How is the website profitable? How to calculate the cost?

Let's first analyze how a user is attracted to the website.

Generally speaking, customers have to go through such a process: from clicking/page viewing when surfing the Internet, to being stuck by content, to being attracted by professional and personalized customized services, to being registered as a loyal customer of a website, and finally being moved by professional and personalized services and starting to pay. This is a customer's demand for the website. For the sake of customers, he paid: time and energy for surfing the Internet; Fees-including network telephone charges and network usage fees, as well as the fees paid for online shopping; Privacy-You have to sacrifice some privacy in order to let others serve you better. The price I pay is that I receive 20 or 30 emails from wheelie trash can every day.

What a website gets is: 1. Cost. After getting a high click-through rate, you can collect some advertising revenue. Of course, the more sticky your content is, the higher your advertising revenue will be. The cost of ISP access, that is, the length of time users spend on your internet; Information sharing fees, such as online games, can be shared with 169; Fees paid by e-commerce, including purchasing goods, professional database query, stock trading services, etc.; 2. assets. It is more important for commercial websites to obtain information assets, including intangible assets, such as website popularity, especially portal websites, which are measured by click-through rate, click-through rate plus customer stay time; The value of customer information, after customer registration, can obtain customer information, analyze customer needs and provide customized services to make customers more satisfied; Information integration: after the network is opened, all kinds of information are gradually accumulated and collected into various classified databases accordingly; Extensible technical support platform, in the interaction with customers, forms a unique extensible technical platform of the website, and can continuously increase content and service means, mature and extensible brand image, organizational structure and workflow on this platform with the changes of market and customer needs.

It is a common method for investment banks to summarize the revenue flow of a website through customer analysis, which mainly includes the following indicators: 1. Page views-click rate; 2. Residence time-viscosity; 3. Return visit rate-loyalty; 4. payment. This is the basic standard for the future revenue and asset pricing of the website. The earliest model used by Goldman Sachs to evaluate portals is the so-called SteveHarmon model, from which Yahoo got it! The value of each customer is $798, which can roughly estimate the value of each customer, and then calculate the market value of the website in turn according to the growth rate of customers; With the enrichment of website content, especially the development of Internet from information search to virtual community in recent three years, the stickiness of content has gradually become an evaluation index, so the model for measuring website value is = number of views * residence time, while Goldman Sachs thinks that AOL's customer value exceeds Yahoo! . The rapid development of e-commerce since 1999 has made the number of registered customers more and more significant-that is, customer loyalty and customer information are of great significance to sellers. Yahoo! From a single portal to providing a large number of personalized services, the number of registered customers has increased significantly, thus obtaining huge intermediary income and evolving into a portal for e-commerce. Successful transformation is the source of its high stock price performance, and it also proves that registered customers have become a more valuable group from some angles, so the first evaluation method is improved to market value/registered customer value. Through the analysis of the growth rate of registered users, the intangible benefits brought by registered customers-the customer's payment rate and ability to pay are counted. The commonly used index is the price/sales rate model.

Another content that can't be ignored in the evaluation of commercial websites is the expected analysis of the future. As we all know, if Internet companies don't represent the future business model, companies like Amazon, which have been losing money for five or six years in a row, may now be valued at only $5 instead of $300, so it is difficult to evaluate future expectations from the perspective of mathematical analysis. However, relative indicators are very useful to describe customer value and also play an important role in evaluating the value of website companies seeking listing. According to the principle of data disclosure of listed companies in China, the income/discounted cash flow method method will be the most important method to evaluate the value of online companies. Therefore, in the specific application, the expansion of the expected business platform must be included in the evaluation system, and the expansibility and uniqueness of the website platform should be investigated.

Market/customer demand drives the website to develop into a mature business model step by step. At the same time, the website itself has a supply drive to meet the demand, and the two work together to promote the reform of Internet services.

The value of network technology and commercial operation platform

The establishment of many websites in the Internet field is based on different resources, which can be roughly divided into two types: the early companies were mainly technology-driven, and the founders were all talents or enthusiasts in computer or communication technology, from entertaining themselves to creating distinctive network service models, Yang Zhiyuan and Yahoo! Ding Lei and Netease are both typical representatives. Driven by market interests, they have changed from a network technology platform to a network business platform. The other is from the pure business model, often with a large number of venture capital and business partners to form a new network company, such as Amazon, Yi Bei, China's Sohu, 8848 and so on. Before the middle and late 1990s, it was mainly driven by technology. With the increasing recognition of the network in the capital market, business model has become the most important driving factor for network companies. Technology-driven companies are gradually turning to business model-driven companies, and the role of business operation platform is becoming more and more important. Therefore, it is necessary to deeply study the scalability of technology and the business operation platform as an important factor driven by the value of network companies.

