What is the probability of a bull market within two years?

In terms of trends and cycles, the bull market is not far away, and the probability of a bull market in the next 1-2 years is very high.

This is my personal view.

And now, in the bull and bear conversion period of the bottoming stage, to further consolidate the bottom, complete the re-exchange of chips and concentration, and constantly oscillating consolidation, is the main direction of the stock index at this stage.

The stock market is cyclical, the A-share market bears and bulls conversion time is about 5-7 years, that is to say, the bull market after the top, generally need 5-7 years or so, there will be the next round of bull market.

There is no such thing as a market that only goes up and not down, and there is no such thing as a stock market that only goes down and not up.

Looking at the last 2 bull/bear transitions, the first one was in July 2001 when the stock index peaked, and it took 5 years of bear market to get out of a sharply rising bull market, and the second one was in October 2007 when the stock index peaked, and it took 7 years of bear market to get out of a round of bull market.

The 2006-2007 cross-year bull run was so big that the bear market lasted 7 years, and the 2014-2015 bull run was much smaller than the last one.

And it's now 2020, five years after the end of the last bull market.

The stock index is now tangled at the half-year line at the annual line, and the annual line has been oscillating and consolidating around the annual line after it stood last year. The annual line is the watershed of bulls and bears, only successfully stood on the annual line, only to be qualified to discuss the arrival of the bull market.

And the epidemic and other unfavorable factors, but also led to China and the global economic slowdown, although the Chinese economy has begun to re-enter the formal, but the epidemic in the world has not been well controlled, the world economic recovery road is bumpy, China's economy will also be affected by the world economy.

As a result, the period of stock index oscillations may be prolonged.

However, the bull market will be late, but not absent. the possibility of stock indexes completing the ramping bottoming phase in 1-2 years is very high, and having gone through 5 years of adjustments, the sound of the bull market is getting closer and closer.

I'll talk about my own views.

First, it's already a bull market.

Only in the primary stage of a bull market, that is, a shock washout of the box, rather than a second stage of a bull market, or even a wave of the main rising wave of the bull market.

So, now it can be defined as a bull market, except that some people will think that the main ascending wave of the bull market is the real bull market, which is a different point of view, are wrong.

As if I think the A-share history of only 4 times a big bull market and 4 times a big bear market, and some people think there are a dozen times. It's a matter of perspective.

Second, I think the end of the washout, into the main rising wave of the bull market time is not too long.

From the historical experience, after the bottom is confirmed, often 2-3 years of time will complete the oscillation bottoming out, into a bull market main ascending wave.

So, we can judge the arrival of the main rising wave of the bull market from the "World Cup Timeline".

As if the 2006 World Cup in Germany was the starting point for the 2007 bull market, and the 2014 World Cup was the starting point for the 2015 bull market.

Then the next bull market should be in 2022.

Finally!

My point is that there is really no point in caring too much about when the main uptrend of the bull market comes. For good investors, they prefer to lay out in the bottom area, and then wait for the inevitability of the bull market will definitely come to appear. And do not go because of the uncertainty of time to speculate.

This is like the crocodile will choose to ambush the animals in the path of the river pond a reason, they will not run after the prey, but wait for the prey will certainly come to drink, and even will certainly cross the river opportunity, so that a move to win!

Investment, too, should be so!

I say a few around the situation, you can also understand the situation in your neighborhood.

1. When I was walking, I heard a couple of older women talking about stocks.

One said what tickets to buy earned how much, and one said she fixed the fund.

2, our neighborhood cleaning aunts, may hear me is a full-time trading, always pulling me to chat, ask what stocks are good, said she did not have much money in the speculation, only a few hundred thousand.

3, the fund company has embraced.

4, a variety of such as investment Queen Catherine's legendary story is endless.

5, Hong Kong stocks and U.S. stocks have appeared to speculate on low-priced shares of the frenzy, a day up 100% is not rare, 50% a day is very normal.

6, the United States appeared zero commission brokerage.

7, the United States appeared the so-called leek harvesting agency story.

8, Bitcoin big ups and downs.

9, no matter which country the real economy is bad, recession became the mainstream phenomenon.

10, the world's boss, the United States, values confusion and serious domestic conflicts, political unrest.

Then say my views on a few things

1, Tesla

I think the electric car will not change the world, at least not as when the car changed the world.

This product is more concept than application. But it is a small episode in the war in the international energy market.

I don't think there's much point in what drive position changes, especially since efficiency doesn't improve.

If you can change the position change from 100 kilometers per hour, to 100 kilometers per second, then this is a decisive change.

