General trend of transformation of consumption structure from low level to high level

The level of service consumption is an important symbol reflecting the quality of life of residents. However, for a long time people have lacked attention to service consumption, resulting in a low share of service consumption and slow growth. Under the current situation that urban residents tend to be rigid in their demand for food, clothing and other commodities, expanding service consumption is not only conducive to promoting the upgrading of residents' consumption level and stimulating new growth in consumer demand, but also a key factor in guaranteeing the healthy development of the service industry. Based on the statistical data in recent years, this paper applies the method of multivariate statistical analysis to analyze the current situation of urban residents' service consumption in our city in terms of its characteristics, structural development trend and impact on the industrial economy, with the aim of providing different perspectives for reflection. First, the current situation of service consumption of urban residents in Zhuhai (a) The proportion of service consumption "rises first and then falls", and the phenomenon of emphasizing commodities over services is prominent. According to the national bureau of statistics zhuhai survey team urban household sample survey data show that between 2002-2008 zhuhai urban residents per capita service consumption expenditure from 3938.91 yuan to 5009.62 yuan, an increase of 27.1%, an average annual growth rate of 3.5%, than the same period of the average annual growth rate of consumption expenditure is 4 percentage points lower than the average annual growth rate of commodity consumption expenditure is 5.5% lower than the average annual growth rate of service consumption expenditure is 5.5% lower than the average annual growth rate of commodity consumption expenditure. expenditure and 5.2 percentage points lower than the average annual growth rate of commodity-based consumption expenditure. The growth rate of service consumption expenditure lags behind that of commodity consumption, which is related to the rapid growth of consumption of bulk commodities such as automobiles and computers purchased by residents in recent years. in 2002, the average number of automobiles owned by every 100 urban households in the city was 7, and home computers were 60, while in 2008, it had already grown to 25.5 automobiles owned by every 100 households, and 85.5 home computers were owned by every 100 households. According to Figure 1, it can be seen that in recent years, the proportion of service consumption in consumer spending has shown a trend of "first up, then down", reaching a maximum value of 36.4% in 2004, then showing a downward trend year by year, and in 2008 fell to a minimum value of 22.9%. The gap between the two shares has gradually widened, and the phenomenon of emphasizing commodity-based consumption over service-based consumption is evident. Unlike the rigid demand for basic commodities such as food and clothing, the demand for service-based consumption is more elastic, and its reflection of residents' consumption expectations is more obvious. When people expect the economic situation to develop favorably, they will increase service consumption expenditure, and vice versa, they will compress service consumption expenditure. Therefore, under the situation of the financial crisis last year, the decline in the proportion of service consumption is also reflected more prominently. Figure 1: Service consumption of Zhuhai residents from 2002 to 2008 (2) In service consumption, communication, catering and education are "three-legged". In terms of the internal structure of service consumption, communication, catering and education account for nearly half of the total service consumption expenditure, playing a pivotal role. As can be seen from the table below, among the "eight categories" of service consumption, transportation and communication services accounted for the largest share, remaining at over 36% in the past five years. Among them, communication services are the main part, accounting for more than half of the cost of transportation and communication services, and accounting for more than 19% of the overall consumption of services. This is not unrelated to the popularization of communication equipment and the Internet in recent years, and people's increased demand for information. per capita communication service expenses reached RMB 974.35 in 2008, an increase of 32.8% over 2002, with an average daily consumption of RMB 2.67 per person. Improved transportation conditions and increased travel convenience have also stimulated the consumption of transportation services, with per capita expenditure on transportation services amounting to RMB 854.02 in 2008, of which expenditure on transportation services and transportation fees increased by 15.5% and 3.9% on an annual average basis respectively compared with 2002. Catering service consumption still occupies an important position as a major driving force of the traditional service industry, ranking second in service consumption. The proportion of the city's residents' expenditure on eating out has gradually increased over the past five years, from 14.4% of the total in 2004 to 17.2% in 2008. On the contrary, in the third place of education, culture and recreation services, the proportion of education services has shown a decreasing trend in the last two years. 2008 education expenses for city residents amounted to 599.96 yuan, a decrease of 28.8% compared with 2004. This is mainly due to the fact that the city began to implement 12-year free education in 2007, increased financial subsidies, and effectively reduced or waived tuition fees for compulsory and high school education, reducing the burden of residents on education expenses. : the total share of eating out 14.416.714.917.017.22, clothing processing services 0.10.20.20.20.13, household services 2.52.92.11.93.54, medical services 6.67.14.55.25.25, transportation and communication services 36.540.736.036.636.5 Of which: communication services 21.121.036.636.5 21.121.020.119.119.46, education, culture and recreation services 28.023.030.929.222.5 of which: education services accounted for a total of 18.115.219.816.512.07, residential services 8.25.47.05.510.18, other services 3.54.54.45.54.8 II. Factor Analysis of Service Consumption Structure Service consumption expenditure is the cost of people paying for various non-commodity services provided by the society in terms of culture and life, including 15 sub-items such as the cost of food processing services, eating and drinking outside the home, the cost of clothing processing services, and household services. According to common division criteria, they can be categorized into eight major