Autobots inverted the word "V" in the first half of the year, and car companies bet on the third quarter.

In the first half of 2020, China's industries, including the automobile industry, realized a "V"-shaped reversal. In June, the profits of industrial enterprises above designated size achieved double-digit growth. In the traditional off-season, automobile sales achieved a year-on-year high growth trend.

Text/Autobots Scroll

According to the data of the National Bureau of Statistics, in the first half of 2020 (1-June), the total profits of industrial enterprises above designated size in China decreased 12.8% year-on-year.

From June to June this year, the year-on-year decline in total profits of industrial enterprises above designated size narrowed to-12.8%. Among them, the year-on-year growth rate of total profit in June rebounded to 1 1.5%. There are three reasons for realizing double-digit growth: first, the growth of both ends of industrial supply and demand is not reduced; Secondly, the decline in the price of industrial products has further narrowed; Third, it can reduce the unit cost. Since the second quarter, the profit growth rate of industrial enterprises has rebounded month by month, and the year-on-year growth rate has turned positive from -36.7% in the first quarter to 4.8% in the second quarter.

In terms of income, the year-on-year decline in the income of industrial enterprises narrowed to -5.2% from June to June. Among them, the revenue growth rate rebounded to 4.2% in June.

It is noteworthy that the profits of key upstream industries, such as steel, oil and gas exploration, petroleum processing and non-ferrous metals, have been greatly improved due to the recovery of market demand, rising prices of industrial products, slowing down the cost pressure of enterprises and the effect of relevant supporting policies. These four industries contributed 60% of the profit growth of industrial enterprises in June.

According to the National Bureau of Statistics, the profit of the automobile manufacturing industry increased by 26% in the second quarter of 2020. In contrast, the first quarter fell by 80% year-on-year. In the first two quarters, the income of the automobile manufacturing industry decreased by 8% in the first half of the year, and the total profit decreased by 20.7% year-on-year. It can be seen that the leverage effect of the automobile industry is obvious.

Among them, there are two main reasons for the rapid growth of profits in the automobile industry in the second quarter: first, the inventory of the national five models in the automobile industry was cleared in the second quarter of 2065438+2009, which made enterprises bear higher quarterly promotion expenses; Second, in the first quarter of 2020, affected by the epidemic, consumer demand was delayed, and the demand for upgrades such as redemption and purchase increase was postponed to the second quarter.

According to the data of the Federation, the retail sales of passenger cars decreased by 1 1% in the first three weeks of July, and the wholesale sales increased by 8% year-on-year. According to the latest data of China Automobile Association, in the first half of July, the wholesale volume of automobiles of 1 1 major enterprises increased by 36.5% year-on-year. Among them, the wholesale volume of passenger cars increased by 34%, and the wholesale sales of commercial vehicles increased by 62%.

The wholesale volume is obviously stronger than the retail volume, indicating that the automobile industry is still in the stage of channel replenishment. In the same period of last year, due to the switch between five cars and six cars in the middle of the year, the launch speed of six cars with independent brands was slow, which led to the slow pace of channel replenishment in July 2065438+2009, and the overall smooth distribution of goods in the second half of 2020, so the wholesale volume in the current period increased relatively year-on-year.

The statistical time interval between the Federation of Automobile Associations and the China Automobile Association is different, and the data are not small, but the data of the two organizations show that the automobile sales data in China is still expanding in the first few weeks of July. Past experience is that July and August are the traditional off-season of the year, but this July is uncharacteristic. Car companies are still replenishing inventory through channels, indicating that car companies are optimistic about the market outlook, at least optimistic about the extraordinary performance in the traditional off-season (the third quarter), and it goes without saying that the fourth quarter is the peak season for impulse.

Some analysts believe that in the second quarter of 2020, the profit of the automobile industry increased relatively year-on-year, which was caused by the low base in the same period last year and the result of the explosion of demand and channel inventory in the second quarter. Subsequent industry recovery may be repeated, but the changing trend has been determined. Japanese brands, German luxury brands and first-line independent brands are now more eye-catching.

Due to the irrational expansion of the industry in previous years, the current capacity utilization rate of the industry is insufficient, which has led to a sharp decline in fixed assets investment in the automobile industry this year. Nevertheless, the investment of R&D enterprises continues to grow. The competition threshold of the automobile industry is gradually moving from large-scale to scientific and technological competition, and at the same time entering the stage of soft power competition such as platform and intelligence.

Through data observation, it is not difficult to find that the new energy vehicle market continues to be sluggish, and the recovery growth rate is far less than that of passenger cars.

For example, in June, the number of new energy passenger cars insured was only 77,400, down 59% year-on-year. However, Tesla topped the list with15,000 vehicles, accounting for an astonishing 19.4%. In the second quarter of 2020, the average bicycle price was 57,000 USD, about 400,000 RMB, with a gross profit margin of 25.43%. This shows that the COVID-19 epidemic has little impact on Tesla's business. At the same time, the sales volume of Weilai automobile climbed, and its market share in new energy B-class vehicles reached 6. 1%.

It can be seen that the driving force for the expansion of the new energy vehicle market comes from the supply side, and competitive high-quality vehicle products can drive the market demand to increase. Models? Best-selling is a strong proof. Therefore, the decline of the new energy vehicle market is mainly due to the lack of explosion support in the market below A-class vehicles.

In the first half of 2020, China's industries, including the automobile industry, realized a "V"-shaped reversal. In June, the profits of industrial enterprises above designated size achieved double-digit growth. In the traditional off-season, automobile sales achieved a year-on-year high growth trend. It can be expected that the auto market will have a good performance in the third quarter of this year and even the whole second half of this year. (Text/"Autobots" scrolling, some pictures are from the network) Copyright statement This article is the exclusive original manuscript of "Autobots Media", and the copyright belongs to "Autobots Media".

This article comes from car home, the author of the car manufacturer, and does not represent car home's position.