What is the future development trend of the Internet?

The Present Situation and Development of Internet in China

The development of the Internet began during the Cold War. At the end of 1960s, due to the global hegemony of the United States and the Soviet Union, in order to prevent the influence of nuclear war on its own communication system, the United States began to study how to prevent nuclear strikes. This is also the most basic concept of Internet research-after a nuclear attack, communication can be quickly restored and kept uninterrupted. The predecessor of Internet is APRANET, which is an advanced network infrastructure of the US Army, and it is very different from the traditional communication network. The development of traditional communication network has gone through magnet, step by step, vertical and horizontal, and finally developed into program control. Up to now, step-by-step transfer modes such as ISDN, BSDN and ATM are the development trend of broadband networks, and the next step may be NTN, an Internet architecture.

First of all, the Internet has no center, and its structure is non-center. This is also for the most basic purpose. No attack can destroy its central control department, and every node and every connection point can recover quickly and communicate with other nodes after being hit.

Second, the Internet is addressed globally, which means that its address resources are distributed globally. The Internet we are using now is an IPV4 network, and the total number of addresses in this network is about 4 billion. The Internet evolved from the United States, so the online address resources and the distribution of address resources are actually controlled by the United States. At present, there are more than 2 billion IP addresses in the United States, nearly 3 billion, accounting for about 74% of the world. China now has very few address resources, about 50 million, accounting for only a little more than 1%.

Internet was a military system at the beginning of its development, and then it developed and gradually expanded its application. At first, four universities were interconnected, and later it was expanded to 13, forming a secondary root server with 10 locations in the United States. After that, although the Internet was applied to education and scientific research departments, its rapidity and convenience made more and more departments, including many government departments, apply it. After the commercial sector began to participate, the trend of Internet commercialization was inevitable. In this case, the US Federal Bureau of Investigation conducted a survey in 1984, asking all research institutions involved in the Internet in the United States and institutions connected with the Internet at that time to put forward opinions and suggestions on the following issues. If the United States introduces the Internet to the whole world, what impact will it have on the security and development of the United States? What are the disadvantages and suggestions? Before and after the preparations for internet society of china, we also had exchanges with American Internet organizations and some American experts who studied the TCP/IP protocol of the Internet. They also talked about this matter, and many people made suggestions, including possible problems after the establishment of the Internet, such as network viruses and hacker attacks, which were foreseen at that time. After comprehensively balancing various opinions, the US government decided to commercialize the Internet and push it to the world. Here you can see the thinking and contribution of the United States. The United States has made important contributions to the global application of the Internet and the development of the Internet in the whole world. At the same time, during the development of the Internet, the United States has implanted its own thinking and willpower into various fields of the Internet. Especially the most basic addressing method, because the address resources of the Internet are related to the development space of the whole Internet. At present, address resources are allocated globally by ICANN, which is a global organization that allocates domain names and digital resources. This organization was specially established in the United States, and its predecessor was IANA, which was specially established for the allocation of global Internet resources. The purpose of the United States is clear, that is, to control the Internet. What way does it take? This is where American thinking is different from other countries. It puts forward that the Internet is borderless, unregulated, lawless and anarchic, and it is a network generated by the people. ICANN is a non-governmental organization. The characteristic of non-governmental organizations is that despite the participation of government departments, the government is only regarded as a government advisory Committee and does not play a decisive role. The 19 members of ICANN Council decide the global network address resource allocation policy. Through this, it can take the policy of global address resources into its own hands. ICANN signed an agreement with the US Department of Commerce, which authorized it to assign Internet addresses. Any policy made by ICANN in Internet management must be approved by the US Department of Commerce. Through this, we can avoid the initiative of other governments calling on countries to be equal on the Internet through the United Nations or other intergovernmental organizations, and at the same time, we can hold the global address resources in our own hands. We and all countries in the world are well aware of this. Therefore, since 1998 and 1999, after accessing and applying the Internet, there is a global demand to reform the then IANA. It turns out that ICANN's directors are all Americans, but now they are elected by netizens from five continents. On June 23 last year, Qian, a researcher at the Chinese Academy of Sciences, was elected as a member of the ICANN board of directors after a global vote by the ICANN board. His term of office is three and a half years. Although ICANN has absorbed the participation of all countries now, the policy dominance is still in the hands of Americans.

