Development trend of global energy pattern

The development trend of global energy pattern is that traditional energy is still dominant and unstable, and the development of new energy will accelerate and its proportion will increase.

First, traditional energy is still dominant and instability is increasing.

Since the beginning of 2022, the conflict between Russia and Ukraine has led to a global energy supply shortage, and the loose monetary policy in the early stage has released huge energy consumption demand. The global energy market as a whole shows an imbalance between supply and demand, and the price increase continues to expand, thus pushing up global inflation and greatly increasing energy consumption expenditure. Research shows that the cost of oil and gas has increased by 10% to 20% due to the soaring global prices of oil, gas and electricity.

At present, traditional energy is still dominant. The proportion of three traditional fossil fuels, oil, coal and natural gas, exceeds 83%, while the proportion of renewable energy, hydropower and nuclear energy is low, so it is difficult to replace traditional energy on a large scale for the time being. In view of the geopolitical crisis and the escalation of energy sanctions, it is expected that the uncertainty of traditional energy trade will increase and new changes will take place in the energy market and energy pattern.

Second, the development of new energy will accelerate and its proportion will increase.

In response to global climate change, the European Union, China, the United States and other big countries have proposed large-scale investment in new energy, which is expected to reduce dependence on fossil fuels. IEA predicts that the proportion of fossil fuels in global energy will fall to 75% in 2030 and further to 60% in 2050. Major economies around the world have increased their investment in energy transformation around climate action. According to the BNEF report, in 202 1, China and the United States accounted for 35% and 15% respectively.

The medium and long-term energy plan for 2022 proposed by the European Union is mainly used in the fields of renewable energy, hydrogen energy infrastructure, power grid, energy conservation and heat pump, and the share of renewable energy has increased from 40% to 45%.

IEA released "Renewable Energy Market Update-Prospects for 2022-2023", and it is estimated that China will account for 45% of the newly installed renewable energy in the world in 2022-2023. Generally speaking, the development and investment of new energy resources are progressing smoothly, and the process of global energy cooperation is also accelerating. However, the international new energy development will still face new challenges under the situation that the game among big countries is intensifying and there are still differences in climate action.