Problems and main countermeasures of agricultural production in China

In the past six months, although some livestock products markets fluctuated violently, the prices of bulk agricultural products such as grain stabilized at a high level, and the rising prices of agricultural products enabled farmers to obtain relatively more economic benefits. The favorable economic factors and the policy of benefiting farmers play an important role in the current agricultural production, and the good agricultural situation that has lasted for several years has not changed. At present, it is necessary to deal with the interests of agricultural producers and consumers, protect farmers' enthusiasm for production, restore the production capacity of livestock products with large demand gap as soon as possible, strengthen market monitoring, prevent the chain reaction of rising prices of grain and oil and their meat, poultry and eggs from expanding, and promote the stability of agricultural products market.

First, farmers' enthusiasm for developing grain production is relatively high

At present, agriculture in China is in the critical period of peak season. Although the natural disasters faced by China's agriculture may be biased this year, the uncertainty of agricultural production has increased, the instability of agricultural products market has increased, and the risk of farmers expanding production has increased. But at present, the prices of most agricultural products are running at a high level, and the supply and demand of agricultural means of production are basically balanced. Generally speaking, the factors that help to further mobilize farmers' enthusiasm for developing agricultural production are dominant. This will promote the stability of grain and oil production and accelerate the recovery of the production capacity of meat, poultry and eggs.

Since the second half of last year, the prices of most agricultural products such as grain and oil have risen, which has promoted the improvement of agricultural benefits. In the first quarter of this year, the food consumption price of urban and rural residents rose by 6.2% year-on-year, of which grain rose by 6.7%, the production price of agricultural products rose by 7.3% and grain rose by 8%. The price increase of agricultural products sold by farmers is higher than the food consumption price of residents. In the past six months, the supply and demand of major agricultural means of production have been generally balanced, and the price increase is obviously lower than the production price of agricultural products compared with the same period last year. In the first quarter, the cash income of farmers' family business increased by 75. 1 yuan compared with the same period of last year, while the cash expenditure of family business expenditure only increased by 7.7 yuan, especially the expenditure on agricultural production remained stable at last year's level. All these show that farmers can get more benefits from the rising prices of agricultural products.

In recent years, various grain subsidy policies and price support policies implemented by the state have played an important role in mobilizing farmers' enthusiasm for growing grain. In the first half of the year, various subsidy policies were put in place and the intensity was significantly increased. In the survey, people noticed that the guiding role of food policy in the allocation of agricultural resources is universal.

Under the favorable economic factors and the policy of benefiting farmers, the sown area of grain may increase steadily throughout the year, the grain output will be further expanded, and the grain output may continue to increase. The investigation of crop planting intention shows that farmers have increased the sown area of grain for the fourth consecutive year, and the proportion of high-quality and high-yield grain varieties has further increased. The climatic conditions of summer grain production in China are generally good. Judging from the provinces that basically harvest wheat, the summer grain harvest is better. Considering the sharp rise in corn prices and the relatively high level of rice prices, there are many favorable factors in the autumn grain production situation.

If the proportion of the affected area to the sown area can be controlled within 28% this year, the prices of agricultural means of production can be basically stable, and it is possible to achieve the goal of total grain output exceeding 500 million tons.

Second, farmers' income continued to grow rapidly.

Although the recent sharp fluctuations in agricultural products have increased the economic burden of consumers and even affected the quality of life of low-income groups. However, the obvious increase in the prices of agricultural products is generally helpful to improve the comparative benefits of agriculture and realize the rapid growth of farmers' income. In particular, the price of grain and oil has been running smoothly at a high level, and the price of meat and eggs has continued to rise sharply, which has supported the rapid growth of agriculture and animal husbandry income. There has been a good situation in which farmers' income has increased for many years. In the first quarter, the per capita cash income of farmers was 1260.5 yuan, with an actual increase of 1%, the highest increase since 1997. In the first quarter, the per capita cash income of farmers in agriculture and animal husbandry increased by 57. 1 yuan compared with the same period of the previous year, which contributed 34.3% to the per capita cash income growth of farmers.

Affected by positive factors such as the rapid growth of national economy, relatively more employment opportunities and the improvement of farmers' wage income level, farmers' non-agricultural income continued to grow rapidly. In the first quarter, the per capita wage income of farmers in 520 yuan increased by 16.3% year-on-year. Although the growth rate has decreased compared with the same period of last year, it is still relatively fast.

Considering the recent obvious increase in the prices of edible oil, meat, poultry and eggs, the increase in farmers' sales of agricultural products, and the positive impact of the increase in farmers' employment opportunities and wage rate, farmers' income will continue to grow rapidly in the first half of the year. From the perspective of the whole year, the good trend of increasing farmers' income will continue. It is estimated that the annual per capita net income of farmers will reach about 4,000 yuan.

Judging from the direct factors that affect farmers' income at present, the possibility that farmers' income is higher than last year's nominal growth rate is rising. In this case, whether farmers' income can grow at a high speed depends on whether the overall price level can be controlled, whether the price of feed and livestock products can be prevented from rising due to the increase of grain and oil prices, and then the chain reaction of the price increase of agricultural means of production can be triggered. At the end of 1980s, the prices of grain and oil rose in turn, and the nominal growth rate of farmers' income was very high, but the actual growth was very limited. Only by stabilizing the overall price level and realizing a reasonable price comparison in the fluctuation of agricultural products prices can farmers be guaranteed to get real benefits.

