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20 19 China photovoltaic industry market analysis: the trend of cheap internet access is more and more obvious, and the new energy consumption situation is still grim. Photovoltaic "New Deal" has entered a new stage of refined development.

The "New Deal" that made the photovoltaic industry anxiously wait in the first quarter finally found the answer in a number of documents released continuously in early April. On April 12, the National Energy Administration issued the Notice on Submitting the List of Wind Power and Photovoltaic Grid Access Projects in 20 19; Two days ago, the "Work Plan (Draft for Comment) on Promoting Free and Affordable Access to the Internet for Wind Power and Photovoltaic Power Generation" was just released-documents on promoting affordable access to the Internet came one after another, indicating the determination of relevant departments to speed up the application and construction process of affordable projects.

Liu Yiyang, deputy secretary general of China Photovoltaic Industry Association, told CBN that under the guidance of macro policies, China's photovoltaic industry will change from extensive development to a new stage of refined development, and from scale, speed and price to quality, technology and efficiency. Under the new situation, China's photovoltaic industry will further strengthen technological innovation, speed up the pace of improving quality, reducing costs and increasing efficiency, and realize comprehensive and affordable Internet access as soon as possible.

The trend of cheap internet access is becoming more and more obvious.

With the progress of photovoltaic power generation technology and the continuous expansion of industrial scale, the cost of photovoltaic construction and power generation has been declining, making it possible to access the Internet at a low price.

In terms of power generation cost, Yi Yuechun, vice president of the Institute of Hydropower Planning and Design, recently said that since the benchmark electricity price was introduced on 20 1 1 and the benchmark electricity price of districts and counties was introduced on 20 13, the average electricity price level has been declining year by year. After the construction of the leading base started in 20 15, the on-grid electricity prices of the second and third batches of photovoltaic leading base projects were 0.2 1 yuan/kwh and 0.24 yuan/kwh lower than the benchmark electricity price at that time, respectively, and the lowest selected electricity price of the Golmud base project in Qinghai in the third batch of bases was 0.3 1 yuan/kwh, which was lower than the local coal-fired benchmark electricity price.

In terms of construction cost, in the fourth quarter of 20 18, the construction cost of new photovoltaic system has been reduced to below 5 yuan/watt.

Yi Yuechun believes that photovoltaic parity internet access has already met the conditions in some parts of China. At present, the places where cheap internet access can be realized in China are mainly concentrated in areas with good resources and construction conditions, good consumption guarantee conditions and relatively high local coal-fired benchmark electricity prices.

Liu Yiyang said that due to the rapid decline in product prices and investment costs, the competitiveness of photovoltaic power generation in China has been further enhanced. After the "5.3 1" New Deal in 20 18, the newly added domestic installed capacity can still maintain a certain scale.

In 20 18, the national energy administration, together with relevant departments, timely optimized and adjusted the development policy of photovoltaic industry, and the installed capacity of photovoltaic power generation in the whole year was 44.26 million kilowatts, the second highest in history after the installed capacity in 20 17. Among them, centralized power stations and distributed photovoltaics added 23.3 million kilowatts and 20.96 million kilowatts respectively, and the development layout was further optimized. By the end of 65438+February, the installed capacity of photovoltaic power generation in China had reached 65438+74 million kilowatts, including centralized power station123.84 million kilowatts and distributed photovoltaic power generation 506 10000 kilowatts.

Li Chuangjun emphasized that in 20 18, the national photovoltaic power generation177.5 billion kWh, up 50% year-on-year. The average utilization hours were 1 1 15 hours, an increase of 37 hours; Among the areas with high average utilization hours of photovoltaic power generation, Meng Xi/KOOC-0/6/KOOC-0/7 hours, Mengdong/KOOC-0/523 hours, Qinghai/KOOC-0/460 hours and Sichuan/KOOC-0/439 hours.

Li Chuangjun pointed out that in 20 18 years, the national abandoned photovoltaic power generation decreased by 1800 million kWh year-on-year, and the rate of abandoned photovoltaic power decreased by 2.8 percentage points year-on-year, realizing the "double decline" of abandoned photovoltaic power and abandonment rate. The light waste is mainly concentrated in Xinjiang and Gansu, in which the light waste in Xinjiang (excluding Corps) is 210.40 billion kWh, and the light waste rate is10.6%, down 6 percentage points year-on-year; The photovoltaic waste power in Gansu was 65.438+003 million kWh, and the light waste rate was 654.38+00%, down 654.38+00 percentage points year-on-year.

The subsidy gap in the photovoltaic industry is more than 60 billion yuan.

Photovoltaic parity online can not only enhance the competitiveness of photovoltaic power generation, but also effectively promote the decline of power subsidies and alleviate the gap between income and expenditure of subsidy funds.

Due to extensive state subsidies, the photovoltaic industry has been accused of being a "giant" and the national financial pressure is enormous. According to the statistics of China Photovoltaic Industry Association, in 20 18 years, China's renewable energy subsidy gap exceeded140 billion yuan, of which the photovoltaic industry gap exceeded 60 billion yuan.

Why is the subsidy gap huge? On the one hand, income is insufficient. As the only source of renewable energy subsidies, the electricity price surcharge for renewable energy has not been adjusted since it was adjusted to 1.9 cents/kwh in 20 16. Some self-owned power plants are in arrears with the electricity surcharge for renewable energy.

On the other hand, expenditure exceeded expectations. In 20 18, the installed capacity of photovoltaic power generation in China will reach 174.5GW, and the bottom line target proposed in the 13th Five-Year Plan for renewable energy will be fulfilled ahead of schedule. Among them, centralized power station 123.84GW and distributed photovoltaic 50.6 1GW. Photovoltaic power generation subsidies are strong, and the demand for subsidies is increasing.

