What is the financial crisis?

The financial crisis, also known as the financial storm, refers to the sharp, short-term and super-cycle deterioration of all or most financial indicators of a country or several countries and regions (such as short-term interest rates, monetary assets, securities, real estate, land prices, the number of commercial bankruptcies, the number of financial institutions closed down, etc.).

Financial crisis can be divided into currency crisis, debt crisis and banking crisis. In recent years, the financial crisis has increasingly presented some mixed forms of crisis.

Its characteristic is that people's expectations of the future economy are more pessimistic, the currency of the whole region has depreciated sharply, and the economic aggregate and scale have lost a lot, which has hit economic growth. It is often accompanied by a large number of business failures, rising unemployment rate, general economic depression in society, and sometimes even social unrest or national political turmoil. In response to the Asian financial crisis that shocked the world, Zhu Rongji firmly stated on many important occasions that "the RMB will never depreciate and will not increase the crisis and difficulties in other Asian countries and regions." "We are part of Asia, we are in the same boat, and we will never take advantage of people's crisis. "The image of the China government represented by Zhu Rongji has won the respect and praise of the international community. Media at home and abroad generally believe that Zhu Rongji is leading the people of China out of the predicament in the wave of economic reform. The best person to go to the light. (The above content is taken from On the Linguistic Features of Zhu Rongji's Speech, Journal of Applied Writing 1998,No. 10).

[Edit this paragraph] The American financial crisis has gone through three stages.

The Wall Street storm triggered by the American subprime mortgage crisis has now evolved into a global financial crisis. The rapid development, large quantity and great influence of this process can be said to be unexpected. Generally speaking, it can be divided into three stages: first, the debt crisis, housing lenders can not repay the principal and interest on time caused by the problem. The second stage is the liquidity crisis. Due to the debt crisis, some of these financial institutions cannot have enough liquidity in time to meet the creditors' requirements for liquidation. The third stage is the credit crisis. In other words, people have doubts about credit-based financial activities, leading to such a crisis.

[Edit this paragraph] Memorabilia of the financial crisis

On March 8, 2008, the Federal Reserve decided to lower the overnight lending rate of commercial banks from 3.0% to 2.25%. On March 6, 2008, the Federal Reserve decided to reduce the discount rate from 3.5% to 3.25%.

On June 365438+1October 3 1 day, 2008, the Hong Kong Monetary Authority announced that the basic interest rate would be lowered by 50 basis points to 4.5%.

On June 29th, 2008, the overnight lending rate of Federal Reserve commercial banks dropped from 3.5% to 3.0%.

On June 29th, 2008, the Federal Reserve provided $30 billion to commercial banks through loan auction.

20081October 24th, 65438, Morgan Stanley said that it would lay off about 1000 people in one week. Bank of America and Wachovia Bank announced that their profits fell by 95% and 98% respectively in the fourth quarter of 2007.

On June 22nd, 2008, the Federal Reserve lowered its benchmark interest rate by 0.75 percentage point to 3.5%.

On June 5, 2007 10, both the Dow Jones index and the Standard & Poor's index hit record highs, and the latter also hit a record closing point.

On September 2 1 2007, the Federal Reserve injected $3 billion into the banking system through the overnight repurchase agreement.

On September 19, 2007, the Federal Reserve injected $9.75 billion into the banking system through the overnight repurchase agreement, reducing the overnight lending rate of commercial banks to 4.75%.

On September 14, 2007, the interest rate of American housing loan fell to the lowest level in four months.

On September 12, 2007, Citigroup provided 2 14 USD to GMAC Finance Company; ; The European Central Bank injected 75 billion euros into the banking system again.

On September 6, 2007, the European Central Bank decided to keep the benchmark interest rate in the euro zone unchanged at 4%. The Bank of England announced that it would keep the benchmark interest rate unchanged at 5.75%.

On September 6, 2007, the interbank lending rate in Britain rose sharply recently, reaching the highest level in the past nine years.

On September 5, 2007, the Federal Reserve injected $8.5 billion into the banking system through the overnight repurchase agreement.

