17 years old, 1 million units sold, $120 billion market cap, disrupting the century-old auto industry

Yeah, that's what Tesla, under Elon?Musk, has done in its 17 years of existence.

Beijing time on March 10, Tesla?CEO?Elon?Musk announced that the one millionth Tesla electric car officially rolled off the production line.

From October 2008, when the first mass-produced model Roadster was delivered off the production line in bulk, to the one millionth Tesla electric car off the production line, a full 12 years have passed. The next million units are expected to take no more than 18 months.

A million units, for many traditional car companies, that could be just a few months of production. But for Tesla, it's a fresh start. With the capacity of the Chinese factory increasing and the German factory about to start construction, Tesla's production capacity will gradually increase, and the pressure Tesla puts on traditional car companies will be unprecedented.

The emergence of Tesla has subverted the automotive industry in four major ways: 1) it has revolutionized the electronic and electrical architecture of automobiles; 2) it has constructed a brand new supply chain of intelligent Internet-connected electric vehicles; 3) it has established a direct sales model for the automotive industry; and 4) it has provided an unprecedented intelligent user experience. The emergence of a new order means a new pattern of interests.

All this has attracted imitation from new car-making forces and caused traditional car companies to catch up. The imitators hope to create another Tesla; the pursuers hope not to be mercilessly eliminated by the market! The new wave of car-making in China and the United States, especially in China, has given birth to a wave of new car-making forces as well as hundreds of billions of dollars of investment; traditional car companies have announced that they will invest hundreds of billions of dollars to catch up with Tesla.

In the 2020s, a century of automobile industry, the wave of electrification and intelligentization will sweep the whole industry and reconstruct the whole industry. As the pioneer and popularizer of smart grid electric cars, Tesla is also the biggest profiteer in this market, with 17 years of existence, 1 million units sold, a market capitalization of $120 billion, and advocates (and, of course, detractors) all over the world.

But Tesla still has two crises to hurdle (the tech company's valuation and AutoPilot's massive lawsuit problem) and one market it must take down - China.

Shanghai Lingang factory, Tesla's first overseas factory, took less than 12 months from the start of construction to mass production off the production line, and the factory, which has set numerous records, is now gradually ramping up its production capacity to meet the demand for Teslas in China.

While Tesla has never announced the number of orders for its homegrown Model?3, the book-to-delivery time is staggering, possibly reaching the 100,000-unit level. On the production end, the Gigafactory?3 currently operates on a single shift with a weekly capacity of 2,000 units, and will be operating on two shifts this month, boosting its capacity to 3,500 units, with the ultimate capacity target for the first phase of the factory at 150,000 units per year.

Tesla's Shanghai Lingang factory, from September 2018 the first body-in-white rolled off the production line, officially started production in October, and delivered the first batch of cars in December. From September 2018, Tesla's stock price also started a new round of rise from $200 out of the gate, breaking through a new all-time high of $389 in December 2019, and reaching a new all-time high of $968.99 by February 2020.

In addition to Tesla's stable sales in the U.S. market, the commissioning of the Chinese factory has provided Tesla with new market expectations, and Tesla's stock price has thus been given the impetus to rise, which is overlaid on the fact that shorts are being fully forced to short, resulting in this wave of Tesla's rise. Tesla, also became a "Chinese stock".

Tesla has become a Chinese stock, there are the following two reasons:

One, Tesla's demand in the Chinese market, before the Shanghai factory has not been put into production, the Chinese market has also become Tesla's first overseas market, is the United States outside of the largest Tesla's largest market;

The second, the Shanghai factory's extremely fast production, from the start of the construction of the first batch of vehicles delivered in less than 12 months, exceeding expectations;

The second, Shanghai factory's extremely fast production, from the construction of the first batch of vehicles delivered, less than 12 months

In terms of the arrangement of models, with the Model?Y starting delivery in the US in Q1 2020, its domestic production is also proceeding in an orderly manner. Tesla's Chinese factory, too, will usher in its second domestically produced model, one that Musk has high hopes for, with the hope that its annual sales could reach 500,000 to 1 million units.