Until today, the United States has played a great role in promoting the Internet. The development, application and popularization of the Internet are greatly influenced by the United States. We visited the United States when the 200 1 Internet Society was just established, and exchanged views with the Internet Society in Washington on Internet management and security. At that time, I asked if there would be censorship when sending and receiving mail in the United States, because some domestic experts once told us that some letters sent to the United States could not be received by Americans, and these letters might contain words such as "information censorship" and "information security". He didn't answer the question directly. He gave only one example. If you send me an invitation to your dinner party, this letter is equivalent to sending a letter to everyone on the Internet. Although we have peer-to-peer communication and invitation, online security cannot guarantee the privacy and reliability of information. He didn't answer whether the United States would check emails, but he told me in this way that it meant it.

From the characteristics of convenience and quickness, and from the perspective of connecting the global information base, the role of the Internet is far greater than its existing problems. 1987, China's first e-mail "Crossing the Great Wall and Going to the World" was sent out. 1April 20th, 994, we officially connected to the Internet. At that time, the connection line was a 64k data line provided by Sprint. Now our entrance and exit bandwidth is above 53 G, which should be said to have increased by a million times. At present, the number of CN domain names has exceeded 600 thousand. At that time, our CN domain name server was still in Karsmo University in the Federal Republic of Germany, because we didn't have our own domain name server at that time, and later we moved the server back to China. Now the total number of our IP addresses has exceeded 50 million. Relative to the number of netizens, it can explain why we use dynamic IP addresses in a large number of online applications, because our address resources are not enough. This situation has been greatly alleviated in the past year or two. When the Internet Society was founded in 2000, the number of IP addresses in China was170,000, which tripled in the past two years. At present, the number of computers connected to the Internet has exceeded 36 million. China's Internet development path is very tortuous, coming from a narrow path, not by sedan chair. People have done a lot of work in the popularization of Internet through ISP, ICP and venture capital. From the very beginning of the development of the Internet, the government of China has been aware of the possible problems of the Internet, and the policies formulated for the Internet problems are criticized worldwide every year. Now, although many of our policies were criticized at the beginning, all countries now realize that the Internet must have management and laws, and the Internet has national boundaries, not national boundaries. Technically, the Internet is borderless, but its management and standardization are necessary. It must change from a random, unregulated and unregulated state to a normal track.

There are many business models and types of Internet, but relatively speaking, there are mainly the following business value chains: traditional business access services provided by telecom operators; Online games, the value chain is formed by a series of service providers including online game service providers, game operators and telecom operators; Short message service, through ICP, service providers and network operators including mobile service providers, instant messaging, online advertising, online search and other services, has formed a relatively complete value chain. At the same time, we can see that there are other businesses that are developing in full swing. However, due to the incomplete value chain or the great difference in market value in the process of forming the value chain, these businesses have not formed a strong support for the network industry itself, nor have they brought great benefits to network practitioners.

The changes in information technology in China in recent years are also an important part of the global information industry. In the 1990s, the global telecommunications and IT industries developed rapidly, actually far exceeding the overall speed of national economic and social progress at that time. Therefore, the development of telecommunication network in China is very popular, and now there are more than 500 million telephone users (including mobile phones). Globally, since the disintegration of AT&T in 1984, the telecommunications industry in the United States has undergone tremendous changes. The rapid development of the United States has led to the development of telecommunications equipment and the construction of telecommunications networks, which has far exceeded the consumption of information applications at that time, resulting in a large surplus of network equipment and network infrastructure. As a direct result, a large number of telecom companies have fallen into bankruptcy or poor management.

