How about Long Tail Theory 20?

First, the long tail theory 1. The new 80/20 phenomenon In the knowledge-based "long tail" economy, 20% of the hot commodities will be concentrated in 10% of the hot commodities, which will be further divided into 2% of the hot commodities and 8% of the sub-hot commodities. 2% of popular products bring 50% revenue and 33% profit, and 8% of sub-popular products bring 25% revenue and 33% profit; The remaining 90% long tail products will bring 25% revenue and 33% profit. In terms of profit, two thirds of the people share the world equally. 2. The basic feature of Long Tail Market (1) is that its sales radius is much larger than that of ordinary stores. (2) Its shelves are virtual shelves with greatly extended length. (3) The search cost and transaction cost of specific consumers looking for products in demand are much lower than those of ordinary shops. 3. Six themes of the Long Tail Era-1. In any market, there are far more niche products than mass products; -2. The cost of obtaining these niche products is dropping sharply. Now many markets have been able to supply unprecedented products. -3. Through tools and technical means such as automatic recommendation to product ranking, these "filters" can push the demand to the back end of the long tail; -4. The demand curve will flatten out; -5. The collection of niche products will form a big market that can compete with the hot market. -6. When all the above points are realized, the natural form of demand curve will appear, which will not be distorted by supply bottleneck, insufficient information and priority shelf space. 4. Economic explanation of the long tail phenomenon There is indeed a basic concept in economics: you can't get everything for free-the whole economics is built around the balance of interests and balanced methods. We are entering an era of infinite space. In the long tail market of digital products, two important scarce functions of traditional economics-marginal sound field cost and marginal sales cost-are approaching zero, because bytes can be copied and transmitted almost at zero cost. Can economics certainly explain this problem? Abundance can be seen everywhere, especially in the technical field. Second, about motivation 1. Reputation motivation-the reason why this long tail can be called "economy" is because there is another wealth in this field that is no less than money-reputation. Reputation is measured by how much attention a product attracts, which can be transformed into other valuable things: jobs, titles, fans and various attractive business opportunities. All these motives can change the creator's view of copyright. At the top of the curve, major studios, record companies and publishers are desperately defending their copyrights. The middle of the curve, that is, the territory of independent musicians and academic media, is a gray area of copyright issues. If we continue to move closer to the tail and further enter the non-commercial area, we will see that more and more creators are giving up some copyright protection without hesitation. 2. Cultural motivation-Our society is getting richer and richer, which makes us change from a cautious buyer of brand goods to a small connoisseur, showing our unique taste with thousands of different hobbies. People deliberately use inconsistent words to describe our new consumption behavior: "popularization", "simplification" and "mass customization". The long tail is a culture that has not been filtered out by economic deprivation. People get together not only because they want to be close to each other, but also because they like those well-equipped urban centers, although both are important. These big cities exist because the cultural and economic advantages of dense settlements can completely make up for the cost of urban life. Ironically, one of the advantages is the wonderful market segment. Subculture is so prosperous in big cities for the same reason: if you have special taste, you are more likely to find your bosom friend in a city with a population of 9 million. -In the field of our alternative interests, we often invest more deeply than other fields, so that our enthusiasm will take us into the deep world of these minority cultures. -The trend from * * * common interests to special interests does not mean the end of the traditional power structure, nor does it mean that we are turning to a purely amateur computer culture. In fact, this is only the rebalancing of the equation, and it is only the evolution from the "or" era to the "and" era: in the past, only the best-selling or non-best-selling products could be selected, but now they can be selected at the same time. Our culture is more and more like a mixture of head and tail, a mixture of institutions and individuals, a mixture of professionals and businessmen. Pop culture has not declined, but it is no longer so popular. Small-scale cultural industries are no longer so obscure. 