In all likelihood, production of the domestic Model?Y will start in Q4 2020, with deliveries beginning in 2021, which will likely be placed in the Gigafactory?3's Phase II factory for production, which is currently in full swing, along with supporting parts factories and battery factories.

Next, it can be expected that in terms of production and delivery, Tesla will still make history, in which the Chinese factory and the Chinese market will play the most important role, providing the strongest growth momentum for Tesla. The Chinese stock, Tesla, will be more linked to the Chinese market.

Will it be smooth sailing for Tesla? Apparently not.

02?Two thresholds? Are two crises?

International oil prices in Beijing time on March 9 hit more than 30% of the one-day drop record, oil prices continue to go down, but also for the development of global new energy vehicles, a layer of shadow. For Tesla to see, not only in this, more important is to face two major crises: valuation system and AutoPilot potential large-scale litigation issues.

Valuation system: technology company Or manufacturing enterprise?

When the stock price reached a peak of $968.99, Tesla became the world's second-highest market capitalization after Toyota, with a market value of more than $178 billion, more than the total market value of the three largest U.S. car companies, but Tesla's cumulative deliveries so far have been only 1 million units, which is not comparable to the traditional car companies that have been selling millions of cars a year at any given time.

From the point of view of profits, but also Tesla so far, only a few quarters are profitable, has not yet realized annual profits, which is often tens of billions of dollars in profits with traditional car companies, is also not comparable. So why does Tesla still have a market capitalization of more than $120 billion?

Obviously, it's the valuation of a tech company. Yes, this is the first problem Tesla is currently facing, and the most important reason why Tesla is being shorted by the global short sellers, and no financial modeling can prove that the current Tesla is worth the money?

Tesla of course has its own advantages, including mastery of core technologies (such as the new automotive electronic and electrical architecture, sustainable upgraded AutoPilot, sustainable upgraded Telematics), mastery of the direct sales system of automobile sales, mastery of the charging network all over the world, mastery of the pure electric car-solar roof-electricity storage system that can subvert the current energy system, the new energy system. The new energy system.

At present, AutoPilot in the domestic price of 56,000 yuan, in the domestic Model?3 of the overall price accounted for nearly 20% of the Model?3 core price component, a HardWare?3.0 + some sensors, is not worth so much money, the price of this, more is the price of the software, relying on the software to make money, the car companies previously was I don't dare to think, more can't do, Tesla did it.

As for the new energy system that can overturn the current energy system, such as the pure electric car-solar roof-storage system, it needs more time to prove its market potential and scale.

AutoPilot's Massive Lawsuit Crisis

AutoPilot, which was once advertised by Tesla as an autopilot driving feature, but, eventually, in October 2018, Tesla pulled the word autopilot from its official website because, AutoPilot caused multiple accidents and injuries around the world.

It's worth mentioning that both Tesla officials and Elon?Musk are touting Tesla's Autopilot feature, but, in Tesla's official manual and website, it still requires owners to stay focused and ready to take over the vehicle at any time when turning on the AutoPilot feature, so Tesla's fatal AutoPilot accident in reason why Tesla is still avoiding legal responsibility after the fatal AutoPilot accident.

Data shows that the frequency of Tesla's AutoPilot accidents is declining exponentially, but there is still a question mark over whether AutoPilot can improve from the current L2 level to the L4 level that Elon Musk is talking about, which is the autopilot function advertised by the FSD chip in the current Hardware 3.0 assembly. is a huge question mark. And, the crisis of massive lawsuits, ever present.

Only across the crisis of the possible shift in the valuation system, as well as to deal with the potential risk of large-scale litigation AutoPilot, Tesla may truly become the Apple of the automotive industry. A trillion-dollar market capitalization, too, is possible!

In any case, with the efforts of Elon?Musk and Tesla, the electrification and intelligence of cars has become an irreversible trend. Humans will also get a better experience, higher efficiency, more safety and lower cost of traveling services in this development trend.

This article comes from the author of Auto Home Car Family, and does not represent the viewpoint position of Auto Home.