Is the EU not playing? "Rear Road" Geometry of New Energy Vehicles …

As the birthplace of the automobile industry, Europe may never have thought that it would become an "underachiever" in the new energy era.

If you fall behind, you should catch up. This is our way of thinking.

Recently, however, the European Commission is evaluating a proposal that classifies lithium, the key material of power batteries, as a material harmful to human health. If the proposal is passed, it will directly affect the lithium battery industry and even the new energy automobile industry.

Such extreme movements were dubbed by netizens as "I don't play with tables."

Jokes are jokes. What is the strength of new energy vehicle enterprises in China? What impact will the EU's move have? What opportunities can we tap from it? Might as well comb it carefully with the author.

Compared with the development time of Japanese cars and German cars for hundreds of years, the research and development history of fuel vehicles in China is only a few decades.

It is really difficult not only to break the technical blockade of Europe, America, Japan and South Korea, but also to reach the same level of quality. China has been waiting for the opportunity to overtake through new energy technology corners.

1995, founded by BYD. In 2000, BYD independently developed a lithium battery and applied it to smart phones, and then applied it to electric bicycles. 20 1 1, Contemporary Ampere Technology Co., Ltd. was established. In 2020, BYD blade battery came out. In 2022, Contemporary Ampere Technology Co., Ltd. released Kirin battery.

From scratch, from scratch, domestic enterprises have continuously achieved technological breakthroughs in the field of lithium batteries, and they have been able to meet foreign manufacturers hand in hand, and the opportunity to overtake in corners has finally come.

In 2009, the state promulgated the detailed rules for the management of new energy vehicle production enterprises and product access, and the government gave real money to encourage enterprises to develop new energy vehicles.

At that time, there were not many enterprises committed to the development of new energy vehicles, and only the means of cheating subsidies were constantly innovating.

However, the horse bones that entered the city before will eventually usher in a swift horse. The industries such as battery, motor, electric control, electrolyte, anode and cathode materials have gradually developed from chaos to order.

In 20 18, the state took the initiative to introduce Tesla, which forced China new energy automobile enterprises to innovate constantly.

Domestic brands also live up to expectations, releasing vitality under pressure, and finally giving play to the advantages of technology patents and supply chains.

In June 2022, the production and sales of new energy vehicles in China were close to 500,000, which continued to maintain the momentum of rapid growth.

Why do we attach so much importance to new energy vehicles?

One is energy security.

China is a big energy importer, but in recent years, the number of automobiles has increased rapidly, which leads to the widening oil gap. In order to leave enough energy for industrial manufacturing, it is necessary to develop new energy vehicles.

Second, it has accumulated sufficient advantages.

The cost of photovoltaic power generation and wind power generation in China has been as low as 0.4 yuan/kWh and 0.6 yuan/kWh, and the world's first UHV transmission technology has supported the development of new energy vehicles.

The United States ranks first in the world in oil and natural gas production, and the problem of energy shortage has not really come to them. Moreover, the United States is vast and sparsely populated, and locals prefer large-displacement fuel vehicles.

Therefore, Tesla's focus in the United States is actually intelligence, conveying scientific and technological progress and fashion avant-garde, which is similar to Apple's trend culture. It is said that the code of S series exceeds 400 million lines. In the era of software-defined cars, many brands can only compete with them.

As for Europe, energy is extremely dependent on Russia and the Middle East, and politicians have gone to the extreme of environmentalism for votes, and want to completely stop selling fuel vehicles in 2030-2040.

Embarrassed, Europe was not prepared in advance.

Luxury brands such as Mercedes-Benz, BMW and Audi have not mastered the core technology, and they want to expect brand premium. The result can only be that high-end cars are not as good as Tesla, and the price/performance ratio is not as good as BYD.

Faced with this situation, Europe now has only two ways:

First, directly import new energy vehicles;

The second is to use China's parts on its own production platform, or to purchase patent authorization. For example, the whole vehicle technology of Skoda new energy vehicle in Germany was bought from BYD.

The former is equivalent to directly helping foreign brands make money, while the latter provides opportunities for foreign new energy vehicle technology upgrading.

From the perspective of globalization, there is nothing wrong.

The new energy automobile industry has virtually become a strategic layout for China and the United States to jointly strangle European, Japanese and Korean automobile enterprises.

The United States has political and technological advantages, and China has a vast market with a population of 654.38+0.4 billion, which has the cost advantage brought by the most complete industrial system in the world.

Europe, Japan and South Korea have not accumulated new technology because they have been lying on the patent of fuel vehicles for a long time to make money. Now forcibly entering the new energy car track has completely failed to keep up.

The EU must be in a hurry now.

Therefore, the proposal of throwing out lithium batteries is not really "throwing away the table", but trying to limit the share of Tesla and China brands in the European market as much as possible.

Domestic production of new energy vehicles is the EU's extravagant hope.

However, if this proposal is really passed, I am afraid it will only be more conducive to the development of new energy automobile enterprises in China and the United States.

First, if Europe directly abandons lithium batteries and uses other new energy sources (such as hydrogen energy), it will take a long time for technology research and development to produce products. During this time, the vacated market will definitely be seized;

Second, in the case that China's new energy car companies have monopolized the market, especially 90% of lithium batteries in Europe have to be imported from China, the cost increase brought by the proposal can only be borne by European car companies alone, but it will restrict the development of their new energy cars;

Third, China's new energy automobile companies have started research and development of new technologies, such as hybrid vehicles. If Europe finally intends to return to fuel vehicles (not impossible), it will find that this road may have been surpassed by China's late-comer advantage.