On September 4, 2007, the Federal Reserve injected $5 billion into the banking system through a two-day repurchase agreement. The US manufacturing activity index fell to its lowest level in nearly five months in August.

On August 3rd, 2007, KLOC-0, Barclays Bank borrowed about 654,380.6 billion pounds from the Bank of England for the second time. Ameriquest, the major American subprime mortgage company, no longer accepts new mortgage applications.

On August 3, 2007, KLOC-0, Royal Bank of Scotland (RBS) reduced the number of employees in its investment banking department responsible for the US market.

On August 30, 2007, the Federal Reserve injected another $654.38 billion into the financial system. The Bank of England lent1600 million pounds at a punitive interest rate of 6.75%.

On August 29th, 2007, the Federal Reserve injected $5.25 billion into the financial system again. Ben Bernanke, chairman of the Federal Reserve, sent a letter to the US Congress, suggesting that Congress should make efforts to help borrowers in the subprime mortgage market.

On August 29th, 2007, the share prices of Bear Stearns, Citigroup and Lehman Brothers all plummeted. In the second quarter, the US house price index showed the biggest decline in 20 years.

On August 28, 2007, the credit card default rate of American consumers increased by 30% year-on-year; Investors sold shares in Southeast Asian banks, and Citigroup lowered the year-end target of the Straits Times Index.

On August 28th, 2007, the Federal Reserve injected $9.5 billion into the financial system again. The profit forecast of Countrywide Financial Corp, the largest mortgage company in the United States, was lowered by Lehman Brothers. Goldman Sachs lowered its third-quarter profit forecast for Bear Stearns, Lehman Brothers and Morgan Stanley.

On August 27th, 2007, China Construction Bank indicated that it held US$ 654.38+0.6 billion in subprime mortgage-backed securities in the United States, and had withdrawn 654.38+0.39 billion yuan from mortgage-backed security's investment loss reserve.

On August 24, 2007, the Bank of Japan recovered 300 billion yen from the financial market; The Federal Reserve injected $654.38+07.25 billion into the financial system.

On August 23, 2007, the Federal Reserve injected another $7 billion into the financial system. The European Central Bank once again injected 40 billion euros into the financial system; Lehman Brothers closed its mortgage subsidiary; The big four American banks borrowed $2 billion from the discount window of the Federal Reserve.

On August 23, 2007, most major stock markets in the Asia-Pacific region rose; ICBC and Bank of China successively issued semi-annual reports. The former holds $6,543.8+$22.9 million in subprime-related bonds, while the latter holds more than $9 billion in such assets.

On August 22, 2007, the Federal Reserve injected another $2 billion into the financial system.

On August 2, 2007, the Bank of Japan announced that it would inject another 800 billion yen into banks. The Federal Reserve injected another $3.75 billion into the financial system; The National Finance Corporation confirmed that it has laid off 500 people in the mortgage business department.

On August 20th, 2007, the Bank of Japan injected 65,438+0 trillion yen into the banking system, and the Federal Reserve injected 3.5 billion dollars into the financial system. Japanese stock market soared.

On August 18, 2007, the Federal Reserve lowered the discount rate, and the new york stock market rebounded sharply. The German stock market also rose sharply because the Federal Reserve cut the discount rate.

On August 17, 2007, the decline of European and American stock markets narrowed, and Japan and emerging markets continued to fall. Hong Kong's Hang Seng Index once fell below 20,000 points, and the index of state-owned enterprises once fell more than 10%. The Federal Reserve lowered the rediscount rate by 0.5 percentage point to 5.75%.

On August 17, 2007, the Federal Reserve injected1700 million dollars into the financial system again. National Finance Corporation, the largest commercial mortgage company in the United States, is facing bankruptcy; Global stock markets plunged again.

On August 16, 2007, the Federal Reserve injected another $7 billion into the financial system. Global stock markets plunged. Stock markets in Japan and emerging markets fell far more than those in Europe and America.

