Many provinces 2022 GDP growth target below 7 percent

Many provinces target GDP growth rate below 7% in 2022

Many provinces target GDP growth rate below 7% in 2022, statistics found that some provinces are relatively optimistic, putting forward a higher target of 7%-9% for economic growth in 2022. Many provinces' 2022 GDP growth target is below 7 percent.

Multiple provinces 2022 GDP growth target below 7%1

At the beginning of each year, all over the world will usher in the annual provincial local two sessions held, the provincial two sessions are also regarded by the industry as an important window to observe the local economic and social development.

January 3, with the opening of the Tibet Autonomous Region CPPCC 11th five meeting, marking the country officially entered the 2022 local two sessions time. Currently in the middle and late January, it is the intensive period of the local two sessions, as of January 20, the country has 22 provinces, autonomous regions and municipalities to convene the local two sessions.

"China Business News" reporter noted that the 2021 local GDP growth rate has been announced is relatively bright, but most places have slightly reduced the 2022 GDP growth target. According to the statistics of Gujin Securities, in the 22 provinces, autonomous regions and cities that have been announced, 18 provinces, autonomous regions and cities, such as Shanghai, downward adjustment of the GDP growth target, 22 provinces, autonomous regions and cities, the average rate of reduction is 0.7 percentage points.

Interviewed industry experts said that some of the announced local GDP growth rate is bright, and the national GDP growth rate increase in line with the local focus on the development of high-end manufacturing and digital economy. And many places proposed the development of the digital economy in 2022, which is to see the leading role of the digital economy in China's economy, is in line with the development trend of China's decision-making deployment. The digital economy is conducive to the optimization of economic structure, is conducive to promoting the transformation of traditional industries, can achieve high-quality economic development.

2021 local economic report card bright

The reporter noted that 2021 Tibet, Anhui and other local economic report card is relatively bright. For example, on January 4, 2022, the fifth meeting of the eleventh session of the People's Congress of the Tibet Autonomous Region opened in Lhasa. According to the meeting, the GDP of Tibet in 2021 exceeded the 200 billion yuan mark for the first time, with an increase of about 7% over the previous year.

On January 17, 2022, the work report of the Anhui provincial government mentioned that the province's GDP is expected to grow by 8% in 2021, with the total volume exceeding 4 trillion yuan and the per capita GDP exceeding 10,000 yuan, and proposed that the GDP target for 2022 would grow by more than 7%.

Subsequently, on January 20, 2022, the fifth session of the 13th National People's Congress of Jiangsu Province opened. According to the work report of the Jiangsu Provincial Government, in 2021, the province's GDP exceeded 11 trillion yuan, reaching 11.6 trillion yuan, an increase of 8.6%, the total amount of another trillion yuan step.

In this regard, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, Information and Communications Economy Expert Committee member, Executive Director of the Digital Economy Research Institute of the Zhongnan University of Economics and Law, Pan Hailin January 21 interview with the "China Business News" reporter analyzed that: "2021 China's economy benefited from the epidemic in a timely and appropriate handling of the epidemic, the balance of the relationship between the prevention of the epidemic and the development of the epidemic, around the world seized the epidemic to alleviate the window period , grasping production to maintain supply; at the same time, due to China's timely handling of the epidemic, China's industry to support the global supply chain, thus maintaining economic growth."

Pan and Lin also pointed out to reporters, "China's local governments are very focused on the development of high-end manufacturing and digital economy, such as new energy vehicles, biopharmaceuticals, APIs, new energy power and other industries have gained a strong growth momentum, and thus the local economic report card in 2021 is generally bright."

Ying Xiwen, a macro analyst at the China Minsheng Banking Research Institute, also told China Business News on January 21: "In 2021, due to the low-base reason of the previous year's epidemic, the national GDP growth reached 8.1%, a new high in recent years. The bright local GDP growth rate that has been announced so far is also consistent with the national GDP growth rate increase, which is a microcosm of the country. In addition is the price factor, in 2021, China's overall inflation is elevated from previous years, the nominal GDP growth rate reached 12.8%, which is quite a bit faster than the real growth rate of 8.1%, and therefore the total GDP is also another step up to 114 trillion yuan. This is also the reason that the local GDP from the total amount of GDP has also been on the stage, forming a relatively bright results."