2. Artificial Intelligence

I don't think AI can bring happiness to humanity, I think it might be a poison, but sweet. The simple point is that AI brings about the expansion of income distribution in human society and the reduction of labor force. The corresponding judgment is that AI will lead to a serious overpopulation of human society.

Then the probability of attrition through war and radicalization will be much higher.

Six factors support the probability of a major bull market within two years is relatively high.

The basic concept of a bull market does not have a standard definition, and is usually understood to start at a certain time, the next few years, the stock index rose more than 20% or more, and lasted for a certain period of time. U.S. stocks in Obama took office to Trump, more than ten consecutive years of bull market, until this year, 10 days 4 meltdowns, the termination of the bull market. At present, the A-share index is less than 3,000 points, the stock index is in a low position, predicted that the next 2 years, there are six factors, support there will be a wave of the bull market, as follows:

First, the policy support stock market to the probability of good 95%

high-level Si will be the capital market as a national strategy, which is not only the need for the domestic stock market, but also to deal with the need for global challenges. From the policy level analysis, as long as the stock market can support the stable and healthy development of the stock market, will be gradually introduced. The goal of China's stock market policy is to build a global capital market with a stock market capitalization at least equal to GDP, reaching $100 trillion. A prosperous stock market, promote China in the global market competition at an advantage, in favor of China's economic development.

Second, the probability of economic recovery within two years 90%

The global epidemic 6.61 million confirmed cases, deaths of 380,000, is currently in a stable period, predicted that after September, the impact of the epidemic gradually narrowed to the end of the year the impact of a significant reduction. This year's global GDP will be negative growth, after the end of the epidemic, the objective of the economic recovery expectations are higher, governments, businesses are actively promoting economic recovery, China's next year, the year after the economic recovery to the pre-pandemic level or even better, is the probability. China's economy will adjust the structure, adjust the layout, focus on expanding domestic demand to improve people's living standards as the focus. The economic recovery brings the stock market is expected to be good.

Third, the probability of the RMB exchange rate remaining stable within two years 85%

Maintaining the stability of the RMB exchange rate is of great strategic importance. From the international trade dimension, stability and moderate depreciation of China's exports favorable, substantial appreciation, very unfavorable to exports. From the dimension of capital market, stable and moderate appreciation is conducive to attracting foreign capital and stabilizing the capital market, while devaluation is not conducive to attracting foreign capital and stabilizing the capital market. From the dimension of RMB internationalization, stable and moderate appreciation is conducive to RMB internationalization, while depreciation is not conducive to RMB internationalization. From the above three dimensions of analysis, the RMB exchange rate to maintain stability, conducive to China's economic development.

Fourth, within two years, the capital side of the stock market to support the growth of the bull market probability of 95%

Fed unlimited QE, triggered by the world's central banks, the implementation of loose monetary policy. China in the last decade, the path of the path is also loose monetary policy. With the real estate market to make money effect weakened, the central bank to guide interest rates downward, all the stock market funding sources Yang into a favorable. China's capital markets are not short of money, the lack of stock market money-making effect, if you can make money steadily, there will soon be a few trillion, more than a trillion dollars of funds into the stock market. Sources of funds to support the stock market rise, all we need is an east wind.

V, two years of technical support stock market to become a bull market probability of 90%

The stock market for a long time will fall, a long time will rise, the underlying logic behind the law of value is the reaction. China's economic health development for 40 years, the total economy expanded countless times, the total amount to the world's second, less than 3,000 points of the A shares, from the technical side of the upward momentum, only the A shares generally rising mode, converted to structural rise, the new economy rose, science and technology shares on Zhang. With the improvement of the registration system, the junk stock delisting is the inevitable choice.

Six, China's stock market characteristics analysis, the probability of A-share bull market within two years 90%

China's stock market is to feel the stone across the river, and gradually grow. The developed world's stock market, there are a few significant features, we do not have. The first one is that the company's stock market has been in a state of flux, and the second one is that the company's stock market has been in a state of flux. Strict delisting system to optimize the quality of listed companies' operations. Institutions dominate the market. Registration system, focusing on regulation, so that good companies to stay in the stock market. These aspects, the government management is increasing efforts to improve. China's stock market retail power is a double-edged sword, and is the people towards the direction of value investment and healthy development. Stockholders think up, will and policy, capital, economic recovery and other factors, form *** vibration, produce *** vibration effect. According to the characteristics of the Chinese stock market, it is difficult to form a slow bull, fast bull phenomenon will be a scenic line of the Chinese stock market.

