The Impact of Economic Crisis on China's Manufacturing Industry

Even today, when the crisis spreads, there are still many China entrepreneurs who claim to be "manufacturing powers", and they can't face up to the two essential causes of "processing is not manufacturing" in the choice of industrial structure and "business is not the cause" in the management concept.

Ruthless economic reality makes 2008 an unusual year. Since the subprime mortgage crisis, many changes have taken place in the domestic and international economic environment. The continuous export frustration and the lack of follow-up funds have caused the closure of small and medium-sized enterprises to surge from the initial undercurrent to the present corpses. With the disillusionment of the dream of economic recovery after the Olympic Games, the stock market continued to fall, and then the financial tsunami broke out on Wall Street, and the dairy industry lost the world with "poisoned milk" untimely ... The life and death of the manufacturing industry also led to the depression of related industries, thus opening the prelude of China's enterprise society into winter.

First, the domestic and foreign troubles made in China.

Essential performance: where is the most developed and where is the most injured.

Represented by the sudden collapse of the toy giant Hejun Group, the world's largest toy foundry, the suicide of Mr. Pang Guixiong, a Guangdong Zhonggu Sugar Group, which is known as the "sugar king", and many unscrupulous bosses fleeing abroad with their families, the Pearl River Delta is full of sorrow. Jiangsu and Zhejiang, located in the Yangtze River Delta, used to be the most developed area for private lending, but also fell into the abyss of helplessness. In this huge crisis, in addition to the disasters of many enterprises, some bosses are bound to fall into despair.

1. Total foreign trade score (1)

Import and export trade and related performance from Pan-Pearl Region (2) are slightly better.

In terms of GDP growth in the first half of 2008, only Jiangxi Province grew 13.3% year-on-year, while the overall economic momentum of other provinces and regions showed a slowing trend, with an average year-on-year growth rate of 3.7%. The total import and export value was 4035 1 billion dollars, up by 16.7% over the previous year, but 9 percentage points lower than the national total, accounting for 32.7% of the total import and export value. Among them, Guangdong's total import and export value was $3,2451billion, up 13.3% year-on-year, but the growth rate was lower than the national 12.4 percentage points.

The accumulated trade surplus in the Pan-Pearl River region was US$ 67.54 billion, up by 8%, down by 44.7 percentage points in the same period. The realized trade surplus accounted for 68.2% of the national trade surplus. Among them, the total export volume was US$ 235.53 billion, an increase of 15.4%, which was 6.5 percentage points lower than the national export growth rate; The total import value was US$ 654.38+06.798 billion, an increase of 654.38+08.6%, which was lower than the national import increase of 654.38+02 percentage points.

Comparing the overall performance of import and export in China Mainland, we can see that the import and export trade shows a trend of slowing down exports and accelerating imports.

2. Traditional goods and the overall performance of enterprises

In the first half of 2008, the export growth rate of the Pan-Pearl River Delta region slowed down obviously due to multiple reasons such as insufficient external demand and low prices. Among them, the export of clothing and clothing accessories was $654.38+04.84 billion, down by 23.2%; The export of plastic products was $3.4 billion, down by 7.3%; Footwear exports reached US$ 8.08 billion, up by 1 1.4%, and the growth rate dropped by 7.3 percentage points compared with the same period of last year. The export of furniture and its parts was 5.89 billion US dollars, up by 23.9%, with a slight slowdown of 0.3 percentage points. The export of luggage and similar containers was $3010.50 billion, an increase of 19.3%, and the growth rate slowed down by 8 percentage points; Toy exports reached US$ 2.34 billion, up by 3. 1%, and the growth rate slowed down by 26.5 percentage points (as shown in the following table).

At the same time, according to the data of the National Development and Reform Commission, about 67,000 small and medium-sized enterprises above designated size closed down. The number of small and medium-sized enterprises in textile industry represented by labor-intensive industries has exceeded 1 10,000, and more than two-thirds of textile enterprises will face reshuffle or reorganization. Only the main business cost of industrial enterprises above designated size in Zhejiang Province has accounted for 87.6% of the income, up 0.3 percentage points year-on-year; The enterprise financing prosperity index fell into the "recession" range, which was 98.5 in the second quarter, down 22 points year-on-year, and 22.3% of SMEs felt financing difficulties; Entrepreneur confidence index and business prosperity index decreased to 122.4 and1310.5 respectively, down by 22.7 and 23.3 points respectively, both lower than the national average.