In China, we can see several trends: one is the integration of consumer appliances such as televisions and computers, and the integration of information technology and communication technology, which fundamentally changes the rules of the game and the competition pattern in the traditional communication field. Our country has evolved from a monopoly of China Telecom to a state in which several major operators compete with each other in network operation, and there are also many information service providers competing in all directions in information service. The trend of inter-industry integration has gradually accelerated, creating more opportunities for industry development. Industrial integration makes the whole consumer electronic products become the focus of competition among enterprises, such as smart phones, digital TV, mobile TV, digital products and so on. Just now I mentioned that some countries, such as the United States and Britain, such as Vodafone and BT, had to sell their communication networks at low prices because of excessive investment in telecommunications and serious problems in governance policies, mainly in the auction of mobile licenses. This in turn gives China, Japan and South Korea, which have developed into IT powers, a good opportunity. Recently, China Netcom Group acquired the whole network of Asia Telecom. China operators not only provide telecommunication services in China, but also start to provide telecommunication services and network access services to the whole world based on the future. This is also a good trend. As far as information technology is concerned, the global IT manufacturing industry is gradually transforming to China. One reason is that China has cheap labor, and the other reason is that the level of workers and the overall IT technology in China has improved rapidly in recent years, which makes China's image as a global IT manufacturing base gradually established. In terms of IT industry market, China has become the largest IT industry market in the world, attracting global equipment manufacturers, terminal manufacturers and technology research and development institutions to focus on China. The application of new technology has made rapid progress in China. For example, flash memory, which is widely used by people, has been rapidly applied in only two years. There is QQ, which is actually a small project studied by a research group of Guangdong Telecom-instant messaging. Last year, its income exceeded 500 million yuan, which had a great influence on the Internet.

In the process of global information technology industry reform and adjustment, China's information industry has maintained a relatively rational and steady pace, which has enabled China telecom operators to maintain sustained growth under the global turmoil. Internet information service providers in China began to walk out of the trough and enter the spring after the global IT industry fell into the ice age for just over a year. In the global IT industry downturn, China equipment manufacturers can quickly seize the opportunity, and now they have products with independent intellectual property rights on high-,medium-and low-end devices on the Internet, which has laid a good foundation and position for our next development. In addition, the rapid growth of network equipment in China in recent years, including the terminal market, will continue to grow in the next year or two, driven by the growth in previous years. Not long ago, we conducted an analysis. At the end of this year and early next year, there will be nearly 1 100 million netizens in China. This first 1 100 million is relatively easy to achieve, but it is more difficult to reach 200 million. This requires the application of the city, the application of the Internet, the application of IT technology and the combination of the Internet and everyone's work and life to become an indispensable part of everyone. After the second billion, it will be very difficult to reach the third or fourth billion. Because on the whole, the overall development level of national income and national economy must reach an appropriate level. The development of the Internet depends on the overall development level of the national economy, and we are actually ahead of the development of the national economy. From the future, we should be very clear that when the number of netizens reaches the third or fourth billion, and when network operators build network scale, the development of the Internet will also be affected by the overall development level of the national economy. The total bandwidth of the IPv4 network under construction in China Telecom alone exceeds 2,500 g, which is a very huge number, and the information content it can carry and the services it can provide to the public are very huge. The concept of 2500 G is that if the home Internet uses the dedicated bandwidth of 1 megabit, it can serve 25 million users. In fact, everyone is using * * * bandwidth, and the basic function of daily home Internet access has basically met everyone's use. After 2005 and 2006, the construction speed of IPv4 network will also slow down. At the same time, we can see that the construction of IPv6 is gradually developing, and several major operators, including education network and science and technology network, have participated in the construction of IPv6 experimental network. With the progress of the experiment, the commercial experimental network will be launched soon. According to the habits of China Telecom, China Netcom and China Mobile, the launch speed will be very fast. We preliminarily estimate that IPv6 will occupy the mainstream of domestic Internet around 20 10. At the same time, it should be noted that IPv4 will not exit this market, and both systems will exist for a long time. Because dual-stack routers of IP v4 and IPv6 are very common in network equipment, and the development of high-end routers is also very mature, the use of IPv6 will not affect the development of IPv4 services.