categories such as food and beverage services, clothing processing services and household services. In order to extract the key factors affecting the demand for service consumption and to y analyze the structural level of service consumption, this paper conducts a factor analysis on the data of the eight categories of service consumption in Zhuhai from 1999 to 2008. Factor analysis was proposed by psychologist Chales Spearman in 1904, aiming to reduce the intricate measured variables to a few factors to reveal the intrinsic correlation among variables, simplify the data dimensions, and facilitate the discovery of laws or essence. Its basic principle is to group the variables according to the size of correlation, so that the correlation between variables in the same group is high and the correlation between variables in different groups is low. Each group of variables represents a basic structure, and this structure is interpreted in terms of public **** factors. (i) Data Selection and Evaluation. According to the formula for the composition of service consumption, this paper selects the eight major consumption expenditures that constitute service consumption in the calendar years 1999-2008 as variables. Among them, in 1999-2001, some of the indicators whose category division was different from the subsequent years were recalculated and categorized. Through the processing of SPSS statistical analysis software, KMO & Bartlett test was conducted, resulting in a KMO value of 0.623, between 0.5 and 1.0, indicating that the data selection is suitable for the use of factor analysis. (ii) Principal factor imputation. SPSS statistical analysis software was used to factor analyze the data, resulting in the eigenvalues of the correlation coefficient matrix between the variables, the variance contribution rate and the cumulative variance contribution rate are as follows: Table 2: The list of principal components (Total Variance Explained) Initial EigenvaluesExtraction Sums of Squared LoadingsRotation Sums of Squared Loadings Common Factor Eigenvalues Variance Contribution Cumulative Contribution Eigenvalues Variance Contribution Cumulative Contribution Eigenvalues Variance Contribution Cumulative Contribution Eigenvalues Variance Contribution Cumulative Contribution 15.07763.45763.4575.07763.45763.4573.47043. 37943.37921.25715.70979.1671.25715.70979.1672.49731.20774.5853.7569.45588.622.7569.45588.6221.12314.03788.6224.4205.25193.873 5.3374.21298.085 68.939E-021.11799.202 75.831E-02.72999.931 85.521E-036.902E-02100.000 It can be seen that the eigenvalue of the first male factor is 5.077, which explains 63.457% of the total variance of the original eight original variables, i.e., the contribution of variance of this factor is 63.457%. contributes 63.457% of the total variance of the original eight original variables, i.e. the factor's variance contribution rate is 63.457%. In order to achieve a cumulative contribution rate of 85% or more, the first three common factors were selected. Overall, the first three male factors explained 88.622% of the original variables with less information loss. After selecting the principal factors, in order to highlight the typical variable representativeness of each factor and to facilitate the interpretation of the factors, it is necessary to rotate the factor loading matrix so that the squares of the factor loadings are polarized by column. The factor loading matrices after orthogonal rotation with great variance are shown in the following table Table 3: Factor Loadings Matrix after Orthogonal Rotation (Rotated Component Matrix) Factor F1F2F3 Medical Services.950.193-.140 Transportation and Communication Services.884.428-7.124E-02 Household Services.839.321.278 Food and Beverage Services. 798.447.143 Other services .197.923-5.692E-03 Education, culture and recreation services .419.754-.165 Clothing services .480.734-.108 Residential services 4.163E-02-.117.981 From the rotated factor loading matrix: Indicators that have high loadings on the first common factor (the first column) are medical services, Transportation and communication services, household services and food and beverage services, these expenditures include the basic necessities of residents' lives, so the first common factor F1 is named the survival consumption factor. The indicators with high loadings on the second common factor (column 2) include other services, education, culture and recreation services, and clothing services, which reflect people's deeper demand for enjoying a high quality of life after solving the problem of food and clothing, so the second common factor F2 is named as enjoyment-oriented consumption factor. The only indicator with high loadings on the third common factor (the third column) is residential services, which is the residents' demand for improving their own living environment and that of their surroundings, so the third common factor F3 is named as the environment-based consumption factor. (iii) Factor trend analysis. In order to further reveal the change trend of the factor, we can use the regression method to derive the factor scores of each year through the factor score coefficient matrix to make a trend chart as follows: Figure 2: Factor scores of each year from 1999 to 2008 As can be seen from Figure 2, the overall trend of the three main factors in this decade is undulating upward, indicating that with the development of the macro-economy and the increase of residents' income, the level of residents' service consumption has been increasing. It shows that with the macroeconomic development and the increase of residents' income, the increasing level of residents' service consumption is the inevitable direction of development. Among them, the first and second factors show a staggered trend, while the second and third factors have a more synchronized trend, mainly due to the fact that the limited nature of income distribution makes it necessary to focus on both subsistence consumption and enjoyment consumption, and the residents' demand for improving the living environment is a further pursuit of development after the basic life has been guaranteed and the material needs have been satisfied. This is also in line with the general trend of transformation of the consumption structure from low level to high level, i.e. the proportion of physical consumption is gradually shrinking and the proportion of labor consumption is increasing accordingly; the proportion of subsistence consumption is gradually shrinking and the proportion of enjoyment and development consumption is increasing accordingly. The first common factor showed a sharp increase between 2002 and 2005, and then gradually fell back, while the second common factor experienced a decline and then a low-to-high stage during the same period, which is due to the fact that after the macro-control of deflation and