Many places slightly downward 2022 GDP growth target

Although the local economic report card in 2021 is bright, but the reporter noted that some places in 2022 slightly downward 2022 economic growth target. For example, Beijing and Guizhou and other places have lowered the GDP growth target by 1 percentage point: Beijing's 2022 economic growth target was lowered from "more than 6%" in 2021 to "more than 5%", and Guizhou's 2022 economic growth target was also lowered from The 2022 economic growth target for Guizhou has also been revised downward from "around 8%" to "around 7%".

Pan and Lin told reporters: "This is mainly because of the global omicron spread led to the delay in global economic recovery, the domestic sporadic regional epidemic, but also delayed the opening of the economy, around out of uncertainty considerations, a more rational choice to reduce the 2022 economic growth target, and pay more attention to the optimization of the economic structure, and no longer blindly pursuing the scale of the enhancement."

Ying Xiwen, on the other hand, believes that "the important factor for localities to lower their growth targets for 2022 is that China's economic growth in the just-past 2021 made a better recovery from the epidemic, thus forming a relatively high year-on-year base. In contrast, 2021's . The higher growth rate is also a result of the relatively low base from the epidemic in 2020. So the lower growth targets across the board in 2022 are in large part due to the technical reason of the elevated base."

Digital economy is in the spotlight

From the published information of the local two sessions that have been held, the digital economy is in the spotlight. For example, the work report of the Jiangsu Provincial Government pointed out that in 2022, Jiangsu will accelerate the development of the digital economy, and constantly improve the level of industrial modernization and the core competitiveness of the manufacturing industry.

The work report of the provincial government of Guizhou also shows that in 2021, Guizhou's digital economy accelerated the breakthrough, the digital economy accounted for 34%. The report also proposed that in 2022, the main goal of Guizhou's high-quality development is: the value added of the manufacturing industry accounted for about 21% of the proportion of regional gross domestic product (GDP); the digital economy, green economy accounted for 36% of the proportion of GDP and 46% or so.

In this regard, Pan Helin told reporters that "the digital economy has become an important driving factor of China's economy, accelerating the development of the digital economy around the world, is to see the dominant role of the digital economy in China's economy, is in line with the development trend of China's decision-making and deployment, the digital economy is conducive to optimizing the structure of the economy, and is conducive to the promotion of the traditional industrial transformation, and is able to achieve economic high-quality development."

The State Council recently issued the "14th Five-Year" Digital Economy Development Plan. In the industry's view, this is China's first national special plan in the field of digital economy, digital economy top-level design continues to improve. The plan also proposes that by 2025, the digital economy is moving towards a comprehensive expansion period, and the added value of the core industries of the digital economy accounted for 10% of GDP.

Ying Xiwen also told reporters: "Around the development of the digital economy, which is in line with the general direction of the progress of the times. Especially in the post-epidemic era, on the one hand, the epidemic prevention and control has given rise to more Internet demand that did not exist in the past, on the other hand, many new concepts and business models have gradually become feasible with technological progress, such as the recent hot meta-universe concept. Therefore, all over the world proposed to speed up the development of the digital economy in order to obtain a first-mover advantage as soon as possible in the new situation and seize a favorable track."

Many provinces are targeting GDP growth rates below 7% in 2022.2

The 2022 local sessions are proceeding intensively.

As of January 21, 28 provinces (autonomous regions and municipalities directly under the central government) have held local sessions and released government work reports or annual economic data. 21st Century Business Herald reporter statistics found that, under the general tone of "stabilization, seeking progress while stabilizing", the majority of provinces have set their GDP growth rate targets below 7%. Under the general tone of "stabilization", most provinces have set their GDP growth targets at less than 7%, and are seeking to promote the stable and healthy development of the economy in 2022 by actively expanding effective investment, moderately ahead of schedule in infrastructure investment, and carrying out diversified activities to promote the recovery of consumption, especially contact-type consumption, and cultivating new consumption growth points.