Looking back, we can see that in the past 10 years, the development of Internet in China has made great and brilliant achievements. The Internet provides an information platform for the people of China to understand the world. On this information platform, netizens in China and people in China choose what they know. Traditionally, the information we receive, from newspapers, radio and television to mutual communication, is one-way. From the traditional concept of thousands of years, the mode that everyone accepts information is a top-down information transmission mode that everyone pays attention to, believes and accepts. The emergence of the Internet has given people equal and flat access to information, which makes people realize what information is and what information they need. At the same time, when people obtain information, they will find their due power in the process of publishing information and obtaining information, and then people will find their due power in society. I think this is a great change in thinking, consciousness and innovative ideas brought by the Internet to China society and ordinary people. At present, everyone looks at QQ, ICQ or online community appearing on the Internet with a normal heart. When we look at these new things 10 years ago, we should first look at whether these things have been recognized by the government or whether their popular ideas are acceptable. Now, our ideas, consciousness and ideas about innovation are fundamentally different from those in the past. The Internet has given everyone the right to exchange, communicate and obtain information on the Internet on an equal footing, which was not available to any media in the past, and was also unavailable to the people of China. It fundamentally changed the mindset brought by China people's deep-rooted feudal consciousness for thousands of years. The development of Internet can really make the wisdom of China1300 million people create infinite power for the future development of China. This equal platform provides opportunities for everyone to achieve.

At the same time, we should see that the rapid development of the Internet has brought many problems. We are very nervous about network resources, with only 50 million resources, but nearly 1 100 million users. By applying to APNIC and Verisign, we reached an agreement with Verisign to move one of Verisign's servers to China, which is of great significance to our domestic Internet interoperability.

There are some problems in internet resources, internet market business model, management mode, business norms and online behavior norms. During the development of the Internet, our domestic practitioners are constantly exploring how to find their own business model and how to find their own lifestyle. At the recent Internet conference, experts, industry elites and leaders from all walks of life made tit-for-tat explorations in this regard, and the online response was enthusiastic. On the other hand, the government's information networking development policy is also a process of gradual exploration and maturity. We have long made clear the principle of "actively developing, strengthening management, seeking advantages and avoiding disadvantages", but in the specific implementation process, many online businesses still have problems of overlapping functions and unclear division of labor, which also leads to some problems in network development and management. This is also the process that the government gradually considers and explores Internet management and Internet development from the overall national strategy. There will be more mature, loose and appropriate policies and measures in formulating policies, regulations and codes of conduct.

The problem of network security should be very serious, such as hacking, network theft, network fraud and network virus. The operation of network operators has formed a relatively fixed concept, which is more secure. The profit model of information service providers is relatively monotonous, which will affect their long-term development and service provision. There is still a lot of junk information and harmful information on the Internet. In June this year 10, we opened the website of news information service working committee and illegal and bad information reporting center in internet society of china. After the website was opened, the whole society responded positively. We promptly reported the situation to the relevant government departments, and more than a dozen ministries and commissions jointly took measures to control the bad information on the Internet, especially the pornographic information on pornographic websites. This meets the needs of the public and netizens, and it is also the voice of society. The association has also carried out anti-spam work, including promoting government legislation, organizing technical exchanges and strengthening international cooperation. At the beginning of July, we had a statistic that the United States ranked first in the global spam export volume, and its spam accounted for 73% to 74%. The largest spam server in the world is China, because 74% of the spam received by users is delivered to them from the mail server in China. I just got a statistic yesterday. Through the governance of the government, enterprises and industry organizations, the largest spam server country is not China but South Korea. South Korea has accounted for 47% of the global spam servers, while China has dropped from 73% and 74% to 3 1%. This is because the government, industry and industry organizations have taken many actions and achieved certain results, especially after the relevant departments at the provincial, municipal and county levels inspected the servers and IDC computer rooms.