On August 15, 2007, the European Central Bank and the Federal Reserve considered making currency swap arrangements; The European Central Bank has injected more than 2 10 billion euros into the banking system of the euro zone; Bank of America began to refuse to issue loans based on subprime credit.

In August 2007 14, the three central banks of the United States, Europe and Japan injected more than 72 billion dollars to rescue the market again; The Asia-Pacific central bank will inject capital into the banking system again.

On August 1 1 day, 2007, central banks around the world injected more than $326.2 billion to rescue the market within 48 hours; The Federal Reserve pumped $38 billion into the banking system three times a day.

From August 9, 2007 to 10, the central banks of Europe, the United States, Canada, Australia and Japan successively injected $302.3 billion into the global economy.

In August 2007, Bank of China and Industrial and Commercial Bank of China were involved in the "American subprime mortgage storm".

In August 2007, Countrywide, the largest mortgage company in the United States, said that the turmoil in the subprime mortgage market began to affect high-quality mortgages.

In July, 2007, Standard & Poor's and Moody's issued a warning to the high-risk mortgage-backed bonds with more than $654.38+0.7 billion.

In July 2007, Macquarie Bank's funds were damaged in the subprime mortgage market.

In July 2007, the investment in American housing mortgage loans was closed.

In June 2007, two hedge funds under Bear Stearns suffered heavy losses due to their investments in the subprime mortgage market.

In April, 2007, the risk of the subprime mortgage market suddenly appeared-it began when mortgage companies applied for bankruptcy protection in the new century.

[Edit this paragraph] The contagion mechanism of the international financial crisis has shown new features:

The financial crisis caused by external factors and its international contagion are not recent phenomena. 1873, German and Austrian economic prosperity attracted capital to stay at home, and foreign credit suddenly stopped, which made it difficult for American Jay Cooke companies to operate. 1890 London Bahrain Brothers Investment Bank has a payment crisis against Argentina's creditor's rights. In addition, in June of 5438+00, a financial crisis occurred in new york, and a series of enterprises in London closed down. Bahrain Bank almost closed down in June of 1 10, only with the help of the syndicated guarantee fund led by William Lidderdale, governor of the Bank of England, but Britain helped South Africa, Australia, the United States and other Latin American countries. 1928 In the spring, the new york stock market began to prosper, draining the credit sources that could have been invested in Germany and Latin America, which led to economic depression in these countries and regions. The suspension of overseas credit is likely to accelerate the overseas economic recession, which will have an impact on the countries that caused all this. In 1990s, with the expansion of international hot money, international monetary and financial crises broke out frequently. According to a study completed by Barry Eisengreen and Michael Bodo in 200 1 year, the probability of a financial crisis in a randomly selected country is now 1973 1 times, and the contagiousness of international monetary and financial crises is greatly enhanced, which often happens soon. The media left many words to describe this phenomenon: 1994 "tequila effect", "Asian flu" and "Russian virus" in the Mexican crisis, and the research on the contagion mechanism of monetary and financial crises also rose rapidly. Because a variety of crisis contagion mechanisms need to be realized under the conditions of open capital account and financial market, China survived the Asian financial crisis of 1997 to a great extent by moderate control of capital account and low openness of financial service market. But today, with the changes in China's economic and financial situation, although China's capital account has not been fully opened, the risk of crisis contagion has greatly increased. The American subprime mortgage crisis that shocked the international financial market sounded the alarm for us, indicating that international finance.

