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Lewis' turning point process
From the first stage to the second stage, the labor force changed from surplus to shortage, the corresponding labor supply curve began to tilt upward, and the labor wage level began to increase. Economics calls the intersection of the first stage and the second stage "lewis turning point".
1972, Lewis published a paper entitled "Reflections on Infinite Labor Force". In this paper, Lewis proposed two turning points. When the development of dual economy shifts from the first stage to the second stage, the labor force shifts from unlimited supply to shortage. At this time, due to the pressure of the traditional agricultural sector, the wages of the modern industrial sector began to rise, and the first turning point, "Lewis's first turning point" began to come. After the arrival of the "Lewis first turning point" and the development of the dual economy to the second stage of labor shortage, with the continuous improvement of agricultural labor productivity, the agricultural surplus is further increased, the rural surplus labor force is further released, and the rapid development of the modern industrial sector is enough to exceed the population growth, and the wages of this sector will eventually rise.
When the marginal products of traditional agricultural sector and modern industrial sector are equal, that is to say, the wage levels of traditional agricultural sector and modern industrial sector are roughly equal, it means that an integrated urban and rural labor market has been formed, and the whole economy, including the allocation of labor force, has been completely commercialized. Economic development will end the surplus state of dual economy and begin to change to the dual economy state mentioned by neoclassical school. At this time, the second turning point, "Lewis's second turning point" began to come. Obviously, the connotations of "Lewis first turning point" and "Lewis second turning point" are different and both have symbolic significance. The arrival of the former has prepared the necessary preconditions for the realization of the latter, but the significance of the latter is decisive. Compared with the three-stage division in Jinghan Fei-Ranis model, the transition point from the first stage to the second stage in this model is "Lewis first inflection point" and the transition point from the second stage to the third stage is "Lewis second inflection point".
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