20 19 events in automobile travel circle: the worry of life and death in the first year of transformation

[? A billion euro guide? ]? 20 19 the automobile industry is carrying a heavy load in the cold winter.

Author Qian Yi

Editor Hao

20 19 is the winter when the sales volume of China automobile market is on the brink, and it is a transitional year after the end of the 28-year incremental era.

New energy ushered in the weaning period, and the electric vehicle track narrowed; Many new forces have delivered mass-produced cars, stepping into the threshold of the next crisis and dawn; "Live" is the 20 19 label of the whole automobile industry, and the tail car enterprises that are difficult to keep high pressure are marginalized and gradually fade out of the broad stage.

Some people are left behind, some are poor and strong, some are unyielding, some are strategizing and winning thousands of miles, some are pinning their hopes on electrification to turn the tide, and some are reducing costs and increasing efficiency to save lives. Difficulties and hardships have yielded fruitful results, and the whole industry is carrying heavy burdens in the cold winter. The exuberant vitality generated in hardship is particularly valuable.

As the saying goes, Yiou Automobile reviews the major events in 20 19 for the reference of the industry.

Event 1: The new energy subsidy retired and started the knockout, with pain and opportunity coexisting.

On March 26th, the Ministry of Finance, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, the Ministry of Science and Technology and the Development and Reform Commission jointly issued the Notice on Further Improving the Financial Subsidy Policy for the Promotion and Application of New Energy Vehicles. On June 26th, 2 1 year, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology announced the abolition of "Specifications and Conditions for Automotive Power Battery Industry", June 26th, 20 19? The subsidy policy for new energy vehicles was formally implemented in. The maximum subsidy gear for pure electric passenger cars after the slope retreat is only 25,000 yuan, which is 50% lower than that in 2065,438+08. Plug-in hybrid vehicles have been reduced from 22,000 yuan in 2065,438+08 to 65,438+00,000 yuan, and some sub-items are subsidized by 60%.

Comments: In the early stage of the development of the new energy automobile industry, the national policy tilt policy was of great help to new energy vehicles with weak industrial chain foundation. Policy subsidies are boosters and umbrellas, whether it is a new force to build cars or a new energy cause of traditional OEMs.

The orderly withdrawal of the state subsidy policy this year will allow enterprises that have grown up for many years under the protection of new energy subsidies to face the market competition, and enterprises in the new energy automobile industry chain will face the competition with pure product strength. The pain of development is inevitable, and the stronger the stronger, the more natural it is.

Event 2: frequent spontaneous combustion of batteries in new energy vehicles.

This year, electric vehicles have frequent fire accidents, including high-end electric brands such as Tesla and Weilai. Since May, there have been 79 safety accidents in new energy vehicles, among which battery problem is still the biggest cause of fire in new energy vehicles. Among the new energy vehicles with fire accidents, 4 1% are in driving state, 40% are in static state, and 19% are in charging state.

(source /Unsplash)

Comments: New car manufacturers with relatively mature technology still have a lot of safety problems after large-scale delivery, and the technical problems of product safety need to be paid attention to and solved urgently. Most of the auto-ignition is caused by the problem of battery thermal management system (BMS), which is not handled properly in R&D and mass production, resulting in local overheating of the battery and a thermal chain reaction, leading to out-of-control accidents. Battery is the core link in the industrial chain of new energy vehicles. The development level of battery chip and module technology determines the development boundary of new energy automobile industry. Whether it can overcome the technical difficulties of batteries and ensure driving safety is a watershed in the future of new cars.

Event 3: Huawei established BU, a smart car solution.

On May 27th, Huawei officially established BU, a smart car solution, after the release of the organizational change document. Huawei's positioning for the Smart Car Solutions Division is to be the main competent department of smart cars in the future, providing ICT components and solutions for smart cars and becoming an incremental ICT (information? Communication? Technology) component suppliers.

Comments: Although Huawei has repeatedly said that it will not build cars, the intelligent entry of Internet giants will further extend the industrial boundaries. From the architecture of BU, Huawei's smart car solution, it shows that Huawei focuses on becoming an incremental component supplier of intelligent networked cars, and occupying the commanding heights of 5G communication technology is the inherent advantage of Huawei's layout of car networking and autonomous driving. Huawei, which does not build cars, is gaining more and more voice in the automotive field. With the gradual improvement of the industry development, the construction of the car networking system will help Huawei break through the intelligence of the world automobile industry.

Event 4: Three ministries and commissions issued a "Prohibition Order" to guide the upgrading of automobile consumption.

On June 6th, the National Development and Reform Commission, the Ministry of Ecology and Environment and the Ministry of Commerce issued "Promoting the upgrading of key consumer goods? The implementation plan of unblocked resource recycling (20 19-2020) focuses on the supply-side structural reform and focuses on "consolidation, enhancement, promotion and smoothness" to promote the upgrading of automobiles and other products. On the one hand, all localities are not allowed to restrict or purchase new energy vehicles; On the other hand, it is strictly forbidden to introduce new car purchase restrictions in various places. Local governments that have implemented automobile purchase restrictions should accelerate the transformation from purchase restrictions to guided use according to the effects of urban traffic congestion, pollution control and traffic demand control.

