At present, the liquidity problem of commercial banks, analysis, how to achieve?

(A) financial restructuring-comprehensive reform of the banking industry is the internal reason for the excess liquidity of commercial banks.

First of all, in the process of economic transformation in China, the modern financial organization system replaced the traditional financial organization system, which led to the emergence of the deposit gap. After the promulgation of a series of financial laws, such as the People's Bank of China Law and the Commercial Bank Law, from 65438 to 0995, the modern financial organization system in China was basically established. However, China's traditional financial system is compatible with the planned economy. Under this system, the specialized banks are all economic departments directly under the State Council, performing different functions and undertaking different loan businesses according to the government's plan. The state mainly adopts "credit plan" and "cash plan" to allocate funds and implement financial management. Macroscopically, according to the problem of "loan-deposit = cash", these three subjects constitute the main subjects of bank balance sheets. If the loan is greater than the deposit, it is said that there is a "loan difference", indicating insufficient liquidity; If the deposit is greater than the loan, it is called "deposit difference", which means excess liquidity. One of the differences between the modern financial organization system established after 1995 and the financial system under the traditional planned economy is the establishment of a two-tier structure consisting of the central bank that implements macro-control and financial supervision and various commercial financial institutions that provide financial products and services. Under this new pattern, the "base currency" composed of currency issuance and reserve deposits deposited by various financial institutions is the core of the central bank's monetary regulation. However, reserve deposits, which constitute the main body of the base currency, are part of the deposits absorbed by commercial banks. It means that commercial banks can't use all the deposits they absorb to issue loans, so there is a deposit gap.

(2) The formulation of relevant financial laws determines that the inevitable occurrence of deposit difference is the institutional reason for the excess liquidity of commercial banks.

In order to maintain the stability of the financial system and protect the interests of depositors, the second paragraph of Article 39 of China's Law on Commercial Banks, which was implemented in 199 1, stipulates that the ratio of assets to liabilities that commercial banks should abide by when lending: "The ratio of loan balance to deposit balance shall not exceed 75%". In other words, China's commercial banking system should maintain a deposit difference of not less than 25%. However, according to statistics, the loan-to-deposit ratio in China did not fall below 75% until 2004 (76.4% in 2003 and 73.8% in 2004). In fact, the ratio of loans to deposits is a universal rule in the global financial community. The following table compares China with loan-to-deposit ratio in other countries in the world:

Table: Proportion of deposits and loans in major emerging market countries, the United States and Japan in 2006

country

China

United States of America

Japan

India

Thailand

Brazil

Deposit/loan

66.58%

64.24%

64.05%

63.89%

65.36%

66.53%

Data source: The author collated IMF data and annual financial reports, bank reports and statistical yearbooks of various countries.

It can be seen that the decline of loan-to-deposit ratio in China's banking industry is not uncommon among similar emerging countries. In fact, China's deposit gap is still slightly higher than that of the United States, Japanese and other emerging countries. Therefore, the deposit gap in the banking industry is not a crisis signal, but an inevitable phenomenon in the process of China's financial system's transformation to modernization and internationalization.

(C) The strengthening of risk management of modern commercial banks is the driving force for the excess liquidity of banks.

Under the traditional financial organization system, the central bank takes the plan as the core and controls the loan scale by issuing indicators, thus controlling the operation of the whole macro-economy. For a long period of time, in order to achieve rapid economic growth and social stability in the process of promoting marketization, the performance evaluation of commercial bank loans by the central bank is not linked with risk or income, but only with the amount of loans, which makes the large-scale lending of commercial banks the main reason for several economic overheating in the 1980s and 1990s. From 65438 to 0997, the People's Bank of China promulgated the Core Principles of Effective Banking Supervision and the Notice on Improving the Management of Loan Scale of State-owned Commercial Banks, and gradually implemented the credit risk management of commercial banks. In 2002, China's banking industry fully implemented five-level loan classification management and strengthened loan risk review. At the same time, after the shareholding system reform, commercial banks have become independent carriers of property rights, bearing the risks and losses of loans by themselves, and the "national credit" under the planned economy system no longer exists, which makes commercial banks adhere to the principle of prudence in issuing loans, leading to a decline in loan scale.

(D) The multiple deposit creation caused by the continuous inflow of foreign capital and the crowding-out effect on domestic credit funds are the inducing reasons for the current excess liquidity of commercial banks.