3. Performance of related industries

Due to insufficient demand and overproduction, in the first half of 2008, the export of billet and rough forgings in the Pan-Pearl River Delta region was 53 1.9 tons, down by 99.9%. Steel exports were 3.332 million tons, down by 25.2%; Aluminum exports were 453,000 tons, down10.5%; Cement exports reached 858,000 tons, down by 20.3%; The export of chemical fertilizers was 2.879 million tons, and the growth rate slowed down from 1.3 times in the same period last year to 14.8%. The export of agricultural products was US$ 5.08 billion, up by 12.4%, down by 6.6 percentage points compared with the same period of last year. In terms of imports, the main performances are as follows: 30,000 cars were imported, up by 62.7%, and 654.38+0.7 billion US dollars, up by 79.8%; The import of copper ore and its concentrate was 847,000 tons, an increase of 571%; Imports of agricultural products reached US$ 6.54 billion, an increase of 52.8%; The import of manganese ore and its concentrate was 6.5438+0.27 million tons, an increase of 27.5%; The import of iron ore and its concentrate was 22.483 million tons, an increase of 65.438+09.8%; Imports of refined oil were 57 1. 1 10,000 tons, an increase of 13.6%.

Around September, under the financial tsunami, there were no eggs left in real estate, steel and related industries. The long-term national downturn in the real estate market will not be discussed here.

Since 65438+ 10, domestic steel and related industries have suffered a total loss. In Hebei, a big steel province, more than 40% of small steel mills closed down, iron ore enterprises generally closed down, and the backlog of ore dyed the port red. Due to weak demand, these high-priced imported raw materials will inevitably take a long time to digest. Moreover, how long will the industry lose money? Is unknown. Related industries, such as Beijing's hardware and building materials market, are very different from those before the Olympics, as well as the real estate industry, and the sales situation has not shown signs of recovery until today.

4. Performance of economic and social impact

Similarly, the manufacturing crisis has had a serious negative impact on the financial system, the capital market, and the development of transportation and service industries.

First of all, talk about the relationship between finance, capital and enterprises. Any enterprise must have strong enough cash flow, and a mature enterprise will not necessarily die without a bank. However, the development of enterprises in China has its own obvious characteristics. The relationship between enterprises and financial institutions (including financial institutions or individuals) is the most subtle, which constitutes the special relationship between financial institutions, capital markets and enterprises. This is reflected in two aspects: first, there is no industrial development without borrowing, enterprises basically have no savings, and bosses dare to borrow as much money as they have; Second, almost every boss has a soft spot for capital operation and a special complex for IPO listing (4), but he pays too much attention to the performance of return and neglects refined management.

Secondly, traffic. At present, enterprises engaged in freight and logistics at home and abroad are showing signs of recession or bankruptcy. This trend is also manifested in passenger transport. From a recent incomplete list of some closed enterprises in China, it is found that at least 30 large and medium-sized international freight or logistics companies have closed down, and more than 100 small and medium-sized enterprises have gone bankrupt. In fact, according to the author's investigation, domestic freight logistics enterprises, mainly small and medium-sized enterprises, have begun to lose money or are on the verge of bankruptcy; Foreign-related transportation and port operations are even more jittery, and related small and medium-sized enterprises frequently close down; In the first three quarters of 2008, the passenger and cargo turnover of air transport in China decreased by at least 5% on average.

Let's talk about the serious impact on various basic service industries. At present, not only the chain commercial and retail markets are affected, but also the catering and hotel industries. Yang Yan, chairman of the Hong Kong Catering Management Association, said frankly that the catering industry will become the next "hardest hit" of the "bankruptcy tide", and the business in the coming year is not optimistic.

Based on the comparative analysis of domestic overall performance and relevant economic operation data, it can be seen that the behavioral pathogen of China enterprises' "processing" attribute has deteriorated: once the demand of importing countries decreases, the crisis will break out rapidly. Even the Pan-Pearl River Delta region, a "manufacturing hotspot" that once made Chinese people extremely proud, has inevitably verified the fate of "processing to get rich in the end": under the general situation of the world economic crisis, China's enterprise society with such industrial structure quality is bound to be the most developed and the most injured.

Second, change for the sake of change.

Basic point: industries should be transformed and enterprises should manage the transformation.

On the whole, the author believes that from the perspective of economic development, the United States, which pursues the principles of free market and Keynesianism, eventually led to the Wall Street storm because of the complicated government decrees and many financial derivatives, and its impact on its real economy may be indirect; However, the laissez-faire regulatory environment and China's excessive dependence on foreign trade, as well as the current enterprise crisis, are the essential pathogens of the real economy that have been hidden for a long time, and eventually erupt in a volcano, which is a preliminary sign that an economic crisis may occur in society.