Many industry experts interviewed by China Business News believe that the policies that have been introduced need to be honored and the subsidy funds should be put in place in time. Otherwise, it will shake the determination of green development of the market and trigger a crisis of industry development.

Drawing lessons from countries with better renewable energy development, when renewable energy develops to a certain stage, it is the general trend that subsidies will gradually decline. During the period from 20 10 to 20 12, the installed photovoltaic capacity in Germany increased rapidly. On the one hand, the government has raised the renewable energy surcharge, and power consumers pay the bill; On the other hand, the government reduced subsidies.

The industry believes that renewable energy subsidies will gradually decline, and eventually access the Internet at a low price, which is more in line with the direction of the new round of electricity reform. Through bidding, the advantages of low variable cost of wind power and photovoltaic are highlighted. In windy and sunny areas, wind power and photovoltaic can be quoted at very low prices to obtain power generation rights, which will reduce the rate of abandoning wind and light to a certain extent, and at the same time reduce the transaction price of the overall power market, so that the power system can obtain cheap and clean power. However, the withdrawal of subsidies cannot be "across the board" or "off the cliff". A reasonable exit mechanism should be designed to ensure the sustained and healthy development of power generation enterprises and related equipment manufacturing industries and avoid ups and downs.

On June 20 19, the idea expressed by the Ministry of Finance at the symposium on "Renewable Energy Power Generation Subsidy Policy" was to ensure the annual balance of subsidies before considering how to deal with the accumulated gap.

According to relevant regulations, the electricity price surcharge for renewable energy is collected from power users by power grid enterprises and distributed to relevant renewable energy power generation enterprises.

The relevant person in charge of the Finance Department of State Grid Corporation told the First Financial Reporter that in terms of collection, the electricity price surcharge for renewable energy is charged together with the terminal electricity sales, and the charging standard is 1.9 cents/kWh. Power grid enterprises at all levels affiliated to State Grid Corporation will turn over the renewable energy subsidies collected monthly to the central finance. At present, all users of direct power supply in power grid enterprises have paid the electricity price surcharge of renewable energy on time, but it is not clear whether some self-owned power plants and local power grids are paid by power grid enterprises.

In terms of distribution, power grid enterprises count the amount and amount of subsidies included in the renewable energy subsidy catalogue and apply to the Ministry of Finance for subsidy funds in advance. At the beginning of March this year, they have applied to the Ministry of Finance for annual renewable energy subsidy funds. The subsidy funds of the Ministry of Finance will be directly allocated to provincial power grid enterprises, and the power grid enterprises will allocate subsidies to various projects within the settlement period after receiving the money. This year, the Ministry of Finance is studying the direct allocation of subsidy funds to various renewable energy power generation projects, and power grid enterprises will actively cooperate to do a good job.

New energy consumption "ceiling" still exists

20 18 the utilization rate of renewable energy is obviously improved, and the situation of abandoning water, wind and light is obviously alleviated. In 20 18, the national photovoltaic power generation177.5 billion kwh, up 50% year-on-year. The waste of light and electricity was 5.49 billion kWh, and the national average waste rate was 3%, down 2.8 percentage points year-on-year.

However, it is worth noting that the consumption situation of new energy power generation such as photovoltaic in some areas is still grim. At present, the light waste is mainly concentrated in Xinjiang and Gansu, among which, the light waste in Xinjiang (excluding Corps) is 210.40 billion kWh, and the light waste rate is10.6%, down 6 percentage points year-on-year; The abandoned photovoltaic power in Gansu was 65.438+003 million kWh, and the abandoned photovoltaic power rate was 654.38+00%, down 654.38+00 percentage points year-on-year.

The insiders believe that the consumption of new energy in Xinjiang and Gansu mainly faces the following problems: the local load is lower than the installed capacity of new energy, and the power supply exceeds demand; The flexibility of the system is not enough, and the self-provided power plant is not enough to participate in the peak shaving of the system; The capacity of the output channel is limited. In addition, some areas did not strictly implement the national full guarantee acquisition policy, and set the number of hours of new energy guarantee lower than the national regulations, which affected the profits of enterprises.

Because of the randomness and fluctuation of photovoltaic, the traditional mode is difficult to meet the consumption demand of clean energy after large-scale access. The relevant person in charge of the State Grid National Adjustment Center told CBN that it is necessary to promote the cross-regional consumption of clean energy with the idea of "a national chess game".

Specifically, we should strengthen the scientific planning and research of clean energy development, coordinate the coordinated development of sources, networks and Netherlands, coordinate the development and consumption of large-scale clean energy, promote the unified planning and balance between power supply and power grid, clean energy and other power sources, and promote the healthy and sustainable development of clean energy; Accelerate the construction of UHV projects and ensure the power grid foundation of "a game of chess in the country". Expand the scope of clean energy resource allocation and promote clean energy consumption through UHV cross-regional projects; Build a unified national electricity market and expand the cross-provincial and cross-regional trading scale of clean energy. Expand the consumption space of clean energy through market means

Looking forward to 20 19, Liu Yiyang said that although the new subsidy policy has not yet been introduced, the development idea of "striving for progress in stability" has been determined, and China will still maintain a certain photovoltaic market volume. In the global market, it is expected that photovoltaic installed capacity will continue to maintain a sustained and upward development trend. Demand in major markets such as China, the United States and India remained stable; Old trees and new buds in the European market may increase substantially; With the rapid rise of emerging markets, more and more countries will enter the ranks of GW-level markets.

For more data sources, please refer to the Investment and Financing Prospect and Strategic Analysis Report of China Photovoltaic Industry issued by Forward-looking Industry Research Institute.