Comments: The significance of automobile consumption in stimulating the overall domestic consumer market is extraordinary. The release of the "Implementation Plan" is intended to guide the upgrading of automobile consumption and encourage automobile consumption, especially to release the consumption potential of new energy vehicles. Promoting industrial upgrading and consumption upgrading, guiding the innovation of automobile financial products, and sinking automobile consumption channels have objectively promoted the development of the automobile industry, boosted the steady growth of the total retail sales of social consumer goods, and thus played a pulling role in China's overall economic development. The introduction of the "prohibition of alcohol" meets the needs of consumers and the market, which is conducive to coordinating long-term and short-term development and promoting consumption upgrading.

Event 5: National VI emission standard will be implemented on July 20 19 1 day.

On July 1 day, the national six emission standards were officially implemented. According to the announcement of the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, the implementation of the National Sixth Standard is divided into two stages: the first stage, from July 2020, the models sold at the national registration level must meet the National Sixth A standard; The time node of the second stage is July, 2023, and the national standard B will be implemented nationwide. After the transition period, the comprehensive national six emission standards will come.

Comments: Two years after the promulgation of the National Five Standards, the state once again introduced new emission regulations. The national sixth emission standard is called the most stringent emission standard in history, which is mainly reflected in the fact that the emission limit of nitrogen oxides in tail gas is 3-5 times stricter than that in the national fifth. The improvement of standards is undoubtedly positive for the technical drive of the automobile industry, and enterprises with insufficient technical reserves will face crisis or even be eliminated. With the gradual implementation of the national six standards in various places, in order to speed up destocking, channel parties have reduced prices to sell the national five cars. Vehicles from National 1 to National 3 will face restrictions and compulsory elimination, while the use of National 4 and National 5 will not be subject to too many restrictions.

Event 6: Weilai Automobile has been listed for one year, and its market value has shrunk by nearly 90% and then bottomed out.

Weilai has been listed for one year. 20 18, 12 On September 2nd, Weilai was listed on the NYSE with the amount of 1002 million (about RMB 6.7 billion), and its market value once exceeded1300 million, but in 20 19, it was declining. In terms of sales volume, the delivery volume of Weilai Automobile has continued to grow since August this year, but there is still a big gap with the annual sales target. In June, the total sales volume of Weilai Automobile was1-1,achieving the annual sales target of 43.5%. In addition, in order to reduce costs, Weilai made three rounds of layoffs for North American employees in May, September and 65438+February respectively, and the total number of layoffs was nearly 50%. 19 On February 30th, Weilai released a bright financial report for the third quarter of fiscal year 20 19, and its share price rebounded rapidly.

Comments: sales losses increased, executives changed, and front-line employees were laid off. In the difficult transition, 20 19 is not a good time for Wei, who keeps getting negative news. Li Bin was even rated as "the worst person in 20 19". Li Bin once said that it was nothing. "We were almost beaten to the ground with a punch from the left, and immediately got up, and we were beaten and got up again." Weilai Automobile, which once fell below 90% of the market value, posted its third quarterly report on February 30, 65438, and its share price soared by 53.72%, hitting a new high in the second half of the year, bringing a little surprise and warmth to the cold winter.

Externally, Tesla and traditional OEMs are surrounded and shrinking, internally, subsidies are retreating, and new forces are fighting. Facing the complicated competitive market, the survival status of the new car-making forces represented by Weilai is not satisfactory, but in the long run, the social benefits brought to China are far greater than the economic benefits, and the performance of a single stage is not enough to prove the problem.

This is not just the cold winter of new cars, but the freezing period of the global automobile industry. New energy automobile manufacturing is a grand proposition of the times, and it is also the only opportunity for China automobile industry to overtake in corners. The growth of independent brands is hindered and long, and it is difficult to talk about success or failure within ten years.

Event 7: Tesla China Factory was put into production in June, 5438+00.

Tesla announced the third super factory giga factory 2065 438+08? 3 will land in Shanghai Lingang, and in June of this year, 5438+ 10, Tesla China factory started construction. 10 year1October 24th, the factory entered the trial production stage. 165438+1October 7th, the first domestic Tesla model? 3 officially unveiled, only 6 days later, Tesla was awarded the automobile production qualification by the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology. From the start of the factory to the appearance of the products, Tesla showed the world the speed of China. According to Tesla's plan, the annual production capacity of the first phase of the Shanghai plant will reach 250,000 vehicles, and the annual production capacity will reach 500,000 vehicles after completion.

(source /Unsplash)

Comments: The mass production of Gigafactory3 of Tesla China Super Factory will help Tesla to continuously reduce costs and increase efficiency, and create conditions for integrating the whole industrial chain. The arrival of the factory in China means that Tesla began to focus on the localization of China and the integration of local resources, releasing its huge potential in the China market. For independent brands, the market space will be further compressed. However, the catfish effect caused by the entry of super giants forced the electric vehicle industry chain in China to develop rapidly. Therefore, the commissioning of Tesla Factory may have a synergistic effect, which will play a positive role in cultivating China's electric vehicle industry and promote the overall situation of mutual benefit and win-win cooperation between China and the United States.