2 95%, 3 90%, 1 85%, the mathematical probability of 56%, that is, within two years, China's A-share bull market for the probability of events, up to 3600-4000 points. People think up, the country think up, the stock market is strong is China strong! China's future, need a bull market, gasoline stock market! The stock market is a good place to start! The above views do not constitute investment advice.

The probability of a bull market within two years?

Hello! I'm EYM and I'm happy to answer this question.

According to the observations and summaries in The Cycle, bull and bear markets alternate in cycles, which means that a bull market will come sooner or later. As to whether it will be in two years, or when, and what is the definition of a bull market? It is difficult to give a definitive answer.

What exactly is a bull market?

In an article on April 16, I discussed the technical bull market /i6815845980433285644/

Mentioned that the key indicators from the bottom of the upward breakthrough 20% into the technical bull market. At that time, the U.S. stock market has rallied 24% from the bottom, was argued as a technical bull market. This trend has since continued to rise to more than 30%, and there has been no significant decline so far.

In fact, the US seems to have come out of the doldrums from the stock market. But the economy has failed to keep up, so it is difficult to assess the entry into a policy bull market.

And our current core SSE index is only up less than 10%. It's hard to call it a technical bull market.

The real bull market should be based on the economy, the economy is rising, the stock market is also rising. Or the economy has the possibility of exceeding expectations, the stock market rose first.

This is paired with policy support to form a wave of traditional bull market.

How is the pace of the bull market?

This year, due to the epidemic, coupled with the situation abroad is difficult to control. The economy will certainly be affected, so the path of our bull market, go a little more difficult.

The stock market may be in the national financial funds, as well as all kinds of other funds to support, in the new infrastructure, health care, education, science and technology, and so on, there is a special growth.

And next year is a post epidemic time, is dependent on the construction of this year, as well as the stabilization of the international situation. If there is a rise in economic expectations next year and inflation falls, a bull market is expected.

In addition, for the reform of the registration system, T + 0 way to try, are likely to lead to a slow bull situation, the future may be unlikely to appear before the kind of big ups and downs, but like the United States, continued for decades of slow bulls and short bears situation. It can be said that we are now in the pendulum below, the form of our country from the epidemic can be seen in good expectations. The future gradually build upward trend, the probability of forming a slow bull is greater than the probability of a major bull market.

Our stock market will have a paradigm shift roughly every ten years, perhaps the next ten years, do not bet on whether a big bull to make money. Rather, use the strategy to continue to make money every year, after all, the stock market is a zero-sum game, there must be accompanied by earning, *** win need to change the whole market. Especially the quality of listed companies, which is the cornerstone of the economy, in the big waves under the sand, can the bad companies out, so that good companies up, the formation of benign index composition. Then you can see the bull market every day!

In short, the probability of a bull market in two years is higher, but the probability of a slow bull from now on is even higher, but ultimately it depends on whether the economy moves forward as expected. In fact, take one indicator to measure - are you and the companies you and your friends are in or run good money right now? When everyone is saying it's good money and spending money in a less constrained way, the bull market is really here!

Whitechapel aspires to practice the visible path to financial freedom by publicizing investment strategies with like-minded people,**** together. There may be obstacles, there may be mistakes, but firmly believe that if you go on, you will succeed. Let's *** together for their own to build a money-making machine, the achievement of our free life!

Thanks for reading this article!

Bull market, certainly the policy side, the financial side, the technical side of the three major ****振的. We have to judge when out of the bull market, is it huge, but it is certain that the bull market should not be far away from us.

First of all, we can not predict the policy side of the situation, we can only choose to accept the news, which is expected to be the first difficult bull market.

Secondly, we can't anticipate the capital side of the situation, but we can know that the current national big water release, the market has enough liquidity, so the capital side of the support, the difficulty lies in when the market funds to form a **** knowledge, together with the push, this is the second difficult.

Furthermore, we can only walk out to predict the trend of the technical side, so we can not know the technical side in advance, which is the third difficulty.

Here, many people say that now is the bull market, I don't believe it, now A shares 2900 points, how is the bull market.

But why is the bull market not far from us? Let's look at the A-share history of the bull market

First bull market: January 1991-March 1993

Second bull market: 1996-2001 big bull market

Third bull market: 2005-2007 6124 bull market

Fourth bull market: 2014-2015

The first bull market is the first time in the history of the A-share market. 2015

From time to time, the interval between each round of bull and bear market is about 5-7 years, at present we have also experienced 5 years of bear market, the future is bound to meet the bull market.

I am certainly unswervingly optimistic about the future of the Chinese stock market, the U.S. stock market bull 10 years, the crash, A shares how can not it?

China's current economic competitiveness in the world continues to improve, the emergence of a comprehensive bull market is playing possible, and the current accelerated reform of the domestic capital market, and constantly open to the outside world, which is the bull market of foreign capital funds.

