How to realize 20% of new energy vehicle sales in 2025? Supply and demand two-way force is the key

A few days ago, China's new energy automobile industry, another programmatic document - "new energy automobile industry development plan" (2021-2035) (hereinafter referred to as "the plan") was released, "the plan" put forward to 2025, new energy automobile new car sales to reach 20% of the total new car sales of automobiles around.

From the time point of view, the current distance from 2025 there are 5 years, and during this period, China's new energy vehicle sales accounted for the need to rise from about 5% to 20% or so, the need to leap upward across a larger, how to achieve the goal of the industry in the next period of time has become an important task.

November 3, Industry and Information Technology Vice Minister Xin Guobin said at the State Council policy briefing, if the new energy vehicle market penetration rate of 5% this year to measure, the next five years, new energy vehicles to achieve sales accounted for 20% of the goal of the compound annual growth rate must reach more than 30%, the difficulty is great. He believes that in order to promote the realization of the 20% target, we need to learn from European countries, but also need to work in both directions, from the supply and demand sides to promote.

Photo: state news network

Is it difficult to achieve 20 percent of new energy vehicle sales in 2025?

Compared with the content of the previously released consultation draft of the Plan, the Plan has adjusted downward the proportion of new energy vehicle sales in 2025, from 25 percent in the consultation draft to 20 percent. For why the target is set at 20%, Xin Guobin said at the State Council policy briefing, mainly based on two considerations:

First of all, the development of new energy vehicles is to address climate change, promote green development of important strategic initiatives, at present, on the one hand, strict carbon dioxide emissions regulations, reverse reverse forcing enterprises to increase the research and development of new energy vehicles, on the other hand, through increased investment and subsidies to positively pull the industry. Subsidies to positively pull the development of the industry. As to why the use of such a "front pull and push" support mode, Xin Guobin believes that "the development of this industry is a difficult goal to achieve." In his view, the new energy automobile industry wants to flourish, on the one hand, to encourage enterprises to have the initiative to adjust their own structure, on the other hand, in the policy or to promote the car to this effort.

Secondly, the global development of new energy automobile industry has entered a new stage of accelerated development, after these years of sustained efforts, China's new energy automobile industry development has a certain foundation, industry experts predicted that in 2025 or so, China's new energy automobile purchasing cost with the cost of traditional fuel vehicles can probably be equalized, but Xin Guobin believes that this is still a certain degree of difficulty. Comprehensive consideration of the supply capacity of the product, the consumer's consumption tendency and market demand space and other factors, but also extensive consultation with all aspects of the views of in-depth measurement and analysis, so put forward 20% of this guiding target.

Photo source: Gaixian Automotive

For this target, China Automotive Data Co., Ltd. analyzes that, in an ideal state, the penetration rate of new energy vehicles in 2025 will reach 25% and 20% respectively, corresponding to the average annual compound growth rate of 37.97% and 31.95%, so regardless of the 20% or 25% of the target, the growth potential requirements are higher, but the 20% target is not a good idea, but it's a good idea. In comparison, the 20% target is more realistic.

The senior analyst of Gaijin Automotive Research Institute holds a similar view, he believes that the current new energy vehicle market is still policy-driven market, 2020 to 2025, the industry will shift from policy-driven development to market-driven as the main body of the transfer, this process requires time and industry **** the same efforts; In addition, our country in the large-scale promotion of new energy vehicles has been faced with certain impediments such as those related to the charging infrastructure perfection, industry chain maturity and so on. So lowering the target can ease the pressure brought by these bottlenecks, and all aspects of the industry and the market can develop in concert.

In the above State Council policy briefing, Xin Guobin frankly said that in the "planning" public consultation process there are two voices. The first voice is a little more positive, put forward a target of 25%, which from the point of view of government departments is to implement the requirements of the central green development. "We hope to set a target, we can get everyone's efforts, pop up, so as to promote the development of the industry is favorable. But now from the entire industry-wide consultation process, many parties believe that this target is set to 25% is too high." Xin Guobin said, comprehensive consideration, and finally set the target at 20%, but according to the current state of industrial development, but also need to *** with the efforts to complete.

To achieve the goal needs to be from the supply and demand in both directions

To 2025, new energy vehicle sales accounted for 20% of the target has been set, then in the next five years how to achieve this goal has become a topic of reflection in the industry.

From the current point of view, although China's new energy automobile market has been in the global leading position in terms of scale, but there are still some outstanding problems in the industry at this stage of development, such as the key core technology innovation ability is not strong, the infrastructure is lagging behind, the service model needs to be innovative and perfect, and the industrial ecology is not yet sound and so on.

Xin Guobin said at the above State Council policy briefing, to promote the realization of 20% of this goal, need to learn from European countries, but also need to work in both directions, from the supply and demand sides to promote. Which in the supply side, the need to reduce costs, improve safety and other key factors to continue to strengthen the technical research, the development of advanced products suitable for peace of mind, to accelerate the formation of a greater competitive advantage in the market. In the demand side also need to strengthen policy guidance, the introduction of a number of incentives to encourage the use of new energy vehicles link preferential policies, optimize the classification of traffic management measures, to encourage power switching and other business model innovations, including accelerating the field of public **** vehicle electrification to lead, and increase the new energy vehicles to the countryside of the promotion of the strength and so on, to continue to enhance the user experience.

For both supply and demand, in the release of the "Plan" also puts forward the specific direction of development, such as the "Plan" of the third chapter put forward to enhance the industrial base capacity, enhance the basic key technologies, advanced basic technology, basic core components, key basic materials and other research and development capabilities; strengthen the high-strength, lightweight, high-security, low-cost, long-life power batteries and fuel cells System short-board technology research and development, etc. On the demand side, the Plan focuses on the pain points in the use of new energy vehicles, such as the proposal in Chapter 6 to vigorously promote the construction of charging and switching networks, and improve the convenience of charging and product reliability; encouraging business model innovation, combining the transformation of old neighborhoods, urban renewal and other work, guiding multi-party joint development of charging facilities construction and operation, and support for the development of residential areas with multiple cars and piles, and the development of cooperation modes such as the proximity of parking spaces*** enjoyment, etc.

From

From the content of the Plan and the 2025 target, China's new energy automobile industry in the next five years or ushered in huge changes. National new energy vehicle innovation project expert group leader Wang Binggang previously said, China's new energy automobile industry has been in the government policy incentives-oriented cultivation period gradually come out, the next to enter the period of rapid development, and the rapid development of the industry chain brought about by the impact of the industry chain is huge, so the new energy automobile industry chain to do a good job of deployment.

Photo credit: Gaijin Automotive Research Institute

Gaijin Automotive Research Institute senior analysts believe that the next five years, China's new energy vehicle potential will be largely stimulated, which is the entire industry and the market for the future of the electrification of the megatrend of the whole aspect of the development of cultivation in exchange. As the world's largest producer of new energy vehicles and manufacturing countries, a single domestic market demand is still limited, the future of new energy vehicle exports or will become the direction of the domestic new energy vehicle enterprises to try, then the new energy automobile industry will also realize the internal and external double cycle of the development model. The senior analyst predicted that by 2025, the overall penetration rate of electrified passenger cars in China will reach 38%, and the market share of new energy vehicles will reach 20%.

This article comes from the author of the automobile home car family number, does not represent the views of the automobile home position.