From 2002 to 2004, the annual scale of foreign investment in China has always exceeded 50 billion US dollars, and in 2006 it exceeded 1 trillion US dollars. With the increasing scale of foreign capital inflow, the crowding-in effect of foreign capital on China's domestic funds has gradually turned into crowding-out effect, which has attracted the attention of many scholars, such as Jiang Xiaojuan of China Academy of Social Sciences (2006). The inflow of foreign capital not only directly increases the external sources of funds for enterprises and then replaces bank loans, but also increases the liquidity of foreign exchange deposits in the financial system because the central bank frequently intervenes in the foreign exchange market to stabilize the RMB exchange rate, thus aggravating the pressure of excessive deposits of commercial banks in China.

(V) The rapid diversion of bank assets caused by the development of the capital market is the external reason for the excess liquidity of commercial banks.

For a long time, indirect financing of commercial banks has been the main channel for enterprises to obtain financing. With the development of the stock market and bond market, some high-quality enterprises have been able to raise funds through the capital market, and bank loans have gradually been replaced by direct financing. In 2006, the total amount of stock financing in China was 224.6 billion yuan, an increase of 1 13.3% over 2005. According to the latest data from June to September this year, the total amount of stock market financing reached 356.8 billion yuan, which was 1.59 times of the whole year of 2006. Corporate bond financing totaled 226.6 billion yuan, up 12.74% year-on-year. With the development of capital market, the whole financial assets have developed from single bank assets to marketization and diversification, and bank loans are no longer scarce resources.

(VI) The serious shortage of financial innovation is the direct cause of the current excess liquidity of commercial banks.

For a long time, China's commercial bank loans are mainly traditional project loans and working capital loans. In the case of narrow financing channels for enterprises, it seems not difficult to issue loans under the concept of risk control with comprehensive income as the source of repayment. However, when the financing channels of enterprises are gradually widened, the traditional borrowing thinking obviously lags behind the needs of economic development. At this time, if the innovation of credit products is insufficient, it is impossible to seek new credit substitution varieties and loan growth methods. If capital products and technological innovation are weak, and policy restrictions such as separate operation lead to limited channels for capital utilization and low efficiency of capital operation, then when deposits increase substantially, excess liquidity is inevitable.

Third, the potential risk analysis of bank excess liquidity-how do we understand it?

(A) the profit margins of commercial banks have been greatly squeezed, and the pressure of survival has increased.

A large number of deposits are stranded in the interbank market or the central bank and bond market, which will greatly reduce the bank's return on funds. For example, China's one-year money market interest rate once fell to 1. 1%, far below the bank's capital cost. At the end of 2006, the loan-to-deposit ratio (loan/deposit) of China Commercial Bank in a broad sense has dropped to about 63. 14%. Excluding the statutory reserve of 8.5%, about 24.5% of the deposit funds have been invested in the following assets: bonds with a maturity of more than one year, money market instruments with a maturity of less than one year and excess reserves of the central bank. It is estimated that the profit loss of commercial banks alone will reach 28.639 billion yuan.

Due to the trend of demand deposits in savings deposits and corporate deposits, the average deposit cost of commercial banks has increased significantly. For example, at the end of July 2005, the local and foreign currency deposits of financial institutions were 942,429,543.8 billion yuan, of which time deposits were 3.21563.9 billion yuan, accounting for 3.4/kloc-0.2%, up 3 3. 15 percentage points year-on-year and 3.26 percentage points higher than the beginning of 2005. It is estimated that the average deposit cost of the four major state-owned banks has increased from 1.25%- 1.35% to 1.27%- 1.38% due to the normalization of deposits, and the overall deposit cost of commercial banks has increased to 5.42 billion yuan to 8654.38+0.3. However, the increase in these deposit costs is difficult to generate income through loan placement. Since September 2, 2005, commercial banks have changed the annual settlement of demand deposit interest to quarterly settlement. In this way, commercial banks are in a very passive position in the interest rate pricing of loans, especially high-quality loans, and the pricing of deposit interest rates is also in a very passive position in the highly competitive deposit market. After rough calculation, we found that the profit loss caused by excessive deposits of China commercial banks was at least 564.5 billion yuan, with the highest loss of 654.38+045.07 billion yuan, while the four major state-owned commercial banks lost at least 423.5 billion yuan, with the highest loss of 654.38+008.9 billion yuan.

(2) The operational risks of commercial banks are further enlarged, which may even lead to a serious credit crisis.