It can be said that compared with the sharp differences in industrial distribution and operation mode between large enterprises and small and medium-sized enterprises in developed countries, small and medium-sized enterprises and large enterprises in China are almost at the same level of industry and development: what large enterprises can do, small and medium-sized enterprises can do, even a single private enterprise can do. This inevitable crisis warns us that there is an urgent need for in-depth change and transformation at different levels.

1. Industrial restructuring

However, the export growth rate of traditional bulk commodities, which accounts for the largest proportion, has generally declined, and the import growth of mineral resources is unfavorable; It is worth mentioning that in the first half of 2008, the export of mechanical and electrical products in the Pan-Pearl River Delta region was US$ 654.38+053.22 billion, an increase of 265.438+0.6%, accounting for 65% of the total export; The export of high-tech products (crossing with mechanical and electrical products) was $78.29 billion, up by 2 1.9%, accounting for 33.2% of the total export. This shows that in the overall situation of shrinking exports, mechanical and electrical products and high-tech products have maintained a steady growth of more than 20%. From the correlation analysis, we can see that the development of foreign trade in the Pan-Pearl River Delta region of globrand.com itself presents a very unbalanced distribution state, and at the same time, it is also because many provinces (regions) are not highly dependent on foreign trade. It can be seen that enterprises in China have not yet collapsed to the desperate situation of "a crushing defeat", but the income from general processing trade accounts for a huge proportion of GDP, which fully reflects the urgency of industrial structure transformation of domestic and regional manufacturing industries.

Of course, we should also face up to the challenges in the process of industrial upgrading and transformation. Mainly: first, how to digest and activate the overcapacity problem in labor-intensive or primary processing departments? Second, how to solve the problem of low added value caused by technology research and development (5)? Third, how to integrate industries and optimize enterprise management? Fourth, how to comprehensively improve product quality, cost management, production efficiency and market operation ability, so as to enhance the competitiveness in the international market?

2. It is necessary to increase both domestic demand and domestic sales.

Although overproduction leads to the decline of domestic prices of commodities and related products, it is only superficial and temporary. The negative impact is not conducive to the sustainable production of enterprises, which will inevitably force many enterprises to reduce production and lead to the bankruptcy of a large number of small and medium-sized enterprises; At the same time, it will inevitably bring certain urban unemployment and agricultural economic pressure. Therefore, from top to bottom, we must face up to and properly solve the impact of the manufacturing crisis on the economy and society in time.

On the one hand, the central government should adopt a proactive fiscal policy and a moderately loose monetary policy, such as canceling loan restrictions, increasing support for small and medium-sized enterprises, supporting high-tech industrialization and encouraging technological progress; And through relevant economic policies, effectively increase the income of urban and rural residents, and effectively increase domestic demand through various measures. Fortunately, at the time of writing this article, the central government has announced ten macro measures to inject 4 trillion yuan.

At the same time, local governments should try their best to help enterprises get rid of the predicament of overproduction and its later development. For example, the Guangdong Provincial Department of Foreign Trade and Economic Cooperation recently issued "Guiding Opinions on Promoting Foreign Investment and Processing Trade Enterprises to Expand Domestic Sales", proposing five major policies and measures, giving financial incentives to large domestic taxpayers and foreign investment and processing trade enterprises that establish domestic brands, and encouraging more export enterprises to move to the domestic market. In view of the channel and brand problems that enterprises are worried about, it is clearly pointed out that foreign-invested and processing trade enterprises should be guided and encouraged to produce marketable products in the domestic market through general trade, and gradually establish domestic marketing and logistics systems to build domestic brands; It will also organize and guide enterprises to participate in domestic exhibitions and provide a good display and service platform for export products to enter the domestic market.

On the other hand, relevant enterprises should fully tap their own capabilities and increase their control over the market. For example, "channel is king" is always the lifeblood of home appliance manufacturers. In today's increasingly diluted industrial profits, in order to cope with the strong asking price of home appliance chain giants, manufacturers adopt marketing strategies such as building their own channels, changing channels or developing their own terminal markets, which is a positive move for the industry to change its market model. This not only requires manufacturers to increase costs, do a good job in sales team management, but also avoids the traditional mode of "wholesale at different levels" to ensure that the final consumers get benefits.

