Will electric vehicles completely replace traditional fuel vehicles in the future?

In the long run, will electric vehicles completely replace fuel vehicles? To talk about this problem, we must first discuss motivation. First of all, the power system can be divided into three categories: internal combustion engine drive, motor drive and motor-internal combustion engine cooperative drive. As far as power system is concerned, I think the trend of electrification is very obvious. As a power output unit, the motor has the following advantages compared with the internal combustion engine: cost advantage: at the same maximum output power level, the cost of the motor itself is very low, which is why Tesla's performance is bursting but its price is lower than that of the performance car.

Therefore, using the motor as the peak power output, the pure electric power system has the advantage of low efficiency: in the process of motor output, the efficiency changes little and is very high (about 90%), which is very suitable for frequent start-stop tasks. Advantages of maintenance and service life: the maintenance interval of high-quality motors is about 30,000 hours, which is several orders of magnitude different from that of internal combustion engines. Let's take a look at the structure and volume advantages of the whole vehicle: under the same output power, the motor is very small, which can realize the layout close to the hub and greatly simplify the whole transmission system. In other words, the quattro four-wheel drive system that Audi has been proud of for decades is a problem that can be solved by program upgrade in electric locomotives. In fact, it can be seen that the platform construction logic of electric system is very different from that of traditional automobile, and the structure of electric system can be relatively simplified, so replacing the motor on the traditional automobile platform will sacrifice some advantages.

Advantages of control and safety: First of all, the response speed of the motor is extremely fast, and the electrical signal can be directly converted into mechanical signal, while the traditional car has a control error loop in each loop during starting, accelerating and stopping, and the response is slow in an emergency. In addition, automatic driving or program-assisted driving is more difficult, and the control and feedback in the motor power system are very sensitive. In order to meet the safety standards and reaction speed, the automatic driving reaction speed of gasoline vehicles will inevitably be dragged down by the mechanical system, and now the automatic driving is basically a tram, so the power system and automatic driving complement each other. Pure battery electric steam blew Tesla for a while, but I think the overall development direction of Tesla should be considered. The advantages of motor power system are obvious, but the market driving force of battery electric vehicle (BEV) is low.

This part, since it is a trend forecast, naturally has various considerations, and individuals are more inclined to analyze this problem from the direction of engineering and market driving force. Motor does have many benefits, but there is a great fate, that is, the energy density of battery energy storage is extremely low, but the decline of battery cost has reached the bottleneck period. Many people wonder why it is not feasible to change the battery mode. The most important reason is that it is expensive. Even the battery manufacturer with the strongest capacity of scale optimization has a battery cost of about $300/kWh, and the capacity expansion of Tesla model 15kwh with the same configuration is the most expensive at the terminal.