The international contagion channels of generalized currency and financial crisis can be divided into two categories: non-accidental contagion channels and accidental contagion channels. The former refers to the infection channels that exist in both the stable period and the crisis period before the crisis. The latter refers to the infection channel that appeared only after the crisis. Because the first type of contagion channel comes from the actual economic and financial ties between countries or regions, and the contagion of crisis comes from the change of macroeconomic fundamentals, it is also called "actual contact channel" or "contagion based on fundamentals", which mainly includes trade ties and competitive devaluation, policy adjustment, random aggregate demand liquidity shock, etc. Occasional contagion has nothing to do with economic fundamentals, but is the result of the behavior (especially irrational behavior) of investors or other participants in the financial market, so it is also called "real contagion" and "pure contagion", which mainly includes endogenous liquidity shock, multiple equilibrium and wake-up effect, and political influence contagion. However, these contagion mechanisms are often based on trade links and the investment of "central" countries in "marginal" countries, because institutional investors in developed countries give up emerging market assets and pursue their own high-quality assets. As far as the impact of the US subprime mortgage crisis on China is concerned, the role of China's trade links and foreign investment mechanism may not be critical. On the contrary, China's foreign investment and China's overseas listing may become the most important ways of crisis contagion, and this way of crisis contagion will become more and more important.

[Edit this paragraph] Why did the financial crisis happen?

The current financial crisis is caused by the bubble of American real estate market. In some ways, this financial crisis is similar to other crises that broke out every four years after the end of World War II 10.

However, there are essential differences between financial crises. The current crisis marks the end of the era of credit expansion with the US dollar as the global reserve currency. Other cyclical crises are part of a larger boom-bust process. The current financial crisis is the peak of the super boom cycle that lasted for more than 60 years.

The boom-bust cycle usually revolves around the credit situation and always contains a prejudice or misunderstanding. This is usually a failure to realize that there is a reflexive and circular relationship between the willingness to lend and the value of collateral. If credit is easy to obtain, it will bring demand, which will push up the value of real estate; In turn, this situation increases the amount of available credit. Bubbles occur when people buy real estate and expect to benefit from mortgage refinancing. In recent years, the prosperity of American housing market is a proof. The super boom that lasted for 60 years is a more complicated example.

Whenever the credit expansion is in trouble, the financial authorities take intervention measures to inject liquidity into the market and find other ways to stimulate economic growth. This forms an asymmetric incentive system, the so-called moral hazard, which promotes the increasingly strong expansion of credit. This system was so successful that people began to believe in former US President Ronald? Ronald Reagan called it "the magic of the market"-I called it "market fundamentalism". Fundamentalists believe that the market will tend to be balanced and let market participants pursue their own interests, which is most beneficial to the interests of the same group of people. This is obviously a misunderstanding, because it is not the market itself that keeps the financial market from collapsing, but the intervention of the authorities. However, market fundamentalism began to become the dominant way of thinking in the 1980s, when the financial market was just beginning to globalize and the current account deficit began to appear in the United States.

Globalization has enabled the United States to absorb savings from other parts of the world and consume more than its own output. In 2006, the US current account deficit reached 6.2% of its gross domestic product (GDP). By introducing increasingly complex products and more generous terms, financial markets encourage consumers to borrow. Whenever the global financial system is in danger, the financial authorities will intervene and play a role in fueling the situation. Since 1980, the supervision has been relaxed, even to the point of name only.

The subprime mortgage crisis made financial institutions in developed countries re-evaluate risks and allocate assets. In the next two years, funds from developed countries will reverse the influx trend and strengthen the stability of local financial institutions. As a result, the stock market prices of emerging market countries will be greatly reduced, the local currencies will depreciate, the investment scale will be reduced, and the economic growth will slow down or even decline. The Baltic countries and India are the most vulnerable. The new financial crisis will bring pressure to China's economic growth, but China capital is also facing a good opportunity to "go global" and integrate the corresponding enterprises.

[Edit this paragraph] How to solve the financial crisis?

If China only imports oil to make the RMB appreciate, it is better to directly subsidize oil with foreign currency savings.

To carry out structural governance in China, we must first clean up the credit system, especially follow up the huge amount of money that has been lent. If there is a gap in this respect, we must print more tickets to reach a new balance point through rising prices (domestic RMB depreciation), which is the price that China people must pay. If there is no problem in this part, stop the appreciation of RMB immediately, spend the reserved dollars as soon as possible, or invest in the United States and sell real estate instead of saving American financial institutions. In this way, the United States will not put pressure on the renminbi and save the American economy. Whether China people make money or lose money in the future is good for now.