Currently we are in the 3000 point a bit, and the future of the bull market is certainly 5000 points, more likely to be more than 6124 points, we have to stand in a higher and greater perspective.

Now it's already a bull market! The local bull market is already here, 130 stocks have hit record highs!

Localized bull market formation!

The localized structural bull market is occurring against the backdrop of a profound shift in the macroeconomy, resulting from a change in the direction of the broader strategy. The structural transformation of the past Troika investment, consumption and exports, over-reliance on investment and exports to blindly drive the GDP of the era has come to an end, and is now the transformation of old and new kinetic energy and the development stage towards the middle and high end.

So, ultimately, in the excessive period of economic structural transformation, consumption has become the meat and potatoes of investment.

According to statistics, as of now, excluding the listing of new and sub-new stocks within one year, since April A shares have been 130 shares of the stock price hit a new record high, including a lot of companies with a market capitalization of more than 100 billion.

In terms of market capitalization, of the 130 stocks at record highs, 111 have a market capitalization of more than $10 billion, 15 of which have a market capitalization of more than $100 billion, and Guizhou Moutai has more than $1.8 trillion.

The index bull is definitely not coming!

At this stage, the index bull market is more difficult, for the SSE "distortion" problem, in recent years the industry has been discussed. Data show that in 2000, the total market value of the SSE index is about 3 trillion yuan, the end of 2019 has reached 35 trillion yuan; GDP increased from 10 trillion yuan to 99 trillion yuan in the same period, both are about 10 times the growth. But the SSE index is still at 3000 points above and below the "stagnation".

The index distortion has become the market to produce **** Ming, after all, the weight of the broader index of cyclical blue chips basically no liquidity, continue to be in a downtrend, but occupies the weight is much higher than the liquidity of the better science and technology stocks!

Obviously a small horse-drawn cart, how can the index go up? How can there be an index bull market?

A shares are already in a bull market, and 90% of investors are profitable so far this year.

With the acceleration of the internationalization of A shares, the future of overseas investors, institutions will be more and more, which fully explains the value of A is being optimized by global investors.

After being included in the msci index, A50 will also be included in A shares! Internationalization at a time to enhance.

A shares compared to other investment markets, there are many advantages, valuation is low, and is the world's largest financing platform, can invest in the quality of the company's stock is extremely large, the future upside is very large.

At present, the little monk also invested part to A shares, adhere to the value of investment, the pursuit of long-term interests.

Steady, the second half of this year great probability of the bull market came.

In fact, the A-share is now in the bottom stage of the bull market, according to the bull market without two years, two years time, then estimated that the bull market are already near the end.

Since January 4, 2019, the SSE index at 2440 points to stop the beginning of the decline, up to nearly four years of the bear market has been declared over, A shares from the bear market has been transformed into a bull market.

In fact, A shares have ushered in the bull market for more than a year, but the current bull market is only the early stage of the bull market, the real belongs to the bottom of the bull only.

From the current index and individual stocks can fully explain the current is the bottom of the bull market, one of the broader market index has been in an area to maintain shock, there will not be a big ups and downs; secondly, now part of the individual stocks have been very strong, and continue to create a new high in the history of the part of the individual stocks in advance of the bull, appear these two characteristics, only the bull market, the bear market is not likely to this The first thing you need to do is to get a good deal on a new product.

Of course, we don't want to be too happy too early, although the A-share is now at the bottom of the bull market, at the bottom of the bull market improper operation can also be a deep set.

Because the bull market is divided into several stages , the bull market early, bull market, bull market acceleration period, bull market period end and so on , the real money-making effect, the whole population to make money only when the bull market into the mid-period to accelerate the period of time when the retailer is to make money.

The bottom stage of the bull market is the most abrasive, but also the most difficult to operate, mainly due to the hot spot does not last, only localized individual stocks strong, most of the stock is still no money-making effect.

Similar to the current A-share market, hotspot rotation is very fast, up a day down a few days, continuity is very poor. Retailers are simply not allowed to catch, chase into the fall again, very easy to be set, if not into the volume from time to time and pull up a day, which is the characteristics of the bottom stage of the bull market.

In short, the stock market wants to come to the bull market, must have the conditions of the bull market, the most typical is the bottom of the policy, valuation bottom, the bottom of the market, such as the formation of the three bottoms, in order to truly usher in a comprehensive bull market. And the current is waiting for the A-share policy bottom, valuation bottom and the market bottom of the arrival of the gradual approach, now is the eve of a full-scale bull market, can not lie down at this time, adhere to is victory.