Population to go negative? What new programs are proposed by experts after the failure to promote birth?

"Having more children is good for the family" and "raising children for old age" are traditional concepts for many elderly people in the last century. Many families believed that having one more child would make the family rich, so families in the 1960s, 1970s and 1980s had a number of siblings. However, with the increase in the number of children, the financial burden borne by the family has become heavier and heavier, and most of the children are unable to receive a good education, thus "the more children they have, the poorer they become". But who could have predicted that our planet, which was once worried about population growth, would now be faced with a declining population? According to the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS), China's birth rate will be only 7.52 percentage points in 2021, while the net increase in population will be only 780,000, the lowest level in 43 years.

Why negative population growth after fruitless efforts to boost births?

Local figures were also released along with the National Statistics Office's population figures for 2021. The First Financial reported that until April 3 of this year, twenty-three provinces released the 2021 fertility data, of which four provinces added more than 500,000 people last year; in terms of birth rate, only two provinces in the country more than 1%,9 provinces have a natural decrease in population, such as Hebei, Jiangsu, Hunan, Hubei, Shanxi, Chongqing, Inner Mongolia, Shanghai, Heilongjiang, Jiangsu, Hubei, Hunan, Inner Mongolia and Shanxi.

In fact, since the introduction of the two-child policy on Jan. 1, 2016, the rate of net population growth has been declining in recent years, from 9 million to 480,000 in 2021, with some cities even experiencing negative growth. There are some of the next three reasons for these declines.

Reason 1: The weight of high housing prices

For urban youth, housing is important; it is a symbol of family, and is related to their marriages, their children's education, and the well-being of the city. And now the price of housing is still very high, a set of houses are priced at more than ten thousand dollars, which means that young people nowadays need at least one million dollars to buy a house. Many young people do not have the money to buy a house, they do not find a suitable partner, and when they have the money, they are forced to "late marriage and late childbearing".

Reason 2: Decrease in the proportion of women of childbearing age

The optimal age for women of childbearing age is generally between 20-34 years old, and the number of women of childbearing age will decrease by 15.17 million in 2020 compared to 2010, with women of childbearing age numbering fewer than 146 million, and there are more men than women, and the divorce rate is increasing, which, among other factors, has led to more resistance to childbearing. The surplus of men over women and the increase in the divorce rate, among other factors, have led women to be more resistant to giving birth to children. Moreover, young people nowadays are under great pressure in the city, and most of them have jobs. But most of the jobs are so harsh on women that they have to choose between childbearing and work.

Reason 3: More pressure to raise children in the city

Nowadays, the cost of children's education is very high, and with the development of the times, our country's industry is becoming more and more developed, and more and more in need of talents. As a result, many parents pay a huge price for their children's education, and they have to attend all kinds of training courses from elementary school onwards, which are very expensive; there are also many parents, who spend a lot of money to buy expensive school district houses. As a result, even rich families don't want too many children.

Experts propose solution, parents agree

In a paper, "Solution to Low Fertility Found -- China's Fertility Report," economist Ren Zeping proposes a five-point approach to solving the low fertility problem. Ren Zeping said that fertility is an obstacle that is difficult to raise, and the key is insufficient policy support, high childcare costs, poor childcare environment, high birth costs, and now that three children are fully liberalized, these five measures are likely to play a decisive role, while the experience of foreign countries in encouraging fertility is mainly from the protection of holidays, economic subsidies, childcare services, and women's employment at each of the four levels. Ren Zeping's proposal, which is also supported by many parents because it means that the pressure on families with children will be reduced, has seen 13 provinces across the country successively optimize their fertility policies from June until early July.

Faced with the current serious population problem, experts and scholars across the country have given their views, which are shared by parents: Liang, for example, offers a 70 percent discount on houses for two children and 50 percent for three. Ma Guangyuan, an independent economist, believes in incorporating pre-school education into the compulsory education system, which would reduce the cost of enrolling children in school and implementing all medical insurance within hospitals; economist Ren Zeping also suggests that policies such as taxes and subsidies for home purchases should be implemented for families with multiple children, as well as reducing the burden on parents to raise their children by increasing the number of nurseries and kindergartens, and at the same time, reducing healthcare, education and other expenditures to solve the fertility problem.

The current policy of promoting childbirth may not have much effect in the short term, but in the long term, it is the best incentive, because the problem can only be solved if it is tackled at its root.