Meanwhile, some provinces are relatively optimistic, putting forward a higher target of 7-9% for economic growth in 2022. In Anhui, for example, the Anhui Provincial Economic Research Institute of Investment and Finance Institute Director, researcher Xia Xingping pointed out to the 21st Century Business Herald reporter that the 7% GDP growth target set for 2022 not only implements the spirit of the central government, but also in line with the economic operating conditions in Anhui Province, reflecting the word steady, seeking progress while stabilizing. At the same time, considering the efforts to narrow the gap with Shanghai, Suzhou and Zhejiang, Anhui must maintain a higher growth rate in the coming period. From the economic growth support factors, Anhui investment to achieve faster growth has a good foundation; stabilization and expansion of consumer demand is guaranteed; 2022 exports will also remain in the fast lane, "stable growth has a foundation, there is a guarantee".

Growth rate: at least 10 places GDP growth target set at 7% and above

21st Century Business Herald reporter statistics found that as of January 21, the country has at least 10 provinces have been put forward in 2022 GDP growth rate is expected to be at 7% and above. Specifically, the growth rates of Henan, Hubei, Yunnan, Guizhou, and Ningxia Hui Autonomous Region are expected to be around 7%, while the growth rates of Anhui, Jiangxi, Tibet Autonomous Region, Jilin, and Hainan are expected to be above 7%. Most of these provinces have maintained a relatively fast pace of economic development over the past year, and eight of the 10 provinces mentioned above will have a GDP growth rate of no less than 7% in 2021.

How to realize the "steady progress" economic development goals, the 21st Century Business Herald reporter noted that, for the supply side, many proposed to protect the vitality of the market main body, to promote the high-quality development of the industry; for the demand side, many of the landing in the promotion of effective investment, social consumption expansion and upgrading.

The market main body is the power carrier of the economy, but also to consolidate the focus of the foundation of economic development. 21st Century Business Herald reporter noted that in 2022, many places will be through a greater tax cuts and reduction of fees and charges policy, with a view to realizing the market main body of the continued active, to ensure that the supply side of the vibrant. Among them, Henan proposed to deepen the "10,000 people to help 10,000 enterprises", the implementation of new tax cuts and fee reductions, value-added tax credits and tax refunds to help the continued development of market players; Jiangxi proposed to strive to reduce the burden on market players by 200 billion yuan for the whole year, and the net increase in the number of market players exceeded the target of 600,000; Shaanxi proposed to reduce the burden on market players and alleviate their difficulties through new combinations of tax cuts and fee reductions. The Ningxia Hui Autonomous Region will set the goal of cultivating 8 new manufacturing "single champions", 10 "specialized, special and new" small giants, and 100 or so upgraded enterprises, so as to promote the self-motivation and sustainable development of market players. The company's business is not only a business, but also a business that is not a business.

For the demand side, the promotion of sustainable recovery of consumption after the epidemic, and the cultivation of a variety of new types of consumption has become the focus of these provinces that plan to have a higher economic growth rate in 2022.

For example, Henan Province has proposed to stabilize the consumption of automobiles, home appliances, furniture and other commodities, focus on creating new landmarks in the consumer market, and support the construction of Zhengzhou and Luoyang as an international consumer center city, etc.; and Jilin Province has promoted the quality and expansion of its own consumption through the development of new tourism, the cultivation of new e-commerce, and the expansion of new consumption.

Anhui has developed rapidly in recent years, the 21st Century Business Herald reporter noted that in 2022 to promote consumption, stable growth arrangements, Anhui clearly will pay more attention to enhance the city's consumption level, including the promotion of multi-level consumption center construction and Hefei to create an international consumption center, the implementation of the three "forging a long and make up for the short" action plan.

In this regard, Xia Xingping believes that the next step, Anhui should do everything possible to promote the three industrial system of high-quality synergistic development, start the implementation of the three industrial high-quality synergistic development action plan. In addition, Anhui should focus on the first "two strong and one increase", the second "quality and quantity increase efficiency", the third "forging long and short", accelerate the construction of strong agricultural province, manufacturing province, improve the quality of consumption, expand the consumption level. The company's business is also a major player in the market, and the company is also a major player in the market for the first time.

