Seek the application materials of the 2008 financial crisis

This financial storm is essentially a serious crisis in the governance thought of American model market economy. Professor David of the University of Massachusetts? Coates pointed out that the current financial turmoil in the United States is the product of the special institutional form of capitalism and the result of the neo-liberal form of capitalism. Due to the deregulation of finance, the capitalist financial sector will be inherently unstable without the close supervision of the state.

Financial crisis, neoliberalism, financial globalization, international monetary system

After the Cold War, with the rapid development of economic globalization, neoliberalism is not only the basis of American economic policy, but also a tool for the United States to promote financial liberalization around the world. Although neoliberalism played a certain role in controlling the stagflation of western countries in the 1970s and 1980s, it was not omnipotent.

The so-called neo-liberalism is a set of ideas whose main economic policy goal is to revive traditional liberal ideals and minimize government intervention in the economy and society. Some scholars call it "complete non-interventionism", because it flourished in the Reagan era, so it is also called "Reaganism". Soros, a financial tycoon, called this idea that the market can solve all problems "market fundamentalism". In an interview with Le Monde, Soros said, "(The crisis on Wall Street) is the result of what I call market fundamentalism, which allows the market to adjust itself. The crisis is not caused by some external factors or natural disasters, but by the system itself. It's broken inside. "

The neo-liberal model emphasizes "minimum government intervention, maximum market competition, financial liberalization and trade liberalization". Because of the leading role of the United States in the international financial system, neo-liberalism has also had a great influence on this system. Including the accounting system, market rating system, risk control procedures, and even financial policies, and even the applicable language and pricing currency in the market, all adopt American rules, and the international financial system has actually become an American financial system. Obviously, this does not conform to the international principles of equality, fairness and consultation, and also ignores the differences in development stages, management levels and economic and social systems of various countries. More and more economists have realized that the reform and adjustment of the international financial system in the future will inevitably touch this ideological foundation if it wants to achieve results.

Under the background of the rapid development of economic globalization, the financial storm will inevitably have a stronger impact than before.

First of all, this global influence comes from the international monetary system dominated by the US dollar.

In the 1970s, the Bretton Woods system, an international monetary system centered on the US dollar, disintegrated. However, with its strong economic strength, the US dollar is still the main currency for international reserves and trade settlement. Up to now, the proportion of US dollars in the international settlement and foreign exchange reserves of central banks around the world has remained above 60%. When the "leader" has problems, it will inevitably have a domino effect, which will lead to the global financial market quickly falling into extreme panic.

Second, financial globalization makes the world enjoy the dividends brought by globalization, but it also brings corresponding risks.

Due to the high development of financial liberalization and economic globalization, all parts of the world are in different degrees of financial openness. A large number of "hot money" flows rapidly around the world, and various dazzling financial derivatives intricately link global financial institutions, and developed countries such as the United States occupy the most favorable position. Typically, some financial institutions in the United States package a large number of real estate mortgage bonds and sell them to many countries. Because of this, this financial storm, which originated in the United States, the world's largest economy and the most developed financial system, will have an unprecedented impact.

With the intensification of global financial turmoil, countries all over the world have experienced liquidity shortage, stock market crash, exchange rate shock, export decline and unemployment rate rise to varying degrees, and the global financial market and real economy are facing severe tests.

The financial turmoil first hit the American banking system and shattered the myth of "the most complete system in the world". The market concentration of American commercial banks lags far behind that of European countries. There are a large number of state banks and small and medium-sized banks in the United States. In the past few years, these banks have invested in a large number of subprime mortgage financial products and other securitization products. After the subprime mortgage crisis broke out, they experienced large-scale asset write-downs and losses. The ability of these small and medium-sized banks to resist the crisis is very poor, and it is difficult to get help from the US government, so the probability of bankruptcy in the future is very high.

Worldwide, European banks have suffered the most because they rely too much on the short-term loan market instead of the usual customer savings. It is also difficult for emerging market economies to be immune. After the financial crisis broke out, a large amount of funds were withdrawn from emerging market economies, and some countries with fragile economic structures and high dependence on foreign investment faced severe tests.

The most worrying thing is that the global financial crisis will inevitably spread to the real economy, dragging down or even hindering global economic growth. At present, American real estate investment is decreasing. However, due to the negative wealth effect of the alternating decline in the prices of the real estate market and the stock market, the consumption of American residents is weakening day by day. Due to the decline in their own share prices, American companies' willingness and ability to invest have declined. The amount of bank credit available to American companies has also fallen sharply due to the decline in the value of collateral available. It is almost certain that the American economy will fall into recession in 2009. The growth prospects of developed economies such as euro zone economy and Japanese economy and some emerging market economies in 2009 are also not optimistic.

As the US economy accounts for nearly 30% of the world's total, and its imports account for 15% of global trade, the US economic recession will lead to the decline of global commodity trade, which will further affect the export and economic growth of some developing countries that are highly dependent on foreign trade. The serious impact of the crisis on the real economy is likely to bring about the rise of global trade protectionism and form new obstacles to economic recovery. Large-scale rescue measures will also make the US government, which already has a huge fiscal deficit, worse. Once there is a wanton issuance of bonds and paper money, it will inevitably lead to a decline in US dollar credit and push up the global inflation rate.

This unprecedented financial storm is a test of the economic governance ability of all countries in the world, and it is also a test of the sincerity and determination of all countries in the world to strengthen international cooperation. At present, the international community is paying close attention to the trend of this crisis and the countermeasures and effects of countries around the world.