At present, China's information resources are still very scarce. Two years ago, a company slogan "Chinese will become the first language on the Internet by 2007", but now the online Chinese information resources only account for 3% of the world, even if it doubles every year, it will not reach the goal by 2007. We hope that domestic information service providers and information resource developers will speed up the development of information resources. We must speed up the development and utilization of information resources, especially the online museums, online libraries and other online applications introduced in the online activities of adolescent health organized by the network popular science alliance, whether from the perspective of occupying online information positions, serving the next generation of teenagers and providing online services. In the future, we should increase investment and development in this field. On the one hand, it is necessary to stop the erosion of harmful information on the growth of teenagers by reporting illegal and bad information, on the other hand, it is necessary to provide them with healthy information, so that they can gain useful knowledge during their growth and make the Internet develop healthily.

Online behavior should also be gradually standardized. This concept of freedom, no management and no law in American Internet is still deeply rooted in people's hearts and the world. Everyone once thought that any behavior on the internet should not be regulated and should not be regulated. The problems that appear now make people realize more and more that it is really necessary to regulate and manage online behavior. Online behavior should also abide by the moral norms in real life and be bound by the rules of real society. Internet abuse takes advantage of the excellent characteristics of the Internet, and practitioners, industry organizations and the government need to take further actions. On September 2nd, we issued internet society of china's Internet E-mail Service Specification, which can be said to be the first professional specification for Internet application in China and even in the world. We have also communicated with the international community many times. Although e-mail is the most popular application, it is very complicated to solve the spam problem, which involves network management, technology and standardization. After 5438+1 October1USA enacted the anti-spam bill in June this year, the spam kept rising at a rate of 2% per month. It can be seen that these problems cannot be solved by law alone without the active participation of the industry and the active support and cooperation of all parties. Therefore, the e-mail specification we issued tries to set the first rule in the field of Internet application services, and suppliers know that e-mail services should have quality and guarantee; Users know their obligations and rights when they enjoy e-mail services, whether they are charged or free, so that everyone can establish a standardized consciousness in this regard. At present, 14 enterprises have clearly stated in writing that they voluntarily participate in and abide by the service standards, and the number of users provided by these enterprises has accounted for more than 80% of the registered users of e-mail in China. This matter will continue to advance in depth. The standardization of e-mail service is a start. We will gradually standardize other services on the Internet, so that Internet users can believe that the services provided on the Internet are reliable and the Internet is no longer the enemy of parents. Only when the Internet becomes credible and reassuring can parents and teachers be assured that their children can surf the Internet freely.

Internet abuse has become the trend of globalization. Now an international spammer organization has been formed, and spammers, order collectors and their partners send spam to all parts of the world in this way, circumventing the anti-spam laws that have been formulated by various countries. For example, they accept global orders from the United States, collect and sort out e-mail addresses, and then send them to middlemen in Canada, who will allocate orders and formulate settlement methods. The middlemen then send orders to China or South Korea, and their partners or agents then forward spam back to the United States through a large number of domain names and virtual hosts registered in China. The purpose of forwarding it back to the United States is to circumvent the laws that have been promulgated in the United States. Spam is only one of the problems, and the abuse of the Internet has gradually formed a global and international criminal organization on the Internet. Therefore, at this stage, we should take measures to combat network abuse from a series of aspects such as legislation, management and policy. With the emergence of spam, some anti-spam organizations have emerged. They published blacklists in an attempt to prevent spam from entering their email users. However, due to the lack of uniform norms and basic rules in the world, the published blacklist will publish a large number of IP address segments in many cases. Internet society of china has also published a blacklist, and if they send spam, these addresses will be published. Blacklists published by organizations such as Spamhaus and Spamcop are fragments of addresses, which may include128,256 or even tens of thousands of IP addresses in China. He thinks that some connected addresses in these IP address segments send spam, so he regards the whole address segment as the source of spam. Hundreds of thousands of mail service providers all over the world will block all the information of this address segment in China according to the IP address published by him. On this network segment, we do have individual users, such as a few or a dozen users, who send spam. The normal mail communication of hundreds of thousands or even millions of users on this network segment is interrupted. Therefore, we should not only formulate anti-spam policies, but also appeal to the international community and repeatedly communicate against the method of publishing address segments. Because it is unfair to China when allocating address resources, we have a large number of dynamic IP addresses in use, which is unfair not only to China, but also to developing countries. When we attended the ITU meeting in July, the Zambian representative stood up and said that we supported the action against spam, but now there is a problem, that is, developed countries transfer spam to developing countries. All IP addresses in Zambia are blacklisted and all external communications are blocked. Developed countries have sufficient IP addresses, do not worry about a certain address segment, and rarely use dynamic IP. Only countries with insufficient IP addresses face these problems, which is unfair and unfair. Although there are many good things on the Internet, there are also many things that you will never encounter. Behind them are conflicts between countries' economic interests and interests in all aspects.