Investment: moderately ahead of infrastructure investment

Currently, China's economic development is faced with demand contraction, supply shocks, and the expectation of a weak triple pressure. 2021 Central Economic Work Conference, 2022, the economic work should be stabilized, and progress in a stable manner, and the various regions and departments should assume the responsibility of stabilizing the macro-economy. Stabilization of the macro-economic responsibility, all parties should actively launch policies conducive to economic stability, the policy force appropriate forward.

As superimposed on the impact of the new crown pneumonia epidemic circulating in many places from the end of last year to the beginning of this year, the stabilization of economic growth in the first quarter of 2022 and throughout the year has attracted much attention. 2021, the national GDP growth rate of 8.1%, although the target of the national GDP growth rate for 2022 has not yet been released, but from the government work report of 2022 in various provinces, most of them will be the GDP growth rate of 2022 is set at 5.5%-6.5%.

How to achieve this year's economic development goals, the 21st Century Business Herald reporter further combed through found that many places are clear that this year will actively seize the country to increase the scale of government investment, moderately ahead of the infrastructure investment "window period", through the grasp of the construction of key projects to expand the effective investment, and then to promote the economy to realize the "steady progress". "Stabilization and progress". Specifically, Guangdong, Jiangsu, Zhejiang, Hubei, Shanghai, Beijing, Anhui, Chongqing and many other places have clearly put forward, 2022 to actively expand effective investment, moderately ahead of the infrastructure investment.

How to understand the importance of moderately ahead of the infrastructure investment? How will each region promote?

"Today's infrastructure investment is the strong support for tomorrow's economic and social development of the city." Wang Huajie, deputy director of the Shanghai Municipal Development and Reform Commission, said at a press conference held on January 18th that moderately ahead of schedule to carry out infrastructure investment is an important element of expanding effective investment, but also to strengthen the established economic advantages, and strengthen the inherent requirements of the future development of kinetic energy.

In Shanghai, for example, Wang Huajie introduced, 2022 Shanghai in expanding effective investment to stabilize the economic development of the main grasp of three points: First, adhere to the planning leadership, play the Shanghai "14th Five-Year Plan" special planning released early, the project reserves enough advantages, and continue to promote the enhancement of transportation, energy, ecological environment, and other traditional infrastructure The first is to adhere to the planning leadership, give full play to the advantages of Shanghai's "14th Five-Year Plan" special plans released early, and continue to promote the upgrading of traditional infrastructure such as transportation, energy, ecological environment, etc., to improve the energy level, digitalization, intelligence, and the level of green and low-carbon, and to accelerate the layout of the new infrastructure to serve the new industry, cultivate new kinetic energy, and support the new race track, Effective" unity, Shanghai will focus on the relationship between the city's economic and social development, sooner or later to do the major projects, after scientific evidence, advance to the "14th Five-Year Plan" pre-implementation.

Not only that, many places in the expansion of investment in the importance of major projects, cutting-edge areas to lead. For example, Beijing proposed to continue to maintain the intensity of 100 billion investment, Anhui to fight the battle of effective investment, Shaanxi said to increase the 5G network, a new generation of Internet, Internet of Things and other key areas of investment.

As China's GDP exceeded 12 trillion yuan of economic provinces, Guangdong Province in 2021, the key projects to complete the investment of more than 1 trillion yuan, the province's fixed asset investment growth of 6.3%, 2022 Guangdong clearly will focus on promoting investment and stable growth, this year, the arrangement of the provincial key projects 1,570, with a total investment of about 7.67 trillion yuan, the annual planned investment of 900 billion yuan, compared with the last year's plan to increase by 12.5%. Among them, the new infrastructure has become the focus, for example, this year, Guangdong will accelerate the construction of Guangdong, Hong Kong and Macao Bay Area international science and technology innovation center and comprehensive national science center, to promote the accelerated construction of the three major science city of Guangming, Songshan Lake, Nansha; optimize and enhance the laboratory system, promote the Pengcheng laboratory, Guangzhou laboratory construction, and strive for a number of emerging fields, cross-disciplinary national key laboratories in Guangdong layout.