The technology platform should include: access technology-including diversification of access methods, diversification of access equipment and acceleration of access speed; Content technology-due to the rapid development of access technology, the content technology of website development will shift from text-based content development mode to multimedia content; Software technology-mainly the technology that software spans multiple hardware platforms, which requires good adaptability, such as the existing JAVA programming software; Security technology-the core of e-commerce is security, including the security of its own website, database and payment. Applied technology-such as personal communication and interaction skills; Database technology-the ability to support personalization and maximize expansion, as well as potential technological innovation and imitation.

Network virtual business operation platform should include: website prospect and strategy; The expansion of existing scale and future scale, including the expansion of horizontal and vertical platforms; Business model style, such as choosing media business operation or e-commerce, BTOC or BTOB in e-commerce, etc. Delay ability and brand strategy of network brand: marketing ability, including marketing strategy, marketing promotion, distribution system and channel management, inventory and internal value chain; Financial and financing capacity; Ability to absorb and create value; Unique strategic resources and extensive strategic alliances; Wait a minute.

The value of China's network technology platform = the application ability of technology+the adaptability of technological change. A complete technological innovation capability may not be completely suitable for China. If we excessively pursue multimedia technology under the given narrow-band conditions in China, it will affect the application space of technology. In China, not the more advanced technology is the best, but the most practical technology may be the best. Therefore, the highest evaluation standard of technological creation is that the audience of netizens, including potential netizens, such as mobile phone and pager users who are not netizens, may become netizens at once through WAP technology and two-way paging technology. If a technology can create the best cost performance to benefit netizens, or expand potential netizens through a technology, it is a very valuable technology.

The online business virtual platform is more extensible than the traditional business operation platform. Amazon's expansion is faster and wider than physical commerce, from selling books to CDs to toys. Even customers in China buy books directly from Amazon. This growth is unmatched by traditional business, but the website business platform should conform to a series of existing external environments. It should also conform to the laws of traditional business, that is, the external business environment, the deferral of brands, the costs and benefits of joining new business units, etc. That is to say, platform expansion has its objective limitations, so I believe that no matter how the current network companies operate, the trend of specialization in the future is inevitable. In addition, the online business platform can only be realized if it matches the physical business platform. The traditional business platform is built by traditional factors, and now it is impossible to be completely virtual. The website is actually a mixed business model-that is, a mixture of modern and traditional can be more successful. The virtual business platform of information alone cannot complete consumer payment. As the leader of world-class e-commerce, Amazon still needs the traditional "warehouse". No matter how advanced the concept is, 8848 also needs to establish a good distribution system. Therefore, the business platform in China may be "information (including customer value)+virtual business expansion+traditional factors".

It must be pointed out that the Chinese online business platform also needs to include respect for the connotation of new knowledge-that is, a reinterpretation of the "knowledge-based" elements. Under the current legal framework of China company, how to determine the equity of human capital and the corresponding knowledge and goodwill in the internal organization and protect the interests of investors will affect the innovation ability of China Internet companies. Internet network is essentially an innovative enterprise with knowledge as its core competitiveness. If there is no organizational model of knowledge innovation, the core competitiveness will be gone.

The Web analytics Report, the portal of Goldman Sachs, points out that a successful website must have 6c elements: connectivity, context, content, commerce, communication and community. Now it is proposed to turn to the new 6C, that is, convenience, integration, integration, competition, cooperation and customer relationship. Goldman Sachs' research also highlights the problems of customers and technology platforms. In the new 6C, it introduces more technological innovations, such as the diversity of access and access equipment, but more importantly, it introduces business rules, such as customer relationship, cooperation and competition. In this regard, the author appreciates John Hagel III's research on analytic model decomposition in his Network Value, so as to evaluate the value of an online company and its existing and potential competitive advantages in detail. Some scholars have summarized it as follows:

The purpose of investment is to make a profit-investing in the internet also means that network companies can get faster development opportunities. If the network company fails to meet the profit growth expectation all the time, the result will be "bubble burst". Therefore, the psychological expectation of the network can be said to be a matter of life and death. The author thinks that a good network company must have four expected elements.

★ Expand the ability of network service customers.

★ From the leading position of a single service project to the leading position in the industry, it may even be that its own online business platform and model standards have become recognized models with sustainable development capabilities.

★ It has the ability to quickly accommodate various business models, which makes the virtual expansion ability of the business platform on the network resilient, elastic and plastic.

★ It is estimated that cash flow and profit indicators will increase significantly.

