Internal combustion engine cars will be eliminated in a few years.

Cars designed with internal combustion engines will never be eliminated. We can rest assured that we won't see it at least in our lifetime. If the internal combustion engine is to be eliminated, it should be 100 years or more.

The stability and reliability of fuel engine are very good, which is more stable and reliable than electric vehicle. With the development of one hundred years, we can be completely confident, so it is also the use equipment of backup electricity. Therefore, diesel locomotives will survive stably for hundreds of years, not just a few years. It is naive to know that pure electric vehicles have been developed for nearly twenty years, but there is still not much improvement. We know the stability of internal combustion engines.

The technological upgrading direction of automobile industry has been determined. The long-term goal is to achieve all-electric, and the transition period is mainly plug-in hybrid power. The restriction of internal combustion engine should be to prohibit the sale of fuel-powered vehicles, and the key points should be paid attention to-prohibiting sales rather than driving; Therefore, there are still several years to analyze the internal combustion engine, and what needs to be analyzed or predicted in essence is the appropriate no-burning vehicle type.

The node of online fuel vehicle sales ban is 2025. This information first flowed out from a forum of the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology. The original intention is that the fuel vehicle sales ban plan is already in the planning process, and I don't know how to interpret it as 2025 in the later stage, but this interpretation has certain reference value. Later, on 20 19. 12.3, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology issued a document again, "New Energy Automobile Industry Development Plan (202 1-2035)", which mentioned several very important contents about electric and hybrid vehicles.

1: By 2025, the core technology of new energy vehicles in China will reach the advanced level, pure electric vehicles will become the mainstream, the bus field will be fully electrified, and networking and highly automatic driving will be realized. In this content, in addition to highly autonomous driving, the conversion rate of electric vehicles in public transport is over 60%, the dependence on oil imports is 70%, and the cost of pollution control is too high. It is almost certain that electric vehicles will become the mainstream and the transformation of public transport.

2. According to the Planning, by 2025, the average fuel consumption of pure electric vehicles will be reduced to below 12kWh/ 100km, and the average fuel consumption of plug-in hybrid vehicles including extended-range plug-in vehicles will be below 2L/ 100km. Not to mention fuel-powered cars. The interpretation of this article is that the automobile form after 2025 is basically determined, and there should be no doubt whether there will be pure fuel-powered vehicles afterwards; Of course, the interpretation of this content needs more convincing evidence, and all major car companies have provided reference, such as the following ten.

The fuel vehicle shutdown nodes of more than ten car companies mentioned above are all earlier than 2025. Obviously, these are two transitional periods. The first transition period is the plug-in hybrid vehicle stage from 2020 to 2022, and the second transition period is the pure electric strategic transformation from 2023 to 2025. The influence and market share of these car companies in the domestic auto market are not high, so once these car companies begin to transform, it will inevitably have a chain effect. In the two stages, the internal combustion engine will inevitably become a thing of the past, but the form may change.

Piston internal combustion engine is the main model in the century-old automobile industry era. The characteristic energy conversion rate of this machine is very low, and the engine with 40% thermal efficiency will attract the attention of almost all car enthusiasts. But the motor can easily reach about 95%, because the concept of energy form and mechanical structure is different, which affects the efficiency.

Therefore, some automobile companies have been developing mixed piston stratified compression ignition internal combustion engines. The technical concept is simply that the permanent magnet structure integrates the cylinder, and the piston is driven by electromagnetic force to achieve ultra-high compression ratio; At the same time, the complicated connecting rod crankshaft structure is cancelled. The principle is similar to the integration of two Stirling heat engines, except that the energy source is electricity instead of heat. The obtained electric energy is much higher than the lost electric energy, and it may replace the traditional internal combustion engine as a range extender in the future. By then, both ordinary internal combustion engines and ultra-high energy consumption fuel cells will become a thing of the past. (For professional ethics, it is impossible to explain which independent brand is conducting research and development. )

Summary: The above is the time node prediction of internal combustion engine exiting the historical stage, and whether it has reference value is a matter of opinion. It should also be noted that banning sales does not mean banning fuel vehicles. Fuel vehicles that have been purchased and used normally can be used for a long time. The research on the time to market of traditional fuel vehicles mentioned in the plan is longer than predicted, which is also a response to the voice of fuel owners. (The plan is under study)

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Internal combustion engines will not be eliminated in a short time (20 years)! However, the market share will be lower and lower. At present, the new cars on sale are mainly fuel vehicles, and the fuel economy is too strong to be shaken.

There is a transition period from fuel vehicles to new energy sources, during which many vehicles similar to hybrid vehicles, plug-in hybrid vehicles and pure electric vehicles will be produced. However, due to high cost and immature technology, it is impossible to cover all consumer groups overnight.