Jinan University Investment Consulting (Research) Center Director, Professor Liu Jinshan analysis, Guangdong 2022 key project arrangements reflect several characteristics: First, the volume is large, the volume of 900 billion in the country higher, the pull of the upstream industry chain will be very large; second is the first, not only stable when the year's economic growth, but also for the future development of the economy to provide the first capital; third is the optimization of the allocation of investment with Guangdong The optimization of the current economic structure to match; Fourth, innovation, the allocation of key projects in Guangdong this year can be seen on the scientific and technological innovation of the investment is very large.

Consumption: Recovery and cultivation into two key words

Stable growth is not only to expand investment but also to promote consumption.

Han Wenxiu, deputy director of the Office of the Central Commission of Finance and Economics, said at the previous 2021-2022 China Economic Annual Conference: "The high potential of domestic demand is where our strength lies. We need to implement the strategy of expanding domestic demand, promote the sustained recovery of consumption, actively expand effective investment, and focus on the combination of stabilizing growth, adjusting structure, and benefiting people's livelihood."

Under the influence of the new Crown pneumonia epidemic, promoting consumption recovery has become the top priority of the economic "stabilization" in 2022. From the government work report, many places clearly put forward, 2022 will be through a series of activities to promote consumption, such as creating a consumption cluster, issuing consumption vouchers to further promote the recovery of consumption.

"Since the epidemic, various departments around the world have introduced a series of policies and measures to promote consumption, and the effect continues to show that the consumer market is gradually picking up." On January 18, Jin Xiandong, director of the National Development and Reform Commission's Policy Research Office and spokesman, said at a press conference that in 2021 China's final consumption expenditure contributed 65.4% to economic growth. Next, as the epidemic is effectively controlled, the effects of policies to promote consumption are further realized, and new policies are further introduced, consumption will continue to maintain restorative growth.

January 14, the National Development and Reform Commission also issued a "notice on doing a good job in the near future to promote consumption," requiring accurate and effective prevention and control of the epidemic under the premise of seizing the Spring Festival, Lantern Festival and other traditional festivals of the peak season of consumption opportunity, to adapt to the changes in residents' consumption habits and the need to upgrade the quality of the excavation of hot spots of consumption and growth, and to further release the potential of the residents of the consumption, and to promote the realization of the The first quarter of a smooth start to the economy, and put forward to meet the holiday consumption demand according to local conditions, expanding county rural consumption, expanding ice and snow consumption and other ten initiatives.

From the local point of view, to accelerate the promotion of sustainable recovery of consumption, cultivate new types of consumption has also become the clear task of many places to promote consumption in 2022. 21st Century Business Herald reporter noted that this year, in focusing on the basis of online consumption, further emphasize the need to promote the recovery and development of offline consumption. For example, Sichuan proposes to convene a provincial consumption promotion conference in 2022 to create a number of cultural, sports, tourism and business complexes, characteristic neighborhoods, and nighttime cultural and tourism consumption clusters; Shaanxi proposes to implement a three-year action plan to promote consumption growth in 2022, and carry out diversified consumption promotion activities around bulk commodities such as automobiles, household appliances and homes, as well as key areas such as food and beverage, entertainment, etc., so as to promote consumption, especially contact consumption recovery.

In addition to boosting traditional consumption, many places have also emphasized the need to cultivate new types of consumption, such as lifestyle services, by tapping into regional characteristics and promoting the integration of consumer industries. In Chongqing, for example, 2022 will tap into Chongqing's distinctive culture, distinctive cuisine and distinctive tourism resources, promote the linkage and integration of consumer industries, enhance the development of e-commerce, and promote the integration of online and offline, business, tourism, culture and sports cross-border development.

