Hong Kong is not the same as it used to be.

Economic structure is a very broad concept. On the one hand, it reflects the ways in which various economic components and elements are interrelated and interact with each other, and the laws of their movement and change. On the other hand, it is also a direct manifestation of various economic actors' activities in different economic fields in a certain way, building economic aspects with different efficiency, and then intervening in economic life. The economic structure of any society is the result of many factors. As far as the composition of economic structure is concerned, it will involve industrial structure, distribution structure, employment structure, supply structure, demand structure and so on.

No matter how developed the social productive forces are and under what system the society exists, as long as it is a socio-economic behavior, it will inevitably be active in a certain economic structure and form an interactive relationship with the economic structure. The process of economic development or growth is actually a process in which the economic structure is constantly evolving and the content of economic activities is constantly increasing.

Economic structure and economic growth are two different aspects of social and economic activities, which have strong correlation. If economic growth is regarded as the process of economic aggregate expansion, and the economic aggregate in a certain period is actually equal to the sum of all structures, then economic growth is equal to the growth of the total structure. From a dynamic point of view, the analysis of economic growth can never be separated from the premise of economic structure. Any growth is growth under certain economic structure conditions, and economic structure will have an impact on economic growth in many ways. For example, the formation of a social and economic structure that meets market requirements will have an impact on the speed of economic growth. The state of economic structure depends on the gathering direction and degree of various elements in various economic fields. The growth in the sense of modern economics should refer to the quantitative growth of the total social products, including goods and services, which can meet social needs and successfully realize their own values. Therefore, if the gathering of various factors in different economic spaces conforms to the social and economic development direction and external demand, then this economic structure will have a favorable impact on economic growth, and the economic growth rate will naturally be faster. On the contrary, economic structure will hinder economic growth, and economic growth will slow down or stop, eventually leading to the loss and waste of social resources.

In addition, the economic structure will affect the mode of economic growth. The mode of economic growth refers to the combined use of production factors, which determines the overall efficiency and development of the productivity system. Under different economic structures, the requirements for factor possession are different, the level of substitution among various factors is also different, and the composition of economic growth sources is bound to be different. American scholar Peter divides economic growth into factor-driven growth, investment-driven growth, innovation-driven growth and wealth-driven growth. It goes without saying that these four different growth forms will only appear under certain economic structure conditions. For example, when the economic structure is in the primary form, social and economic growth can only rely mainly on a large number of initial resources such as labor and land, and the requirements for aggregation between economic components are weak, and social productivity is at a low level. When economic growth enters the "innovation stage", the technological component of innovation will dominate the economic structure, the traditional elements will be replaced by technological innovation to a great extent, and innovation will become the leading sector of growth.

In addition, the change of economic structure will affect the quality of economic growth. The quality of economic growth is also the efficiency of economic growth, that is, efficiency is related to various microeconomic variables of input and output. To put it more directly, it is the conversion rate of input and output. Input and output are not only related to the demand structure in the economic structure, but also related to the supply structure in the economic structure. For example, input will affect the level of demand, output will affect the level of supply, and demand and supply are closely related to the income level and distribution structure of society. Therefore, if all the components in the economic structure can coordinate with each other and the energy of each factor can be fully released, then the "cost of economic growth" will be relatively reduced and the improvement of the quality of economic growth will become a natural thing.

In addition, changes in the economic structure will affect the economic growth cycle. The fluctuation of economic cycle permeates all sectors of the economy, such as manufacturing, trade and finance. Therefore, the economic structure will affect the economic growth cycle because the change of economic structure is always conditional on the increase or decrease of capital investment, technological innovation and other factors, and the composition of social industrial productivity (including the input structure of intermediate factors, industrial fixed assets structure and technological structure) will certainly have an impact on the economic growth cycle. From the perspective of capital investment, whether enterprises increase investment in deposits and loans, machinery and equipment, or housing construction, or even large-scale infrastructure investment, such as roads, docks, tunnels and so on. , will inevitably lead to changes in total demand, leading to an increase in production and employment, adding new upward momentum to economic growth, changing the curve of economic growth, or extending the rising time of growth. However, major technological innovations often occur in the long-wave recession stage of the economy, which can create fast-growing new industries for the society, thus overcoming the low-speed growth of the downward belt and making the social economy enter another period of high growth rate.

