Analysis of 20 10 real estate appraisers' test sites: advantages and disadvantages of cash flow discount method and traditional method

Three, the advantages and disadvantages of cash flow discount method and traditional method

Theoretically, the calculation result of discounted cash flow method is more accurate, but the calculation process is more complicated. The results calculated by traditional methods are rough, but the calculation process is relatively simple. As far as their accuracy and roughness are concerned, it may not be fully established in reality, because the cash flow discount method needs "foresight" in a sense, and it needs to do the following three things: ① accurately predict how long the subsequent development and operation period will be; (2) When all kinds of income and expenditure occur, it needs to be accurately predicted; (3) The amount of income and expenditure should be accurately predicted.

Because there are many unknown and accidental factors that will make the prediction deviate from reality, it is very difficult to predict accurately. Nevertheless, the discounted cash flow method should be adopted as far as possible in the actual valuation. When it is difficult to use the cash flow discount method, the traditional method can be used.

1. Suppose what you don't need to do when using the cash flow discount method in the development method is (). (Examination questions in 2007)

A. estimate the subsequent development and operation period

B. estimate the expenditure and income of subsequent development.

C. estimate when the expenditure and income of subsequent development will occur.

D. estimate the interest and profit during the development period

Answer: d

2. There is a large-scale material storage warehouse in an urban area, which is planned to be changed into a supermarket according to the urban planning and market demand. Need to evaluate the open market value of the warehouse, the most suitable use () for valuation. (Examination questions in 2002)

A. Comparative law

B. Cost method

C. Hypothetical development method

D. Long-term trend method

Answer: c

3. The following statement about hypothetical development method is incorrect (). (Examination questions in 2006)

A. Assume that the development method is formally the inverse algorithm of the cost method for evaluating the price of newly developed real estate.

B Assume that the development method can be used to calculate the land price, expected profit and cost of developing real estate projects.

C assume that the development method is applicable to land to be developed, projects under construction and old houses that cannot change the status quo.

D assume that development is usually a one-time price surplus.

Answer: c

4. For the plots with urban planning requirements, but the urban planning and design conditions have not been formally defined, the hypothetical development method is usually not suitable for valuation. () (Examination questions in 2007)

Answer: √.

5. From the point of view of valuation, the profits that real estate developers should get should be separated from the interest due to their own funds. () (200 1 test)

Answer: √.

6. In the discounted cash flow method, the calculation of real estate value, development cost, management expenses, sales expenses and sales taxes after development is mainly based on the real estate market situation at the time of evaluation. () (Examination questions in 2005)

Answer: ×

7. Assuming that the time value of funds must be considered in the valuation of development methods, the traditional interest calculation method and cash flow discount method are generally adopted. Because there are many unknown factors and accidental factors, the prediction is easy to deviate from reality. Therefore, the traditional interest calculation method should be adopted as far as possible in the actual valuation. () (Examination questions in 2005)

Answer: ×