3. Motivation to choose Although too many choices are harmful, consumers need to choose and need many choices. However, the benefits of choice do not come from the choice itself, but from the process of choice. As long as the choosers feel that their free-will actors have successfully determined their preferences and the final choice results in the process of selection, the importance of choice will be restored, and psychological experiments will inevitably systematically exclude the factors of consumption habits and enterprise management-it is these factors that make the choices in real life (especially shopping decisions) rule-based. This is because the psychological laboratory is used to understand the human brain, not the market ... In fact, people don't hate choices, even if they are dazzling choices, they have a complicated feeling about choices. In the real world, especially in the real market, they often get help when making choices. Third, the niche market 1. The characteristics of niche markets-we can condense the long tail theory into a simple sentence: our cultural and economic focus is accelerating, from a few hot spots (mainstream products and markets) at the head of the demand curve to a large number of niche products and markets at the end of the demand curve. -The long tail phenomenon mainly exists in digital products markets such as music, movies, e-books and information. Many such cases have also been found in other markets: open source software programs, such as various browsers, itune market and andriod market, have the long tail of programming genius, and the outsourcing industry has tapped the long tail of labor; The surge of micro-brewed beer; Add personalized customized T-shirts, shoes and other clothing; The development of online universities is called "the long tail of education"; Even for people with all tastes and quirks, the Internet has become the longest "erotic long tail". -( 1) The long tail of the product category is much longer than we thought; (2) Now we can effectively develop this long tail; (3) Once all the niche products are assembled, an objective big market can be created; 2. Three forces in niche market (1) production tools+from passive consumers to active producers-just like books published by amateur writers through Lulu, the products themselves usually don't make much money, but it doesn't matter. The important thing is that the product is there and shared with others. Not the product of traditional business, but can drink the product of traditional business and compete on the same stage. All this has brought a consequence: we are changing from passive consumers to active producers. And we amare born for interest-the word "amateur" itself once came from Latin "amator", and the verb means "to love". +Producer's Role-For producers, the biggest difference between the head and the tail of a curve is the job role: the closer you are to the tail, the more difficult it is to balance your hobbies and formal work. (2) Communication tools+word of mouth, viral marketing-for Internet users, it is very rebellious-there are many trustworthy individuals and few trustworthy institutions-the most effective advertisements come from peers, and nothing is more effective than word of mouth. This word-of-mouth communication leads to "those who believe believe, those who don't believe will never believe", which is the best embodiment of the long tail phenomenon. -CD burning and communication between friends are the most powerful "viral marketing", and the enjoyment of featured music lists will also extend the oral communication effect to the whole industry. There are even some merchants and internet radio stations that provide good song recommendation services. These companies not only recommend the coolest underground musicians to fans, but also try to evaluate and satisfy their personal tastes more and more accurately. +Text communication tool-Text communication tool-Forever egalitarian pioneer. Although the copier first exposed the lie that "the power of the media always belongs to those who own it", it is the blog that really makes commercial publishers show their talents. Today, millions of people are publishing their own journals, and their readership far exceeds that of any mainstream media. The success of blogs is still due to the popularity of tools: simple and cheap software and services enable anyone to try to publish online. +The progress of communication tools-(1) The efficient "printing on demand" mode has increased the types of books on the market; -(2) the increase of small independent publishers; -(3) self-publishing; +business aggregator+five modes-products (Taobao, Dangdang, Amazon)-digital products (app store, itunes)- advertising/service (google)- information (Google, Wikipedia)-online community/user-created content (blog, watercress, meager, (everyone)) (3) linking supply and demand with consumers' emotions 2. Minority Market Case (1) Second-hand book market-About the second-hand book market: In the past few decades, the second-hand book market was actually composed of two completely different markets, about two-thirds of the territory was occupied by the booming textbook business, and campus transactions were the core of this market. The remaining 1/3 belongs to about12,000 second-hand bookstores that walk all over the country, which is a relatively quiet field. +Second-hand teaching materials-Second-hand teaching materials can be described as a model of an efficient market-millions of students buy them first, and then monopolize those expensive teaching materials that only last for one semester each year. Which books have resale value depends on the setting of core courses, and the price depends on the degree of competition among campus bookstores. The economic model of this market is