How big is the economic impact of the novel coronavirus epidemic?

2020 is an unusual year. Before the Spring Festival, there was an outbreak of pneumonia caused by novel coronavirus. With the outbreak of the epidemic, infected people appeared all over the country. Wuhan is closed and residents stay indoors. In many fields, it's like pressing the pause button. So, what impact does this coronavirus pneumonia epidemic have on the economy?

How big is the economic impact of the novel coronavirus epidemic?

Considering all kinds of factors comprehensively and comparing the social and economic impact of SARS on China in 2003, it can be preliminarily judged that the epidemic had obvious impact on China's economy in the first quarter, especially on traditional service industries such as transportation, tourism, shopping, catering, accommodation and sports. If the epidemic can be completely controlled in the first quarter, the economy is likely to rebound in the second quarter. The epidemic occurred in Hubei, and the economic fluctuation in Hubei has limited impact on the national economy. Generally speaking, the epidemic has little impact on China's economy in 2020, and its impact on the global economy is extremely limited.

The outbreak season in novel coronavirus is very similar to that of SARS in 2003. The first batch of cases all appeared at the end of the previous year and began to spread in June+10, 5438. Because of the experience in 2003, the response time of governments at all levels is short, the diagnostic ability is improved quickly, the mortality rate is low, and the duration may be greatly shortened, which is expected to be effectively controlled in the first quarter, and the impact on China's economy is concentrated in the first quarter. At present, the long-term positive fundamentals of China's economy have not changed. Quarterly and even annual economic fluctuation is an economic law. A little higher and a little lower is not terrible. The terrible thing is to lose strategic strength.

That's all. I hope it helps you.