In order to reduce the losses caused by excess deposits, banks will be forced to invest funds in high-risk enterprises and investment projects, which will lead to over-investment of enterprises and greatly reduce the return on capital and the ability of enterprises to repay capital and interest. The increasing credit supply of banks will also contribute to structural problems such as low-level repeated economic expansion, overheated investment and repeated construction. Therefore, a large increase in loans in the short term to increase bank income and solve the problem of excess deposits will inevitably lead to a new round of investment mania, which will lead to more serious overcapacity and further increase the credit risk of bank loans.

During 2002-2006, the one-year deposit-loan spread of China commercial banks was higher than that of American banks, but its net interest margin income was much lower than that of American banks. An important reason is that the non-performing loan ratio of China commercial banks is much higher than that of American banks. Ernst & Young estimated that the bad debts of China commercial banks in 2006 exceeded 965,438+065,438+0 billion US dollars (about 7 trillion yuan), far exceeding the level of 654,380+064 billion US dollars officially announced by China in March 2006. Among them, the non-performing loans of the four major state-owned commercial banks reached $358 billion, almost three times the official figure. Other consulting institutions believe that the non-performing loans of China commercial banks in 2006 were at least between 300 billion and 500 billion dollars. As nearly 50% of the loan funds of China Commercial Bank are in the hands of less than 1% of the big customers, the average loan amount of each big customer is about 500 million yuan. Excess bank deposits will lead to the further concentration of loans from commercial banks to large customers, which will lead to the accumulation of bank risks, and finally banks will pay for large enterprises.

Excess liquidity will also promote the formation of asset price bubbles. Driven by revaluation and wealth effect, the lender's credit will be overvalued, which makes credit review relatively easy, and potential borrowers with low credit ratings can easily obtain loans, thus bringing potential risks. Once the asset price changes reversely, it will directly lead to the debtor's assets shrinking, the debtor's credit status deteriorating, and the debt relationship interconnected, forming a chain reaction of debt risk, which will lead to more serious credit risk. When the asset market accounts for a fairly high proportion of the total economic output, the asset bubble may burst, leading to the bankruptcy of a large number of debtors. Through the correlation of credit risk, it is easy to produce a serious banking crisis.

(c) A large amount of liquidity accumulates asset price bubbles, which leads to the indirect influence of the capital market on the commercial banking system.

In the case of excess liquidity, commercial bank funds will also be forced to bypass policy restrictions and enter the capital market in various forms. However, for a developing country like China, where the capital market system is far from perfect and the non-performing loans are still severe, rashly pushing commercial bank funds into the stock market is not only detrimental to the law of survival of the fittest in the stock market, but also highly speculative China stock market will induce a new round of non-performing loans for commercial banks.

4. Policy suggestions on excess liquidity of banks-how do we operate?

At present, China's banking system has abundant funds, but the growth of investment and consumption demand relative to savings is not strong, and the insufficient use of funds has affected the profitability of commercial banks to some extent. However, the excess liquidity measured by "deposit difference" has its unique decision-making basis and inevitability under the background of China's transitional economy. Its appearance is closely related to the establishment and improvement of deposit quasi-deposit system, the strengthening of loan risk management and the adjustment of bank loan structure in China's financial system reform, and it also appears with the change of government financial role and the adjustment and upgrading of industrial structure in China's economic structure adjustment. Therefore, maintaining high liquidity in the banking industry at this stage will not lead to the expectation of economic crisis. It is important to effectively expand the channels of capital utilization on the basis of avoiding blind investment and prevent the impact of high liquidity on economic instability. Specific policy recommendations are as follows:

(1) Promote the reform of the exchange rate system and foreign exchange management system, and gradually realize the marketization of the exchange rate.

Using the market mechanism to regulate the supply and demand of the foreign exchange market can make the central bank get rid of passively issuing a large amount of base money in order to maintain exchange rate stability, thus shrinking the total amount of market money and effectively solving the problem of excess liquidity in the banking system and even the entire financial system; The change from compulsory settlement and sale of foreign exchange to voluntary settlement and sale of foreign exchange will change foreign exchange from centralized state reserves to decentralized private reserves, and reduce the liquidity pressure of the banking system. In addition, the adjustment of trade and foreign investment policies is conducive to expanding domestic demand and achieving a relative balance of international payments, thus solving the excess liquidity.

(2) Continuously improve the comprehensive operation level of commercial banks and increase the breadth and depth of financial innovation.