3. Need to change the thinking of business owners: melodramatic, emotional or heartless?

At present, there are at least two core problems in corporate society in China:

(1) Low-end industrial structure and solidified backward operation mode.

This includes two types of enterprises. The first category is coastal enterprises that have moved to the mainland geographically, without changing the industrial level and management mode; The second category is mainland enterprises that learn from coastal enterprises, and the industrial level is relatively low.

(2) China's highly speculative enterprise society "created" the "four unlike" China boss.

As an active subject of enterprise society, China boss is neither an investor nor an entrepreneur. This is like the boss of a well-known private enterprise in China saying, "When I am an enterprise, I want to raise the enterprise as a son and sell it as a pig." It fully embodies the extreme self-interest essential motivation and too short-sighted business vision of "only seeking merit, not giving up without fault".

Inevitably, once a crisis occurs, the market is often "overwhelmed" and talents "fall apart". The previous Kelon crisis of Gu, and the recent Sanlu and Mengniu crises in Niu Gensheng are typical examples.

4. The way out for enterprise management reform: enterprise marketization and management socialization.

Due to the brain pathogen of the actual controller's business philosophy, even with the participation of new enterprises or investors, or new management (mainly professional managers), the fate of enterprises cannot be fundamentally changed. It can also be said that the boss culture is not necessarily wrong, but the idea of forming the boss culture. This proves that the change of management mode of all subjects in China enterprise society will have the same direction in the future: management socialization.

What is "management socialization"? Simply put, it is a very important contract entrustment management in the reform of property rights system. Property owners no longer manage enterprises and assets personally, but rely on and entrust a team of professional managers to manage them. In management practice, with the intervention of professional management team and the overall improvement of organizational ability, management objectives are no longer regarded as optional indicators in specific strategic implementation and target management activities, but a comprehensive performance index evaluation system must be established first, which must highly emphasize management objectives and ensure long-term benefits. The management objectives carried by this evaluation system are not only the symbol of enterprise marketization and management socialization, but also the basic carrier for enterprises to fulfill their sense of social responsibility, and the foundation for long-term survival and development of enterprises. Among them, it needs to be pointed out that to correctly understand the "sense of social responsibility" is not just as simple as donating money and "giving love" to the society.

Since the state-owned enterprise itself is actually a contract entrusted management, I will start here. For a long time, the government has not solved the problem of performance appraisal centered on authority, responsibility and interests, and artificially put economic indicators in the first place in the assessment of state-owned enterprise operators. This short-sighted attribute always leads to the unreasonable comprehensive evaluation mechanism of managers. Because the pursuit of economic interests should not harm social interests, too much emphasis on economic indicators will inevitably breed economic plunder; Paying attention to high returns and the inevitable corruption of managers are like twin brothers. This is not only the fundamental reason for the state-owned enterprises in China to move towards industry monopoly and market monopoly, but also the main internal threat for the state-owned enterprises to collapse at the peak stage due to the intervention of foreign capital. In fact, the problems that non-state-owned enterprise bosses need to pay attention to are essentially the same as those of state-owned enterprise bosses, which is why private enterprises will inevitably have the disadvantages of pan-state-owned enterprises when they develop to a certain stage. It can be seen that the boss should be far-sighted, stand in the perspective of long-term development, actively choose the road of standardized management, and actively pursue the profit target that all management indicators meet the requirements.

At present, if we don't use the crisis to fundamentally treat pathogens, change the industrial structure as soon as possible, and realize the socialization of enterprise management, enterprises will never get the opportunity of long-term survival and development.

We will wait and see how China's corporate society can spend the winter like Penguin's small and medium-sized enterprises. How will large enterprises like polar bears cope with the scorching heat?

(1) The data in this article are all from the government. The actual situation may be worse than that.

(2) refers to nine provinces and regions in the Pan-Pearl River Delta.

(3) China Customs statistics.

(4) Generally speaking, small and medium-sized enterprises listed through IPO can't meet the conditions for listing. For example, the net asset value has not reached the threshold for listing, and they must rely on the capital investment of social investment institutions to successfully achieve listing. Therefore, the conditions of IPO listed companies are more relaxed than those of non-IPO listed companies. It will inevitably bring some blind listing phenomena.

(5) There is a big gap between developed countries and emerging market countries. According to the report of Korea Industrial Research Institute, in 2007, the technological gap between Korean and Chinese enterprises was 3.8 years in manufacturing, 4. 1 year in steel and textile, and 3.4 years in electronics.