Finally, the economic structure will affect the stability of economic growth. Influenced by global economic integration, the economic structure of modern society is showing more and more worldwide characteristics, and there are more and more connections and interdependence among various social and economic systems. Under such conditions, the openness of a social and economic structure, the position of the society in the world industrial division of labor, the degree of economic specialization and the flexibility of industrial transformation will all have an impact on the stability of economic growth. If a society's export commodities have high income elasticity in demand, after a period of time, its export growth will be faster than the growth of national income; If a society's economic growth depends on industries that are easily affected by external prosperity, its economic growth stability will be weak.

Second, generally analyze the impact of economic structural changes on Hong Kong's economic growth.

Just like other economic systems, Hong Kong's post-war economic growth has always been closely related to the changes in Hong Kong's economic structure. Therefore, the post-war economic growth of Hong Kong can be described as "an upward structure, a downward structure, an upward structure and a downward structure". The influence of Hong Kong's economic structure and its change rate on Hong Kong's economic growth is reflected in many aspects.

First of all, the lack of economic structure determines the centralization of the distribution of economic growth points in Hong Kong. Affected by natural resources and geographical location, Hong Kong's economic structure is characterized by a lack of projects, or it has always been an "underdeveloped" economic structure. There is no heavy industry that produces capital goods, nor agriculture and animal husbandry. At first, the tiny mining industry was in a negligible position in the economic structure, and later it became a dying industry due to the exhaustion of resources. Therefore, it will never be possible for Hong Kong to establish an economic system with a complete range of industries, and the pillars of social and economic growth will never be distributed in a comprehensive and balanced way like the economies of some countries. Although the economic structure of Hong Kong changed from time to time after the war, it was basically reflected in the structural increase or decrease of a few leading industries. Foreign trade and other related industries rooted in the economic soil of the harbour have always occupied an important position in economic growth. Hong Kong has long promoted its own economic development by playing the role of "trade center" in global economic activities. If we can look down at the image of Hong Kong's economic growth in the past 50 years after the war, it is easy to see that its growth points are not distributed in many directions. On the contrary, it is highly concentrated, that is, the economic growth point is concentrated. In the final analysis, this is determined by the lack of economic structure.

Secondly, the rapid transformation of economic structure has affected the sustainability of economic growth. A famous Japanese development economist, Lifu Watanabe, put forward the chain theory of structural transformation when he analyzed the phenomenon that East Asian economy remained vigorous all the time during the downturn of the world economy. He believed that the key to the long-term development of East Asian economy lies in its high "transformation ability", that is, East Asian countries and regions "showed more advanced strength than other regions" in self-adjustment and adaptation to higher industrial structure according to changes in conditions; Moreover, in this region, because all countries have a high ability of structural transformation, the structural adjustment and transformation of one country will immediately induce the structural transformation of other countries, thus producing a chain effect of structural transformation and keeping the whole regional economy in an endless development vitality. As an important economic member in the region, Hong Kong has also shown strong structural transformation ability in the development of more than 50 years after the war, which has also promoted its long-term rapid economic growth. Looking back on the economic restructuring of Hong Kong in the past 50 years after the war, we can find some characteristics: First, the speed of structural restructuring is determined. For example, judging from the stage of economic growth, Hong Kong has achieved several economic restructuring in the past 50 years, which is rare in other economic systems; Second, it can quickly promote the emergence and rise of an industry. For example, modern manufacturing industry can develop rapidly in Hong Kong, so that Hong Kong can realize social industrialization quickly. Third, adjust completely according to the change of conditions. For example, Hong Kong's industry could rise suddenly in the 1950s because of trade obstruction, and it could also move out in the 1980s because of changes in internal and external conditions. Fourth, the pillar industries have been upgraded rapidly. For example, the tertiary industry in Hong Kong has developed from traditional industries such as wholesale and retail, export trade, restaurants and hotels to emerging industries such as finance, insurance, real estate, business services and so on, and it only took twenty or thirty years. Such a structural conversion rate, manifested in many aspects, will undoubtedly resolve or weaken all kinds of growth resistance brought about by changes in conditions, thus enabling the social economy to gain long-term growth momentum.

Third, the stage of economic structure evolution also determines the stage of economic growth. The upgrading and change of economic structure is a gradual process, which is always influenced by the development level of social productive forces and the stage of material and technical conditions, and finally makes economic growth show the characteristics of staged growth. For example, in the early post-war period, Hong Kong's own production capacity was low and weak, and social and economic activities were mainly carried out around entrepot trade, and economic growth showed a staged feature of relying on trade development to drive growth. Since the 1950s, the inflow of foreign capital in Hong Kong has increased rapidly, the export of technical components in social and economic activities has increased, Hong Kong's economic structure has been upgraded to another level, and Hong Kong's economic growth has also entered a stage driven by foreign trade and manufacturing. When the social income level is further improved and the social wealth reaches a higher level, Hong Kong's economic structure presents the stage characteristics of the rapid growth of the tertiary industry, and therefore Hong Kong's economic growth is mainly driven by the development of the tertiary industry.

