The CPI increase may hit a two-and-a-half-year high. Many institutions expect that CPI will increase by 3% in September.

Zhongxin Jingwei 65438+ 10/4 (Wang Yongle) This morning (65438+ 10/4), the National Bureau of Statistics will release the consumer price index (CPI) for September. Many institutions predict that CPI will increase by 3% year-on-year in September, hitting a new high after April 2020.

The CPI increase may reach the highest level in two and a half years.

According to the data of the National Bureau of Statistics, in August 2022, the national CPI decreased by 0. 1% from the previous month and increased by 2.5% year-on-year. The year-on-year growth rate was not only lower than last month's 2.7%, but also lower than market expectations for two consecutive months.

For the CPI data to be released in September, Wind data shows that as of June, 10, 13 and 18 institutions predict that CPI will increase by 3% year-on-year. From the forecast value, 2 companies are below 2.9%, 6 companies are 2.9%, 8 companies are 3%, and 2 companies are over 3%. Great Wall Securities (002939) gives the highest forecast value of 3.7%, and Galaxy Securities gives the lowest forecast value of 2.6%. If calculated according to the average predicted by institutions, the year-on-year increase of CPI will reach a new high after April 2020.

From the institutional forecast, the increase in food prices is the main driving factor for the year-on-year increase in CPI, rather than the weakening of food projects to form a hedge.

According to data from the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs, pork prices returned to an upward trend in September, and vegetable prices surged back, with an increase significantly stronger than that of the same period last year. As of the week of September 29th, the average weekly prices of pork and 19 kinds of vegetables were 3 1.29 yuan/kg and 4.25 yuan/kg, respectively, which were 5.96% and 6.80% higher and 58.9% and/kloc-0, respectively.

In terms of oil price, the National Development and Reform Commission raised and lowered the price of refined oil in September, and the price of gasoline and diesel was lowered by 65.438 million yuan and 95 yuan per ton respectively.

According to the analysis of the macro research team of Peking University National Economic Research Center, due to the increase of enterprise stocking demand before the National Day, domestic consumption demand rebounded seasonally, the supply of some commodities was tight, food prices rose month-on-month, and non-food prices were relatively stable. CPI is expected to increase by 2.9% year-on-year in September.

According to the macro report of Debon Securities, food prices rose again in September after being quiet in August. In non-food items, oil prices continued to fall in September, which suppressed energy-related consumer prices. Overall, it is expected that the increase of non-food CPI will be weaker than the historical level in the same period, but the increase of food will drive the overall CPI increase back to around 3.0%.

Huachuang Macro Zhang Yu team predicts that CPI will continue to rise in September, but it is difficult to exceed 3% year-on-year. CPI is expected to increase by 0.4% month-on-month and 2.9% year-on-year. Overall, food prices will continue to put upward pressure on CPI. On the other hand, employment pressure and epidemic situation continue to suppress the upward slope of core inflation, while the adjustment of international oil prices has led to a slight decline in domestic refined oil prices.

How to go about CPI in the future?

Recently, the price of pigs has risen strongly, and official regulation has made frequent efforts. According to the news from the National Development and Reform Commission, according to preliminary statistics, in September, the state and local governments put in about 200,000 tons of government reserve pork, and the quantity put in a single month reached the highest level in history, and the price put in was lower than the market price, effectively ensuring the stable supply and price operation of live pigs and pork.

654381October 9, the National Development and Reform Commission announced that the price of live pigs has been running at a high level recently, which has been at a historical high. In order to do a good job in ensuring supply and price stability in the live pig market, the state will put in the fifth batch of central reserve pork this year. 10 12 night, Huachu. Official website announced that 20,000 tons of central reserve frozen pork was put on the market for auction on 10 and 14, 2022.

Wanhe Securities analyzed that CPI is still controllable under the pig cycle. According to the calculation of CPI growth rate and the analysis of pig cycle, the pig price will be in the rising channel before February 2023. The government began to put in government pork reserves in September, which reflected the policy orientation of the country to stabilize prices. It is estimated that the year-on-year increase of CPI in the fourth quarter can still be controlled below 3%.

According to the macro report of orient securities, in the short term, the upward trend of the pig cycle will continue to promote the upward trend of CPI. However, there are two constraints in this round of CPI upward cycle. First of all, in the next few months, the proportion of pig price in the year-on-year weight of CPI will decrease. Second, the demand for services and some commodities under the COVID-19 epidemic is weaker than that before the epidemic, and the performance of core CPI is sluggish, so the upward cycle of CPI in this round may be moderate.