The biggest challenge of global energy governance

Challenges faced by global energy development: energy supply, energy environment, energy distribution and energy efficiency.

First, energy supply is facing challenges.

Driven by the global economic development, the global energy consumption has increased from 5.38 billion tons of standard coal in 1965 to 2.01865438+900 million tons of standard coal in 3 years, an increase of 2.4 times. In the future, world energy consumption will continue to grow.

Fossil energy reserves are limited and non-renewable, and large-scale development and utilization will inevitably lead to accelerated depletion of resources. At present, the easy-to-mine oil is rapidly decreasing and gradually concentrated in a few countries, and the easy-to-mine coal only has a mining period of several decades.

From the layout, the world energy resources and energy consumption are inversely distributed, and energy development is increasingly concentrated in a few countries and regions. In some resource-poor countries, the dependence on foreign energy is increasing, the energy supply chain is fragile, and the security problems are prominent.

Second, the energy environment is facing challenges.

Fossil energy combustion is the main source of global greenhouse gas emissions. Energy activities are still the decisive factor affecting greenhouse gas emissions at present and in the future. The greenhouse effect caused by greenhouse gas emissions poses the following four threats to human survival and development, including the reduction of land area, the extinction of a large number of species, the threat to food supply and the harm to human health.

Fossil energy combustion emits a lot of pollutants such as smoke and dust, which leads to frequent smog and seriously harms human health. Since the industrial revolution, compound pollution is characterized by fine particulate pollution formed by nitrogen oxides, hydrocarbons and secondary pollutants.

It appears in most developed countries and some developing countries, which leads to the decrease of atmospheric visibility and the increase of haze days, threatening human health.

Third, energy distribution faces challenges.

Global fossil energy allocation has the characteristics of large total amount, many links and long transportation distance. The existing traditional transportation modes of fossil energy, such as sea transportation, railway transportation, road transportation, etc., usually have long chains and low efficiency, and need to be connected with each other to complete the whole energy transportation process, which is easily influenced by external factors.

With the development of global clean energy, the importance of long-distance large-scale power allocation will become more and more prominent, but the existing power allocation capacity is obviously insufficient.

Fourth, energy efficiency is facing challenges.

Whether it is fossil energy or clean energy, its development, allocation and utilization efficiency is not high enough, and there is a lot of room for improvement. There are some problems in the development process, such as low resource utilization rate and low energy conversion efficiency.

There are many links in fossil energy allocation, and the allocation efficiency is not high. In addition to some fossil energy directly used as terminal energy, there are quite a few coal, natural gas and even fuel oil used for power generation. This part of fossil energy has to be transported to the power plant through multiple links, with many intermediate links and great energy loss.

Global energy development direction

1, oil development entered a stable period.

Due to the continuous innovation of theory, technology and method, Hubbard's theory of peak oil production put forward in 1956 was subverted, and the peak oil production in the world was rising and the peak time was delayed, which is likely to be extended to 2 1 mid-century.

The life cycle of the world oil industry may exceed 300 years. Judging from multiple factors, the peak oil production should appear around 2040, with a peak output of about 5 billion tons. ?

2. The development of natural gas has entered the peak period.

Natural gas has entered a stage of rapid development, and it is a bridge or accompaniment of the transition from fossil energy to new energy, and will play a pillar role in the future energy development of the world.

In the past 50 years, the proportion of natural gas in the global primary energy consumption structure has risen from 16% to 24%, making it the fastest growing fossil energy in the global energy structure. The breakthrough and development of unconventional natural gas is expected to greatly increase the scale of world natural gas production and extend the life cycle of natural gas industry.

3. Coal development has entered a transitional period.

As the cheapest fossil energy, coal will play an important role in the world energy structure. With the demand of human ecological environment protection, coal utilization will change to the direction of high efficiency and cleanliness. At present, half of the world's coal is used for power generation, and efficient and clean power generation is the main direction of coal resource utilization in the future.

4. The development of new energy has entered a golden period.

The development of new energy has been in a breakthrough period and is gradually entering a golden period. Developing new energy is the key to realize low-carbon development and has become a new driving force for global energy growth. The speed of the new energy revolution is likely to exceed expectations, especially the reduction of the cost of new energy generation and the breakthrough of battery energy storage technology, which will strongly promote the arrival of the new energy era.

People's information-the challenge of global energy development