Weilai's market value exceeds that of BMW. Why is the market value of the new car-making forces disproportionate to the output?

The trend of the stock market affects the hearts of every senior stockholder.

The Double Eleven incident is still hot, which has brought a lot of glory to Ma Yun's "retirement trip", but to be honest, it is difficult to hide the embarrassment that the largest IPO in history was stopped.

For boss Xu, 1 1 is not a very auspicious month either, because his efforts to return to A shares in recent years have officially failed. Many people think that since 20 10, no real estate development company has passed the history of examination and approval by the CSRC. If anyone can break this frozen achievement, it is reasonable to say that only Evergrande can do it. But four years later, Mr. Xu's efforts finally went up in smoke.

In order to offset this influence, Evergrande quickly launched the Hengchi logo, giving it the connotation of "guarding the blue sky, winning the Red Sea, being the lion of the East and standing proudly in the world".

Just, where is the car?

The exact news is that Evergrande's new energy vehicles have not yet been developed, and it is not expected to reach mass production in the review stage of the science and technology innovation board. However, the company will continue to invest in new energy vehicles on a large scale, and give a special risk warning to this plan in the prospectus. But for Evergrande, this is nothing. Evergrande's first model should not be able to catch up this year, but there are plans for trial production in the first half of next year and mass production in the second half. In 3-5 years, the car sales will reach 654.38+00,000.

Compared with Evergrande, Weilai and Tucki are obviously more relaxed. Evergrande is still trying to enter science and technology innovation board and make money for Boss Xu's business empire. Weilai and Tucki have entered a real high-speed growth stage.

According to Bloomberg data, the market value of Weilai Automobile soared to 53.4 billion US dollars, while the current market value of General Motors is 51600 million US dollars, which is due to Weilai's key sales milestones, investors' pursuit of the market and good news in the US market.

Who would have thought that two months ago, because the semi-annual report did not reach the recognition of the capital market, Wei Lai encountered the dilemma of large funds piling up and selling? At the end of last year, Weilai's share price even fell to $ 2. 17 per share?

I think, in this Double Eleven, Li Bin can fight for more Maotai 1499 and Lafite' 82 in Pinduoduo without the help of his friends in the cycling circle.

Money makes the waist straighter.

In the past 10 month, Weilai * * * delivered 5,055 vehicles, up by 100. 1% year-on-year, while the data of Changan Automobile was 16 1465 vehicles, which was 3/kloc-of Weilai in the same period. Why is the difference so big?

From a deeper perspective, is Weilai a bubble or does it really have good expectations? This is related to the business model of the enterprise, which determines the valuation model.

Traditional manufacturing industry belongs to asset-oriented enterprises, and its valuation method is mainly based on net asset valuation, supplemented by profit valuation, that is, no matter how many cars you sell, the valuation given by the market still depends on your asset data, and how many production lines, factories and plots you have, which is easier to calculate, just like counting bricks.

Emerging industries and high-tech enterprises take market share as a long-term consideration, focusing on market sales rate, which means I don't care how many assets you have, I only care about your magnitude comparison in this industry. More importantly, the market will compare you with similar enterprises in the market.

To put it simply, Weilai Tucki has a high market value. Why? Because although they are also "workers" who make cars and belong to high-tech enterprises, Changan also makes cars, but in the eyes of capital, it is a traditional manufacturing industry and can only count bricks.

Why don't Weilai, Tucki and Ideal count as traditional manufacturing industries? Because Tesla is not a traditional manufacturing industry. So their valuation is based on high-tech industries.

Why is Tesla not a traditional manufacturing industry, but also a car manufacturer? That's because Tesla's profit depends not only on selling cars, but also on selling software. Judging from the financial data provided by Tesla, selling cars can bring him income, services and other (software services) can also bring profits, and they account for a large proportion of the overall income, and this project is extremely scarce in traditional manufacturing.

What? Software, software service profit? No, this is a proper high-tech industry in the eyes of capital!

"Due to the switching of the valuation system, Tesla's sales rate has risen sharply this year, basically referring to the valuation of technology stocks such as Netflix and Apple." Securities analysts define this.

So how do you value cars like Weilai, Tucki and Ideal? Capital will compare them with the performance of industry leaders in the same period. Who is the industry leader? It's Tesla

After the growth lag of 10 month this year, Tesla, Weilai, Tucki and Ideality have occupied about 30% of the market value of global listed car companies!

Once the runway is switched, it will be different immediately. Why did Ant Financial put on the cloak of "Internet finance" before, but did not admit that its main business was finance? This is also the case. Because of the different valuation systems of Internet companies in the financial industry, the valuation gap between the two parties can reach 100 times under the same business and volume.

However, if we go back to building cars, whether it can last in the end depends on the marketing rate. According to the data recorded by Choice data, the average rolling marketing rate in 2020 is 0.32 for GM, 0.67 for Toyota, and 0.8 1 for China's own brand Changan as mentioned above, which is growing exponentially among the new car-making forces, with the minimum value of 9.8 for Weilai and 50 for Xpeng.

In the eyes of rational people, the gap between market value and sales volume is as big as the bubble of new cars. However, in the eyes of brokers, in their roadshows, they tried to convince investors that the valuation of internet car-making enterprises depends on the future potential, fuel vehicles will be eliminated, and the future belongs to new energy vehicles.

But how do you think that traditional car-making enterprises such as BMW, Changan and BYD also have new energy vehicle business? Securities brokers will put it another way, "because Tesla is an internet company."

So is it a bubble? Or the next market trend? It's hard to say, because the market valuation method determines that even if the giants of traditional car-making enterprises are well-deserved main contributors to the automobile market, the enthusiasm of the capital market for these sales is higher than that of new car-making enterprises called "ants" in traditional manufacturing industries.

Because of the internet!

This article comes from car home, the author of the car manufacturer, and does not represent car home's position.