Is the serious decline in automobile sales in China really due to overcapacity?

Since 2009, China has been the largest automobile producer and marketer in the world for several years. However, behind the prosperity, China's automobile manufacturing industry is brewing a crisis of overcapacity.

In March of 20 15, the analysis report on the automobile industry released by PricewaterhouseCoopers, a world-renowned accounting firm, predicted that during the period of 201-2018, the proportion of automobile overcapacity in China would reach the highest point in 20 12, accounting for 28.5%. Since then, it has declined year by year. In 20 18, the proportion of automobile overcapacity in China was 15%, and the overcapacity in China automobile industry became a serious problem threatening the healthy development of the industry.

In fact, as early as September of 20 10, at TEDA International Automobile Forum in Tianjin, Chen Bin, then director of the Industry Coordination Department of the National Development and Reform Commission, warned that the rapid expansion of domestic automobile enterprises aggravated the risk of overcapacity under the background of local government promotion and over-optimistic market prospects of automobile manufacturers.

"From the current point of view, although the signs of the overall stabilization of the auto market are becoming more and more obvious, there is no doubt about overcapacity." China automobile dealers association Deputy Secretary-General Relo said that after several years of high growth, China's automobile industry has entered a stable period, but the growth rate of production capacity has not slowed down. Under the influence of the rapid release of early production capacity, the market's digestion of products is not as fast as before, and overcapacity is inevitable.

China automobile industry has low industrial concentration and unbalanced production capacity. At present, there are more than 130 automobile enterprises in China, which is the largest among the automobile powers in the world. However, 87% of the sales came from the top ten automobile manufacturers, and more than 65,438+000 local small automobile manufacturers grabbed the remaining 65,438+03% of the market sales. The output and profitability of these small manufacturers are low, and the backward technology makes their products mostly concentrated in the low-end market, and the market sales are extremely low.

Compared with joint venture brands, the best choice for independent brand car companies to digest production capacity is to enhance brand power and sales. It is very important to improve the capacity utilization rate by arranging the capacity reasonably on the basis of the overall market sales forecast and the competitiveness share forecast of the relevant independent brand automobile enterprises.