However, from a positive point of view, the EU's move may force the standardized development of the local lithium battery recycling industry and promote the improvement of the power battery industry chain.

As we all know, waste batteries are very polluted.

Especially the power battery contains a lot of heavy metals, electrolytes, solvents and various organic auxiliary materials. Improper treatment will seriously pollute soil and water sources, and also produce toxic gas emissions.

At present, there are still a series of problems such as immature business model and lack of effective collection channels.

In addition, with the increase of downstream new energy automobile enterprises, the supply of lithium, nickel and cobalt as raw materials for power batteries is tight, which is frequently pushed to sky-high prices, and these precious metals can be recovered from retired lithium batteries.

Power battery recycling is becoming the next way out.

If you ask what is the fastest price increase in the past two years? Lithium, nickel and cobalt must be on the list.

Since 202 1, the battery-grade lithium carbonate has soared from 50,000 yuan/ton to 478,000 yuan/ton, an increase of nearly ten times. Metal nickel and cobalt have also won the titles of "devil nickel" and "grandmother cobalt" because of the sharp rise in prices.

These are all raw materials for power batteries, and the high price is related to the accelerated development of new energy vehicles and the great increase in demand for power batteries.

In this context, the recycling of power batteries is the only way, otherwise new energy vehicles will be no different from fuel vehicles. After all, these mineral resources, like fossil fuels, will eventually be exhausted.

Some organizations predict that by 2030, the number of power batteries to be recycled will reach 2.37 million tons, and the market scale will exceed 1000 billion.

In the face of the "100 billion blue ocean", entrants flocked.

According to statistics, there are more than 50,000 power battery recycling enterprises in China, and more than 30,000 have been newly established in the past year, accounting for more than 60%.

Take GEM as an example. In 20 15, the company cut into the field of power battery recycling. In 202 1 year, the revenue of power battery recycling business was 1.5 1 billion yuan, up by 6 1.63% year-on-year.

On June 28, Meg's wholly-owned subsidiary, Power Regeneration, held a signing ceremony for the introduction of war investment and mixed reform. More than ten strategic investors, including Wuhan Xinzhou State-owned Investment Platform and China Investment Corporation, participated in the investment to help them continue to develop the power battery recycling industry.

With GEM, it is the Bopp cycle of Contemporary Ampere Technology Co., Ltd.. 20 13, before the start of power battery recycling in China, Contemporary Anpu Technology Co., Ltd. acquired Bupu and cut into the track of power battery recycling.

In recent years, with the support of contemporary Ampere Technology Co., Ltd., concave and convex have developed rapidly.

On April 29th, Zeng Yuqun said at the performance conference of Contemporary Ampere Technology Co., Ltd. that the recovery rate of lithium has reached 965,438+0%, while the recovery rate of nickel and cobalt has reached 99%.

In addition, battery companies such as LG, Samsung, Guo Xuan Hi-Tech and Yiwei Lithium Energy have also entered the power battery recycling industry.

From the perspective of attracting investment, this "100 billion blue ocean" also provides local governments with the opportunity to "overtake in corners".

The new energy automobile industry is in the ascendant, but the pattern with Tesla and BYD as oligarchs has been formed. It is very hopeless for local governments to "throw money" into "a new force to build cars"

The industrial chain of new energy vehicles is so long that there is always a link suitable for you. Why focus on vehicle manufacturing?

Strong scientific research strength can make chips, power batteries can be laid out when there are mines at home, and parts can be made when the industrial chain is complete. Now there is a new track for battery recycling, which makes the whole industrial chain form a closed loop, and the boundary between upstream and downstream has become increasingly blurred.

The track is about to break out, and practitioners are full of confidence in the market prospects, but on the other hand, the industry does not seem to be really ready.

Up to now, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology has announced the list of three batches of enterprises that meet the Industry Standards and Conditions for Comprehensive Utilization of Waste Power Batteries of New Energy Vehicles, and gradually expanded from more than 20 to 47.

The "regular army" that has entered the white list has been blessed by policies and recognized by the industry, but it still has to compete with "small workshops".

According to statistics, in 20021year, only 10%-20% of power batteries were recycled through formal channels, and most of the others flowed to informal channels.

Not subject to environmental protection, safety and other standards, "small workshops" have lower recycling costs, so they have the upper hand in grabbing goods. But the struggle between "regular army" and "small workshop" is not only a competition for profits, but also a harm to the environment.

Therefore, with full confidence in the future, more and more large-scale "regular troops" are needed to take over the business of power battery recycling.

What the government should do is not only to seize the opportunity to lay out the industry, but also to exert efforts on the policy side to manage the power battery throughout its life cycle, create development opportunities for truly compliant enterprises, and let the industry establish a healthy and orderly ecology from the beginning.

Of course, since it is a new industry, it means information asymmetry, and even people in the industry may cross the river by feeling the stones, not to mention others.

Not afraid of problems, sum up experience and adjust policies, the industry will be standardized and will continue to develop.

In the field of power battery recycling, I believe China can also become a leader, which not only realizes the closed loop of the whole industrial chain of new energy vehicles, but also makes "biochemical recycling materials" no longer a specialty of the "four tiankeng".