more like leasing than commercial transactions. Generally speaking, bookstores can buy textbooks at a 50% discount and then resell them at a 75% discount. +Non-academic second-hand books-The non-academic second-hand book market relies on local people to sell books. The variety selection of these bookstores shows considerable randomness, and shopkeepers are willing to do it. Property buyers can only hit the Universiade, and supply and demand are not targeted at all. For the frequent customers of bookstores, this randomness is one of the attractions, because it steals a sense of excitement of exploration and unexpected discovery. (2) The power of blogs and newspapers comes from their monopoly on production tools. As more and more people set up websites and blogs, the difference between professional news and amateur reports becomes more and more blurred. Blogs can focus on some topics, which few media reporters can do. A newspaper won't hire a reporter just because he is familiar with the use of an old typewriter, but in the blog world, there are many people who are experts in small fields. -Although a single blog cannot guarantee the accuracy of information, the error correction mechanism of the whole blog world is stronger than that of traditional media. The ability of blogs to quickly collect and filter complex information also makes traditional media ashamed. Not only do we have millions of blogs and thousands of professional blogs, but readers who comment on blogs are also a powerful force. The blog model is Hayek's classic theory: the market economy can effectively gather a large amount of information, although it is decentralized, lacking a general coordinator or mediator, and the knowledge of each participant is very limited. (3) Wikipedia-the founder of Wikipedia is not a smart guy, nor a group of carefully selected smart guys, but thousands of people of all colors-both purely interested experts and onlookers, as well as a large number of volunteer administrators who are responsible for different directories and supervise their improvement every day. What is really remarkable about Wiki is that it can constantly improve itself and treat itself organically for a long time. The huge and expanding guardian team is like an immune system, which can make an alert and quick response to anything that threatens Wikipedia. The real magic of Wikipedia lies in its order: this open system, which is still created and edited by amateur users, has not fallen into anarchy. On the contrary, it successfully organized the most complicated encyclopedia in history. -The traditional creation process of encyclopedias (professional editing, scholar writing and peer review) aims at perfection. Perfection is rarely achieved, and the pursuit of accuracy and clarity certainly brings the unity and credibility of the results, but the waste of time and production costs will also increase dramatically. Most other works of professional publishing houses are similar. -this kind of "collective production", that is, large-scale voluntary participation and commercial participation, is an unusual phenomenon in the internet window. We are entering a brand-new era: most producers in any field are freelance business people, and the main difference between them and professionals is only the difference in available resources-relatively few resources (but the gap is narrowing) limit their ability to do so. But when everyone can get the tools of production, everyone will become a producer. (4) Self-publishing-We are used to observing the book market from a commercial perspective. I always thought that most authors wanted to write bestsellers and become millionaires. But in fact, the vast majority of authors will not only become millionaires, but even have no idea of writing a bestseller. Nearly 200,000 English books are published every year, but less than 20,000 books enter ordinary bookstores. Most books will not sell well. The average sales volume of American books is around 500, and 98% of books have no commercial value-whether this is against the original intention of publishers or not. To be accepted by the mass market, compromise is inevitable-you can only choose topics that most people are interested in, not a few people, and you can only adopt popular narrative style instead of academic style. In fact, the vast majority of authors have chosen their own way and have no intention of making big money. Many people only want their books to be read by specific groups that they value: for example, people with similar backgrounds or similar interests. -Lulu.com, a new DIY publishing house. For less than $200, you can realize your publishing dream: Lulu can not only turn your IF into a paperback or hardcover book and give it an ISBN number, but also ensure that online retailers can include it in the stacks. The sales volume of the top ten self-published books is between 5,000 and 50,000, and 80% of the sales profits go directly to the author's pocket, which is much higher than the average publishing house's 15%. Obviously, it is unfounded to think that all publishers are losers. -Most authors use this self-publishing service for neither making money nor making a splash. They know that their books can't be sold, so it's not worth turning to commercial publishers. This is not to say that they have no readers, but that they have fewer readers of knowledge.