The new energy vehicle policy vane has come, and the change of this development plan is worthy of attention!

The development plan of new energy automobile industry (202 1-2035) (draft for comment) has been released since June+February last year, and the changes of international and domestic environment in the past year are bound to make this plan adjust with the times. A year later, the official draft of the plan was released, and the changes in expression were worth pondering.

1October 2 165438 "New Energy Automobile Industry Development Plan (202 1-2035)" was officially released. This is the second time that China has expressed its position on new energy vehicles at the global level since the release of the Industrial Development Plan for Energy Saving and New Energy Vehicles (20 12-2020) in 20/2.

In the nearly one year from the exposure draft to the official draft, the global COVID-19 epidemic spread, anti-globalization unilateralism rose, and a new round of scientific and technological revolution and industrial transformation deepened. At this time, as a new energy automobile industry closely related to the national economy and people's livelihood, what kind of mission should it carry in the new pattern?

Tong Jiren's Auto Review compares the difference between the official draft and the draft for comment, from which we can see the country's vision and key tasks for new energy vehicles and the adjustment under the current new situation.

Every car company has its own understanding of the "new four modernizations" of cars, but the most talked about is "electrification, networking, intelligence and enjoyment". In the consultation draft of the plan, there is also a statement that "electrification, networking, intelligence and enjoyment are becoming the development trend and trend of the automobile industry".

However, in the official draft, this expression was revised as "electrification, networking and intelligence have become the development trend and trend of the automobile industry", and the enjoyment of * * * was eliminated.

Compared with the retained "three-oriented" technology, * * * enjoyment is more like a business model, which has little to do with the technological progress of new energy vehicles. Because of this, there are more non-technical factors in implementing * * *, which is not the development direction of new energy vehicles. This time, not mentioning the enjoyment of * * * in the planning of new energy automobile industry is also a manifestation of policy discouragement and support.

In contrast, in the opening background of the official draft of the plan, the newly added expression of "the core technology innovation ability is not strong, the quality assurance system needs to be improved, the infrastructure construction is still lagging behind, and the industrial ecology is not perfect" just reflects that in this year, with the rapid development of new car-making forces such as Tesla, local traditional car companies have declined in a large area in the new energy field, and major joint venture car companies are eager to try, and they have a clearer understanding of the pattern of the new energy industry at the planning level.

In the official draft plan, the most interesting figures are about development goals. Compared with the exposure draft, the overall trend is to reduce, relax and lower the development goals.

First, the proportion of new energy vehicle sales to total vehicle sales in 2025 will be reduced from 25% in the draft for comments to 20%. In the planning of 20 12-2020, it is proposed to realize the annual production capacity of 2 million new energy vehicles in 2020. Judging from the current planned production capacity, it is not a big problem to achieve this goal.

However, in 20 19, China actually sold12.06 million new energy vehicles, down 4.0% year-on-year. In 2020, affected by the epidemic situation and market environment, it is difficult for sales to increase by leaps and bounds. From the trend, the growth of new energy vehicles in China can no longer rely on blindly expanding production capacity and launching new cars, but has entered a new stage of high-quality development. At this time, appropriately lowering the target is also a more pragmatic embodiment of policy planning after a year of research and judgment.

In addition, the technical objectives have also been adjusted. In the goal of 2025, the average power consumption target of new electric passenger cars will be relaxed from11.0 kwh100 km to 12.0kWh/ 100km, and 30% of the sales of conditionally self-driving intelligent networked cars will be deleted. The average fuel consumption of passenger cars has dropped to 4.0L/ 100km202 1, and the proportion of new energy vehicles in public transport, rental and logistics distribution vehicles has been increased from all to no less than 80% in the national ecological civilization experimental zone and key areas for air pollution prevention and control. The target for 2030 has also been completely deleted.

It is not difficult to see that in the development planning of new energy vehicles, the goal of autonomous driving is more cautious in expression. At the same time, with the development of autonomous driving technology, the original standard L 1-L5 defined by SAE has shown its limitations. At present, car companies are more in favor of defining functions according to actual usage scenarios, rather than simply and rudely using L to distinguish between high and low.

Thirdly, the formal draft plan adds a qualitative vision of charging and replacing electricity services in the expression of technical objectives, which echoes the opening "Infrastructure construction is still lagging behind".

In the draft plan, there is almost no content about fuel cells in the description of technical capabilities. However, in the formal planning, it added "breaking through the supporting technologies for hydrogen fuel cell vehicles", emphasized "improving the research and development capabilities of basic key technologies, advanced basic processes, basic core components and key basic materials", and added clear language such as "overcoming supporting technologies for hydrogen fuel cell vehicles such as hydrogen storage and transportation, hydrogen refueling stations and on-board hydrogen storage".

During the development of China's new energy automobile industry for more than ten years, fuel cell vehicles have experienced ups and downs with unclear goals. However, Japan and South Korea have made great progress in the field of fuel cells in recent ten years, and have a tendency to dominate potential new markets. In this new energy vehicle planning, refocusing on fuel cell vehicles is actually a concrete implementation of the basic principle of "encouraging the parallel development of various technical routes and supporting various subjects to jointly overcome key core technologies". At the same time, it also clarifies the idea that the government will hand over the dominance of the technical route to the market.

In the formal draft of the plan, there are several expressions that are not involved in the draft for comments. For example, on the technical level, we should increase the safety technical level of battery management, charging connection and structural design, emphasize the construction of efficient recycling system of power batteries, increase the level of intelligent manufacturing and strengthen quality and safety guarantee. This reflects that in the high-quality development stage of new energy vehicles, safety issues have received more attention.

At the level of market supervision, it has especially increased "to curb the chaos of blindly launching new energy automobile manufacturing projects, establish and improve the exit mechanism of zombie enterprises, and strengthen supervision and inspection of the maintenance of enterprise access conditions". This is also a statement that in recent years, new energy automobile enterprises have eliminated on a large scale, redundant construction and wasted resources.

In addition, in terms of infrastructure, the "charging network with slow charging as the mainstay and emergency quick charging as the supplement" in the draft for comments is revised to "intelligent and orderly charging service mode with slow charging as the mainstay and emergency quick charging as the supplement, and expressway and urban and rural public charging networks with moderate lead, quick charging as the mainstay and slow charging as the supplement". The refinement of the scene also makes the direction of infrastructure-related participants more clear.

It is worth noting that after the epidemic in 2020, the central government put forward a "new development pattern with domestic large circulation as the main body and domestic and international dual circulation promoting each other". In the official draft of the new energy automobile industry planning, the international operation, international exchange and cooperation, standard coordination, international mutual recognition and other related contents of the new energy automobile industry have also been greatly deleted. The expression of "breaking through the technology of key components" was revised as "improving the industrial basic ability" and "cultivating ecological enterprises" was revised as "supporting the development of ecological enterprises".

All these show that in the new stage of the development of new energy automobile industry, quantity and scale are not the most concerned things. Accordingly, the quality, health and coordination of development are the top priorities of the new energy automobile industry.

From 20 12 to accelerate the transformation and upgrading of automobile industry, cultivate new economic growth points and international competitive advantages, and promote the high-quality development of new energy automobile industry and accelerate the construction of automobile power by 2020. As an engine to promote sustained economic growth, new energy vehicles are playing an increasingly important role in the national strategy.

Gone are the days when everyone aimed at subsidies. In the new era, the significance of new energy vehicles is not only how much carbon dioxide is emitted less, how much oil resources are saved, but also the only way to truly make China's cars grow from big to strong.

This article comes from car home, the author of the car manufacturer, and does not represent car home's position.