Deliberately protecting China's stock market and real estate market is the embodiment of China's reform achievements, especially real estate. All countries in the world regard real estate as the levee (the last line of defense) of their own economy. Once it is endangered, it will be saved at all costs. It is normal that the real estate market in China is overheated. The government's suppression will only create opportunities for foreign hot money to intervene and make China people pay a higher price in the future. Special protection should be given to real estate developers. Don't kill pigs and sell meat when pork is rising. It's not the fault of real estate developers that house prices have gone up.

The stock market cannot be saved by foreign capital. Foreign capital will not come to China for no reason, and it is impossible for China to play power games to keep foreign capital in China. In this way, in the case of excess liquidity, the RMB can no longer appreciate and foreign capital will continue to flow in.

China can't drive away foreign capital by devaluation, because China's economy can't do without foreign capital, and driving away will cause economic collapse.

China does not need to implement austerity policies. If so, it will mean that China's own money will be withdrawn from the main battlefield of the economy, foreign capital and hot money will dominate China's economy, and China's own money will eventually become useless.

China should manage the behavior of financial institutions to circle money. China should not blow up the financial bubble, and funds should not flow around in financial institutions. We should not only guide the people, but also invest in industries. Americans are very smart, others engage in high-tech bubbles and internet bubbles. Never heard of the financial bubble, China has a high financial bubble. Can prices not go up? Capital flows at the high end, no longer circulating in the industry, and the economy can still develop without problems.

The state should slow down the reform of non-tradable shares. The split share structure is mainly state-owned shares. It is not a good practice to compete for profits (funds) with the market by lifting the ban. The state can change the term of equity trading from 3 years to 30 years. Dramatically slowing down the lifting of the ban can save the stock market.

The state should strictly control refinancing. For listed companies, efficiency supervision and stock price supervision should be implemented. If the share price falls due to refinancing, it must be paid to shareholders by the refinancing money, so that there will be no malicious money.

As for stamp duty, it is really not a problem. Falling or not is not the key to the problem. The state collected more than 200 billion stamp duty last year. Even if it is not reduced, it will not collect 200 billion this year, and the reduction is not much. Compared with the lifting of the ban on refinancing, it is nothing at all.

The government should deal with structural problems in a targeted manner, and it is not good to cast a spell on China's economy.

[Edit this paragraph] The new world financial crisis

There will be a worldwide financial crisis in the next two years.

The subprime mortgage crisis made financial institutions in developed countries re-evaluate risks and allocate assets. In the next two years, funds from developed countries will reverse the influx trend and strengthen the stability of local financial institutions. As a result, the stock market prices of emerging market countries will be greatly reduced, the local currencies will depreciate, the investment scale will be reduced, and the economic growth will slow down or even decline. The Baltic countries and India are the most vulnerable. The new financial crisis will bring pressure to China's economic growth, but China capital is also facing a good opportunity to "go global" and integrate the corresponding enterprises.

The dark clouds of the global financial crisis are gathering, and in the next two years, there will be a new financial crisis around the world. The biggest victims of this financial crisis will be some emerging market countries, which brings challenges and new opportunities to China's economic development.

The reversal of capital flow will lead to financial crisis in emerging market countries.

Why will there be a new financial crisis in the future? This should start with the basic pattern of financial development in developed economies and emerging market economies in the past decade.

Developed economies, represented by the United States and Britain, have benefited from the general trend of globalization in the past decade, and their economies have continued to prosper, but the foundation of this prosperity is actually relatively fragile. These economies have relatively insufficient self-savings, increasing consumption and strengthening the trend of economic financialization. Its concentrated performance is that families use existing financial assets, especially real estate, as collateral to borrow money from banks to support their rising consumption. The inevitable result of the development of this pattern is the rupture of the consumer credit chain, and the concentrated expression is the subprime mortgage crisis in the United States. The subprime mortgage crisis made American financial institutions reevaluate the cost of financial risks and forced them to redistribute assets to reduce risks.