The obvious trend in the future is the popularization of broadband services and various mobile terminals, such as more and more camera phones, which actually have a huge demand for network bandwidth and spectrum. The construction and application of full broadband will further promote the overall development of the network. The research, development and construction of next generation Internet technologies such as IPv6 and grid will make significant progress in the future. On the other hand, from the process of organizing the China Internet Development Report last year, we can see that China's Internet manufacturing industry has made many breakthroughs in the research and development of network equipment, including high-,medium-and low-end products with independent intellectual property rights. We now have many mail service providers and technology providers actively researching and developing network standards. This aspect is something that we should strengthen internationally. On the other hand, the Internet is more closely integrated with traditional industries. With the popularization of e-government and the improvement of relevant legal measures, such as the Electronic Signature Law passed some time ago, only on the basis of establishing social credit mechanism can e-commerce be truly developed. The emergence of a large number of electronic communities has also made the application of the Internet more and more extensive. The mode of Internet operation and survival will also be more abundant. Practitioners in the Internet industry have firm information about their future development. In the past, people used to browse information, use e-mail and play online games on the Internet, and regarded the Internet as an advanced information technology toy. With the development of the Internet, toys can become tools and indispensable tools for people's daily life and work. The popularization of e-government will promote this process. Network services will be gradually standardized. This standardization is a long-term process, which can not be achieved in a day or two, nor can it be achieved by the government issuing documents or calling on industry organizations. Need the understanding of practitioners. When everyone realizes that everyone can survive well in this industry when they are standardized, this standardization has practical value. The application of the network is also more open, involving all aspects, including social affairs. Many government websites put government affairs on their own websites, such as soliciting opinions and local grassroots elections, which makes the application of the network more open and diversified. Although the research on network security technology is getting deeper and deeper, the characteristics of the network itself, that is, simplicity and cheapness, make its security problems still outstanding. Especially after the appearance of IPv6, its security and service quality will be greatly improved, and the network security problems of IPv6 will also appear in the future. We hope that network information should be people-oriented, especially the theme of this year's Internet conference is to build a prosperous and honest Internet. As an information platform, more than 50% of its users are teenagers under the age of 30, so the network built for teenagers should be credible and healthy, and should become friends and assistants in the process of teenagers' growth. Popular science websites and units that provide spiritual food information resources development still need to do a lot of work in this respect. I hope that school teachers and parents will become experts in using the Internet, and don't be afraid to use the Internet. Nowadays, children are more skilled than parents in using the Internet, which is also an important reason why parents don't let their children surf the Internet. We hope that in the future, parents can know which websites are beneficial to their children and can guide their children to browse which websites. In this way, school teachers and parents will become keen on learning the Internet. PFP service will have a great impact on the future network structure and network security, which is the concern of Internet technology development and policy control departments. Network education will be the next hot spot of Internet business. Internet search, large-capacity e-mail, e-commerce platform, mobile Internet, wireless local area network, network resource information development and other services will all become hot issues in Internet business. There will be powerful personal terminals and * * * information resources in the future.

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