Slaughtering enterprises depress prices, and pig prices "fall for four days in a row"! The reason behind it is not so simple.

Since the mid-term of 10, the pig price has been in a state of ups and downs since it ushered in an all-round rise. After June 1 1, with the increase of pig price, the game between slaughter enterprises and farmers intensified. In previous competitions, the high mood of farmers led to victory, which led to the continuous rise of pig prices. However, with the pig price rising to a certain extent, the slaughter enterprises began to lose money, so the willingness to lower the price increased, and finally the balance of the game began to tilt to the lower price side, and the pig price began to decline.

As of 65438+February 10, the pig price has "fallen for four consecutive days". Obviously, the decline in pig prices is directly related to the price reduction of slaughter enterprises, but the reasons behind it are not that simple.

First, pork prices fell first.

On June 5438+ 10, after the price of pork fell to single digits, the mode of crazy consumption of pork was started, and the subsequent enema and meat hoarding also led to a significant increase in the price of live pigs. At the same time, with the surge in consumption, the price of meat has also risen rapidly. In just over a month, the price of meat rose from single digits to 15~ 18 yuan/kg, and even to 20 yuan/kg in some areas.

The rise in meat prices has curbed consumption to some extent. On February 2, 65438, the price of pork dropped for the first time, with a month-on-month decrease of 0.6%, and at the same time ended the trend of pork price rising for seven consecutive weeks. The decline in meat prices reveals an obvious signal: the supply of pork in the market has obviously exceeded demand. Among them, the suppression of demand by the rebound in meat prices is only one of the reasons, and more importantly, the increase in pork supply in the market.

Second, farmers "leave their bags for safety"

One of the important reasons for the increase of pork supply is the increase of slaughter willingness of farmers. Although the game between farmers and slaughter enterprises was fierce before, with the decline of consumption, the subsequent market risks increased, and pig breeding was at a loss for most of this year. At this time, coupled with the weakening of consumption and the price reduction of slaughter enterprises, many farmers will not be "crushed", but will choose to take advantage of the trend and settle down. After all, this year is really scary.

On the other hand, by the end of the year, all large pig farms will have slaughter tasks. At present, the output of large enterprises is increasing, but the overall growth is not comprehensive, so it has not had a key impact on the market.

Third, the "liquidation" and "reduction" of slaughtering enterprises.

In addition to the increase in farmers' willingness to slaughter and the increase in pork supply in the market, there is also a reason for the clearing of frozen products. The high inventory of frozen products in slaughter enterprises is also a feature of the live pig market this year. Frozen meat purchased in the early stage needs to be taken out of the warehouse when the price of meat rises. At the same time, by the end of the year, slaughter enterprises also have the will to "reduce inventory", so the acquisition volume will also decline. Therefore, the superposition of the two also increases the meat supply in the market in disguise.

Fourth, can the price of pigs go up?

Although with the increase of pork supply and the weakening of consumption, the price of pigs has been "falling for four consecutive days", at present, bacon has not completely ended, the price difference between the market fat pigs and standard pigs still exists, and the price of fat pigs is still high.

Moreover, from previous years, winter solstice is often an important solar term for bacon, so it is not excluded that there will be some consumption support during this winter solstice. Therefore, although the current pig price continues to fall, there is still a chance to rise. However, it needs to be clear that the probability of a sharp rise is very small, and the subsequent pig price is likely to fluctuate between 8 and 9 yuan.