On the other hand, emerging market economies have attracted a lot of capital from developed countries in the past decade. Take Mexican, Russian, Indian, Brazilian and other countries as examples, more than half of the funds in their securities markets come from China. Rising overseas funds not only promote the soaring local asset prices, but also promote the prosperity of the local economy, and at the same time bring about the continuous appreciation of the real exchange rate of the local currency. This series of processes has laid the groundwork for the financial crisis of these economies, among which two regions are the most prominent: First, the three Baltic countries-Estonia, Lithuania and Latvia, where not only the current account deficit exceeds 10% of GDP, but also the fiscal deficit is getting bigger and bigger, and the rising trend of domestic prices is getting worse. Moreover, these countries have also implemented a linked exchange rate system linked to the euro, which undoubtedly wrote down the best chemical reaction formula that led to the financial crisis.

Another very fragile economy is India. Although India's economy has maintained an average annual growth rate of more than 8% in the past three years, its macroeconomic situation is not optimistic: for a long time, India's current account has been in deficit, more than half of the funds in the securities market have come from overseas, the inflation rate has been rising, and the central government has been in deficit for a long time.

Considering the economic situation of developed countries and emerging market countries comprehensively, we can easily draw a conclusion: in the next two years, the world economy is likely to see a reversal of capital flow, that is, the funds that poured into emerging market countries from developed economies in pursuit of high risks and high returns a few years ago will flow back to developed countries in reverse, and the stability of financial institutions in developed countries will be strengthened. The formation of this trend will undoubtedly have a direct impact on developing countries and eventually lead to the formation of financial crisis in emerging market countries.

The difference between the new financial crisis and the Asian financial crisis

This financial crisis may be different from the Asian financial crisis that happened ten years ago. Ten years ago, the Asian financial crisis was mainly manifested as the balance of payments crisis. At that time, a large number of foreign debts due in Asia needed to be repaid, and at the same time, international financial speculators ran on them one after another, which led to insufficient foreign exchange reserves in these countries and forced their currencies to depreciate sharply. The form of the new round of financial crisis is not necessarily marked by the shortage of international payments, because many emerging market countries have relatively high foreign exchange reserves today, and because they have learned the lessons of the Asian financial crisis, these countries have not borrowed on a large scale, but have attracted a large amount of foreign capital through the securities market. However, this does not mean that emerging market countries are not facing the financial crisis. The financial crisis took the form of a large amount of capital return, which led to a sharp drop in the price of the domestic securities market and the depreciation of the local currency, which led to a decline in the scale of local investment, a slowdown in economic growth and even a recession. This is just a mirror image of the economic prosperity and asset price bubbles in these emerging market countries a few years ago. The trigger of this new financial crisis is likely to be a trip to Chu in the Baltic Sea, which may spread from the three Baltic countries to eastern European countries, to South Asia, including India, and to other emerging market countries.

Capital flow should not be liberalized blindly, and fiscal policy should be flexible.

What challenges will China's economy face in the event of such a financial crisis? It is possible that some foreign capital will flee like other emerging market economies, which will have a certain impact on China's balance of payments and bring some deflationary pressure to China's economy, but it is not a bad thing for China's current high-speed operation (in fact, it is too fast). Moreover, this reverse flow of funds will also ease the pressure of RMB appreciation. However, it is undeniable that this reverse flow of funds will have a certain impact on the scale of domestic investment, which will lead to a considerable decline in China's economic growth rate. In addition, the decline in economic growth rate of many emerging market countries will indirectly affect China's economic growth through the decline in demand for China products. These are the impacts of the new financial crisis on China's economy.