Fourth, the openness of economic structure will affect the variability of economic growth. For a society's economic structure, we can judge its openness according to its close ties with foreign economies. Obviously, an economic structure with a high degree of contact with foreign economies should be an economic structure with a high degree of openness, and vice versa. The economic relations between different economic systems are generally linked through factor exchange, which is mainly reflected in the inflow or outflow of capital and commodities. Therefore, for an economic structure, if foreign trade and international capital exchange activities account for a large proportion, this structure should be highly open, and vice versa. The openness of economic structure essentially reflects the external dependence of an economic system, so how the openness of economic structure will inevitably have an impact on the extent of economic growth: the openness of economic structure is large, and its external dependence is also large, and the economic growth under this structure is also greatly affected by changes in external conditions; On the contrary, the economic structure is less open and less dependent on the outside world, so the economic growth under this structure is less affected by external changes. Hong Kong is undoubtedly a society with a relatively open economic structure. Whether it is measured by people's usual dependence on foreign trade or judged by dependence on foreign capital (see table 1 and 2), this can be proved. It is not difficult to find the answer to the fluctuation of Hong Kong's economic growth.

Fifth, the preference of economic structure for absorbing resources also determines the orientation of economic growth. Because of the different forms of economic structure, the composition of resources it absorbs is not the same, for example, it absorbs capital, some economic structures have more physical capital, and some economic structures have more virtual capital; Some economic structures have more technical elements, while others have more traditional elements. The actual deviation of economic structure in absorbing resources will inevitably affect the direction of economic growth, such as turning to real economy or virtual economy, promoting the all-round growth of various industries, or trying to promote the development of a certain industry. Due to the influence of the basic conditions of economic structure, the economic structure of Hong Kong in different periods has always shown the characteristics of giving and taking, which also makes the economic growth in different stages show different orientations. For example, when the economic structure is mainly in the state of absorbing trade and related resources, Hong Kong's economy has shown the growth orientation of developing foreign trade. If the economic structure forms a dynamic mechanism to absorb resources in many ways, the trend of diversified development of social economy will become an undoubted necessity. Summarizing the process of Hong Kong's economic growth can lead people to draw the conclusion that the constant change of Hong Kong's economic growth direction is conditioned by the constant adjustment of the economic structure's preference for absorbing resources.

Sixth, the softening of economic structure will affect the convergence of economic growth. The economic structure will be softer and softer due to the gradual decrease of the proportion of production activities, and the development speed of this trend will also have an impact on the stability of economic growth. It's near. In the past ten years, due to the changes in internal and external demand conditions, the tertiary industry in Hong Kong has achieved rapid development. The proportion of service industry in GDP increased from 65,438+69.5% in 0980 to 65,438+85.2% in 097, and the industrial manufacturing industry decreased from 1.7% of GDP to 65,438. Such a lightweight economic structure is quite rare in other economic systems, which also causes the worry that the foundation on which the service industry depends is weakening day by day. Once such an economic structure is impacted and disturbed, it will be difficult for social and economic growth to return to the original growth path. Without the emergence of new growth factors or the formation of new growth drivers, growth will be difficult to reach its original stable state, or economic activities will not automatically converge to its stable state and stable growth path. The "1997" financial turmoil was actually a test of this economic structure, from which the defects of this economic structure were also found. We should recognize Hong Kong.

Go through a long and painful structural adjustment.

Three. Factors Affecting the Changes of Hong Kong's Economic Structure

As can be seen from the above analysis, economic structure plays a role in many aspects of economic growth. So what factors will affect the economic structure itself? To sum up, the following factors have contributed to the post-war economic restructuring in Hong Kong:

1. Social pension resources will have an impact on the economic structure of Hong Kong. Endowed resources are an important basic condition for the formation of social and economic structure, and the economic structure of a society basically depends on the combination of natural resources and other factors. For example, some areas are rich in mineral resources, and this area often forms an industrial structure dominated by mineral production and processing; Some areas are rich in animal husbandry resources, and most of them will devote themselves to developing various industries based on animal husbandry. Hong Kong is a region with very thin natural resources, limited land and lack of mineral deposits, which determines that the primary industry in Hong Kong can only be in an extremely weak state and gradually die out. Due to the limitation of natural resources, Hong Kong's economic structure can only be shaped as an "underdeveloped" type. However, Hong Kong has a natural harbor, which provides a prerequisite for the development of all kinds of trade, so that trade activities have always been an important part of Hong Kong's economic structure. At the same time, Hong Kong is a place where Chinese and Western cultures meet. Both Chinese and English are very common. Different styles of management are easy to survive and develop here, and various sources of capital are easy to meet and merge here. Society has good conditions for easily absorbing labor and capital, so labor-intensive industries and capital-intensive industries have been fully developed here. For example, from World War II to 1970s, Hong Kong was rich in labor resources, especially manufacturing, so trade and manufacturing accounted for a large proportion in Hong Kong's economic structure at this stage. Later, social capital resources became sufficient, and Hong Kong's financial services industry naturally advanced by leaps and bounds, and its share in the economic structure was bound to increase day by day.

2. Geographical advantages affect the economic structure of Hong Kong. Evaluating whether a region has certain advantages in geographical position can be considered from two aspects: time zone, location and traffic conditions. Whether the region has advantages in these aspects will naturally affect its economic structure. In terms of time zone, Hong Kong is at the transit point of the time difference between new york and London, and it is an important link in the round-the-clock operation of various global capital markets, thus giving Hong Kong an important meteorological condition to become an international financial center. Judging from the location conditions, if Hong Kong is the center and the flight time is the radius, more than half of the world's population is concentrated within the five-hour flight range around Hong Kong, which is quite close to those industrialized countries, which will undoubtedly help Hong Kong become an important distribution center for international goods, capital, technology, information and labor mobility. At the same time, Hong Kong has an irreplaceable and important shipping position in global trade, and behind it is China, which accounts for15 of the global population and has an increasing political and economic status in the world. Hong Kong is an important window and bridge between the East, the potential largest market, and the external economic world, which of course provides Hong Kong with unique geographical conditions in promoting and promoting the flow of various factors, and makes Hong Kong form a clear role orientation in international economic activities, thus deriving an emerging economy. The traffic conditions in Hong Kong are quite excellent and perfect. No matter the port, airport or communication, it can be said to be first-class, which will undoubtedly have an impact on Hong Kong's economic structure.

3. Demand factors affect the changes of Hong Kong's economic structure. Demand is the fundamental driving force of economic growth, and any economic activity in modern society is carried out around social demand. The changing orientation of social demand is the most basic driving force of social resource allocation, and the gradual upgrading of social economic structure is determined by the continuous improvement of social demand level. For Hong Kong's economic system with a high degree of opening to the outside world, the formation and change of its economic structure is the result of the interaction between internal demand and external demand. From the perspective of internal demand in Hong Kong, with the improvement of social income level and the gradual change of people's lifestyle, people's consumption expenditure structure is also changing accordingly. In the 1960s, food, beverages, tobacco and household management expenses accounted for a large proportion of consumption expenditure. After more than 30 years of development, people's demands for personal care, medical care, transportation and communication, entertainment and consumption have increased rapidly, which will inevitably bring about changes in the economic structure. For another example, with the formation and development of urban economic model, Hong Kong is required to establish close ties with the world, thus promoting the development of Hong Kong's communications industry. The communication tools in Hong Kong are constantly updated, and Hong Kong has become the region with the longest international call per capita. Nearly half of the population owns mobile phones, so the proportion of telecom industry in the economic structure is increasing day by day. From the perspective of external demand, in the past few decades, the economy in the Asia-Pacific region has developed vigorously and the demand is strong, which has promoted the development of Hong Kong's foreign trade and service trade. For example, Hong Kong's foreign trade volume has reached HK$ 3,075.4 billion, which is 1.29 times higher than the GDP. In terms of service trade, including international transportation, transnational banking, international financing and other financial services, international insurance and reinsurance, international information processing, international consulting, international telecommunication services, advertising, design and accounting management services, during the decade from 1987 to 1996, its annual export growth reached 16%. It goes without saying that this increase in external demand will naturally affect the changes in Hong Kong's economic structure.

4. Supply factors also affect the economic structure of Hong Kong. In fact, the economic operation of the whole society involves nothing more than supply and demand. Therefore, it is natural that supply has an impact on the economic structure. For example, due to the high input cost or the inability to form a scale, or the exhaustion of resources, the proportion of Hong Kong's agriculture in Hong Kong's GDP dropped from 3-4% in the 1950s to 0.2% after the 1980s, and the mining industry still accounted for a weak 0.2% of GDP in the 1960s, but it completely disappeared in the 1990s due to the exhaustion of resources. For another example, Hong Kong is sparsely populated, and the developed land resources available for commercial use are relatively insufficient. Therefore, the real estate industry has always been in a pivotal position in the economic structure of Hong Kong, and it has almost become a symbol of the rise and fall of Hong Kong. For example, the total amount and structure of labor supply in different periods will be different. If the economic growth in a certain period is mainly driven by labor supply, then the economic structure in this period should be mainly labor-intensive components. If the labor supply cannot meet the social demand in a certain period of time, it will inevitably lead to some problems of underdeveloped industries. Similarly, the change of capital supply flow direction will inevitably lead to the change of social and economic structure.