Third, the prices of some agricultural products fluctuate greatly.

Since the second half of last year, the prices of most agricultural products have increased significantly, especially corn and meat and eggs, which are mainly used as feed raw materials. The rise in grain and oil prices and its chain reaction continue. In the first quarter of this year, the production prices of agricultural products increased by corn 15%, pigs 18%, poultry 12.7% and eggs1.8%. In the second quarter, the price of such agricultural products continued to rise, and the price of pork in some markets doubled in May compared with the same period last year.

In the second half of last year, affected by the tightening relationship between grain supply and demand in the international market, domestic imports decreased and food prices rose again. The price of corn has bottomed out. Coupled with the unfavorable climate such as drought, the demand for corn processing fuel ethanol is growing rapidly, and the supply of corn is seriously lagging behind the growth of consumption. The price of corn has risen sharply, increasing the cost of animal husbandry. Due to the low level of industrialization of meat, poultry and eggs in China, the price-benefit response mechanism of all links in the industrial chain has not yet been formed. Last year was the most difficult period for the economic benefits of the production of major livestock products in China. Feeding costs have risen sharply, and the sales price has not responded in time, which has led to a sharp decline in the breeding benefits of farmers, who have withdrawn from the breeding industry and weakened their production capacity. At present, the supply of meat, poultry and eggs is tight and the high price is a typical cyclical high fluctuation.

Considering the periodicity of meat, poultry and eggs production, it will take some time to restore production capacity. At present, the price stability of meat, poultry and eggs mainly depends on government supervision. However, with the arrival of summer, the demand for meat, poultry and eggs is relatively weak, especially because the productivity of poultry and eggs has recovered rapidly, and it is estimated that the stability of the market price of poultry and eggs will gradually emerge. After winter, the market price of live pigs will gradually stabilize.

At present, the biggest problem facing agriculture in China is the uncertainty of agricultural production. The recent sharp fluctuation of agricultural product prices is a manifestation of unstable agricultural production capacity. In the short term, the prices of most agricultural products tend to rise, which is conducive to expanding agricultural production capacity, improving the relationship between supply and demand of agricultural products and promoting the stability of agricultural products market. However, in the long run, the violent fluctuation of agricultural products market not only affects the quality of life of low-and middle-income consumers, but also has a great impact on the small-scale peasant economy.

Main countermeasures and suggestions

At present, some important agricultural products related to the national economy and people's livelihood in China are in a tight balance, and the market prices of these agricultural products are prone to abnormal fluctuations due to changes in external environmental conditions. Therefore, we must balance the interests of producers and consumers, realize the comparative interests of agriculture, steadily increase the supply of agricultural products, allow reasonable fluctuations in the agricultural product market, strengthen market monitoring, and ensure the stability of the agricultural product market.

We should vigorously develop agricultural production. Ensuring a bumper agricultural harvest this year is of decisive significance for realizing the national macro-control objectives and creating a stable environment for major political activities of the party and the state. In view of the unfavorable factors that may lead to agricultural production reduction, the competent agricultural departments should do a good job in prevention and emergency management in advance. The biggest threat to the stable development of grain production is the occurrence of meteorological disasters, pests and diseases, and the fluctuation of agricultural production materials prices.

We should continue to play the guiding and encouraging role of the policy of supporting agriculture and benefiting farmers. Seize the favorable opportunity to promote modern agricultural construction, optimize the structure of supporting agriculture, and strive to improve agricultural facilities. Considering that the grain market price is relatively high and the effect of the minimum purchase price policy is limited, we should try our best to expand the scale of agricultural subsidies, include pig subsidies as soon as possible, and continue to increase agricultural subsidies with relatively high transfer efficiency.

Improve agricultural support and protection policies. For a long time, China's agricultural volatility is obviously lower than that of western developed countries. One of the important reasons is the establishment and consolidation of the family management system. Practice shows that small-scale family management is an important force for agricultural stability and food security. In recent years, the fluctuation of meat and egg market is fierce, which is directly related to the withdrawal of a large number of farmers from the breeding market and the weakening of production capacity. State subsidies to agriculture should not only target at agricultural products with relatively low comparative benefits such as grain and oil, but also pay more attention to the economic interests of small-scale agricultural producers. The national policy of benefiting farmers should not only solve the problem of farmers' living security by implementing the subsistence allowance system, but also protect the production capacity of small-scale farmers.

It is necessary to strengthen the supervision of agricultural products market and rural market. In view of the situation that the market price of agricultural products may fluctuate excessively this year, the relevant state regulatory authorities should monitor it in time. Once the agricultural products, agricultural means of production and rural consumer goods markets show signs of abnormal fluctuations, it is necessary to use economic, administrative and legal means to control the excessive price increase of agricultural products markets and rural markets. At the same time, give full play to the national inventory handling capacity, do a good job in the import and export management of agricultural products, increase corn imports, and control the price increase of corn and other feed. It is necessary to make overall consideration of bioenergy and food security and deepen the strategic adjustment of agricultural structure.