Eviews traditional model

In the VAR model, the ECM error regression term is used as the first-order difference of regression quantity, and the error correction term is CointEq 1.

Line 1 indicates the integral speed coefficient of the error correction term. The greater the absolute value, the faster the adjustment.

The values in brackets corresponding to each value are standard errors, and the values in brackets below are t statistics.

Each column is its VEC equation, written vertically.

Dchn =-0.395 ECM (-1)-0.395d (China (-1))+0.03 18D (USA (-1))-0.0082.

Dusa =-0.1217 ECM (-1)+0 ... 0475d (China (-1))+0.5388D (USA (-1))-

D is the difference, represented by a small triangle. (-1) lags behind by a full stop, which should be the subscript t- 1.

The coefficient of the error correction (ECM) term is negative, indicating that there is a reverse correction mechanism, which can dynamically adjust the short-term equilibrium deviation. Refer to CointEq 1. Many error correction coefficients of VEC are also positive. VEC equation can be expressed in matrix form.