5. The development level of social productive forces affects the economic structure of Hong Kong. Social and economic development is always based on the development of social productive forces, and how a social and economic structure is also affected by the development level of social productive forces. In the final analysis, social industrial structure, product structure, technical structure, enterprise organization form and social division of labor are all affected by the structural state of social productive forces, which are the fundamental force to promote the upgrading of social economic structure. Since the war, the transformation of Hong Kong's economic structure has actually been driven by the improvement of social productive forces. The continuous emergence of emerging industries in Hong Kong, the continuous improvement of social production efficiency, the increasingly detailed social division of labor, the increasing economic components and the increasingly advanced industrial structure are closely related to the technological progress of Hong Kong society and the improvement of people's scientific and cultural quality.

6. Government policies have an impact on the economic structure of Hong Kong. There is no doubt that government policies will affect economic development. Even in Hong Kong, where the government pursues "positive non-interventionism", government policies will have an impact on the changes in social and economic structure. In Hong Kong, the government influences Hong Kong's economic activities through free economic policies, fiscal policies, land policies and restrictive policies on certain industries. Judging from the basic economic policy, the Hong Kong government takes the liberal economic thought as the philosophical basis of policy formulation, and implements the leading policy of maximum support and minimum intervention for economic activities, which releases the effectiveness of social and economic activities to a higher degree. In terms of fiscal policy, its revenue policy insists on: (1) maintaining a simple and clear tax system with low tax rate; (2) make the government have enough income to meet the known expenditure commitments; (3) Maintain a strict "user pays" system to determine various charges. With a view to keeping the tax rate low; (4) Maintain sufficient financial reserves to cope with unforeseen circumstances in the future; (5) Combating tax evasion; (6) Provide preferential treatment in the areas with the greatest demand. In terms of fiscal expenditure policy, the Hong Kong Government adheres to the following principles: (65,438+0) Live within our means; (2) controlling the scale and growth rate of public expenditure; (3) provide a good environment to maintain a small and efficient public sector; (4) The form of public sector expenditure must reflect the government's administrative priorities. Obviously, this has a positive effect on maintaining the balance between the public sector and the private sector and improving the efficiency of these two sectors, which will also have a positive impact on the transformation of the economic structure. Of course, the Hong Kong government also influences economic activities through the construction, funding, management and operation of some public utilities, such as postal services, water supply, railways, underground railways, tunnels, education, housing and other basic social services, and ensures that these departments maintain a certain efficiency through policies and legislation, such as corporatization and privatization. In addition, the Hong Kong government also takes advantage of its controlling position in the supply of land resources. Adjust the mode and quantity of land supply according to market changes, and exert a purposeful influence on Hong Kong's economic life. At the same time, in the process of cultivating and protecting the rise and development of some core industries and emerging industries, the Hong Kong government also pays more attention to formulating and implementing active and pragmatic industrial policies, and appropriately restricts industries so that these industries can play their due roles in economic growth, such as banking. All this will definitely have an impact on the economic structure.

7. The size of Hong Kong's own cities has an impact on the economic structure. Different city sizes will bring different degrees of factor occupation, different internal demands and different degrees of contact with the outside world. Big cities will inevitably occupy more resources and need the society to provide a higher level of professional services and establish closer ties with the outside world. With the gradual increase of the city scale in Hong Kong, more and more elements flow into this society and are efficiently allocated and used. With the increasing investment in social infrastructure, the demand for service industry is becoming more and more diversified. Obviously, these will inevitably bring about changes in the economic structure.

8. The impact of the business environment on the economic structure of Hong Kong. Business environment can include many aspects, such as government efficiency, social atmosphere, legal system, business culture, public security, business cost, ecological environment and so on. Any change in one aspect may lead to the inflow or outflow of some resources, so it will inevitably have an impact on the economic structure. For example, a while ago, some multinational companies complained that the environmental pollution in Hong Kong is getting more and more serious, saying that if this phenomenon continues, not only employees will be sent to work in Hong Kong, but even their companies will leave Hong Kong.