We must see that the arrival of this emerging financial crisis has also brought huge "business opportunities" to China. When this round of financial crisis occurs, the asset prices in many emerging markets will be greatly reduced, which will be an excellent opportunity for China's capital to go abroad and invest in these countries, and also the best opportunity for China enterprises to "go abroad" and carry out integrated mergers and acquisitions with corresponding enterprises. Therefore, China's economic circles need to make good preparations in capital and project research. From a macro perspective, macroeconomic policies must take into account the possibility of a new round of financial crisis. On the issue of capital flow, we must be steady and steady, and we must not blindly let go. We should also consider the possibility of a large amount of funds leaving the market and the pressure caused by it. When a financial crisis occurs, the economic growth rate is bound to decline, so our fiscal policy must maintain some flexibility. On the premise of continuing to implement the current prudent fiscal policy, we should make good preparations for projects and funds. Once a new round of financial crisis occurs in neighboring countries, China can turn to a proactive fiscal policy and look for some investment projects with financial security and social benefits.

In short, the risk of a new round of financial crisis has come. China's ships, which are moving at full speed, must take into account the possible impact of the financial turmoil, seize the opportunity and defuse the risks, so that our economic development ships will have a bright future.

Why?

1July 2, 997, the Asian financial turmoil swept through Thailand and the Thai baht depreciated. Soon, the storm swept through Malaysia, Singapore, Japan and South Korea. Break the scene of rapid economic development in Asia. The economies of some Asian economic powers began to slump and the political situation in some countries began to be chaotic.

So, what is the cause of the Asian financial turmoil?

After reading a series of reports about the Asian financial turmoil and my own research, I found the following reasons:

1. george soros's individuals and capitalist groups supporting him;

2. The influence of American economic interests and policies;

3. The economic model of Asian countries leads to.

1. george soros's personal factors and a capitalist group that supports him;

"Financial Predator" and "Sleeping Wolf" are the titles of this financial geek. He once said, "As far as financial operation is concerned, it has no morality or immorality, it is just an operation. Financial market does not belong to the category of morality, it is not immoral, and morality does not exist here at all, because it has its own rules of the game. I am a participant in the financial market. I will play this game according to the established rules. I will not violate these rules, so I won't feel guilty or responsible. Judging from the Asian financial turmoil, whether I speculate or not has no effect on the occurrence of financial events. It will still happen without hype. I don't think it's immoral to speculate in foreign currency. On the other hand, I abide by the operating rules. I respect these rules and care about them. As a moral person who cares about them, I want to ensure that these rules are conducive to building a good society, so I advocate changing some rules. I think some rules need to be improved. If improvement and improvement affect my own interests, I will still support it, because the rules that need to be improved may be the cause of the incident. "

As we all know, Soros's hype about Thai baht is the fuse of the Asian financial turmoil. He is an absolutely powerful and capable financier, but it is obviously despicable to achieve his goal of obtaining huge capital by playing with the political power of Asian countries.

Second, the impact of American economic interests and policies:

1949, Oriental Group, the predecessor of New China, was established. As the number one power of capitalism, the United States has a sense of crisis. He established a capitalist United front in the Asia-Pacific region through strong economic backing: South Korea, Japan, Taiwan Province Province and even Southeast Asia all became economic vassals of the United States. This has brought economic support to the rapid development of some Asian countries. In the 1970s, the economies of some countries in Southeast Asia developed rapidly.

However, in 199 1, the disintegration of the Soviet Union marked the disintegration of the Eastern Group. Of course, the United States did not allow the Asian economy to continue to develop like this, so it began to recover economic losses. For Soros's behavior, he is conniving.

Third, the economic model of Asian countries leads to:

New Matai, Japan and South Korea are all export-oriented countries. They are highly dependent on the world market. The shake of the Asian economy will inevitably lead to a situation that will affect the whole body. Take Thailand as an example. Whether the Thai baht should be bought or sold in the international market is not dominated by the government, and there is not enough foreign exchange reserves. Facing the speculation of financiers, the national economy is vulnerable. The economy determines politics, so the political situation in Thailand is turbulent.

enlighten

(1) The openness of a country's economy is based on its strong economic strength and stable political power. Only strong economic strength and stable political power can we talk about real economic development.

(2) Only when economists have a correct outlook on life and values can they promote social progress and development, otherwise they will not be real economists and will hinder economic development.

(3) Only by improving the comprehensive national strength can a country be in an invincible position.