There will be more new energy vehicles on the market in 2020, but consumers still prefer internal combustion engines. The introduction of new energy by major manufacturers is also a positive response to the improvement of national policies and various laws and regulations, and does not mean replacing internal combustion engines and eliminating internal combustion engines.

The internal combustion engine has mature technology, low economic cost, strong supply chain, wide coverage of gas stations and sound petroleum industry chain. In the next 10-20 years, internal combustion engine will still be the mainstream of driving form.

Although in the long run, pure electricity is the development direction of energy-saving and environment-friendly vehicles in China, it is not so easy to realize the ideal society of pure electric vehicles in the end. There are too many problems to be solved, such as charging efficiency, motor power, battery energy density, intelligent electronic control and so on. The whole society should also build corresponding supporting resources. It takes a lot of time and scientific progress to solve these problems, so there is still a "buffer period" for the transformation of traditional internal combustion engine vehicles to pure electric vehicles, and this buffer period may be longer than most people think, so the internal combustion engine is still promising.

For a long time to come, the traditional internal combustion engine will surely occupy an important leading position. As the basic industry of national economy, internal combustion engine is also the leading power of all mobile machinery. For the current mainstream displacement 1.0- 1.5L in China market, it is a good choice to choose a three-cylinder engine based on the single-cylinder efficiency optimization strategy. Compared with the four-cylinder engine, the three-cylinder engine has the advantages of small volume, light weight and compact structure. It has no inherent exhaust interference of four-cylinder engine, small turbine lag and better low-speed torque, especially the three-cylinder engine has the advantage of friction work in structure.

From six cylinders to four cylinders, and from four cylinders to three cylinders, there is essentially no difference between the driving and challenges of technology. What changes are greater R&D investment, more high-tech R&D applications, and deeper vehicle system matching? Now it is necessary to solve and improve the "thermal efficiency" of internal combustion engines. Due to the bottleneck of technology research and development, the traditional internal combustion engine currently used is far from reaching the limit, and the thermal efficiency of most models on the market is between 30% and 36%. In other words, it's a pity that the engine only uses half a little force to make the car run, and the remaining thermal efficiency is wasted a lot. However, the principle of the engine is to drive the relevant parts of the car to work through energy conversion, which will inevitably lead to energy loss, but it also shows from another angle that the fuel engine still has great potential to be tapped.

It is a very important goal for the future automobile development to further improve the thermal efficiency of traditional fuel vehicles and meet the carbon dioxide regulations. With the rapid development of new energy vehicles, it is imperative to improve the thermal efficiency of internal combustion engines if traditional fuel engines want to survive in the market. In addition, the diversification of internal combustion engine fuel is the future development trend, and the future internal combustion engine should be mainly diesel and gasoline, while paying attention to low-carbon fuel in the whole life cycle.

Diesel locomotives were eliminated a few years later, and no one could say the exact answer.

Although new energy is the trend, there are still many development problems, such as the battery cost of pure electric (EV), battery technology, charging technology and charging piles. The storage of fuel cell (FCV), the development of fuel cell stack, industrialization and weak infrastructure, etc. Plug-in hybrid electric vehicle (PHEV) is externally charged, and the cost of 10kwh battery and motor is high. River is ideal. Buick velite adopts this power system, but the overall strategy depends on the fuel economy and energy efficiency of the engine-driven motor.

But before 2030, it is certain that the single strategy of internal combustion engine driving in the power system will be abandoned and replaced by the strategy of internal combustion engine +48v light mixing, accounting for about 60% of the overall market, while the new energy market like pure electric vehicle market will further expand, and the markets of PHEV and REEV will further shrink. Secondly, there will be no breakthrough development of fuel cells in the short term, and oil-electricity hybrid will still stand out.

We analyze them one by one:

Internal combustion engine+light mixing (48V)

Limited by the stricter fuel consumption regulations in 2020 or 2025 and 2030, the average fuel consumption score (CAFC) and the new energy score (NEV), the national fuel consumption in 2020 will be 5L/ 100km, and that in 2025 will be 4L/ 100km, so a single internal combustion engine strategy can no longer meet the requirements of lower and more. It is unlikely that the content will be directly switched to renewable energy fields such as pure electricity in the short term. On the one hand, the light mixing strategy of three-cylinder small-displacement turbocharging can cope with more stringent fuel consumption methods. The fuel saving rate of 48V is 8% ~ 10%, but the cost is less than one third to one quarter of that of plug-in hybrid system. This is indeed one of the most effective measures in the short term.