Facing the problem of excess liquidity, only by constantly improving the comprehensive management level can commercial banks improve their competitiveness in the process of serving the development of enterprises. Because some high-quality enterprises have good reputation, financing is more convenient and the cost is lower. Therefore, the financial products and services used by commercial banks for many years can no longer meet the needs of customer development. In this regard, it is imperative to first promote the all-round development of financial products and work hard on product innovation. It is necessary to make full use of the opportunity of the current national comprehensive financial reform experiment, actively develop financial products and tools, and develop financial products in an all-round way in the order of general products first, derivative products first, and capital business first. At the same time, it is also necessary to develop financial services that only focus on financing to a wide historical level, and strive to extend the tentacles of services to the whole process of enterprise management and provide a package of financial solutions for enterprises.

In addition, commercial banks should also intensify financial innovation, actively develop financial markets and develop a variety of financial investment tools. On the one hand, innovate the financial market, focus on expanding the capital market and train institutional investors to become the backbone of the capital market. While encouraging commercial banks' compliance funds to enter the capital market, we should establish a diversified market allocation mechanism to allocate financial resources more effectively; On the other hand, innovative financial products will transfer excess liquidity to new investment methods to avoid capital market bubbles. For example, create money market funds, structured deposits and other products to connect different markets, and link deposits with bond market and money market income. In addition, we should vigorously develop wealth management business, which can effectively divert all kinds of deposits, thus greatly reducing the liquidity pressure of the banking industry and breaking the traditional deposit and loan business model of existing commercial banks.

(3) Accelerate the strategic adjustment of the credit structure and vigorously develop the customer base of small and medium-sized enterprises.

In the case that big companies, big customers and banks are gradually drifting away from each other, and their dependence on banks is decreasing, from the perspective of commercial banks, it is necessary to adjust their development strategies, adjust their credit business structure, and focus on developing small and medium-sized enterprise customers. The development of small and medium-sized customers in commercial banks can increase bank income, avoid excessive concentration of funds and assets in a few large enterprises and reduce dependence on a few enterprises. At the same time, the market space of small and medium-sized enterprises is huge, and the development of small and medium-sized enterprises can open up new market space, enrich and improve customer groups, thus becoming an important profit growth point for banks in the future. On the issue of developing small and medium-sized customers, first, reform the credit model, adjust the credit process, adjust the enterprise audit method, repayment ability analysis method and guarantee method according to the characteristics of small and medium-sized enterprises, and improve the service efficiency for small and medium-sized enterprise customers; Second, according to the financial needs of small and medium-sized enterprises, constantly innovate product design. Different financial solutions should be formulated according to different types of SMEs.

5. Relationships to be dealt with to solve the problem of excess liquidity-how do we focus on the future?

To solve the problem of excess liquidity, commercial banks need to change their business models. For domestic commercial banks in the period of transformation and market development, the implementation of transformation is undoubtedly a huge challenge. Transformation needs new ideas and a good internal environment. The transformation itself is also facing challenges, and the relationship between various financial factors must be handled well in order to make a good transformation.

(1) Handle the relationship between current interests and long-term development.

To solve the problem of excess liquidity, the business structure of commercial banks needs to be greatly adjusted first. From the current path of transformation, it is very necessary to reduce the proportion of credit assets in the asset structure, reduce the proportion of credit business in the whole credit business and reduce the proportion of provident fund loans in the credit business. These businesses that need to be adjusted are part of the main income sources of commercial banks at present. Adjustment means that banks should reduce their traditional businesses with high profitability, which will inevitably affect their current interests, but in the long run, they should reduce their dependence on traditional businesses and form a new profit model.

(B) handle the relationship between innovation and risk.

The transformation of business model needs new systems, new processes, new products and new service means. The key to transformation lies in financial innovation, but innovation has both the hope of success and the possibility of failure, and innovation also has risks. Comparatively speaking, the risk history of traditional business and traditional management is low. Therefore, it is necessary to encourage innovative behaviors that dare to take risks and form a corporate culture atmosphere that encourages innovation and tolerates failure.

(C) handle the contradiction between integrated management and decentralized management.

In order to meet the challenge of excess liquidity, commercial banks must provide value-added services to customers by using new channels and services such as capital market investment tools, financial derivatives and e-finance. However, in the current regulatory environment, strict separate management and strict restrictions on financial derivatives will pose great challenges to the transformation of commercial banks. Therefore, it is necessary to deal with the contradiction between comprehensive operation and separate operation, and encourage the relationship between bank innovation and strengthening supervision. Therefore, on the one hand, the comprehensive operation of commercial banks must be carried out within the scope permitted by law; On the other hand, the regulatory authorities should adapt to the development of the new economic situation, adopt internationally feasible methods, and steadily promote the legalization of mixed operation. In addition, we should consider the requirements of future integrated operation, risk prevention and the practice of international financial laws and regulations in legislation, and the legislation should be forward-looking.