Event 8: Countdown to the knockout stage, marginalized car companies are retired by the market.

165438+1On October 29th, Changan Automobile and Peugeot Citroen Automobile, the joint ventures of Changan Peugeot Citroen Automobile Co., Ltd., both transferred 50% of their shares, and the DS brand sold by the joint venture company in China is facing delisting. 12 18, Fiat Chrysler and Peugeot Citroen confirmed the merger. Dongfeng, another joint venture of Peugeot Citroen in China, plans to sell some PSA shares to promote the merger of the latter and FCA, and the joint venture brand Shenlong Automobile may disintegrate.

Lifan, Zotye, Huatai and Cheetah, as independent brands, are all in a crisis of survival because of poor management. Among them, Lifan, as the first private car company listed on A-share in China, will run out of energy after four years of sustained losses. In the first half of 20 19, the operating income of Lifan was 565,438+78 million yuan, down13.4% year-on-year; The net profit attributable to shareholders of listed companies was 950 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 859.98%. Edge car companies have entered the stage of life and death elimination.

Comments: It is inevitable that a brand that lacks product strength will be defeated in the cold winter. Due to the strategic mistakes in product, marketing and positioning, many foreign joint venture brands and independent brands have begun to fight for life and death. The stronger the strong, the weaker the weak. The survival of the fittest must be a good thing for the big market environment and the long history of the development of the automobile industry. Eliminate backward production capacity, release limited market space and resources to the upstream echelon, integrate superior resources for industrial transformation, and continuously promote reform efficiency. In the end, the head advantage will become more and more obvious, and the team of the golden mean will also face the crisis of hanging the sword of Damocles. Players who are difficult to change their brand-new correct posture to adapt to the market will be eliminated one after another. It's only a matter of time.

Event 9: Geely and Daimler set up a joint venture company, and then BAIC controlled Daimler.

On February 3, 65438, the high-end travel project "Yaodong Travel" jointly built by Geely and Daimler was officially launched, which became an intention signal for the two sides to continuously deepen friendly cooperation. On March 28th this year, Daimler and Geely Holding Group announced that they would set up a joint venture company in China to jointly operate and promote the transformation of Smart brand on a global scale, and strive to build Smart into a leading high-end electric smart car brand in the world. The headquarters of the new smart joint venture company will be located in China, with each party holding 50% of the shares, with a registered capital of RMB 654.38+700 million. Previously, Geely had acquired 9.69% of Daimler's shares and became Daimler's largest shareholder. On July 23rd, BAIC announced that it would spend 2.8 billion euros (about 265.438+600 million yuan) to acquire a 5% stake in Daimler.

(source /Unsplash)

Comments: It is no longer uncommon for independent brands to join hands with foreign high-end brands. Everyone needs what he wants, and the essence of openness and win-win is the booster of cooperation. "Yao Chuxing" is the first landing project after Geely and Daimler established a joint venture company in March. Obviously, this is another win-win move of brand strategy, which is not only a new example of Daimler's layout of travel ecology in China, but also a strong impetus to the transformation of Geely Holding Group into a mobile travel service provider, adding chips for Geely's high-end enjoyment strategy. High-end brands have always been the direction that independent brands attach importance to development. As leaders of independent brands, it is wise for BAIC and Geely to use foreign luxury brands to increase their brand value, but it is not enough to just tie them together. Internalizing and integrating the core of high-end brands is the beginning of truly high-end domestic brands. For foreign car companies, trading their shares for the largest market in the world and relying on China to keep warm and drive out the cold will provide a broader development space for the future.

Event 10: SAIC and GAC reached a strategic cooperation.

On February 23rd, 65438, SAIC and Guangzhou Automobile Group held the signing ceremony of strategic cooperation framework agreement in Shanghai, and announced the signing of strategic cooperation framework agreement with Guangzhou Automobile Group. According to the agreement, the two sides will seize the strategic opportunity of automobile industry transformation and actively explore cooperation in technology research and development, resource coordination, investment layout, market expansion, international operation and other related fields. The two parties to the agreement will explore joint investment in developing strategic core technologies and platforms in the fields of new energy, intelligence, networking and lightweight.

Comments: In the face of the painful period of automobile industry chain transformation, ensuring "survival" is the top priority of all traditional car-making forces and new cars. Working together and holding a group to keep warm is an effective way for enterprises to share the cost and risk of R&D and achieve the goal of reducing costs. Mutual benefit and mutual support will help them survive in the difficult "different dimensional era". Electrification is the general trend of the automobile industry in the future, and the high R&D cost in the fields of electrification, intelligence, networking and even autonomous driving is unbearable for a single enterprise in the cold winter, so it is more and more difficult to be independent, and enjoying technology is undoubtedly a big plus for all enterprises.

Editor: Hao

This article comes from car home, the author of the car manufacturer, and does not represent car home's position.