soft-landing of the economy in the previous few years, the national economy has entered into a new upward cycle, and the residents' desire to consume has been released in a new round, and the basic survival type of Consumption prioritized growth, with the improvement of income, enjoyment consumption gradually increased, further driving the demand for the improvement of the living environment, pulling the third public factor upward trend. This has been evidenced in the hot real estate market and rising housing prices and renovation of property management costs in recent years. The financial crisis in 2008 has lowered residents' expectations for expected income, and enjoyment-based consumption has reached an inflection point. Ways to promote service consumption growth and structural upgrading. The reasons for the current insufficient demand for service consumption and the low level of consumption structure are multifaceted, which are related to the level of economic development at this stage, and also affected by the uneven structure of the service industry itself, and the low degree of industrialization and socialization. To solve these problems also need to start from the following ways: accelerate the service industry industry upgrade, broaden the new service areas. The relationship between service consumption and service industry is essentially a relationship between supply and demand. Improvement in the level of service consumption is bound to stimulate the development of the service industry, the same service industry will also promote the release of service consumption demand. This can be seen in the following chart, in the last decade, the proportion of service consumption in consumption expenditure and the proportion of added value of the tertiary industry in the regional GDP have almost grown in tandem. Figure 3: Development of Service Consumption and Service Industry in Zhuhai, 1999-2008 As for the current development of the service industry in the city, there are still problems of low proportion of the service industry, the supply not being able to satisfy the demand, and the backwardness of the internal structure. 2008, the proportion of the value-added of the tertiary industry in the city was 42.4%, which is 2.7 percentage points down compared with the highest value in 2004. 2.7 percentage points. Compared with major cities in China, this proportion is still on the low side. In the internal structure of service industry, traditional industries such as transportation and communication, storage industry and commercial and beverage industry are still the main body, and the development of new information service industry and modern service industry is still weak. Therefore, in order to raise the proportion of service consumption and promote the upgrading of the consumption structure, it is necessary to vigorously promote the total growth of the service industry and industrial upgrading. While continuing to develop the traditional service industry, we should explore new service areas, develop new types of service projects, and increase investment and policy guidance. Give full play to Zhuhai's location advantage of being adjacent to Hong Kong and Macao and its inherent characteristics of a beautiful natural environment, and look for new bright spots in transportation consumption and tourism and leisure demand. Attracting and training high-quality service industry talents and standardizing the standards of service industry practice. The service industry is often referred to as a reservoir of employment, and the water in the pool is clear or turbid also determines whether the reservoir is to develop and grow or become a stagnant swamp. Therefore, attracting and cultivating high-quality talents in the service industry has a bearing on whether the service industry can develop in a healthy and orderly manner in the long run. As can be seen from Figure 3, this year, the city's service industry employees accounted for the proportion of all employees has been in 45% to 50% of the floating between the last two years, although showing an upward trend, but has not exceeded 50%. This level in the province is in the forefront, but with the developed countries more than 70% of the level is still a gap. At the same time, the long-standing traditional concepts and the lack of standardized training system often results in a high turnover rate of service industry personnel, practitioners are not highly educated, low degree of specialization, and confusing service standards and other issues. This requires the establishment and improvement of talent incentive mechanism, to create a good environment for attracting and using talents, and vigorously cultivate high-quality, specialized service personnel. At the same time, through the standardization of service industry standards, strengthen the development of service standards, so that the quality of service products to improve, and promote the industrialization of the service industry and the level of socialization. Raise the income level of residents and promote the formation of good future expectations. Income level is the most important factor restricting the growth of residents' service consumption. Therefore, the most important thing to boost consumption is to increase household income. But in the short-term income level is sufficient to meet the basic needs of life, according to Friedman's "lasting income hypothesis" and Rand's "preventive savings theory", people in the planning of consumption will also take into account the long-term, lasting income, and when the future income is uncertain, will use the method of increasing savings. When future income is uncertain, people will increase their savings to prevent the risk of income uncertainty. This mentality is particularly evident in our current consumer base. With the implementation of reforms, the impact of uncertainty in the lives of residents is growing, employment, medical care, social security, housing system is in the process of continuous reform and improvement, which increases people's expectations of future expenditures, so that the residents of the risk awareness to strengthen the influence of the increase in the rate of consumption. And service consumption is more elastic relative to income, so the proportion has been growing slowly for a long time. Promote residents to form good future expectations, need to speed up the reform of housing, medical and education and other systems, increase system transparency, relieve residents of worries about consumption; improve the social credit system, guide the change in consumer attitudes, promote the development of credit consumption, and thus broaden the consumption space. Residents of the future income expectations increased, in order to make the service consumption can be promoted, so that the consumption structure has been upgraded.