaining the survival of enterprises is the top priority of liquor production enterprises, and becoming bigger and stronger is not a dream.

Don't answer directly. The slump in housing transactions is a matter of money (people are short of money due to the epidemic and war). Originally used for living, but the real economy has financial attributes tied to banks. White wine seems ok. This is not only a question of money, but also a question of health. Originally used for drinking, it is also a real economy. But linked to the collection, it has become the darling of the stock market. The same financial attributes may enter the bottleneck period!

I don't know much. I feel that wine is still stronger than most industries, especially long-term investment. Stop arguing and watch the development!