In 2021, Shanghai, Beijing, Guangzhou, Tianjin, Chongqing and other cities were approved to take the lead in the cultivation and construction of international consumption center cities. Among them, the two sessions have been held in Beijing, Guangdong, Chongqing and other provinces and cities in the government's work report will be the international consumer center city cultivation and construction as this year's top priority to boost consumption. For example, Beijing proposed to actively adapt to the epidemic prevention and control of changes in the consumer industry, in-depth development of international consumption center city special action, encourage green consumption, enrich digital consumption, the development of sports consumption, innovative life, culture and tourism consumption, vigorously incubate new consumer brands, expanding the supply of high-quality consumption; Chongqing mentioned that we should seize the opportunity to cultivate the construction of the international consumption center city, the implementation of the quality of the international consumption carriers and other Chongqing mentioned that we should seize the opportunity to cultivate and build an international consumption center city, implement the international consumption carrier to improve the quality of the "ten major projects", deepen the "Bayu New Consumption" eight actions to consolidate the momentum of consumption; Guangdong Province, to promote the construction of international consumption center city of Guangzhou, Shenzhen, expanding the consumption of automobiles, home appliances, information and so on.

Jin Xiantong also said at the above regular press conference, to combine the expansion of consumption with the improvement of people's quality of life, to promote the creation of a rich content, quality and reasonable structure of high-quality consumer supply system, to guide enterprises to increase the supply of cost-effective commodities and services, to fully meet the residents' personalized, diversified, improved consumer demand. In due course, the formulation and introduction of relevant policies and measures to increase residents' income and reduce burdens and support the continued expansion of consumption with the general growth of urban and rural residents' income.

Many provinces are targeting GDP growth of less than 7% in 2022.3

As of January 23, 2022, 29 provinces across the country have announced their 2022 economic growth targets. What signals have been sent to this year's local sessions?

Nearly 80% of provinces' 2021 GDP growth rate met the target

According to interface data, from the point of view of the completion of 2021 GDP, nearly 80% of the 29 provinces have accomplished the 2021 economic growth target. Hubei exceeded the expected target the most, with its 2021 GDP completion 2.9 percentage points higher than the target. It was followed by Jiangsu and Beijing, 2.6 and 2.5 percentage points higher, respectively. About 20% of provinces failed to meet the target. Tibet's GDP completion in 2021 was the most different from the target value, 2 percentage points lower. It was followed by Yunnan and Henan, 0.7 and 0.5 percentage points lower respectively.

The average value of 29 provinces' 2022 GDP target is 6.4%, and the median is 6.5%

In terms of the distribution of the 2022 GDP growth target value, the average value of 29 provinces' GDP growth target is 6.4%, and the median is 6.5%. Nearly 70% of the provinces have an expected GDP growth target of 6% and above this year.

More than 80% of the provinces downward adjusted the GDP target growth rate

Comparing the GDP growth rate target of 2021 and 2022, more than 80% of the 29 provinces downward adjusted the GDP growth rate target of 2022, with an average decrease of 0.8 percentage points. Hubei has the most downward adjustments, reducing by 3 percentage points. It was followed by Shanxi, which was lowered by 1.5 percentage points. Nearly 20% of the provinces have the same GDP growth target as last year. No province raised its GDP growth target.

Comparing the 2021 GDP completion with the 2022 GDP growth target, more than 80% of the 29 provinces' 2022 GDP growth target is lower than the 2021 completion. The 2022 GDP growth targets of Henan, Ningxia and Tibet are higher than the 2021 completion. Hebei's 2022 GDP growth target is the same as the completion of 2021.

What are the changes in the formulation of the GDP growth target?

According to the interface data, among the 29 provinces, about 30% of the provinces used "more than" in the expression of the GDP growth target in 2022, and more than 50% of the provinces used "around" in the expression. In contrast, in 2021, of the 29 provinces, nearly 60% of the provinces of 2021 GDP growth target expression to "above", nearly 30% of the provinces of the expression to "about".

In the context of the central requirements of the investment moderately ahead of the force, this year, governments at all levels will also be more active, to ensure that the first quarter of the realization of the investment to open the door to the formation of a strong grasp of the project, the effect of stable growth.