According to the research of American Moss Management Consulting Company, the enterprise value of online service basically consists of three parts: customer base, marketing assets (accounting for 40% to 50%), data software and other intellectual property assets (accounting for 30% to 40%) and other tangible assets (accounting for 10% to 20%).

The author believes that although the concept of customer base is very important, its ratio to marketing assets is obviously too high. Internet companies should not only increase their assets, but also find ways to make profits-the so-called business model, so they must add business model and knowledge innovation ability.

Business model affects capital price.

From the perspective of investors, it is bound to show enthusiasm for fast-growing companies that dominate or guide a market. In the United States, investors favor companies such as Yahoo, AOL, Yi Bei and Amazon. They occupy a dominant position in a strategic fast-growing market, and these companies are growing rapidly. Being able to take the lead in the fast-growing market, having an excellent and experienced management team and a feasible and convincing business model will generally be favored by investors.

At present, the business models of Internet companies in China are mostly copied from the United States. In fact, there are various successful business models. But no matter what kind of business model, the concept of cost/profit and the analysis of investment benefit, how much it costs to acquire a user, how much it costs to serve this user, and how much revenue users can bring to the company during the life cycle of using services, these are all problems that cannot be ignored. Taking e-commerce as an example, according to some latest figures disclosed by the Ministry of Information Industry, there are more than 200 domestic e-commerce websites; The total transaction amount reached 200 million yuan from 1999, more than double that of 1998; It is predicted that the last two years will enter a period of rapid growth. It is predicted that by the end of 2000, the transaction volume of e-commerce will reach 800 million yuan, and it is expected to reach 654.38+000 billion yuan in 2002. With such a rapid development momentum, we can fully explore the service mode with China characteristics.

Even in the United States, investors' attitudes towards internet companies have changed significantly compared with previous years, especially in the view of long-term losses, at least different. Specifically, for B2B mode network companies, investors are concerned about whether there is a convincing and successful business model. If the business plan can be implemented in the short or medium term, investors will tolerate temporary losses; Internet companies like Yahoo and Yi Bei are in relatively mature markets, with relatively mature business models and first-class management teams, so investors will pay more attention to profitability. For Amazon, a pioneer commercial company that has been leading the B2C model, from the analysis of various changes at the end of last year, investors are slowly losing patience, because the company is still losing money and the amount of losses is getting bigger and bigger, which has made investors less and less confident in its profits.

If analyzed from the perspective of the capital market, the actual depth and breadth of Internet themes not only far exceed the past, but also completely break through the restrictions of industries and modes of production and reach a higher level. As a theme, the cycle of internet stocks from prosperity to decline will never end in three to five years. In this sense, the popularity of the network concept in the capital market will maintain a rapid upward trend for a long time to come, and the price-earnings ratio of network stocks accepted and recognized by the market is wider. Generally speaking, the fluctuation range of P/E ratio in traditional industries is 5-30 times; The price-earnings ratio of traditional high-tech companies fluctuates between 20- 100 times; The price-earnings ratio of internet stocks is wider than that of traditional high-tech companies. As a kind of knowledge in the international capital market, it is obviously inappropriate to judge the speculation of internet stocks simply by the price-earnings ratio.

1999 domestic internet stocks mainly refer to cable TV networks, but after 2000, internet stocks obviously turned to the internet, which was obviously stimulated by overseas listing. Especially, the successful listing of China. com and a large number of international venture capital entered China, which increased people's imagination of internet companies. China Holding Network Company conforms to the rules of China A-share market, because China stock market is the main board market, and its main feature is to judge the stock price according to the income, while the second board market mainly evaluates the stock by the activity. China's listed companies can promote the growth of network companies by contributing to the holding network. If we can go abroad for financing and listing, listed companies can also get rich returns on assets. In this way, listed companies can not only ensure their own performance, but also lay the foundation for future earnings. The main board market will always evaluate the company according to its performance, and it is impossible to rely entirely on concepts. However, the existing Internet companies in China are basically in a period of investment, and their core is to improve the value of customer groups, the value of virtual business platforms and the interaction with traditional distribution, payment and other business environments, so as to gain asset appreciation.

At present, the author thinks that what foreign investors value most is the business model of the website, or unique resources-for example, China concept, China's Xinhua News Agency; Localized loyal customer groups; Localization distribution system; Website technology and expansibility of business operation platform. So when we measure a website, we should evaluate it from the perspective of an international investment bank. In China, investors' evaluation of listed companies holding Internet companies is definitely "performance+concept". Internet companies may get asset returns in the future, but they can't get returns at present and may need to continue to invest. However, due to the excessive investment of listed companies in their holding network companies, the income of listed companies has fallen seriously, which is very dangerous. In the future, the main income of listed companies holding network companies from network companies will be investment premium, thus increasing the net assets of listed companies.