In addition, traditional car companies are also slowly watching to avoid more opportunities for trial and error, so that new car companies or radical car companies can step on the thunder first and advance step by step. Like general compact models, such as Copzer, Yinglang, Chuangjie, Angola and so on. , all three cylinders, have begun to lay out the future; Traditional car companies such as Audi have also introduced models like Q2L e-tron and e-tron. In addition to A8 and other mixed light strategies, it has also begun to March into pure electricity.

Hybrid electric vehicle

With the core technologies, such as Toyota's THS power split hybrid and Honda's i-mmd series hybrid, they are basically invincible and have certain technical thresholds. The possibility of other brands' intervention is zero, otherwise the two fields will not dominate for decades …

Plug-in hybrid vehicle (PHEV)

With the reduction of battery purchase unit price and the further improvement of cruising range in the future, the charging power and charging pile layout of GAC 650km+ and Weilai 600km+ are further exaggerated, which relieves users' anxiety about mileage, charging and car use to a certain extent. Therefore, plug-in hybrid vehicles appear as the weakness of transitional models, and the market will further shrink.

Extended program

As I mentioned at the beginning, the extended range performance on the market is really unsatisfactory, and the fuel consumption per 100 kilometers is even worse than that of ordinary fuel vehicles. Under the advanced fuel consumption law in the future, this technology will either make a breakthrough or be eliminated by the market.

Hydrogen fuel (FCV)

It is unlikely to be used for civilian use in the short term, and the national conditions are different from those of Japan and South Korea. As far as technologically advanced Japan and South Korea are concerned, the number of development and the large amount of government investment have not yet achieved large-scale popularization. On the one hand, the domestic progress comes from the layout of hydrogen refueling stations, on the other hand, it is more about how to store and transport, the design of fuel cell systems and so on. High technical barriers and high input costs.

Most importantly, new energy is a trend, but there are many uncertainties; The internal combustion engine is slowly changing, but it is unlikely to be directly replaced in the short term.

Internal combustion engines will not be eliminated in 30 years, but will be marginalized, and their existing forms will become plug-in hybrid vehicles or extended-range electric vehicles. This transition process is very long, but pure fuel vehicles will disappear within 5- 10 years.

No way, the share of low-end cars may decline in the next few years, and high-end cars are mainly fuel cars.

No matter which new energy source develops into the mainstream, the fuel engine will eventually be replaced! This is the general trend. 100 years ago, the internal combustion engine dominated the automobile industry, and it is inevitable to withdraw from the rivers and lakes in the future.

20 17 Britain and France announced that they would stop selling conventional gasoline and diesel minibuses and trucks in 2040. Subsequently, the Netherlands, Norway and Germany demanded that traditional gasoline and diesel vehicles be banned from being sold in their own countries from 2025 to 2030. German Volkswagen also said that the last generation of internal combustion engines will be launched in 2026, and then the internal combustion engines will be eliminated and transformed into the era of electrification. The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology stipulates that it is forbidden to sell fuel passenger cars around 2030.

But today's electric cars can't smell good!

1. Compared with the service life of the internal combustion engine, the battery charging and discharging times and battery power attenuation of electric vehicles are big problems that cannot be solved at this stage, and the service life is far less than that of the internal combustion engine.

Second, although the use process is environmentally friendly and clean, it is inevitable that the battery will be polluted during production and recycling, although the recycling technology has been developing rapidly.

Third, the battery safety of electric vehicles has also been criticized. For example, the battery voltage of Tesla model S is 400V, that of BYD Qin is 560V, and that of Tang is 700V V. Both 400V and 700V belong to high voltage, not to mention the risk of leakage. After the battery pack is accidentally broken, the heat of a single battery is out of control, and the heat generated during this period can increase the battery temperature by 400- 1000 degrees Celsius. Then the thermal runaway will spread like firecrackers in the battery module, and the vehicle will smoke, catch fire and even deflagrate.

Fourth, the bottleneck of ease of use, now the main push of electric vehicles is some big cities. In these big cities, it can be said that it is not easy to find parking spaces, let alone find places to build charging facilities. Electric vehicles can't run without electricity. There is a lot of idle land in the countryside, but there is no demand for electric vehicles. In big cities, there is no land but it is necessary to promote electric vehicles, which is also a huge shortcoming of electric vehicles.

Internal combustion engines will not dominate the automobile engine industry in a short time. In the next two or three decades, fuel vehicles will remain the mainstream, and electric vehicles will be the trend, but only for a long time.

The speed at which internal combustion engines are eliminated depends on the speed at which the cost of new energy battery materials breaks through. During this period, the internal combustion engine is still very vital, especially in the field of commercial vehicles, and it is far from being eliminated.